Mini 2243: Chromatic Ascension || Game Over!

[Knight Rose]

Wait my bad lol I did the math wrong I thijk

[Knight Rose]

Wait maybe it’s right actually

[The Rainbow Knight]

@ Chart

The way I think about it, I'd rather eliminate a pair that has a chance of being S/S rather than a pair that can only be T/S at best.

For me you/beige both have scum equity whereas I can only get to T/S in L/Crimson and Indigo/Rose.

[Knight Daffodil]

I am building in uncertainty. I may be wrong. If you are 20% likely to be scum, Beige is 70%, Lavender is 80% and Crimson is 0%, then it's better to elim Beige/you even if Lavender were my #1 pick.

That’s not how any of that works. I think you’re trying to use percentages to buddy me up but in that scenario you elim Lavender, unless you believe 2-1-0 is more likely. The scenario you presented only works if you believe that. However you seem way too tunnelvisiony. Let’s say you’re right Beige is scum: I flip town. Then there is a minimum one other scum team. (In that world I know there is two). This is why you always elim your number one pick for scum regardless of the alignment of the other player. If you just rip off the bandaid and assume you will end up elimming the partner town it goes better.

You also dodged my experiment why?

I think an S-S pair existing is possible.

I am also starting to think you're determined to have a problem with me if you're going to take issue with something as inconsequential as a number I pulled out of my ass.

Because I'm posting from class, but here's your experiment: Beige, you, Lavender, Rose.

[Knight Chartreuse]

Wait maybe it’s right actually

The main issue isn’t the math. It’s 70 is less than 80 so Daffodil should be pushing Lavender and they aren’t. The entire system is fake because they’re likely full of shit. You don’t have to be good at math to realize if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

[The Rainbow Knight]

if Indigo/Rose are S/S - it doesn't make sense for Rose to have wanted to pair with Magenta rather than Indigo.

I think Crimson is very townie from dayplay and the way he is thinking about the game and lastpairing outside of his own pair.

So that leaves You/Beige as the only pair that could actually be S/S here.

[Knight Chartreuse]

@ Chart

The way I think about it, I'd rather eliminate a pair that has a chance of being S/S rather than a pair that can only be T/S at best.

For me you/beige both have scum equity whereas I can only get to T/S in L/Crimson and Indigo/Rose.

And I think that’s a scummy/antitown way to play. If you’re really sure a player is scum elim them. And yet you haven’t explained how I have scum equity and you’re the second person to mysteriously say that. Interesting. *thought emoji here*

[Knight Daffodil]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

[Knight Chartreuse]

if Indigo/Rose are S/S - it doesn't make sense for Rose to have wanted to pair with Magenta rather than Indigo.

I think Crimson is very townie from dayplay and the way he is thinking about the game and lastpairing outside of his own pair.

So that leaves You/Beige as the only pair that could actually be S/S here.

So you’re hunting for something that may not exist and saying let’s elim there? What?

[The Rainbow Knight]

I'm more concerned about limiting the damage in case we are in an S/S world where we have 50% chance of losing this game.

[Knight Chartreuse]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

Then fix it. You should be hunting for scum and aiming to flip scum.

If their partner is town or scum that will give credence to SvS or SvT.

[The Rainbow Knight]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

[Knight Chartreuse]

I'm more concerned about limiting the damage in case we are in an S/S world where we have 50% chance of losing this game.

Then hunt scum. Find the scum. Once you find the scum poke others and see how they feel about it. This helps you A> See if your read is right and B> What resistances form.

People will naturally resist a scum elim. It will happen.

[Knight Chartreuse]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

Stop this pessimistic bullshit.

[The Rainbow Knight]

do you have a strong reason to think you are T/T with Beige right now?

[Knight Chartreuse]

Why is Crimson off the table for you?

I think let’s run an experiment:

Who is on the table for each player? No explanations just answer it. I have a theory.

I expect everyone to answer this question.

This also needs an answer from everyone.

This should be very simple.

Eg I would elim in palletes 1,2,3,4.

That’s it. No words just answer it.

[The Rainbow Knight]

I would elim Chart/Beige rn

[Knight Chartreuse]

do you have a strong reason to think you are T/T with Beige right now?

No I don’t. But the more people sus without explanation and no one pushes back I do. And the reasoning is flawed. If the reasoning was good reasoning and the experiment pans out I would be the first to do a vote:Leave

But a lot of people dropped susses on Beige in a time zone they didn’t seem to post in

[Knight Chartreuse]

I would elim Chart/Beige rn

And…any other palettes? Answer the question in its entirety.

[Knight Beige]

Why is Crimson off the table for you?

I think let’s run an experiment:

Who is on the table for each player? No explanations just answer it. I have a theory.

Rose, Indigo, Daffodil, Crimson, Chartreuse

[Knight Daffodil]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

Then fix it. You should be hunting for scum and aiming to flip scum.

Oh, thanks! I had no idea! Wow, I should just try harder and I'll magically know exactly who is scum!

[Knight Daffodil]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

Stop this pessimistic bullshit.

How about actually we play however we damn well feel like?

[Knight Chartreuse]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

Then fix it. You should be hunting for scum and aiming to flip scum.

Oh, thanks! I had no idea! Wow, I should just try harder and I'll magically know exactly who is scum!

Yes. Then do it. Rather than being snarky with me, scumhunt if you’re town. I don’t see evidence of it. You’re deliberately trying to antagonize me and piss me off.

[Knight Chartreuse]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

Stop this pessimistic bullshit.

How about actually we play however we damn well feel like?

Sorry I don’t let scumreads push a bad pessimistic agenda “whoa is me let’s not lose” versus “Hey look most of the time we hit scum let’s get a scumread”.

[Knight Daffodil]

I'm less likely to scumhunt while you're ordering me around and talking down to me. So kindly piss off with that.