Mini 2243: Chromatic Ascension || Game Over!

[Knight Indigo]

I am building in uncertainty. I may be wrong. If you are 20% likely to be scum, Beige is 70%, Lavender is 80% and Crimson is 0%, then it's better to elim Beige/you even if Lavender were my #1 pick.

The crux for me is that if scum is in both Chartreuse/Beige and Crimson/Lavender, Crimson is pretty much super obvtown and I want him to stay in the game as long as possible.

[Knight Indigo]

I am building in uncertainty. I may be wrong. If you are 20% likely to be scum, Beige is 70%, Lavender is 80% and Crimson is 0%, then it's better to elim Beige/you even if Lavender were my #1 pick.

I’m pretty sure this isn’t the move. If we define a failure as a double town elim, then there’s actually a higher chance to fail elimming Beige/Chartruese than Lavender pair. I’m aware that you probably randomly chose your numbers. But if your overall point is that you’d rather take out two moderately scummy people over one strongly scummy person, then I’d probably disagree. If I completely missed ur point then my bad. Actual content soon tm

But we need to keep Crimson, that’s the main reasoning for me. I value his input.

[Knight Indigo]

@ Chart

The way I think about it, I'd rather eliminate a pair that has a chance of being S/S rather than a pair that can only be T/S at best.

For me you/beige both have scum equity whereas I can only get to T/S in L/Crimson and Indigo/Rose.

The way I see it is that is Beige/Chartreuse is SvS, that probably means that you, Daffodil, Rose are all town and if that’s the case, then it would make things alot easier to get confirmation on this one way or another.

[Knight Chartreuse]

@ Chart

The way I think about it, I'd rather eliminate a pair that has a chance of being S/S rather than a pair that can only be T/S at best.

For me you/beige both have scum equity whereas I can only get to T/S in L/Crimson and Indigo/Rose.

The way I see it is that is Beige/Chartreuse is SvS, that probably means that you, Daffodil, Rose are all town and if that’s the case, then it would make things alot easier to get confirmation on this one way or another.

When I flip town what changes about your reads?

[Knight Crimson]

If Lavender and I leave the dance second-to-last, that does not affect the outcome, does it?

We are in agreement Lav and I am not the S/S pair. Therefore, we are either T/T in the case there is a S/S skulking around, or we're one of the many T/S's

So in other words, the setup may look like this:

Knight Indigo

-

Knight Rose

Knight Crimson

-

Knight Lavender

Knight Chartreuse

-

Knight Beige

Knight Daffodil

-

The Rainbow Knight

Or it may look like this:

Knight Indigo

-

Knight Rose

Knight Crimson

-

Knight Lavender

Knight Chartreuse

-

Knight Beige

Knight Daffodil

-

The Rainbow Knight

Let's say that we exited the dance in order from bottom to top. Are there any issues if Lav and I leave second to last?

I say this because concerns of S/S are ever present and if there is S/S, I can verify it is not us.

My only lingering concern is that I'm not really sure Rose is town. I am pretty sure Indigo is.

[Knight Indigo]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

The main thing for me, is I feel extremely confident that Crimson is town and it’s important the keep his contribution in the game for as long as possible.

You and Rainbow are 100% right. Only way it makes sense to lim Lavender first is if I was sold on Chartreuse/Beige being T - T and if think the only possible T - T pairings are you/Daffodil and me/Rose. So perhaps Chartreuse is misunderstanding the math?

Beige’s AtE isn’t impressing me in the slightest and I’m starting to question if it’s being employed as a distraction.

[Knight Chartreuse]

if you’re really confident a player is scum you elim them.

I'm not really confident anyone is scum

The main thing for me, is I feel extremely confident that Crimson is town and it’s important the keep his contribution in the game for as long as possible.

You and Rainbow are 100% right. Only way it makes sense to lim Lavender first is if I was sold on Chartreuse/Beige being T - T and if think the only possible T - T pairings are you/Daffodil and me/Rose. So perhaps Chartreuse is misunderstanding the math?

Beige’s AtE isn’t impressing me in the slightest and I’m starting to question if it’s being employed as a distraction.

I am not. Lavender is scum.
One if not both of Daffodil and Rainbow has to be.
The remainder possible is Beige.

The only reason I don’t leave right now is I am scared of Daff+Rainbow and we lose.

[Knight Crimson]

I made Lav upset and now I'm sad

[Knight Chartreuse]

I don’t have the faith that the remaining Rose+Indigo/Crimson+Lavender teams elim Daff + Rainbow

[Knight Indigo]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

Stop this pessimistic bullshit.

We have completely diametrically opposed ways of viewing this. What you consider to be “pessimistic”, I see as sound logic.

If I was extremely confident on you!town - especially more than Crimson, I’d argue the converse but I don’t feel Beige’s AtE is genuine and reads fake to me.

[Knight Chartreuse]

The safer elim of Lavender is the one we mathematically should be doing but I think everyone is too stuck in their ways.

[Knight Chartreuse]

(A) if we are in 2-1-0-0 then the odds of losing today is 50%

(B) if we are in 1-1-1-0 then the odds of losing today is 25%

I would like to eliminate the pair that's most likely the 2 in (A) as that limits our odds of losing the best.

Stop this pessimistic bullshit.

We have completely diametrically opposed ways of viewing this. What you consider to be “pessimistic”, I see as sound logic.

If I was extremely confident on you!town - especially more than Crimson, I’d argue the converse but I don’t feel Beige’s AtE is genuine and reads fake to me.

That group to me is Daff+Rainbow. There is absolutely one scum there if not both.

[Knight Crimson]

Knight Indigo

- Knight Rose

Knight Crimson

- Knight Lavender

Knight Chartreuse

- Knight Beige
Knight Daffodil - The Rainbow Knight

Okay so this is what I've been thinking about. I think the bolded are town.

The only S/S that maybe exists in my mind is Rainbow/Daff. I think Rainbow/Daff leaves first or second so not really a big deal.

Now here's the scary team: Rose/Beige/Rainbow(or Daff). That would mean after Rainbow/Daff leave and Beige/Chart leave, it'd be down to Rose/Indigo and my team. And the winning decision would be for me to not leave. I'm scared as hell.

[Knight Chartreuse]

Knight Indigo

- Knight Rose

Knight Crimson

- Knight Lavender

Knight Chartreuse

- Knight Beige
Knight Daffodil - The Rainbow Knight

Okay so this is what I've been thinking about. I think the bolded are town.

The only S/S that maybe exists in my mind is Rainbow/Daff. I think Rainbow/Daff leaves first or second so not really a big deal.

Now here's the scary team: Rose/Beige/Rainbow(or Daff). That would mean after Rainbow/Daff leave and Beige/Chart leave, it'd be down to Rose/Indigo and my team. And the winning decision would be for me to not leave. I'm scared as hell.

Don’t worry I am very confident Lavender is scum.
Like I agree with your townreads.

I have a reaction test going to sort if Beige is scum and who with.

I want the scum to react to my heat map.

[Knight Crimson]

I'm currently praying for Daff/Rainbow SvS with Beige so I don't have to make the choice.

[Knight Indigo]

I would elim Chart/Beige rn

And…any other palettes? Answer the question in its entirety.

Why is Crimson off the table for you?

I think let’s run an experiment:

Who is on the table for each player? No explanations just answer it. I have a theory.

Rose, Indigo, Daffodil, Crimson, Chartreuse

Beige just made my decision for me. I was leaning that way anyway.

No one should have Chartreuse higher than Crimson and why am I scum, Beige?

If Beige flips scum, Lavender is very likely a buddy based on this post. Still on the fence about Chartreuse but this elim list reads to me like Beige/Lavender SvS. Beige wants to elim in the two pairs most likely to be T - T.

[Knight Chartreuse]

I'm currently praying for Daff/Rainbow SvS with Beige so I don't have to make the choice.

I am praying my reaction test works and I can see if leaving is the right move

[Knight Crimson]

Not necessarily, Beige could be with Rose and trying to play into the Xylo that needs me to townread Rose over Lavender.

[Knight Crimson]

Not necessarily, Beige could be with Rose and trying to play into the Xylo that needs me to townread Rose over Lavender.

(@Indigo)

Right now I think Daffodil/Rainbow should be making their way towards the exit.

[Knight Chartreuse]

Not necessarily, Beige could be with Rose and trying to play into the Xylo that needs me to townread Rose over Lavender.

I highly highly doubt Lavender makes that reads list as town.

If Beige is scum >> 1,1,1 is the game and it’s Beige, Lavender, and one of Daff+Knight
If Beige is town >> 2,1,0 with Lavender putting both wins up there. Difference would be whether you’re deep wolfing like I thought at start. I doubt it but Lav is very likely scum.

[Knight Chartreuse]

Not necessarily, Beige could be with Rose and trying to play into the Xylo that needs me to townread Rose over Lavender.

(@Indigo)

Right now I think Daffodil/Rainbow should be making their way towards the exit.

This is might thought as well but I want to see their reaction to the heat map to see if I am right.

Whole hypothesis test thing.

[Knight Crimson]

There were my reads during my reread over night two, independent of pairings:

{Chartreuse, Marigold, Rainbow, Crimson}

{Indigo, Daffodil}

{Beige, Seafoam}

{Rose}

The flip of a "middle to lower" pack T-T pair makes me think we're going full on mind games, as I mentioned before. I suspect we've got a S-S pair with a deepwolf paired to a non-deepwolf.


Now the currently living pairings with my original reads applied...

Knight Crimson - Knight Lavender

Knight Beige

-

Knight Chartreuse

Knight Daffodil

-

The Rainbow Knight

Knight Rose

-

Knight Indigo

I don't have enough scum in there.... If there's a S-S pairing, it pretty much has to be Rose-Indigo..... but with how the end of day zero went down, I'm not really sure that it's the case? If I take back the rainbow hood stuff I set aside, it is POSISBLE that rainbow-daffy are both extremely competent deep wolf players and that's why everything feels lopsided. Crimson is 50000000% town and the only way they die if by leaving the dance or we get voted, I am 100% firm that crimmy's town and never leaving. I had flashes of paranoia but then I re-read the day one ISO.

Rainbow.... what made you choose to neighborize me exactly?

Do people think that rainbow could have genuinely missed the reads I sent her?

Oh there’s the rainbow hood.

And there’s not a reason Lavender could have asked Rainbow in the hood?

I think Lavender is just exhausted newb scum or someone who doesn’t like scum. So they put the team that absolutely wins as red and one piggyback as maybe.

Like maybe I can’t word good or something but if I had a day vig I would shoot Lavender

Talk to me about this a little bit. You mention Lav's reads ping you hard. As Lav's partner, I can tell you she does not give me the impression she is newbscum. Definitely not.

I'm a little unsure what your exact point about the readslist is.

[Knight Chartreuse]

I would elim Chart/Beige rn

And…any other palettes? Answer the question in its entirety.

Why is Crimson off the table for you?

I think let’s run an experiment:

Who is on the table for each player? No explanations just answer it. I have a theory.

Rose, Indigo, Daffodil, Crimson, Chartreuse

Beige just made my decision for me. I was leaning that way anyway.

No one should have Chartreuse higher than Crimson and why am I scum, Beige?

If Beige flips scum, Lavender is very likely a buddy based on this post. Still on the fence about Chartreuse but this elim list reads to me like Beige/Lavender SvS. Beige wants to elim in the two pairs most likely to be T - T.

Beige also said they wouldn’t elim Rainbow in that post. Meaning Rainbow likely buddy and Daffodil is pocketed by their negativity. Makes sense for the lavender hood. Rainbow didn’t want another hood to be town in.

[Knight Chartreuse]

There were my reads during my reread over night two, independent of pairings:

{Chartreuse, Marigold, Rainbow, Crimson}

{Indigo, Daffodil}

{Beige, Seafoam}

{Rose}

The flip of a "middle to lower" pack T-T pair makes me think we're going full on mind games, as I mentioned before. I suspect we've got a S-S pair with a deepwolf paired to a non-deepwolf.


Now the currently living pairings with my original reads applied...

Knight Crimson - Knight Lavender

Knight Beige

-

Knight Chartreuse

Knight Daffodil

-

The Rainbow Knight

Knight Rose

-

Knight Indigo

I don't have enough scum in there.... If there's a S-S pairing, it pretty much has to be Rose-Indigo..... but with how the end of day zero went down, I'm not really sure that it's the case? If I take back the rainbow hood stuff I set aside, it is POSISBLE that rainbow-daffy are both extremely competent deep wolf players and that's why everything feels lopsided. Crimson is 50000000% town and the only way they die if by leaving the dance or we get voted, I am 100% firm that crimmy's town and never leaving. I had flashes of paranoia but then I re-read the day one ISO.

Rainbow.... what made you choose to neighborize me exactly?

Do people think that rainbow could have genuinely missed the reads I sent her?

Oh there’s the rainbow hood.

And there’s not a reason Lavender could have asked Rainbow in the hood?

I think Lavender is just exhausted newb scum or someone who doesn’t like scum. So they put the team that absolutely wins as red and one piggyback as maybe.

Like maybe I can’t word good or something but if I had a day vig I would shoot Lavender

Talk to me about this a little bit. You mention Lav's reads ping you hard. As Lav's partner, I can tell you she does not give me the impression she is newbscum. Definitely not.

I'm a little unsure what your exact point about the readslist is.

I can’t until a certain player responds sorry. It ruins my reaction test. If they haven’t responded by 24 hours then I will.

[Knight Indigo]

There were my reads during my reread over night two, independent of pairings:

{Chartreuse, Marigold, Rainbow, Crimson}

{Indigo, Daffodil}

{Beige, Seafoam}

{Rose}

The flip of a "middle to lower" pack T-T pair makes me think we're going full on mind games, as I mentioned before. I suspect we've got a S-S pair with a deepwolf paired to a non-deepwolf.


Now the currently living pairings with my original reads applied...

Knight Crimson - Knight Lavender

Knight Beige

-

Knight Chartreuse

Knight Daffodil

-

The Rainbow Knight

Knight Rose

-

Knight Indigo

I don't have enough scum in there.... If there's a S-S pairing, it pretty much has to be Rose-Indigo..... but with how the end of day zero went down, I'm not really sure that it's the case? If I take back the rainbow hood stuff I set aside, it is POSISBLE that rainbow-daffy are both extremely competent deep wolf players and that's why everything feels lopsided. Crimson is 50000000% town and the only way they die if by leaving the dance or we get voted, I am 100% firm that crimmy's town and never leaving. I had flashes of paranoia but then I re-read the day one ISO.

Rainbow.... what made you choose to neighborize me exactly?

Do people think that rainbow could have genuinely missed the reads I sent her?

How is Rose your #1 sr? And Beige is orange-gold or something?

I would be extremely interested in explaining your srs on both me and Rose but especially me.

Rose has been really solvey ib our PT and when I asked why she hadn’t posted more in the main thread, she explained she was having internet issues.

At any rate, your readslist is still better than Beige’s - with the exception of having Beige as a null and Rose as red, so even if it weren’t for me possible SvS paranoia, I have real trouble believing Beige’s readslist is town.