Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[tictac]

imma just stare at this raid until someone outs then.

Spoiler: gif + seecrets the goverment doesn't want u to know about

youuu are feeling sleepyy, veery sleepyy now.
colose yer eye, but continue reading. good
just
like
that
youuu aree a VTee. youu should ouut fromm thee reaaidd.

here is a funny joke:
a rabbit, a priest and an englsman went raiding
then they dies and everyone laughed at them.
cause raiding is stoopid. hahahhaha.

[tictac]

pagetop

[Tomorrow Corporation]

Excellent pagetopping tactics, tictac.

[tictac]

doo iiittt

[mastina]

Btw I don't have the time/energy to read the thread properly right now (depending on work, that'll have to wait until Sunday at earliest, maybe even later, potentially Monday or even Tuesday (depends on work, schedule, how much it takes out of me, etc.).

If the day hasn't ended before then, I intend to read/respond to things properly, although as far as I'm concerned, I don't really see any

need

for the day to keep going, at least on

my

end. (I've submitted the guaranteed raid success, I laid out my reasons for my reads, so I've said everything I set out to say. Meaning, the day continuing would explicitly be due to others needing it due to them wanting to say more. I've said what I set out to say, but I'm not the entirety of the town. I think I'm explaining this concept well enough for you to get my meaning here; basically, you don't need to keep the day going on behalf of me but if you have reasons to not end the day yourself, obviously, I'm also not in any particular rush so can wait until you're ready.)

That said, I DID do something I wanted to; a brief iso control-f of tictac and Tomorrow Corporation.
While I'm not sure on the chronology RE: Cakez (it may have been on D2 invalidating this, meaning I need to check timestamps there when putting more work in), I

did

notice that Tomorrow Corporation, like RealCheeks, has pushed all three scum. Not as strongly as RealCheeks in most cases, but it's present. Plus, TC was pushed as the counterwagon to Elsa Jay.

tictac's record is comparably less than stellar. tictac hard-defended WhemeStar and also was a defender of SirCakez on D1 prior to the guilty, but admittedly, tictac

did

push Elsa Jay fairly strongly. (Plus, was another of the counterwagons to Elsa Jay, albeit not as popular as the TC one.) Additionally, if, as I suspect, MB is scum, tictac's interactions loosely suggest not scum-scum there (albeit not locked as definitive, they are at least probable in being not scum-scum), tho obviously that relies on an MB scumflip.

When it comes to Dwlee's interactions, which I am reading now, the Cakez interactions don't look to me to be scum, but plausibly still could be so can't clear them from that. Their Wheme vote early however is at least promising, being an early pusher of Wheme as scum. Not really much with Elsa, but the WhemeStar push is at least enough to be somewhat promising. (This, on top of the other reasons for the slot to be town; see also, Dwlee-Titus 'hood N1.) If, as I suspect, MB is scum, Dwlee's interactions there are less than stellar, tho obviously that relies on an MB scumflip.


Basically, when it comes to towniness from the non-STD/Mystic Bears slots (without taking into account roles or meta), I'd go, most town to least town:

Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

Bonus iso control-f of Qrow/Raven; they have some fairly good suspicion of SirCakez prior to D2. As in, were one of the only slots to VOTE SirCakez on D1. And not as a temporary thing; he was their main vote for the majority of that day phase. It was mostly Gamma, but even Nancy held suspicion of the slot. The Elsa Jay interactions, while not hard-pushing, look organic and not buddy-buddy (their interaction with Elsa is in some ways similar to RealCheeks's interactions with Mystic Bears to me). The read did shift into more of a scumread later, which is promising.

Admittedly, the slot does have a stain in defending Wheme, but the Wheme defense actually looks town to me in a way that doesn't look like scum defending a scumbuddy but more like town defending a "I know this isn't objective and isn't really gut but I feel like it" type of defense. They also show some read progression there, which is promising. The original townread shifted into a "something seems

off

" read, showing a progression towards scumreading the slot. (As for Mystic Bears, similarly has a bit of a read progression there that doesn't really look scum scum.)

In the scale above, I'd rate them at ~RealCheeks' level without meta, and above Tomorrow Corporation with meta, in that their play just does NOT fit with a scumbuddy.

So like.

Towniest to scummiest in the non-STD/MB names, we get:
Qrow and Raven >> Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

Extra Extra Bonus: Bell control-f for Cakez and Elsa reveals he was immediately suspicious of both slots on D1. As in, didn't like SirCakez, was suspicious of him, and HARD-pushed Elsa. He even called out the (correct) potential for them to be scum-scum. The only times he backed off of one was when he switched to pushing the other. A bit later, he also was a pusher of WhemeStar. And one of the strongest ones at that. So like, even if he weren't town by meta (which he is), he's pushed all three scum in the game.

So like.

Towniest to scummiest in the non-STD/MB names, we get:
Bell

>

Qrow and Raven >> Tomorrow Corporation

>

RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99

>

tictac.

(Prolly going to bed now so no iso of Toog/Mandelbrot here for the control-f of dead scum, and I'm too tired to add links so y'all can see what I just did the work on yourselves, but suffice to say, I DO think it's just MB and STD here because I just think everyone else has more reason to be town. Some by play, some by meta, some by role, some by 2-3 of these combined. Whereas Mystic Bears and MB both have reason to be scum by play, by meta if I am correct, and by role if I am correct.)

[tictac]

mastina:
-is in the strongman pool and started the game with a reason to be on every raid that gives +1 to oneshot abilities
-the read on QR is weid af when Raven basically gave up on trying to look town like a dayphase ago.
-cool there have been scumflips, but the important ones havent flipped (rb,strong), and the search for the blocker yelded a bodyguad insted, which is like ?? how does that happen even.
not like saying "yeet mastina", but going "nah fam, we good on info on mastina" is... silly. imma go with "silly" on this one.

[tictac]

is in the strongman pool and started the game with a reason to be on every raid that gives +1 to oneshot abilities

ok circular logic. we do know that one exists tho, and is very likely 1 shot.

[Mandelbrot]

I can’t read apparently because I thought their entire role had to do with making raids succeed or not.

That's just one aspect of her role.

She was pretty quiet about the rest of it until last night, and claimed it publicly today.

- House

trying to find this. did u just mean when she claimed "there's other stuff" basically?

My bad, I thought she posted it out here too.

- House

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, in the pt she spewed, but not as much here. I think it was more for an "in the event of my death," kind of thing.

[tictac]

I can’t read apparently because I thought their entire role had to do with making raids succeed or not.

That's just one aspect of her role.

She was pretty quiet about the rest of it until last night, and claimed it publicly today.

- House

trying to find this. did u just mean when she claimed "there's other stuff" basically?

My bad, I thought she posted it out here too.

- House

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

[Mystic Bears]

Excellent pagetopping tactics, tictac.

Ehh you should have more to say than that.

[tictac]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

[Mystic Bears]

how about massy writes up a wall assuming i flip town because that'll actually come in clutch tomorrow

[Mystic Bears]

Tomorrow Corporation > RealCheeks >>>> Dwlee99 > tictac.

I am totally fine with this. Like if you just follow this order, game just ends in two days.
3 or 4 is also possible but it'd be more obvious if one of those two wasn't scum by that time. Also, I still nullread Dwlee really heavily and like Dwlee is by no means confirmed town from what I've read. To house I suppose.

[Mandelbrot]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

I'll let Toog answer these.

- House

[Dwlee99]

I am extra town

[Mandelbrot]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

I'll let Toog answer these.

- House

Like, I can see town motive in wanting to get H1H2's role pm, but Toog probably has a better overall take on what you're asking.

- House

[tictac]

k.
is it clearing and/or verifiable in your estimation?

o and does the use-case of trying to get h12 flip info make sense?

I'll let Toog answer these.

- House

Like, I can see town motive in wanting to get H1H2's role pm, but Toog probably has a better overall take on what you're asking.

- House

yea. ok.
logical concistency of the claim is what i'm after here not motivation.

[Mystic Bears]

This doesn't track with a bulletproof titus? Which is how I assume we know about a role stealing role?

What's tonight's raid bonus?

- House

No idea.

Yes, mandel is a link shell neighborizor who also is a strongman.

That makes sense.

Never made the implication Mandel was Strongman? Don't know what you're getting at here.

I actually don’t find neighborizors very townie because neighborhoods are an awesome manipulation tool in scum hands.

This strong man stuff is just confused though.
Also, after realizing that this mastina argument is only about checking a single claim of Mastina’s that doesn’t even confirm their alignment I care little about this tbh.

VOTE: Mystic bears

Have a good one.

That's why I always sideeye neighbourhoods. I used a scum hood amazingly against Mastina before now and bought myself a biasclear.

If Nancy hammers after town reading me like that, that needs to be looked at tomorrow.
Didn't understand tictacs posts but that hammer would be funky. It'd be weird but not confscum.
But otherwise its just realcheeky and tomorrow.

So, you're voting a player outside your solve with your scumread?

That totally makes sense.

- House

Almost like it has to be done sometimes... Besides that, we're voting a player

I'm

suspicious of, whats with you and trying to so openly undermine our position?


-F

[Mystic Bears]

And by undermining us I mean failing miserably at your misrepresentation attempts.

You may be biasclear, but you're literally just trying to shove us based on BS.

-F

[Bell]

Real cheeks made the argument that Mandel was a possibility as a strong man.
It wasn't directed toward you.

[Mystic Bears]

My bad ^_^

-F

[Bell]

No worries,
if you flip town, I'll have done a much worse bad.

[Qrow and Raven]

The reasons for town believing there is an RB and strongman are pretty valid.
- Romance claiming to be RB'd N2 onwards.
- Titus was killed and was BP.
~C

She only could have been rb’d twice because she flipped X shot and she was on D1 raid.

~R

[Qrow and Raven]

H1H2 said their role enabled them to strongly believe both TC and Tictac are aligned with town so I don't know if a role swap gave scum another ability or if they took an informed role.
~C

They also mixed up Alisae the poster with Alisaie the flavour and neither of them claimed that flavour, however I do think he was probably right about TC regardless.

~R