Open 81 - The New C9 - Game Over

[StrangerCoug]

strife220, a quick reread of your posts in isolation actually leads me to believe you are town.

I'll reconsider Korts.

[Korts]

Do you think there is a second doc?

Nope
Are you going to argue that no kill N2 proves there was a doc? It's an awkward point to argue against. However, given how much suspicion you were under D1, setting yourself up for a fake-claim makes sense. It also doesn't make much sense for scum to target the confirmed vig when there was a good chance of being a doc alive.

The point I was trying to make wasn't that the lack of a N2 kill proves the existence of a second doc. My point was, How likely do you think it would be for scum to set a fakeclaim up on N2? I wasn't under more than moderate suspicion D1. And do you really think you're going to WIFOM your way out of this by saying the scum would calculate in the possible existence of a second doc?

And .. why is me thinking Korts is scum indicative of me being scum? It's lylo and BM and Fonz would both be easier targets for me-scum. You not agreeing with my argument doesn't mean I have to be scum. Think about motivations. You're being reckless here by not thinking things through.

Why would BM and Fonz be better targets? Even yesterday, a lot of people were questioning my alignment. It's enough WIFOM that I have survived this long for town to consider me a valid lynch, and I don't think it would be too hard for scum to exploit that.

[strife220]

Why would BM and Fonz be better targets?

Because our confirmed player (SC) thinks you're town. And Farside stated yesterday that she thinks you're town. And Fonz (as far as I can see) hasn't made ANY comment on what he thinks of your alignment. Of the 3 people that questioned your alignment, 2 of them (1 scum, 1 town) are now dead.

I wasn't under more than moderate suspicion D1.

I recall this quote being made D1:

Wake me up when I have to claim.

On going back to it, I see you were still far from a lynch, but at that point you had the most votes on you (4).

do you really think you're going to WIFOM your way out of this by saying the scum would calculate in the possible existence of a second doc?

If I was in a game that had a 50:50 chance of there being a doc alive, I wouldn't take the risk to send in a night-kill on the obvious doc-protect target. Maybe some disagree, but my point is very valid.

Let me lend you a decent counter-argument to my point. Would Korts-scum send in a no-kill with the intention of fake claiming a doc protect when he didn't know if there was a second doc in the game?
That's the one point that makes me less confident about Korts' alignment. But I still think OP's counter-claim yesterday and the fact that he's still alive are stronger strikes against him.

[Korts]

The fact that I'm still alive holds no water as a valid scumtell, as you are well aware I'm sure.

Wake me up when I have to claim.

On going back to it, I see you were still far from a lynch, but at that point you had the most votes on you (4).

The case on me was weak and I was annoyed at it. I'm not really convinced I would've been lynched on such grounds as they were.

If I was in a game that had a 50:50 chance of there being a doc alive, I wouldn't take the risk to send in a night-kill on the obvious doc-protect target.

Yet you obviously consented to that kill

[strife220]

You've been pushing the notion of me not being doc with far too big conviction. Occam's razor is, in my irrelevant opinion, applicable here. Which do you think is likelier, me being doc and OP trying a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass, or OP counterclaiming and trying to bus one of his two remaining scumbuddies in a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass?

So, I'm scum because I'm pressing that you're scum despite clearly having no one on my side?

[Korts]

Sorry, what? That doesn't make sense to me.

[Korts]

mod

: please prod the Fonz

[strife220]

I asked why you thought I was scum (besides OMGUS)
and your answer, as far as I can tell, is OMGUS

[Korts]

Do I really have any other option right now? Obviously I can't judge this from an objective angle, but your apparent confidence in me not being doc is too great considering the situation here. Your proof of me not being doc doesn't amount to much more than WIFOM. If I say you're suspicious for this, you mean to imply it's just OMGUS?

[StrangerCoug]

If I really have to, I'll throw my vote on Korts, and I do see part of strife220's argument. I figured the order of the nightkills would be doc, then the vig, then the masons. Both masons are dead, Korts and I are still alive.

[strife220]

Do I really have any other option right now? Obviously I can't judge this from an objective angle, but your apparent confidence in me not being doc is too great considering the situation here. Your proof of me not being doc doesn't amount to much more than WIFOM. If I say you're suspicious for this, you mean to imply it's just OMGUS?

By OMGUS I mean the vote is based on nothing more than my attacks on you. There's a whole lot of other content in the game. Did my defense of Ting look like buddying? Did my attacks on OP and IAUN look like bussing? Can you see me being scum with either Farside (who I really wanted lynched a day or two ago) or Fonz (who I've explicitly stated earlier that I didn't want lynched)? If so, which one? Is there one that I'm clearly Not partnered with?
You keep saying I have confidence that you're not the doc. This is a twist of words. I picked you out as most likely scum on D1 and haven't wavered much from that stance. I don't believe your doc claim saves you. So I'm not 'confident you're not the doc,' I'm 'confident you're scum.' You think I'm scum because I'm confident you're scum = OMGUS.
Could you please re-read me before you make such bold statements about my alignment?

@Both Korts and SC - There are two other (relatively inactive) players in the game. At least one of them is scum (unless it's a strife/korts scum-team). BM's (now Farside) play was unusual for him. Fonz spent most of the game screaming back and forth with Ting. Should be worthwhile to try and pick out the scum team.

[Korts]

DRUNKPOST WARNING

There's a whole lot of other content in the game. Did my defense of Ting look like buddying? Did my attacks on OP and IAUN look like bussing?

I think your play has been consistently pro-town other than the fact that you're trying to lynch me No but seriously, I'll do a thorough reread on you tomorrow, something which I probably have promised a few times' tomorrows already, knowing myself...

You keep saying I have confidence that you're not the doc. This is a twist of words. I picked you out as most likely scum on D1 and haven't wavered much from that stance. I don't believe your doc claim saves you. So I'm not 'confident you're not the doc,' I'm 'confident you're scum.' You think I'm scum because I'm confident you're scum = OMGUS.

Ok, fair enough, I guess. I can see your point.

I think at this point we should just back off; we've both made out points pretty clear, we're not getting much farther without the others.

@Both Korts and SC - There are two other (relatively inactive) players in the game. At least one of them is scum (unless it's a strife/korts scum-team). BM's (now Farside) play was unusual for him. Fonz spent most of the game screaming back and forth with Ting. Should be worthwhile to try and pick out the scum team.

I already picked the most likely scumteam, if you hadn't noticed. I'm focusing on you especially because

you're just that handsome

no-one else (unconfirmed) is participating in the game right now...

[StrangerCoug]

@Both Korts and SC - There are two other (relatively inactive) players in the game. At least one of them is scum (unless it's a strife/korts scum-team). BM's (now Farside) play was unusual for him. Fonz spent most of the game screaming back and forth with Ting. Should be worthwhile to try and pick out the scum team.

I already picked the most likely scumteam, if you hadn't noticed. I'm focusing on you especially because

you're just that handsome

no-one else (unconfirmed) is participating in the game right now...

Do we need to state the obvious, Korts?

As for my input, I think The Fonz is scummier than farside22, and my most recent reread on you came off as town, which means that, if I'm right, the scum pair is either The Fonz and farside22 or The Fonz and Korts.

[Korts]

I have to do some hardcore studying for tomorrow, so no analyses today, sadly...

[The Fonz]

Okay... After OP's claim yesterday I think I'm more or less confirmed, which should mean that with two confirmed (SC and me) the two remaining scum are in the {farside; Fonz; strife} group.

Hang on? How the hell does that confirm you? That would only work if you thought OP actually believed that his attempt to 'counterclaim' you might work. Now, it's possible he actually is that stupid, but it's also equally possible he was just trying to bus (with the caveat about how wrong my previous bus read was).

Well okay, so now I'm convinced that strife is one of the two scum

Why, besides OMGUS?

Grrrrr. Ban that acronym. Now.

You've been pushing the notion of me not being doc with far too big conviction. Occam's razor is, in my irrelevant opinion, applicable here.

Well, hang on, Occam's razor also suggests that the most likely reason for a claimed doc to survive multiple nights is that he's scum, surely?

Which do you think is likelier, me being doc and OP trying a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass, or OP counterclaiming and trying to bus one of his two remaining scumbuddies in a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass?

Objection. Leading question. If it were a bus, it wouldn't be an attempt to save his ass, but to distance. Again, it depends on how stupid you think OP is.

My reread of the first quarter or so of the game gave me town vibes from strife220, but the fact that he's still trying to pin suspicion on a confirmed doc doesn't look right.

Again, please explain how he's confirmed?

Re-reading to re-assess my confidence on Fonz and Farside's alignment:

You're at lynch -2, and you can sure as hell be willing to believe i'll support your lynch on lurkerhating grounds if you continue as you are. So, IF you're town, you've got very little to lose. Read. Work out who your public enemy number one is. And then explain why. We'll probably lynch you anyway- but at least you might be able to shed some light on the situation.

This was said to OP. Fonz, given we were just about in lylo, what was your intention with this comment?

I'd quibble with virtually lylo- after all, we did have the vig. But, to answer the more general point, to get him talking. Everyone should be aware of my position on noncontributors by now. The more people speak, the easier it is to get a read on them. Plus, if he's town, there's always the possibility he comes up with some fresh insight that I've missed, and if he's scum, there's the chance he'll incautiously let slip something that points to the identity of one or more buddies.

SC - why oh why would scum let the doc live this long?

This is WIFOM, and even if it weren't, I still wouldn't know.

It's not necessarily WIFOM. I'm trying to work out under what circumstances scum would dare to leave a doctor alive this long, with a vig as well. Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw. Given your apparent attitude to his claim, that's not a bet i'd take if it were me. But then, iirc farside can be pretty bold as scum, I don't have a meta on strife.

If it isn't Korts, it's farside-strife. I need to re-read that pair to see if it makes any sense before i comment further.

[farside22]

Sorry again. Remind me to not replace in a game over 20 pages. Grrr.

SC: What in your read changed your mind from strife scum to town?

Also I'm wondering about strife since SC voted and no one said boo about it except Korts. I need to see how many people started in this game. People thinking one or two mafia left?

[The Fonz]

Two. It's a semi-open setup, and the number of scum is known.

[farside22]

Two. It's a semi-open setup, and the number of scum is known.

Ah. See this is why I need to read through the game a bit more.

[StrangerCoug]

The Fonz, the lack of a Mafia nightkill is what I think confirms him. Since the Mafia kills after that seem to want to stop making sense to me, I'm having second thoughts at this time.

farside22, the lack of anything that I saw as overly scummy plus the back of my head telling me that Korts might actually not be the doctor is what led me to believe that strife220 is more likely town than scum.

[Korts]

If it isn't Korts, it's farside-strife

You apparently being a vanilla, this is the only thing you could say as to your suspicions, so why say it? If it isn't me (it isn't), SC is confirmed, and it's two scum out of three, so naturally everyone would be pointing at the other two. I can't phrase why that seems scummy to me to state.

Hang on? How the hell does that confirm you? That would only work if you thought OP actually believed that his attempt to 'counterclaim' you might work. Now, it's possible he actually is that stupid, but it's also equally possible he was just trying to bus (with the caveat about how wrong my previous bus read was).

Okay, that's true.

Well, hang on, Occam's razor also suggests that the most likely reason for a claimed doc to survive multiple nights is that he's scum, surely?

Yes, that's true, but not the point. I

know

I'm being set up, so to me it's a particularly strong tell when someone pushes for my lynch with so much conviction.

Objection. Leading question. If it were a bus, it wouldn't be an attempt to save his ass, but to distance. Again, it depends on how stupid you think OP is

I don't think he's stupid, per se, but his actions indicate that he was pretty desperate not to get lynched. Of course, you're right. Take it this way: which is likelier, me, the real doc being counterclaimed by OP as a last-ditch attempt at saving his ass, or OP being clear-minded enough despite his apparent panic at the speed of his lynch to distance one of his scumbuddies? This, too, depends on how you judge OP and his play.

I'm trying to work out under what circumstances scum would dare to leave a doctor alive this long, with a vig as well. Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw. Given your apparent attitude to his claim, that's not a bet i'd take if it were me. But then, iirc farside can be pretty bold as scum, I don't have a meta on strife.

I know it must take bold scum to let me live this far, but the sheer mass of WIFOM generated is enough to drive my lynch. Note: Fonz is trying to disassociate the boldness of this gambit from his person ("that's not a bet I'd take if it were me"). It looks to me like he's trying to exclude himself from the speculation on the scumpair, although I could see town doing it too.

[farside22]

I will pay anyone to go thru and give me an analysis on each player. Please?

[strife220]

Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw.

I don't understand how this is true. If Korts is town and lynched today, scum win regardless of SC's night action since 1 town + 1 scum = scum win. If Korts is town and we mislynch someone else, scum kills Korts tonight for the scum win.

If Korts claim is genuine and we mislynch today, scum win. Unless Korts can protect himself, which I doubt since the doc PM doesn't say he can.

I will pay anyone to go thru and give me an analysis on each player. Please?

SC = confirmed vig

Korts = claimed doc on D3 (i think). There was no scum nightkill N2, and he claims it's because he protected SC. The next two nights has scum killing masons instead of the claimed doc, putting us in the situation we're in now with a confirmed vig and unconfirmed doc. OP (scum) was lynched yesterday and as a last-ditch effort to either distance scum or mislynch town, OP claimed to be the real doc.

Fonz - Spent the entire game writing essays about how GreasySpot (replaced by Ting, confirmed town) was obv-scum. Honestly all I can recall about his play.

Me - Instigated Muerrto's mislynch. Strongly opposed Ting's mislynch. (I think) Instigated OP's lynch. Thinks Korts is the most likely scum, despite his doc claim.

[farside22]

Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw.

I don't understand how this is true. If Korts is town and lynched today, scum win regardless of SC's night action since 1 town + 1 scum = scum win. If Korts is town and we mislynch someone else, scum kills Korts tonight for the scum win.

If Korts claim is genuine and we mislynch today, scum win. Unless Korts can protect himself, which I doubt since the doc PM doesn't say he can.

I will pay anyone to go thru and give me an analysis on each player. Please?

SC = confirmed vig

Korts = claimed doc on D3 (i think). There was no scum nightkill N2, and he claims it's because he protected SC. The next two nights has scum killing masons instead of the claimed doc, putting us in the situation we're in now with a confirmed vig and unconfirmed doc. OP (scum) was lynched yesterday and as a last-ditch effort to either distance scum or mislynch town, OP claimed to be the real doc.

Fonz - Spent the entire game writing essays about how GreasySpot (replaced by Ting, confirmed town) was obv-scum. Honestly all I can recall about his play.

Me - Instigated Muerrto's mislynch. Strongly opposed Ting's mislynch. (I think) Instigated OP's lynch. Thinks Korts is the most likely scum, despite his doc claim.

Why do you believe that Korts is lying. Don't you think the whole discussion is just WIFOM at this point?

[The Fonz]

Running the numbers, if Korts' claim is genuine, then scum HAVE to get him lynched today, or the best they can do is a draw.

I don't understand how this is true. If Korts is town and lynched today, scum win regardless of SC's night action since 1 town + 1 scum = scum win. If Korts is town and we mislynch someone else, scum kills Korts tonight for the scum win.

1 town 1 scum DOES NOT equal a scum win when the town still has a killing capacity. The scum WC is

You win when you are the only faction remaining or when there is nothing to prevent this from being the case.

A living vig is a pretty big something to prevent it being the case. If it goes to 1-1 and both can kill, it's a draw.

[strife220]

A living vig is a pretty big something to prevent it being the case. If it goes to 1-1 and both can kill, it's a draw.

... Really?

Mod, confirm?