Mini Normal 2245: LJITGBSMoD [game over!]

[Datisi]

vote count 6.02

with 4 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 6 ends in (expired on 2021-11-26 21:00:00).

yeet

not voting [4]:

Dwlee99, Commander Shepard, osuka, StrangeMatter

mod notes

~ one two seven three

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[StrangeMatter]

You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me

I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.

What even is your case on me right now?

[Commander Shepard]

You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me

I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.

But you!scum is forced to scumread me because you know I'm honed into you for your play on wrt slot yesterday

I am not scum, but even if I was I would not be forced to scumread you. My play yesterday was about working down a PoE. As I said I know scum was on that elim so I played that properly. The more you say you’re honed in for good play it’s just spam. It’s quite frankly wrong unless you are scum and are incapable of seeing it from my point of view.

[Commander Shepard]

Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare

okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum here

Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"

gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtell

And I think redtea said it well ^^^

This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.

[Commander Shepard]

You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me

I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.

What even is your case on me right now?

There’s the scum pointers of you being a replace in so late in the game and not enough backwards hunting. You being on the tailend of Gamma is sus. Voting when it’s conf town decision is sus.

However just because I can make an argument you are scum doesn’t make it right. I want to elim the right person.

[Commander Shepard]

I would rather not make a whole big argument until I have broken up the other days.

[Commander Shepard]

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441

I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason, because once I make a decision I have to stick with it.

[Dwlee99]

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441

I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason,

because once I make a decision I have to stick with it

Perspective

I'm gonna give you space to do your ~analysis~ though

Good luck

Actually, there were things directed towards me and I feel the need to respond

[Dwlee99]

Perspective slip?*

[Dwlee99]

Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare

okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum here

Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"

gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtell

And I think redtea said it well ^^^

This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.

I feel like you killed Alice specifically to come into today saying that

[Commander Shepard]

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=76441

I am clearly capable of convincing town of almost anything when I am mafia. They let me live that game longer than they should with a ridiculous claim. I know what I am capable when I attempt to manipulate people. So I am intentionally reserved for that reason,

because once I make a decision I have to stick with it

Perspective

I'm gonna give you space to do your ~analysis~ though

Good luck

Actually, there were things directed towards me and I feel the need to respond

No perspective slip. This to me is essentially elo with Osaka deciding it. If we no elim Osaka clearly dies and protecting someone would be throwing. If I waffle between the two of you after voting then we surely lose as both you and Matter think it’s me. Therefore I must decide,be right, and be convincing.

[Commander Shepard]

Pedit: like I said I grant that. It’s a gambit because it’s rare

okay but this is incongruent with what you've said to my slot, which is why I think you're just scum here

Like your read on redtea is an easy "oh they're not scum cause why would scum gambit" but your read on me is "they're scum cause this gambit scenario is totally the most likely thing that happened"

gut says anyone sring dwlee at this point is a scumtell

And I think redtea said it well ^^^

This is selective and I know factually incorrect. Alice was thinking you and Gamma and the fact she was the conf Town who died bares a lot of weight.

I feel like you killed Alice specifically to come into today saying that

How would I know you’d highlight redtea so I highlight that? You’re stretching Mixter. I get you think/are pushing I am scum but this is just confbias and not useful and gives more to Osaka who says they can’t/aren’t reading. What are you doing to bring them up to speed?

[Commander Shepard]

Known Alignments

• Town -> toxictaipan, val89, norway, marcistar, darby,t3,aliceK
  
• Scum -> Jolyne, Gamma

Assumptions

• Redtea is town based on the claim and Alice not dying.
  
• Scum are in between Dwlee99 and StrangeMatter (fmpov this is a fact, but I'm putting this under assumptions to be clear of the starting premises.)

Day 1 events

Day 1 Facts

• Day 1 lasted until 1197.
  
• Post 405 Val89 confirmed as town
  
• Day 1 flipped toxictaipan as VT. The only locked scum on it is Gamma. The only other possible scum on the wagon is Dwlee. Jolyne and StrangeMatter's slot (and mine if you want to consider me which is well not possible from my pov) were off the wagon.

Joylene scumreads/votes

• Jolyne voted Darby, Alice,val, unvote, Alice, post 853 -> Claimed informed ascetic scum. Already noted as to why this was important.
  
• Jolyne scumread Norway, t3,
  
• 422 shades conf town bad.
  
• Suggests and pushes toxic despite never voting for them.
  
• Hard pushes Alice
  
• Post 853 votes are T3. Tinfoils Gamma as partner to Alice. 1103, doesn't "buy this shit" from Gamma.

Joylene townreads

• Joylne -> marci, darby, t3, complains about Darby and val wagon despite never talking about val, dwlee town, norway, alice, gamma
  
• Post 853 -> redtea, marci.

Gamma notes

• Votes: t3, val, t3, toxic, t3, toxic (not a typo that pattern is duplicated)
  
• Gamma defends Dwlee T3 meta argument scum by exploitable? How? It's either true or it's not. Look at T3 meta tell later. See if accurate. -> Hints towards Dwlee
  
• Gamma POE 671 -> Rule of 3 hints towards Strange Matter

Need to pause here because of stupid council but based on Jolyne intentionally fake claiming something bad without pressure, scum likely had a plan to bus. It's highly unlikely that this was done with a buddy being inactive (based on VCs), so day one initial thoughts are pointing towards Dwlee.

I need to ISO Dwlee and CamelCase D1 and check out T3's meta suggestion to see if it's true.

THIS IS A FAKE VOTE : DWLEE

Then because of the limited size, will probably combine the other days.

@osaka this has a summary much as I have been able to of day one. Been crazy busy. People object to some conclusions but post numbers are there for yourself.

[Dwlee99]

This point goes back to how you opened the day saying something about Alice being killed, not just this one instance

I also am not interested in posting big summaries of the game. If osuka has questions they can ask, or they can just ISO for my thoughts on you

[StrangeMatter]

You're pretty much confirmed by role claim, it's between me/strange/commander. I think it's commander. I think strange does as well. Commander is intermittently going through the game and deciding if they want to vote me or strange but has been pivoting towards me

I agree with everything except the pivoting towards. It’s framing things as if I have an agenda, which I don’t. It’s actually much easier to make a case against Strange Matter but I am more concerned with what is right.

What even is your case on me right now?

There’s the scum pointers of you being a replace in so late in the game and not enough backwards hunting. You being on the tailend of Gamma is sus. Voting when it’s conf town decision is sus.

However just because I can make an argument you are scum doesn’t make it right. I want to elim the right person.

And exactly what makes you think all of that is wrong?

[osuka]

quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.

this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)

town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)

that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.

which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.

[osuka]

someone please sanity check what i just wrote. i wrote these thoughts for myself but i wanna know if they make sense (i'm quite tired at the moment)

this also means that we NEED to execute today, because if we don't execute then i should not defend anyone; in that case, where the first item is the kill target and the second target is the protect target, scum wins if:
- (me, town1)
- (me, town2)
- (town1, town2)
- (town2, town1)
- (town2, scum)
- (town1, scum)

town wins if:
- (me, scum)

and we get an extra day if:
- (town1, town1)
- (town2, town2)

which means scum wins 2/3 of the time, with p=1/9 of town win and p=2/9 of extra day. that means that we're in the same situation - if we no exec, then i'm the obvious target, and we get an extra day sans me. whether or not that's the optimal play ultimately depends on who we want to be in the next day

[Commander Shepard]

@StrangeMatter -> Those things are obviously bad. Not sure what you’re asking.

So couple of things
1) No one here scumreads you and based on the babysitter claim you are confirmed town.
2) Scum will 100% shoot you overnight because of point A.
3) This means we have a 2/3rds chance of losing if we no elim.

Instead I think the better option is to either go with who you say to elim or you give reads and you protect no one going into the night.

Admittedly this means I have to dig myself out of the hole scum have put me in and whichever one of Dwlee/StrangeMatter is scum well done but you should not be protecting anyone tonight.

[Commander Shepard]

3)* if we no elim and you protect someone.

It’s much more important to sort people than try to gain a day. There’s four people left and we have to buckle down and decide the elim.

[Commander Shepard]

If we elim and assume that we elim town, that should also be considered an auto loss because then a Townie dies and GG.

I agree that we need to elim today but it’s a foolish thing to think you’re more than an IC at this point Osaka.

[Commander Shepard]

If you’re dead set on not elimming as the traditional four rules say please don’t protect anyone. I would rather you just argue for who you think scum is than a hero babysit.

[osuka]

If you’re dead set on not elimming as the traditional four rules say please don’t protect anyone. I would rather you just argue for who you think scum is than a hero babysit.

didn't i literally just say that if we no exec, i shouldn't protect? did you not read anything i just wrote?

[osuka]

3)* if we no elim and you protect someone.

It’s much more important to sort people than try to gain a day. There’s four people left and we have to buckle down and decide the elim.

my point is we're likely to gain a day regardless of what happens if we exec today

[osuka]

If we elim and assume that we elim town, that should also be considered an auto loss because then a Townie dies and GG.

I agree that we need to elim today but it’s a foolish thing to think you’re more than an IC at this point Osaka.

did you not read anything i just wrote?

[osuka]

quick maths: if we execute town here, then with 1 mafia and with me babysitter, and also assuming a random scum target, town definitely wins if scum kills me if i've protected them. town maybe wins (gets an extra day) if i protect a target successfully - that either means scum didn't kill, or that means ive protected town (but we'll never know that until endgame). scum definitely wins if i don't protect, or if they kill me and i've protected town.

this, i think, means i should definitely protect tonight. assuming equal probability of scum choosing one of { me, other town, no kill }, and equal probability of me choosing { town, scum }:
town wins when:
- (me, scum)
scum wins when:
- (me, town)

town maybe wins when:
- (other town, town)
- (other town, scum)
- (no kill, town)
- (no kill, scum)

that gives p=1/6 of town losing, p=1/6 of town winning, and p=2/3 of another day. this is unbiased because i couldn't possibly know ahead of time what scum is gonna do, and armed with this knowledge, scum couldn't possibly know ahead of time what i'll do. because neither decision (mine or the last mafia's) influences the outcome in a way that increases either alignment's probability of a win, we can actually just assume that both decisions are essentially random. this also means that 2/3 of the time, we'll get an extra day in this game.

which means that if we execute town here, we're essentially even. even though normally 1 mafia 3 town means mylo, we're actually in a weird spot where the babysitter makes that sort of not apply here.

actually this doesn't make sense but i don't want to elaborate as to why