Mini 2251: Triplicate! GAME OVER!

[Dunnstral]

Amy is dead town in game A

classic

[Amy Dunne]

We're too far in to pretend to not know the voting mechanics, don't you think?

Scum in game A are Titus, Amy, and then 1 more from the group who heavily pushed miselims and won't look inwards

Amy is dead town in game A

So why are you voting Titus in B then?

lolololol not buying this dumbtell.

[Titus]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

[Dunnstral]

We're too far in to pretend to not know the voting mechanics, don't you think?

[Amy Dunne]

Scum in game A are Titus, Amy, and then 1 more from the group who heavily pushed miselims and won't look inwards

Amy is dead town in game A

Agreed. I'm also curious as who he defines in this latter group, given his "accidental" Amy FoS.

Dunn is tilted that I caught him so he wants to kill me twice apparently.

[Amy Dunne]

We're too far in to pretend to not know the voting mechanics, don't you think?

Scum in game A are Titus, Amy, and then 1 more from the group who heavily pushed miselims and won't look inwards

[Amy Dunne]

Yes Dunn, I killed myself in game A. lmfaoooo

[Amy Dunne]

We're too far in to pretend to not know the voting mechanics, don't you think?

Scum in game A are Titus, Amy, and then 1 more from the group who heavily pushed miselims and won't look inwards

Amy is dead town in game A

So why are you voting Titus in B then?

lolololol not buying this dumbtell.

We're too far in to pretend to not know the voting mechanics, don't you think?

This is the second question I’ve asked that you’ve failed to answer. No, make that three:

Why did you vote Meg with DL onwagon but have your main account as “not voting”?
Why are you voting Titus in B?
Who is scum in A other than Titus and of course dead me?

[Titus]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

He can't just vote me in A...

[Amy Dunne]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

He can't just vote me in A...

Right but he never answered my question. If he thinks you’re scum only in A, why does he not have an opinion about B?

[Jingle]

Vote Count Normal.4.05

Dunnstral (E-3):

Titus,

Titus (E-3):

Dunnstral,

T3 (E-4):

Dwlee99 (E-4):

Radical Rat (E-4):

CheekyTeeky (E-4):

Lady Chloe (E-4):

No Elim (0):

Not Voting (5):

T3, Dwlee99, Radical Rat, CheekyTeeky, Lady Chloe

With 7 alive, it takes

4

to murder/death/kill or

4

to choose not to.

The deadline for Day 4 is in (expired on 2021-12-27 03:00:00).

Vote Count Theme.3.02

Dunnstral (E-3):

mastina, Titus,

Titus (E-4):

Dunnstral,

T3 (E-5):

House (E-5):

Radical Rat (E-5):

Amy Dunne(E-5):

mastina (E-5):

Alyssa the Lamb(E-5):

No Elim (0):

Not Voting (5):

T3, Radical Rat, House, Alyssa the Lamb, Amy Dunne

With 8 alive, it takes

5

to murder/death/kill or

4

to choose not to.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2021-12-24 02:00:00).

[House]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

He can't just vote me in A...

Right but he never answered my question. If he thinks you’re scum only in A, why does he not have an opinion about B?

Because her action was in A

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm legit not voting and being blamed for the loss today. I can see both worlds and I don't want to be wrong, sorry not sorry. If mastina can explain a bit more about T3 being confirmed town I'll sheep him and then he can cop it (pun intended).

For now if everyone in game A could post something then I think that indicates there's confirmed scum in Dunn/Titus.

[Amy Dunne]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

He can't just vote me in A...

Right but he never answered my question. If he thinks you’re scum only in A, why does he not have an opinion about B?

Because her action was in A

Do you believe Dunn dumbtells by thinking I’m buddies with Titus?

[Amy Dunne]

I'm legit not voting and being blamed for the loss today. I can see both worlds and I don't want to be wrong, sorry not sorry. If mastina can explain a bit more about T3 being confirmed town I'll sheep him and then he can cop it (pun intended).

For now if everyone in game A could post something then I think that indicates there's confirmed scum in Dunn/Titus.

I’m right on Cheeky, so that much I can continue to feel good about.

[House]

@Amy, Any vote in one is a vote in the other...

He can't just vote me in A...

Right but he never answered my question. If he thinks you’re scum only in A, why does he not have an opinion about B?

Because her action was in A

Do you believe Dunn dumbtells by thinking I’m buddies with Titus?

Beats me. That kind of reasoning requires more brainpower than I'm willing to expend.

[mastina]

Right so I can't explain until home from work, but basically, in game 1, T3 is confirmed as town with every player claiming VT.

More than that, it's highly likely that the scumteam has 2-3 rolecops, probably 2, and that T3's results are designed to function a lot like a cop but with the potential for them to have what amounts to a scum godfather in the bunch if it's only 2 scum rolecops.

I'll explain why when home.

Okay to explain this:

We have, precisely, three claimed roles in the Mini Normal, Game A/1:
MegAzumarill, the flipped town tracker;
RCEnigma/Alyssa the Lamb, the flipped town jailkeeper;
T3, a Rolecop-Finder.

T3's confirmed as town for multiple reasons.

For a start, Normals basically don't get by with less than three power roles--as-is, 2-3 mid-tier PRs is basically getting close to scumsided regardless of what the scum actually have. And that's precisely what we have, at best. Jingle kinda isn't the best at making sure games stay in the balanced range, but for a Normal, we require at least some standards.

So let me lay it out further, by breaking it down.

{Jailkeeper, Tracker, VTx5 vs. Goonx2} works as a micro (semi-)open setup balance-wise, but it

cannot

be scaled up to a Mini Normal size for a couple of crucial reasons.

The first is that adding an extra scum and adding three extra VTs doesn't maintain the balance ratio. You'd think that making lylo move back a day from D3 to D4, having an extra elimination, and more town voices, would be advantages to the town, but time and time again, it's been shown that in practice, no matter the theoretical math involved, things do not directly scale up that well. (You can see mountainous games as examples of this, where counterintuitively, the town's winrate can actually

drop

by adding extra VTs.) While the scum have more VTs to sort through in order to hit the PRs, the inverse is also true; the PRs have more VTs to sort through in order to get to the scum.

And the scum get a HUGE benefit from an extra scum voice. One extra informed minority means that the scum have a huge increase in their influence on the day phase and also in their strategizing in the scum PT. Three voices is better than two at catching errors, strategizing, setting up plans, figuring out the gamestate, hunting for PRs, etc.

The second reason is that setups that work as a(n) (semi-)open, don't directly translate to being balanced when run as a closed. The go-to example for this is masonx3 + VTx7 vs. Goonx3. This, as an open, is considered a balanced setup--but time and time again in the Normal queue, it has been shown to, as a Closed, end up scumsided. The lack of information on knowing what the setup actually is makes things much harder for the town (even the masons) and much much easier for the scum.

So for multiple reasons, the game

needs

a third town PR.

This even applies if the third scum were to be a traitor, too. While a traitor cannot communicate with the scumteam, they cannot be caught by associatives. {Tracker, JK} vs. {Goon, Goon, Traitor} might sound like it's closer to balanced from an omniscient viewpoint where you have full knowledge of what the setup is, but when you factor in that the players

don't

know the setup, it becomes ludicrously scumsided.

The only way the town has to know of the traitor is to actually flip the traitor. (A traitor's existence is not revealed by flipping groupscum in a Normal.) And if they flip the traitor, that means both groupscum remain alive--meaning that the tracker can't get innocents and has a harder time getting a guilty, and the jailkeeper can't tell if they have an innocent/guilty and has a difficult time generating either.

Sure, yes, if one of the two groupscum is eliminated, then the tracker becomes a cop and so does the jailkeeper...but only if the town knows about the traitor. Which, with one groupscum dead and the traitor alive? They don't.

In other words, a traitor does not actually nerf the scumteam:
For the town to elevate the tracker to a cop, they still need two scum dead; for the town to elevate the jailkeeper to a cop, they still need two scum dead.

So a traitor doesn't stop the game from being unacceptably ludicrously scumsided. Because the traitor can't be caught by the jailkeeper or tracker, and doesn't give associatives, and needs to die in order for the town PRs to know their value, and have a groupscum die for them to get maximum value. In other words, the traitor doesn't stop the scumsided nature of only two town PRs versus a scumteam. So a scumteam with three members on it will always be able to just run over a town with only two PRs.

That, aside from another reason I doubt a traitor would work as a fix: traitors in this game specifically just seem like a bad idea. When the whole idea of the game is that it's three games in one, a traitor kinda just...doesn't really work as well, do as much, etc.
Plus, as an aside: if the scumteam in game A/1 had a traitor, I'd think that the games wouldn't have remained synchronized for as long as they did. The synchronization of the games lasting as long as it did probably had groupscum backing and coordination.


So what does all that mean?

It means that T3, by necessity, for game balance,

must

be town. With literally everyone else claiming VT, the town needs to have a PR, and he's the only one who did. (This seems to happen to T3 a fair amount it'd seem. I know from experience it kinda sucks for scum to lose a free mislim due to a player claiming a PR that conftowns them, but hey, the scumteam collectively decided to all claim VT, so in this case, conftowning T3 is entirely their own fault.)

Now, what does T3 being town mean?

Well it means that the scum need a rolecop is what it means.

T3 could of course be a Named Townie--but that doesn't fix the balance problems. A Named Townie doesn't conftown themselves just by existing in the game. You can maybe, MAYBE see a Named Townie as being town if you have a NRG member or two in the game who know that 2 PRs is too few for a Mini Normal so a third even if it is worthless PR is fundamentally needed. But that's something which Jingle couldn't do until after the game began and I believe the game was balanced before the players.

In other words, the Finder cannot be just a Named Townie. They need to have a purpose.

Named Townies can exist as red herring roles, e.g. a Miller with no Cop, but when they exist, they exist as an extra to an already basically at the necessary power level town. If T3 were useless, then the town would still be tremendously underpowered.

So T3

needs

to have a purpose. His purpose could've been to verify a town rolecop's claim/existence but with no rolecop claim, it's mandatory that the rolecop will be scum.

The thing about that though, is that a rolecop, a full rolecop, makes the game scumsided still, in spite of T3 to find them.

So the rolecop both needs to EXIST, and also be GATED. We're talking, ~2-shot rolecop.

However, {Tracker, Jailkeeper, Rolecop-Finder} vs. {2x Rolecop} is still scumsided because the rolecop can identify town PRs, and the Rolecop-Finder doesn't know that the Rolecop is scum. If the scum Rolecop truthfully claimed, then the Rolecop-Finder could, reasonably, assume that the Rolecop was town and the Rolecop-Finder was meant for the town to be able to verify town. {Tracker, Jailkeeper, 2x Rolecop, Rolecop-Finder} vs. {Some weak scum PR or even Goonx3} wouldn't be townsided; it'd be at about the balanced range, so the scum rolecop claiming rolecop wouldn't even be a scumclaim from them.

So the rolecop can identify the town PRs way too well, and the rolecop-finder doesn't have a way to know that they are a cop, leaving that hypothetical setup still ludicrously scumsided.

But there's an easy fix to that.

There's a rising trend in Normal Games to have 2-3 members of a scumteam have the exact same role, and have a town player capable of creating a soft-guilty. (I'd know, I've reviewed most of them.) I can point to like 3-5 games which have used this. (The first Normal to do it was a town rolecop vs. 3 scum strongmans in a game with zero town killstopping power. The rolecop didn't know that non-strongman = town, but it wasn't too hard to deduce once two scum strongmen had flipped.)

And if the rolecop-finder needed a way to identify that they are in fact meant to find scum, the best way to have that: split the rolecop into multiple scum.

Ergo, 2-3 one-shot rolecops on the scumteam. Or maybe, maybe, a 2x rolecop + scum UB combo. (Same basic effect, but marginally stronger for the scumteam.)

While this could potentially allow the scumteam to get two rolecop results N1, it'd also mean that they are more vulnerable since while they get the information faster/sooner, the rolecop-finder is more likely to get mileage.



So what does all that mean?

T3 is conftown. He can't be scum and have us have a balanced setup.
T3 cannot be a worthless role--there must be at least one scum rolecop, but the setup isn't really balanced if there's not a second one.
Said rolecops must be gated, to have the game not be scumsided.
And thus, that means T3's results actually are very important:

I am a Town Rolecop Finder in Game A.

Dunn, Chloe, and Dwlee are all not Rolecops.

If there's 2-3 scum rolecops, then that means that there's 2-3 scum in the names outside of this:
{Radical Rat, Titus, CheekyTeeky}. Radical Rat is the obvious choice here. (I'm not sure which of Titus/CheekyTeeky would be scum as both slots have been town the entire game.)

The scumteam's not going to be precisely {Radical Rat, Titus, CheekyTeeky}, but it should have a minimum of 1/3 and if the Rolecop Finder can get multiple guilties, very well may have 2/3. (Barring a scum UB who was investigated initially as an innocent but turns into a guilty after the scum rolecop is yeeted.)

There's going to be a minimum of 2/3 town in {Dunnstral, Lady Chloe, Dwlee99}. While it's possible all three are town, it's quite unlikely. If I had to pick a scum from there it'd be Dunnstral.

Now, I'm going to be honest: I don't know who the third scum is. Regardless of play or the extended mechanics, there's no way around it:
With T3 as mechanically conftown, I only have two scumreads:
Radical Rat and Dunnstral.

Which means one of my townreads is wrong: {Titus, CheekyTeeky, Lady Chloe, Dwlee99}.

But while my mechanical theory about there being 2-3 scum rolecops could be wrong, my mechanical theory about T3 as far as I can tell

cannot

be wrong. Meaning no matter what, one of my four townreads is in fact scum. (Possibly more obviously but a minimum of 1.)

I think the optimal play is eliminating Radical Rat, although I'd also be willing to risk the Dunnstral elimination (and I am aware that Dunn vs Titus is an ongoing 1v1).

However, I want Ircher's factchecking on my work here. I'm pretty damn sure I'm right here, but I'd like his confirmation.

[Radical Rat]

As of right now, Ircher has said nothing on the topic.

I have my own opinions, but it's not really worth arguing. You have more experience and data than I do, and after your flip I know you're being genuine, so while I don't understand how a lot of that could possibly be balanced, I'll defer to your judgement.

Which makes my final solve Dwlee/Dunn/Cheeky. Preferred elimination right now is Dunn because I think he's the most likely scum in Game 2, and I don't want another opportunistic quickhammer happening there.

However, either T3 or one of the dead players in Game 2 needs to be the next one to vote, as I've said before. I know I probably die tonight anyway, but just in case scum makes the mistake of letting me live, I want to have this wagon structured properly

[Radical Rat]

Which makes my final solve Dwlee/Dunn/Cheeky. Preferred elimination right now is Dunn because I think he's the most likely scum in Game 2, and I don't want another opportunistic quickhammer happening there.

Actually it turns out I'm an idiot and forgot Dwlee and Cheeky were both already dead. So I guess I don't really have a huge preference here, though Dunn is still more convenient for not having to build the Game 2 wagon from scratch.

[T3]

I'm legit not voting and being blamed for the loss today. I can see both worlds and I don't want to be wrong, sorry not sorry. If mastina can explain a bit more about T3 being confirmed town I'll sheep him and then he can cop it (pun intended).

For now if everyone in game A could post something then I think that indicates there's confirmed scum in Dunn/Titus.

i'm here

[Titus]

I hate having to vote in elo early but to me it's rather obvious Dunn is scum in both games and I have suspicion on me. Those who are suspected imo should vote first in elo. I have my own theory on how voting in elo should work, but it's never been adopted.

I think Dwelee and Chloe are town. I don’t believe mastina's setup spec but I am open to T3 being town. I see things like Lemon Demon but I also see things like Deco. I also don't see T3's tone matching what I see of him from the past. These things weigh on my mind. Dwlee's skepticism feels genuine and I agree with it. I do see some scumhunting which is more than I see from Dunn and Cheeky. RR I waffle on being town or scum. I also see some hunting from him but acknowledge the timing of his claim is convienent but he's likely town in B.

[T3]

This is a

hardclaim

.

[Titus]

? *confused* Who said your claim wasn't hard?

[Lady Chloe]

I will be honest and not pretend to have read the last two days of content.

I have committed sin in not protecting the lovelies and pure from scoundrels.

My death has been my only absolution, outside of Game A of course.

[CheekyTeeky]

Thank you mastina that post should probably go in MD post game, I found it really helpful. I still think we should focus on the 1v1 today because a bird in the hand..

So T3, Lady, RR, Titus have posted since Titus and Dunn have a vote each so I think that pretty much confirms scum in them amirite?