Mini 2251: Triplicate! GAME OVER!

[Radical Rat]

@mastina, I'm not arguing this with you right now. We have Game B to solve.

I mean, I'm already voting Dunn.

He flips town, scum can ONLY include RR and either House or T3.

In the far, far, far more likely scenario when he flips scum, the last scum can only be v1/2 of {House, RR}.

So game two is already solved, we just need to have the votes placed in their proper order.

If Dunn flips Town, it's Amy and House OR Alyssa.
I haven't done the math to know if it's safe to eliminate me first in that case, but I'm probably dead tonight anyway, so I guess it'll all get cleared up then

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I see Alyssa posting elsewhere and not here.

And?

[Titus]

I want to see your contributions

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Idk what exactly you want to see considering the only things that have happened since I last posted are a bunch of debating on game As balance and the same shit that everyone has been repeating about game B for like a week now

[Alyssa The Lamb]

This game has been a broken record since I replaced in

[Titus]

I replaced after you, so can you at least give your reads?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

....no

You replaced in before me

Mastina even quoted her catchup post towards you to me

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I wish I had thought to ask Cheeky about the conversations about the Universal Backup before she flipped, but I'm kinda struggling to see how this claim works unless he's scum with exactly Titus and nobody else.

With Dunnstral's role in the game, it's still a lot more likely that it's just him as scum, and then we can just go from there depending on who the remaining scum kill tonight.
If Dunnstral is town, then what the fuck was the point of that role?

Now that I think about it, it's a bit hard to believe that two people would both be scum in two separate games

I expect that the scumteams for all three games were fully randomized, but that still seems... odd.

It's a bit out there enough that it's probably just too improbable compared to the role just being genuine.

Here you go

Nothing has changed since then

[Titus]

mastina, I don't see you blowing your load d1 re:bulletproof unless you planned to fake a no kill. Technically, none of the wagon analysis excludes you from being scum. I also don't see scum shooting you n1. This means we have a braindead and/or bulletproof protective.

[Titus]

@RR, Extremely dumb question.

Does your sensor need to be on a hammered wagon?

[Titus]

Vote Count Theme.3.09

Dunnstral (E-1):

mastina, Titus, T3, House,

Amy Dunne(E-4):

Dunnstral,

House (E-4):

Demon Lord

Titus (E-5):

T3 (E-5):

Radical Rat (E-5):

mastina (E-5):

Alyssa the Lamb(E-5):

No Elim (0):

Not Voting (3):

Alyssa the Lamb, Amy Dunne, Radical Rat,

With 8 alive, it takes

5

to murder/death/kill or

4

to choose not to.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2021-12-24 02:00:00).

If we went with this wagon

1 change tells us House T3 and I are conftown.
2 changes means House and I have one scum. This is separate from Amy/Dunn.

Then we no eliminate.

-----

If Option A, then we get if RR town then T3 House and I conftown.
That forces Amy/Dunn with Alyssa (or mastina if moonlogicky).
If Option B, then we get Amy/Dunn with Alyssa/House but House/Titus has a scum. So we get Amy/Dunn with House.

It burns our no elimination early, but the result is better.

[Titus]

I still think we eliminate Dunn. My question is today or tomorrow better.

[Titus]

If we hammer !townDunn
1 change breaks the game mod error.
2 changes means that T3 and I are conftown. House may or may not be scum.
3+ changes is impossible.


If we hammer !ScumDunn

1 change means me, T3, House and Amy are conftown. The last is redundant given scum dunn. This makes the last scum Alyssa or mastina.
2 changes is impossible.
3 changes means House is scum.
4 plus is impossible.

We largely get the same info. We don't blow a lim.

We can then eliminate Dunn after no elim.

[Titus]

Basically I see three options
1) no elimination, analyze L minus 1 on Dunn.
2) Eliminate Dunn but analyze the L minus 1 wagon.
3) Eliminate Dunn and analyze the wagon, including the hammer.

[Titus]

I want to know if 1 and 2 are options

[Titus]

Actually scratch that. Hammering Dunn gives better info on House.

[Titus]

So I just went on a tangent for nothing.

[Radical Rat]

@RR, Extremely dumb question.

Does your sensor need to be on a hammered wagon?

Wouldn't work the way you want it anyway, at least not without 100% participation from every living slot.

It does Not have to be the hammered wagon, but it Does have to be a wagon that exists at end of day, so I couldn't just pick the pre-hammer VC.

[Dunnstral]

I wish I had thought to ask Cheeky about the conversations about the Universal Backup before she flipped, but I'm kinda struggling to see how this claim works unless he's scum with exactly Titus and nobody else.

With Dunnstral's role in the game, it's still a lot more likely that it's just him as scum, and then we can just go from there depending on who the remaining scum kill tonight.
If Dunnstral is town, then what the fuck was the point of that role?

Now that I think about it, it's a bit hard to believe that two people would both be scum in two separate games

I expect that the scumteams for all three games were fully randomized, but that still seems... odd.

It's a bit out there enough that it's probably just too improbable compared to the role just being genuine.

Here you go

Nothing has changed since then

Page 113 and all you've got is that I'm scum for being a double voter?

[Dunnstral]

And some gamblers fallacy too

[House]

The fact Titus is even humoring the possibility that I'm scum here is a little depressing, tbh.

[mastina]

Thank you mastina that post should probably go in MD post game, I found it really helpful.

Btw Cheeky I realize this was basically an attempt at buttering me up, but I unironically am working at least mentally in my head on making basically that.

I want to make an MD thread which covers why setup balance doesn't translate from micros to minis (covering my suspected reasons for it, value of scum; ease of blending; ease of genuine suspicion generation; more players to be suspicious of; more time to kill competent players), opens to closeds, general balance practices for a mini (3-4 moderately-strong PRs, emphasis moderate for 4, emphasis strong for 3), situationally-strong roles and the things about them that you need to take into account with design, swinginess/complexity (particularly, commentary on the snowballing of a lead), general rules of balance (e.g. the focus on the average outcome, not a focus on the extremes, but with care taken to the ease of the extremes), the gradual transition to more fun, and maybe (not sure on this) a section about 'flair' vs. 'theme' (flairs being something unique about your setup that makes it stand out, themes being when it goes too far and would be better as a theme game in spite of its technical normality).
Probably also mentioning how site standards shift (there's one very good example although I'll need to double-check my review threads to find what I want to say there).

It's all in my head now, so I'm writing this mostly as a "do not forget these things", but I'll be making it soon enough. I'll need to wait for this game to end obv, but that should give me time to also bring in my notes from postgames in Normals.

It makes it MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for the scumteam to have NOT identified AT LEAST 2/3 of the town's prs…by the end of NIGHT TWO.
…But when I show you the math, you'll agree that it'd take the town's BEST case scenario to have a CHANCE.

This will be part of it (and on that note, I'll still be showing said math, just it'll have to wait until tomorrow since I got distracted today ), btw.

I don't see how RR must be scum. Eli5.

Simple.
If Dunnstral is town, then per RR's claimed result, that'd make Amy Dunne scum.

Except, Amy Dunne cannot be scum with House given how hard she was pushing him in BOTH games.

If you are town, then that leaves the only possible scum for Amy Dunne as Lady Chloe--and I don't buy that as being the scumteam. If the choice is "RR, the slot that's looked sketchy" vs. "Lady Chloe, the towniest slot in the game", I'm going to eliminate RR ten times out of ten.

[mastina]

If Dunn flips Town, it's Amy and House OR Alyssa.
I haven't done the math to know if it's safe to eliminate me first in that case, but I'm probably dead tonight anyway, so I guess it'll all get cleared up then

We have one spare elimination, so we can afford to miss--once. (Unless a scum's kill fails again in which case we gain another mislim since we're on evens right now.)

This is both why I want a Dunnstral elimination today, and if he flips scum, an RR elimination tomorrow assuming scum leave you alive. Because it removes unsafe variables, it generates the most possible information, and it gives us the clearest best endgame state possible where we know the most we can possibly know and we have all the info we can have. When we get to mylo, I want to have there be no paranoia, no take-our-word-for-it scenarios, for it to be as close as we can get to having taken every variable into account.

A Dunnstral townflip means that you'd be scum since again, Amy Dunne's not scum with House and your claimed result would require Amy Dunne to be scum. Meaning the only possible scumteams would be RR + buddy (could even be Amy honestly) or Amy + Lady Chloe (and the latter I refuse to believe). However, that's only if Dunnstral flips town. Which he almost certainly isn't. It's good to prepare ahead in the worst case scenario where he IS town, but I just think that he's scum. I've thought Dunn was scum in one game from the beginning, I think his Demon Lord claim was scum-motivated, and I think the Demon Lord is a scum role because I have a suspicion that the scum having two roles to fuck with voting mechanics was a deliberate design choice on Jingle's part to give them counterplay to the wagon analyzer. (For the record, the UB being scum still fits that as the potential for the final scum to inherit the role would make it three for three in roles to fuck with the wagon analyzer. Which is another reason why I think RR could be scum regardless of Dunnstral's alignment.)

A Dunnstral scumflip means one scum left, and we have the knowledge that Amy Dunne is conftown (via RR's claimed result) and T3 is conftown (since T3 can only be scum if RR is, Dunn flipping scum means T3 can't be scum due to only one scum alive). Scum can kill one in the night, but not both. Meaning that we go into tomorrow with Titus (basically conftown already), RR, myself (essentially confirmed), 1/2 of our conftown, House, and Lady Chloe--
Eliminating RR tomorrow is safe. If RR is the last scum, it's the correct move to have made.
If RR is not scum, it basically creates a "1v1" between House and Lady Chloe. (Lady Chloe is not scum btw, so...)

That, aside from how RR is going to generate another result.

And if the scum kill RR to prevent that result, we've got even better!
Scum killing RR means that Amy Dunne and Dunnstral are both alive and conftown--with Titus as basically conftown and me as basically confirmed, you know what that means? We have 6 alive, a mislim, and literally precisely two scumspects, in House and Lady Chloe. (And it's not Lady Chloe.)

So the scum cannot kill RR, meaning RR should get that extra result, meaning that RR should give us the extra info tomorrow, and we can confirm the info by eliminating RR as to prevent the scenario of RR being scum bullshitting.

[mastina]

I also don't see scum shooting you n1.

It's possible imo if and only if the scum have a roleblocker--the scum might've (erroneously) thought that they could block my activation of my bulletproof and kill me. (I did say that I didn't think it'd work that way, but the scum very easily could've missed that part of my claim, since it was in a small section in parenthesis that was easy to miss. So if scum weren't reading every line of my claim, they could've thought that they could roleblock my activation of the bulletproof.)

However, I do admit it's not certain. It's very possible that there's a town killstopper role who was either roleblocked or couldn't act (or scum strongmanned Cheeky) the night Cheeky died.

As in, said killstopper could very possibly have been responsible. (There's no doubt in my mind that the killstopper exists and is real; you of all people Titus should have reason to agree. But the cause of the N1 no-kill isn't as certain.)

[Dunnstral]

Lady Chloe has been killed in the Mini Theme! She was:

Spoiler: Mini Theme

Welcome, Lady Chloe to Triplicate Mafia: Carbon Paper. A love letter to Bureaucracy at its finest.

You are

Form 1040

, aligned with the Paperwork faction.