Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

you thought all three of imaginality, baltar, and tanner were town?

[Lukewarm]

I just scanned Pav's iso, and he does not look like he is solving, like at all. So far he has had "I swapped, so Luke scum" and that was basically it. Nothing about anything Ari and I said day 1 or post swap on trying to sort the two of us. But also a weird call for me to vote him and a joke about voting Ari. It does not feel like he is playing to win this game.

And basically nothing on anyone in either other game.

Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.

Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wall

I was leaning Q there for scum.

This was literally the only read in his whole iso that was not me. And it was that Q is scum, after being asked directly, and it did not come with any reasonings what so ever.

Like, it feels like he has just decided to avoid giving associative all together. Possibly means that q is +town, because would someone who is avoiding giving associatives have their only read of the game be fos'ing their buddy?

----

And thinking about the swap dynamics for scum pav.

ScumPav + Scum Implo swap -- does not seem like an smart swap. Implo had a decent chance to win the keep. So I think that that scum team swaps Pav with the scum at the gate, since Tanner already thought that imaginality and Baltar were both scum. Gives Pav the greatest chance of not walking into a completely unwinnable game.

ScumPav , Town implo swap -- This makes some sense. scum toog or Q would have a hard time winning the Keep, and pav would have a hard time winning the wall. So that swap seems like it would be to sacrifice the keep to increase their odds at the wall. Which, I think means that the scum at the gate thinks they have a decent chance or winning the gate if they accepted straight tanking the keep.

[Prism]

Fortress Status Report 1.1

Gate	Guardian Votes
VP Baltar (1)	imaginality (534)
imaginality (0)
Not voting (2)	VP Baltar, Tanner

Keep	Guardian Votes
Lukewarm (0)
Aristeia (0)
Pavowski (0)
Not voting (3)	Lukewarm, Aristeia, Pavowski

Wall	Guardian Votes
Toogeloo (0)
numberQ (0)
implosion (0)
Not voting (3)	Toogeloo, numberQ, implosion

The score is 0-0.

The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-01-06 15:00:00).

The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-01-07 06:25:00).

[Toogeloo]

I'm struggling reading these walls. My brain isn't working right now lol. Every wall post looks like wifom discussion, like "It could be A, maybe B, probably not C (though that isn't off the table), maybe D?"

[Toogeloo]

I still think we should flip the IC's group first since I believe all of those slots will give us the most info to work with.

Are we allowed to vote there, or is it strictly like a MeLo thing and only the people in the group can vote?

[Toogeloo]

I'm not finding nearly as many reads regarding numberQ from other players as I am about implosion. If people from outside our game can give reads there, I appreciate it.

[Toogeloo]

Are we allowed to vote there, or is it strictly like a MeLo thing and only the people in the group can vote?

When I say this, I know our vote doesn't matter I guess, but is there a reason we can't vote just so that people not in the games are held accountable as well? Or will it not matter?

[implosion]

Implosion,

if the game is at 1-1-1 preswap,

why do you think you get flipped to wall instead of gate?

Swapping keep/gate and keeping wall intact would give town a lot of information in the sense that toog/nQ/DArby were all "collective scumreads" and keeping them all there would tell us that there's actually only one scum amongst them.

Lots of other possible reasons too, I mean, maybe scum thought the current 1v1 at Gate was better than the equivalent 1v1 where I'm deciding instead of Tanner. Or that they didn't want to swap Tanner to Keep because of the Tanner/Ari situation. Or that they thought swapping me with whichever one of VP/imaginality is town would give a worse 1v1 there. Or maybe they thought they were only going to win wall and going to lose the other two no matter what if they swapped between them, or something. I can think of a lot of possible reasonings. Probably it comes down to, in some form, VP/imaginality whichever is scum thinking they could win this 1v1.

[implosion]

I'm struggling reading these walls. My brain isn't working right now lol. Every wall post looks like wifom discussion, like "It could be A, maybe B, probably not C (though that isn't off the table), maybe D?"

Yeah this is why I was saying we should go back to traditional scum hunting.

[Aristeia]

Probably it comes down to, in some form, VP/imaginality whichever is scum thinking they could win this 1v1.

This is more or less what I thought.

Between the two of them, which do you think is more likely to believe they will win?

[implosion]

This is more or less what I thought.

Between the two of them, which do you think is more likely to believe they will win?

I don't know; I don't know either of them especially well. If there is strong reason to believe one of them would think it more strongly than the other, then that would be a decent reason to read them as scum, but only assuming we do gate last, since doing the other two locations first would confirm whether or not the situation was 1/1/1, and this logic obviously disintegrates if it was actually 2/1/0.

[Pavowski]

WRT Luke's wall on me:

Spoiler:

I just scanned Pav's iso, and he does not look like he is solving, like at all. So far he has had "I swapped, so Luke scum" and that was basically it. Nothing about anything Ari and I said day 1 or post swap on trying to sort the two of us. But also a weird call for me to vote him and a joke about voting Ari. It does not feel like he is playing to win this game.

And basically nothing on anyone in either other game.

Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.

Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wall

I was leaning Q there for scum.

This was literally the only read in his whole iso that was not me. And it was that Q is scum, after being asked directly, and it did not come with any reasonings what so ever.

Like, it feels like he has just decided to avoid giving associative all together. Possibly means that q is +town, because would someone who is avoiding giving associatives have their only read of the game be fos'ing their buddy?

----

And thinking about the swap dynamics for scum pav.

ScumPav + Scum Implo swap -- does not seem like an smart swap. Implo had a decent chance to win the keep. So I think that that scum team swaps Pav with the scum at the gate, since Tanner already thought that imaginality and Baltar were both scum. Gives Pav the greatest chance of not walking into a completely unwinnable game.

ScumPav , Town implo swap -- This makes some sense. scum toog or Q would have a hard time winning the Keep, and pav would have a hard time winning the wall. So that swap seems like it would be to sacrifice the keep to increase their odds at the wall. Which, I think means that the scum at the gate thinks they have a decent chance or winning the gate if they accepted straight tanking the keep.

This is not a great excuse, but I've replaced into a slot that is pretty widely scumread and lots of people want to leash the vote in this particular minigame. Add to that a family thing today and well, best I can say is ... My bad, and I will try a bit harder tonight/tomorrow.

That said, you (Luke) are SRing me pretty hard. I take it that means you'd rather vote Ari right now?

@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?

I do need to look more closely at the other minis, but my first thoughts are for this one. Replacing in, my goal is just to not blow this particular mini for town.

Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.

[Aristeia]

Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.

I don't see why Scum!Luke would alienate you, if you become convinced he is scum, don't you just vote for me and then he loses?

It seems like a lot of effort for not much gain.

[Aristeia]

@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?

If I had to vote now I would pick Luke over you.

[Pavowski]

I'm not finding nearly as many reads regarding numberQ from other players as I am about implosion. If people from outside our game can give reads there, I appreciate it.

Tanner? You asked for my experience with Luke. To put a fine point on it, the case he's making here? This sounds like scum!Luke trying to make sure I don't get a foothold to keep it 1v1 with Ari.

I don't see why Scum!Luke would alienate you, if you become convinced he is scum, don't you just vote for me and then he loses?

It seems like a lot of effort for not much gain.

Disagree. If he's scum, he has to contend with the possibility that one of us will vote the other. If he can scumlock me, he doesn't have to worry about you voting me. It's one less way for him to lose here.

[Pavowski]

@ari, same question. If you had to vote right now, would it be me or Luke?

If I had to vote now I would pick Luke over you.

Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?

[Aristeia]

I don't think it's very realistic for him to be worried about me voting for you when you haven't done anything?


However if he pushes you too hard and makes you think he is mafia, he does have to worry about you voting for me.

[Aristeia]

Fair. What do you need to hear from me to give me a chance at winning you over?

I mean if you're locking Luke in scum trying to shade you I don't see why it would be me voting you, wouldn't it make more sense for you to vote for me?

[Tanner]

i'll just chime in to say that, pav, i would like to hear your opinion on the other two games, not only on your own, when you've read up.

[Aristeia]

I love the chiseled chin look

[Tanner]

of course, don't let me distract you, keep the current convo going, just like. eventually, don't forget to weigh in on the rest. kthx

[Aristeia]

it's hard not to be distracted by you

[Tanner]

ari, you consistently manage to genuinely put a smile on my face, i'm gonna be heartbroken if you're scum here.

[Pavowski]

Gonna drop an edible and drop some spicy takes on the proper 1v1 tonight, buckle up

[Aristeia]

ari, you consistently manage to genuinely put a smile on my face, i'm gonna be heartbroken if you're scum here.

This makes me happy even if we lose here <3

I am town with you so in the end we shall be together no matter what.