Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[RH9]

read the game, give a solve, or at least weigh in on every single minigame

so like yes lol what kinda question is that

pedit: @rh9

I ISO people usually for games which I replace into.

[VP Baltar]

meh, while we wait - baltar, if we're to flip keep first. would any flip in the keep have a significant effect on your read of the wall?

I'm not sure. The wall has felt really impenetrable to me, mostly because Toog and NQ are kind of like wallpaper. Obv Toog was sick, so nothing can be done about that. Last night when I was reading, I really struggled for some reason with NQ's posting. I don't know if it's the writing style or the content or what...but I just instantly glazed over at all his posts.

I do think Ari's town read on NQ is VERY weird. So maybe if I'm right about Ari, I'd take time to deep dive NQ to get a better read in relation there. Maybe he has posted some things about her that are enlightening?

If I'm being completely transparent, I was a bit weirded out by implosion jumping on my Ari scumread last night. But that's why I asked him about what led up to that for him. Maybe I'm on the money and he is trying to distance or make her look better with a huge spat? IDK. I could just be getting paranoid because I stated an early town read on him and when that's reciprocated it feels like pocketing.

[Aristeia]

the most infuriating thing about reading your meta is that you are completely capable of being this obtuse as town and it's quite tilting to me

[VP Baltar]

Like it's absolutely mindboggling to me how you could possibly think I am scum trying to shade the shit out of you and annihilate you.

Because I have been very clear that I am happy to flip first and let Tanner see whether my reads are coming from Town!Me.

So how exactly is my play scum motivated? You think tanner is going to look at me

grilling the shit out of you

and treating imag with kiddie gloves and then look at my red role pm and think that I'm playing some weird reverse psych trick on him?

Like your entire mindset is strange and alien to me.

First, huge LOL at the bolded. Your questions feel very pointless to me and don't feel like pressure at all. "why did you do what you did?" "why does that make you town?" ---that's not grilling in my book. Those are busy work questions.

On to your question: I think if you flip red, I look much better, yes.

However, the argument you are making doesn't even make sense. I had not stated my suspicion that you and imaginality were playing off each other's posts and trying to shape the optimal game for each of you until just now. To suggest you'd never attack me in that way because your red flip would prove my theory true....doesn't make any sense because that theory was not stated at the time you made the posts.

Unless you're claiming you saw my points coming before now....which I don't believe. It didn't even stick out to me until last night when I was catching up.

[imaginality]

@Tanner I'm here

[VP Baltar]

Serious question though Ari, you have both said you'll vote when you're ready and that you'll let Tanner decide who you will vote? So which is it? Also, who is scum in your game from your perspective?

[Aristeia]

you seem to think I am trying to make imag look better and make you look worse

but what is the point of me doing this if I am going to flip as mafia?

[Pavowski]

Pav is there a reason you ignored 1055, and instead just responded to/with a bunch of fluff ?

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

If I get forced to vote, I'm polling the room and voting with the majority. I am not gonna be responsible for blowing the Keep when I'm really struggling with these two.

You can hold me to this.

And, I can see why you might think this would make you seem townie, but this does not ke me feel better about you here. Basically it feels like you are avoiding committing to a read on either one of us :/

I didn't deliberately skip it, I'm just accepting that you have scumlocked me for this game and some arguments sort of lose their luster, with that in mind. What would you like me to say? I didn't say this to "seem townie", just to put down a marker since it seems likely that I will be the one "forced" to vote here. I may not be able to convince people I'm town, but I will at least commit to voting how the group wants me to vote.

[Tanner]

oh thank fuck i can finally post this garbage:

okay, so while the game was in the night phase, i thought about this game once or twice. i thought how 414 is a post that makes baltar town some 99% of the time in this game, at least. "but why?" listen. i could remember him saying something similar as town in mini normal 2195. how he can flip reads from just one post. and the fact that he's calling to that here is very townie i think. because from my experience of him as a scum player, he's careful. he tries to make his trajectory make sense and be consistent. when i was recently rereading his iso from the one scumgame i played with him, his read changes usually looked like "well, i reread this player's iso, and..." or "i went to meta reserach, and...". changing reads in-the-moment from a singular post, so completely gut based, is something that is

difficult

for scum to fake. so i don't think scum!baltar has any reason to be doing this callback. it's difficult to fake, it's easy to get tripped up on it when you're faking gut reads, and it doesn't really look that townie anyway. and i guarantee you he does not remember that he said that some 9 months ago and that this is an elaborate pocket attempt.

so, i fully expected that i'm gonna enter this game, see that baltar is the ic, and that i'm gonna look like a moron because i'm gonna present a batshit insane meta towncase on the ic and i'll get hammered and scum will win and etc.

now, that did not happen.

that is a problem.

that is a problem because, every. single. time. i thought "ok, X is [alignment], so Y will happen" when i was entering final 3, and then Y

didn't

happen, it turned out that X

wasn't

[alignment].

Spoiler: some meta that is not really relevant but shows examples of the above

thinking luca is town, i am going to die? a different person died, luca was scum (2192). thinking outworld is scum and that ico is going to die? i died, outworld was town (2201). thinking salsa will die and that chaosomega is scum? nope, enchant died, salsa was scum, fuck you (2239).

it works in the opposite direction, too. jungle oligarchy, night 2 - baltar and i have been driving that town. either one of us dies tonight, or he's scum. i died, he was town. lovely.

so. when i entered the night, knowing i called vp town prior to day end, and when i was pretty sure that he's town and he's gonna be ic and i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

yeah, he didn't get ic'ed. do you see my problem here?

[Aristeia]

Serious question though Ari, you have both said you'll vote when you're ready and that you'll let Tanner decide who you will vote? So which is it? Also, who is scum in your game from your perspective?

If I am 100% sure I will vote without input/permission and leave final reads in the thread.

If Tanner wants me to vote for someone I will give final reads and vote however he wants me to.

Whichever happens first will happen first. It's not a contradiction.

I still think Luke is by far townier than Pavo. He is playing an exceptionally good game if he is mafia here.

[VP Baltar]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

[RH9]

Serious question though Ari, you have both said you'll vote when you're ready and that you'll let Tanner decide who you will vote? So which is it? Also, who is scum in your game from your perspective?

If I am 100% sure I will vote without input/permission and leave final reads in the thread.

If Tanner wants me to vote for someone I will give final reads and vote however he wants me to.

Whichever happens first will happen first. It's not a contradiction.

I still think Luke is by far townier than Pavo. He is playing an exceptionally good game if he is mafia here.

I beg to differ about Lukewarm being townier than Pavowski. I thought that 1032 felt off for his confidence on his reads. Meanwhile, 1060 feels like Pavowski is trying to do something. I don't think that scum would volunteer themselves for a vote in order to avoid looking LAMIST.

[VP Baltar]

Whichever happens first will happen first. It's not a contradiction.

Eh maybe. It just seems like you're angling a bit and trying to seem townie with the Tanner thing when maybe your real intention is to just vote in a way that's beneficial to you.

Why are you townreading Luke again? just bullet points

[Tanner]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

[imaginality]

The problem is you town reading VP for that post.
Like, if that's his town playstyle he has every reason to say 'this is how I play as town'.

So I don't think 414 in and of itself is particularly +town.
I think if he *is* flipping reads all over the place then you'd have stronger grounds to see that as his town play rather than scum play (if your take on his meta is right).

However in this game the only reads you could reasonably say he's flipped are you and me which are both forced flips due to the mini game. He's been sniping at Ari throughout and he's been pretty vague on the wall and he's been calling implosion town throughout.

So I think whatever town cred you're giving him for his "this is how I play as town" post is outweighed by his actual play.

[RH9]

Whichever happens first will happen first. It's not a contradiction.

Eh maybe. It just seems like you're angling a bit and trying to seem townie with the Tanner thing when maybe your real intention is to just vote in a way that's beneficial to you.

Why are you townreading Luke again? just bullet points

I agree. I can't think of a reason why Lukewarm is getting TRed, unless it is by his scumbuddy or pocketed Town, as of 1032.

[imaginality]

ok but what's the point of applying pressure to me?

I am gathering information to make reads off.

I don't really care if the scum think they are going to play off that because I almost never put all my thoughts on the table until I'm ready to push something.

I will go all out tunneling someone to see how they act and then call them town. Ill flip on locktown reads ive had all game if i see something solidly scummy. Good luck to scum trying to plan off my reads, because even I can't do that.

Also it's not like he posted his "this is how I play as town" post unprompted, it was a defence to Ari asking him why he backed off his line of questioning of her.

[Aristeia]

It feels incredibly anti-wincon for him to be continually towncasing me without reservation over and over again.

The thought process that he applied to reading me makes a lot of sense for how he would approach reading me if he thought I was who he thought I was.

He is not hedging at all in terms of his read, really not leaving himself any backdoor to wiggle out of.

Comparatively Pavo feels more fluid and isn't really hitting some of the same notes. I feel like he volunteered to come to the Keep to lose because his slot is a bit poisoned.

Reading popcorn betw scum luke v town pavo, pavo lacks some of the conviction he had in that game and is more jokey/memey.

[Lukewarm]

RH9 - how much of the game have you read? My iso? Pavs iso? Looked at town or scum cases against either of us?

Or are you just trying to be contrary?

[Aristeia]

rh9 can you do a readslist with one of your cool charts?

[VP Baltar]

However in this game the only reads you could reasonably say he's flipped are you and me which are both forced flips due to the mini game.

That's not accurate. I actually felt your "case" on Darby made him look scummy. I also did not have ari as scum in my initial gut reads at the start of the day. Anyhow.

[Tanner]

ok but what's the point of applying pressure to me?

I am gathering information to make reads off.

I don't really care if the scum think they are going to play off that because I almost never put all my thoughts on the table until I'm ready to push something.

I will go all out tunneling someone to see how they act and then call them town. Ill flip on locktown reads ive had all game if i see something solidly scummy. Good luck to scum trying to plan off my reads, because even I can't do that.

Also it's not like he posted his "this is how I play as town" post unprompted, it was a defence to Ari asking him why he backed off his line of questioning of her.

hm? wasn't that when she was asking him why he's questioning her in the first place?

[VP Baltar]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

Like you would have posted it after the day start?

[Tanner]

i'm gonna look stupid on day two because i'll have a Good Town Case on the ic?

I'm not following why this makes you look stupid?

"hey guys, i was like, really sure that baltar is town but oopsie i guess he's the ic now, i guess imaginality must be scum, i totally didn't make this towncase up to make myself look better during the night"

maybe scummy is a better word there

Like you would have posted it after the day start?

yeah. imagined i was gonna walk into the game, see that you're the ic, still post my case because what else am i to do, and i'll be called out as "suspicious that you have a towncase on the person that just so happened to be the ic, huh?"

[Tanner]

anyway, that is what has been going through my head once day started. i was dead certain i was gonna walk into the game, see that baltar's the ic, and face an uphill 1v1 battle. instead... i was made the ic. and my first gut reaction was that i was very wrong somewhere.