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[Andresvmb]

Emotion gets dismissed a lot as not alignment indicative, but honestly, that’s not true. T3 wrote that they thought Scorpious early floundering was NAI. I really strongly disagree. I think Scorpious reaction to being wagoned early in the game screams of Town. But what do I know.

[Andresvmb]

Retti might actually be efforting too much for Scum but in that case, I would argue that their read of Scorpious is too based on tone. There’s not enough strategic thinking here. Scorpious could be Scum I suppose but where is the heated argument? Why are two players saying they will sheep you DW and everyone else alive is basically shading the slot? Are you telling me both Enchant and Natalya are Scum with Scorpious and they’re trying to avoid scrutiny? I guess that’s possible?

[Andresvmb]

Just some questions I have. Anyway, I will try and keep reading after lunch and maybe some brilliant idea pops into my head. Or maybe not and I’m stuck with superficial thoughts and some musings.

[Andresvmb]

Just some questions I have. Anyway, I will try and keep reading after lunch and maybe some brilliant idea pops into my head. Or maybe not and I’m stuck with superficial thoughts and some musings.

[Andresvmb]

Forget that for a moment, fua can you tell me what your actual reads are right now? Just in a list, no reasoning.

Town:
Retti
Andante
Worst
Azaariah

Null:
Oman
Dwlee
Natalya

Scum:
Uglyduck
T3
Scorpious

Not playing:
Egix
Andres

Some of these are conditional, though. Bottom three isn’t a scumteam so much as ‘the three most likely to be scum’. Egix and Andres are unrankable because they aren’t actually in this game.

If this is the guy we’re listening to, then we’re surely going to lose. 2 of the Null have flipped Town or are Confirmed Town, and 2 of the Scum have flipped Town. Yet where is the reevaluation? Why such confidence that Scorpious is Scum? Fascinating isn’t it?

[Andresvmb]

Actually, on second thought, I feel like Azaariah’s flip will yield more information than T3’s even if I think they’re a little less likely to be scum.

VOTE: Azaariah

I feel like if they flip red, that makes Scorpious, Andres, and Gamma look a lot better than they do now. Worst case scenario this flip gives us a lot of insight into alignments through association and we get rid of a meat shield for scum to hide behind.

That’s E-1.

It’s also somewhat hilarious that the player they listed towards the top of the Town list is a player they voted for “information”.

Anyway, I wouldn’t trust fua for shit is I guess what I’m saying.

[Andresvmb]

Collectively btw, this is the worst Town game I’ve ever seen hahaha we’ve only built end of day wagons on Town. So wagon analysis is totally worthless since every important vote has been on Town.

[Andresvmb]

Btw DW how often do you see Scum get voted up by two Town, and they vote outside of the wagon that has formed on them? Clearly what you do there is try and argue forcefully that one of the people voting you is Scum, and then if you get executed they get NK’ed anyway since they’ve basically cleared themselves. Why is Scorpious voting for Retti of all people?

[Dwlee99]

Collectively btw, this is the worst Town game I’ve ever seen hahaha we’ve only built end of day wagons on Town. So wagon analysis is totally worthless since every important vote has been on Town.

Yea that's a good point

Anyway you should save your notes in notepad or something til after mass claim imo

[Retti]

Emotion gets dismissed a lot as not alignment indicative, but honestly, that’s not true. T3 wrote that they thought Scorpious early floundering was NAI. I really strongly disagree. I think Scorpious reaction to being wagoned early in the game screams of Town. But what do I know.

Retti might actually be efforting too much for Scum but in that case, I would argue that their read of Scorpious is too based on tone. There’s not enough strategic thinking here. Scorpious could be Scum I suppose but where is the heated argument? Why are two players saying they will sheep you DW and everyone else alive is basically shading the slot? Are you telling me both Enchant and Natalya are Scum with Scorpious and they’re trying to avoid scrutiny? I guess that’s possible?

First of all, isn't the first quote basically you reading him off tone in terms of his reaction to being wagoned? Second of all, my suspicion of him

isn't

based on tone here - I even said that,

if anything

, the tone makes me feel like he is town, but his voting record is suspect, he dropped off in terms of activity which could indicate scum lurking once they're no longer actively being pressured, and even now at this stage of the game he seems unwilling to commit to any scumreads

[Retti]

Oh right D1 VT?

He didn't explicitly claim but that was what I assumed with his "give up" post, basically

[Retti]

Actually, on second thought, I feel like Azaariah’s flip will yield more information than T3’s even if I think they’re a little less likely to be scum.

VOTE: Azaariah

I feel like if they flip red, that makes Scorpious, Andres, and Gamma look a lot better than they do now. Worst case scenario this flip gives us a lot of insight into alignments through association and we get rid of a meat shield for scum to hide behind.

That’s E-1.

It’s also somewhat hilarious that the player they listed towards the top of the Town list is a player they voted for “information”.

Anyway, I wouldn’t trust fua for shit is I guess what I’m saying.

Went and checked, they had 834 in between but that is a really odd progression to have

[Retti]

I haven’t really played the game right, no one TRs me, I don’t have any influence, and I haven’t even finished reading every post. Do you think I would try and stick my neck out for a Partner on the brink, or do you think I’m more likely to try and continue the pattern so far of not saying much, laying low, and perhaps hope that a Town member screws up and votes amongst those that have votes out and are Town? I guess you won’t know for sure until after the game is over, but my guess is that I would have hard bussed and try and get some credibility by making some sort of credible argument against Scorpious.

I mean the question is: do you actually think bussing scorpious now would actually give you any credit in a situation where you're scum with him, when other people have been beating the drum for him being scum for a much longer time, and are generally more townread than you?

[Retti]

Btw DW how often do you see Scum get voted up by two Town, and they vote outside of the wagon that has formed on them? Clearly what you do there is try and argue forcefully that one of the people voting you is Scum, and then if you get executed they get NK’ed anyway since they’ve basically cleared themselves. Why is Scorpious voting for Retti of all people?

Like this, this is my problem with that. He is being voted by two people. By rights, he should be considering one of them as scum. But when I tried to press him on it, he wouldn't commit to that and even made a remark about how just because they're voting for him doesn't make them scum. But he had previously stated a scumread on egix, which I literally had to remind him of before he said anything, and he said basically nothing at all about fua, I don't even know what his read on fua is. The problem with this is that I expect a town player to at least be keeping some idea in their head of how they're viewing people, and he should be giving consideration to the people voting him based on whether they're town or scum - if town he should be trying to persuade them to not vote him, if they're scum he should be casing them. He is doing neither and actively refuses to do so.

That fact that he

won't

even push back against them and voted me instead just because I proposed a hypothetical of him being mafia with egixslot makes no sense from a town point of view to me. He basically barely engaged with the votes on him except to make vague insults at them. It's like he doesn't want to crossvote them.

[Andresvmb]

It is absurdly suboptimal as Scum to vote outside of the wagon built on you in MElo. Only a Townie convinced of their own righteousness would do such a thing. That’s what I’m saying.

[Andresvmb]

And my argument is that both the game state and Scorpious’ early tone are making me think that they’re Town. Not to mention that I don’t trust fua for shit, and they’re on the wagon too.

[Andresvmb]

I haven’t really played the game right, no one TRs me, I don’t have any influence, and I haven’t even finished reading every post. Do you think I would try and stick my neck out for a Partner on the brink, or do you think I’m more likely to try and continue the pattern so far of not saying much, laying low, and perhaps hope that a Town member screws up and votes amongst those that have votes out and are Town? I guess you won’t know for sure until after the game is over, but my guess is that I would have hard bussed and try and get some credibility by making some sort of credible argument against Scorpious.

I mean the question is: do you actually think bussing scorpious now would actually give you any credit in a situation where you're scum with him, when other people have been beating the drum for him being scum for a much longer time, and are generally more townread than you?

Probably better than hard defending them and when they inevitably flip (which I’m almost sure they will here anyway) I go down immediately after.

[Andresvmb]

DW has hinted at them being Scum (and placed them top of the list for massclaim), you’re heavily shading the slot, and they have two votes already. As much as I like to think I’m convincing, I’m almost certain Scorpious is going to see the axe here.

[Retti]

It is absurdly suboptimal as Scum to vote outside of the wagon built on you in MElo. Only a Townie convinced of their own righteousness would do such a thing. That’s what I’m saying.

And my argument is that both the game state and Scorpious’ early tone are making me think that they’re Town. Not to mention that I don’t trust fua for shit, and they’re on the wagon too.

Isn't it suboptimal for town too, though? like it's bad play regardless of alignment.

Point taken on fua I guess

I haven’t really played the game right, no one TRs me, I don’t have any influence, and I haven’t even finished reading every post. Do you think I would try and stick my neck out for a Partner on the brink, or do you think I’m more likely to try and continue the pattern so far of not saying much, laying low, and perhaps hope that a Town member screws up and votes amongst those that have votes out and are Town? I guess you won’t know for sure until after the game is over, but my guess is that I would have hard bussed and try and get some credibility by making some sort of credible argument against Scorpious.

I mean the question is: do you actually think bussing scorpious now would actually give you any credit in a situation where you're scum with him, when other people have been beating the drum for him being scum for a much longer time, and are generally more townread than you?

Probably better than hard defending them and when they inevitably flip (which I’m almost sure they will here anyway) I go down immediately after.

*shrug* I've seen a lot crazy stuff and I rule nothing out, hypothetically if you're mafia who is likely to get POE'd out for being inactive all game your best bet is inducing paranoia among people

[Andresvmb]

Yeah I mean not willing to commit to any Scum Reads when at the brink and people are asking for your contributions seems relatively silly, and not something Scum tend to do btw. This is the sort of thing people argue that I never understand. Hedging to leave your options open makes sense in the early part of the game - you don’t know how the game is going to shape up as Scum, the Town are trying to figure out what is what, and you’re better off keeping yourself open. Late in the game? Under severe stress? You’re much better off trying to bury one player and going down in flames if it doesn’t work. It’s far more likely to not result in your immediate death. And on top of that, Scorpious is totally failing to even point to one of two players currently on them? Nah, I’m not buying it. Seems totally idiotic. Even if they were bad Scum, the Team would be coaching them hard to argue forcefully against a player. Maybe even fua. Yet with 3 days to go, nothing. They’re defeated, and Scum in this position with so little information favoring Town is not likely to be acting defeated.

Anyway, this is my perception of the situation. I just want people to at least consider what could be happening here. I still very much expect Scorpious to get executed and we’ll see if the game doesn’t end right then and there.

[Retti]

Can you go into why you think fua is scummy beyond "posts sound bad"?

[Andresvmb]

Can you go into why you think fua is scummy beyond "posts sound bad"?

They’re argument against me in the early part of today was a total discredit based on the fact that I posted several times that I would catch up and have not totally done it. But where are the highlights about me questioning the wagon on T3 (saying that I thought it was unlikely that Scum was questioning the Doctor claim), or defending DW? Nowhere right? That’s what’s called cherry-picking, and it was clearly done to sideline me when they can taste victory. Yeah I argued against Azaariah, which is what Andante did immediately after me with a long-ass post and a vote and they were obviously Town too. So we have all screwed up. But there was no balance there. It’s not like I haven’t posted at all. But they were happy to discredit me and not really try and consider my alignment. Interesting right?

[Andresvmb]

It’s that lack of balance and the total certainty that Scorpious is Scum that has me heavily leaning towards fua being Scum.

[Andresvmb]

In any case, I am just throwing shit at the wall and seeing if my argument makes any sense. I fully expect to lose and I really don’t think I have really helped make this any sort of a fight. Even if for some reason we do not execute Scorpious and we actually vote for fua and they flip Scum, that still leaves a tremendous amount of work. I just don’t see how we get out of this situation. But again, I’m very interested in at least seeing some discussion. If I’m overruled so be it.

[Andresvmb]

Btw Retti, everybody’s voting is suspect. We haven’t executed Scum, and we haven’t as far as I can tell as much as built a counter wagon on them. The largest three wagons D1 were all Town. So that’s a bad argument if I’ve ever seen one.