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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:42 am

Post by fferyllt »

Vote Count 2-6
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(1): ɀefiend,
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(1): Greeting
Dunnstral
(1): Cape90
Cape90
(1): Dunnstral
V0ID
(1): catboi

Not Voting
(2): V0ID, butterchurn


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.



Deadline: January 10, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-01-09 21:00:00)

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- :]
Amid the pressure of great events, a general principle gives no help.

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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:07 am

Post by Greeting »

In post 541, butterchurn wrote:
In post 537, Greeting wrote:V0ID is very clearly not an SE in my mind and therefore is outside the SE pool - I think they could be a partner who is being coached
This was part of the reason I was hesitant, actually, because he doesn't look like he's had much coaching at all, unless the coaching was "yeah just keep doing what you're doing, really lean into the whole unsure newbie thing". Which... not sure if that would be the best advice. Maybe they thought the more uncoached he looked, the more he would just look like newbie town? That gets into WIFOM. I'm going to take a look later at all the scumteam possibilities and see which seem more or less likely. I don't often do that, but I feel like it could be helpful in this situation.
Hm, actually now you got me thinking about this more deeply.

If I were scum in this situation, I'd definitely try to convince
V0ID
to finally settle on something and make a case on someone and try to make it as convincing as possible. I have a rather strong belief that unnecessary hesitation is a scum tell.
V0ID
is doing quite the opposite and his behavior is, admittedly, constant in that even though myself and notably also
catboi
have suspected him for it.

Now that I think of it, I haven't thought of and have no idea what advice would scum
ɀefiend
or
Dunnstral
give. And it's basically impossible to assess if whatever advice there could be is working until either he drops dead or wins the game.
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:09 am

Post by Greeting »

In post 550, fferyllt wrote:
Greeting
(1): ɀefiend,
ɀefiend
(1): Greeting
Dunnstral
(1): Cape90
Cape90
(1): Dunnstral
V0ID
(1): catboi

Not Voting
(2): V0ID, butterchurn
V0ID
should vote
catboi
and we'd have pairs. :D
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:11 am

Post by catboi »

This vote count is an absolute mess.

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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:14 am

Post by butterchurn »

In post 551, Greeting wrote:If I were scum in this situation, I'd definitely try to convince V0ID to finally settle on something and make a case on someone and try to make it as convincing as possible. I have a rather strong belief that unnecessary hesitation is a scum tell. V0ID is doing quite the opposite and his behavior is, admittedly, constant in that even though myself and notably also catboi have suspected him for it.
It does remind me a little of StrangeMatter in 2084, where reading along I read him pretty strongly as town by the end of the game because he was very hesitant and noncommittal even after being heavily called out for it, to the point where I thought there was no way scum would continue in that manner, and he must just be a struggling town. Then he ended up winning as mafia. So I've been fooled by that before.
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:17 am

Post by catboi »

(strangematter uses they/them)
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 am

Post by butterchurn »

Oops, I didn't go back to check, thanks.
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:14 am

Post by V0ID »

In post 544, catboi wrote:
In post 523, V0ID wrote:It's just something I made a mental note of that you seemed to be the most vocal and adamant part of the notknown elim. I could see that being a bold scum play. Also, in my very casual very limited experience with irl mafia I get a red flag when someone proclaims: I am willing to be voted out for the good of the town. which I think you have posted twice so far.

As for catboi, in the same vein of a bold scumplay, I can't help but think that maybe him pointing out all my mistakes and scum markers
(which are fair observations by the way)
is a way to get a miselim on me. I think the general consensus is that scum seem to be hiding pretty well and there is nothing very obvious here... But my posts apparently have obvious mistakes and tells which people are reading as scum markers so catboi is using that. Because they are pretty transparent mistakes and fair observations, it is easy for catboi to throw it on me.
In your experience, are scum typically bold and aggressive? Because I find they rarely are.


I know you're probably tired of hearing this from me, but I feel like you admitting in the parenthetical that my observations are fair is another scumtell. Town tend to be more convinced of their own innocence while scum have the knowledge that they are in fact scum and so tend to respond more passively to accusations they know are correct.
I think my experience is too limited to really answer that question. But, and correct me if I'm wrong anyone, is it not a good and maybe even strong possibility that scum would go for a bolder play in being a more active part and forceful part of elims rather than sorta quietly be a part of them because the latter would be a little too...obvious? I hope that made sense. I am learning that I sometimes struggle to put my thoughts clearly into words in this game.

It seems like a decent play to me:
-be scum
-newbie townie is hitting a lot of tells/markers/mistakes that could be read or twisted as scummy
-look as an opportunity to miselim
-point out the tells/markers/mistakes as they are easy to see and easy to agree with

Sure it is somewhat a bold play to lead the charge or suspicion on a miselim, but eventually even scum will probably have to do that instead of merely hopping on wagons to avoid suspicion on themselves...so why not lead the wagon on someone with obvious and easy-to-see markers? And when the newbie town flips town to everyone, you could pretty much feign "I can't believe X was town....look at all these markers and how scummy he looked."

And no I'm not tired of hearing that. I think the engagement here is probably helpful, in some way.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 am

Post by Cape90 »

In post 536, Greeting wrote:
In post 535, Cape90 wrote:Greeting are you actually serious you did it in Newbie 2084 AS COP? (524). If you are going to do that, don't do it as cop...
...you
were
in that game, how did you fail to notice it? I didn't self-hammer
per se
, but I did self-vote.
i must have not been paying that much attention. Pro tip: Don't do that as PR
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:53 am

Post by Cape90 »

In post 539, catboi wrote:
In post 533, Cape90 wrote:Let's talk about it. First, I already addressed 222 as I literally said that 208 and 215 have no connection to each other, I ignored the post when I made 215. But please shade me later on in 527 for that same post, you really are helping yourself to becoming outed mafia to me. Bolded already resonds to the second part of this funny post.
All right, but he only has your word that you ignored that post when you made it, it's not like it's something he can verify in any way, so I'm not sure why you expect him to take your word at face value here?
Oh right, I am supposed to have a 20 page legal document full of video evidence and what have you's backing up my statements, I forgot that we weren't just playing a game of mafia where literally the only way that I could back this up is through word of my own mouth. OH WHAT HEARSAY.

SMH I ain't calling Judge Judy to verify everything I say. I flip town = I tell truth, I flip mafia = I tell lie. I have flipped neither, but you can use that simple metric right there to determine that lmao.
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:56 am

Post by Cape90 »

In post 543, catboi wrote:
In post 535, Cape90 wrote:well anyway, I shall return later, make sure mafia quake in their boots while I am gone. I am going to say this because I feel like saying this but butterchurn is mafia.
Elaborate?
Because I want mafia to be afraid of the sheer towniness that I have bestowed onto the thread. That is what you are asking about yes?
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:08 pm

Post by catboi »

In post 559, Cape90 wrote:
In post 539, catboi wrote:
In post 533, Cape90 wrote:Let's talk about it. First, I already addressed 222 as I literally said that 208 and 215 have no connection to each other, I ignored the post when I made 215. But please shade me later on in 527 for that same post, you really are helping yourself to becoming outed mafia to me. Bolded already resonds to the second part of this funny post.
All right, but he only has your word that you ignored that post when you made it, it's not like it's something he can verify in any way, so I'm not sure why you expect him to take your word at face value here?
Oh right, I am supposed to have a 20 page legal document full of video evidence and what have you's backing up my statements, I forgot that we weren't just playing a game of mafia where literally the only way that I could back this up is through word of my own mouth. OH WHAT HEARSAY.

SMH I ain't calling Judge Judy to verify everything I say. I flip town = I tell truth, I flip mafia = I tell lie. I have flipped neither, but you can use that simple metric right there to determine that lmao.
Relax, I was critiquing your reasoning, that's all.
In post 560, Cape90 wrote:
In post 543, catboi wrote:
In post 535, Cape90 wrote:well anyway, I shall return later, make sure mafia quake in their boots while I am gone. I am going to say this because I feel like saying this but butterchurn is mafia.
Elaborate?
Because I want mafia to be afraid of the sheer towniness that I have bestowed onto the thread. That is what you are asking about yes?
I meant you thinkin butterchurn is mafia, not sure if that was a serious read or not.
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:46 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 533, Cape90 wrote:Alright Dunn, BET my suspicion on you is based on nothing and it's fake.
Also saying your not towny does imply that you are scummy yes. I was not implying that you feel anti-town but still working in town's best interests or however else you decide to interpolate that.

Let's talk about it. First, I already addressed as I literally said that and have no connection to each other, I ignored the post when I made 215. But please shade me later on in for that same post, you really are helping yourself to becoming outed mafia to me. Bolded already resonds to the second part of this funny post.
I find pretty easy to fake. Just kinda feels like a nothing burger being like, "ah well, I played with these players before and they are town, therefore they are town exs dee, since I am busy spewing both of them as town with this, hopefully they will pocket me :)". Yes I know this section is dramatized, I am just showing how I read this part, even if this isn't the interpolation here, if I am misunderstanding, I am sure Dunnstral is aware they are in a newbie game and should actually provide more details around this in order to back up their statement, otherwise, me and many others dunno what they are talking about. Also what is up with the whole "edit:" thing.
Well that was entirely too many words for such a simple post.
But as silly as it sounds, I buy them at least trying to pocket catboi. When Dunnstal was talking about suspecting me and V0id in . I had my concerns in about this not on me, but on V0id who they have not talked about at all. You know what Dunn told me? Told us I should say? Well it's in of course where they claim they agree with catboi's which... is like a sentence. Compelling. And while I see glimpses of stuff there, yeahhhhh meh. Also I make excuses all the time as town, in fact probably more, I just straight up actively consciously avoid the thread as scum. I know I haven't been super active this game, but I sure have put more effort this game then Dunnstral, and this day 2 kinda felt a bit flimsy from me IMO. You know what the cherry on top of all of this is? Dunn hasn't inteacted with ANY of V0id's content at all, absolute gold.
Do I have to point out the last response in Dunnstral's ? It is not very good. So Dunn goes right out shading catboi's being like "oh I disagree with most of these reads." And you felt the need to point it out because?
I think is really really compelling, good job. Really sold me on Greeting with your post there, another random suspicion that just so happened to pop up. Out of thin air edition. doesn't explain it try again.
Do I have to laugh at how little conviction Dunn's postings have at all up to the point where Dunn shades me for having a lack of conviction ? Honestly it's kind of offensive.
Being more scummy then your scum game does not automatically loop back around to you being town Dunn, you sure have not been TWTBAW. No it just makes you look like mafia lol.
Dunnstral if you are town, you needed to step it right up. I am.

That is my performative and dramatized PSA on Dunnstral the Menace. All accolades for this flipping mafia will go to me and make sure the next day to tinfoil me for bussing so I know who not to kill because of the Newbie 2084 game if you catch my drift.

Thank you.
I'm not sure why you brought up a different game where I was scum then if you admit I'm not playing like that
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:47 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Is it right to say that you are accusing or suspecting all of me, v0id, zefiend, and butterchurn all at the same time?
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:26 pm

Post by catboi »

Right, so...I don't typically do something like this, this is very much an experimental approach for me, but I thought I'd try something different based on the info we have to work with. With only 7 alive, that limits the number of potential scum team pairings considerably, and from my POV there are only 15 possible mafia teams. I want to see which teams I can rule out due to being unlikely.

In general I strongly believe that before players are flipped, you should focus on individual scumminess, as team hunting often leads people down incorrect paths (as it has for me on multiple occasions), but I do believe that being able to rule out potential teams and narrow down the possibilities for mafia is a useful tool for scumhunting. If a player has no potential partners in a game they're just town. If you restrict the teams down to a few people it gives you a better chance of hitting scum with your elimination.



Cape90/Dunnstral - don't see this ever being a thing. with the cop dead, bussing isn't a bad play but cape and dunn have been taking potshots at each other since day 1 and he vigor with which cape is going after dunnstral doesn't look like a bus.

Cape90/Void - I do not think this is likely to be a thing because of the way Void latched on to the early suspicion on cape in . Panic busses are a thing but this strikes me to be far more likely to be opportunism on void's part if he's scum. cape's own posts about void aren't as conclusive as he's very in between on them

Cape90/zefiend - doesn't feel like a bus and I don't think cape tries for that on day 1 in a 9p setup.

butterchurn/zefiend - I don't think this is the team because of zefiend taking a chunk of his wallpost specifically to call out to butterchurn and discuss a logical argument. It's too oddly specific an interaction to be distancing and I don't see him reaching out to a partner specifically.

Greeting/butterchurn - was probably not a bus, greeting isn't interacting with butter like a partner being pushed

Greeting/zefiend - feels very unlikely. again with cop dead bussing isn't impossible but the sides are too intense and greeting specifically taking a line of attack on zefiend not technically being a newbie would be absolutely insane to do to a mafia teammate.

Greeting/VOID - I somewhat doubt that Greeting actively calls out void for lurking in-thread if they're teammates ()

Void/butterchurn - This is maybe bold on my part, the early callout by butter on Void wouldn't be impossible as distancing, but void's response in doesn't look partnery in the way he tries to explain himself, it feels like there's a level of caution to his words there you don't see between scumbuddies faking interaction. the "at the risk of sounding parrot-y AGAIN of butterchurn" also doesn't feel like something someone typically says about their scumbuddy, don't think based on his confidence level that he simply agrees with things his teammate says.


zefiend/dunnstral - the strongest point against is dunn coming to zefiend's defense when I expressed some suspicion of him, by meta dunn is just less likely to openly defend a partner like that.

Cape90/Greeting - greeting's read on cape is undercooked but going for the partner defense early would be bold and not typical of most newbies, can't strongly rule it out though.


These are teams I can see as being decently possible:

Greeting/Dunnstral - not totally implausible, have pushed at each other a little bit but not so much that

Cape90/butterchurn - strikingly possible, but both would have to be playing frankly excellent games and deciding to back each other up from the start while also interacting frequently and naturally.

butterchurn/dunnstral - not entirely implausible.

Void/Dunnstral - no reason this couldn't be the team.

Void/zefiend - could easily, easily be a post made to a partner. I know people are too quick to theorize about "in-thread coaching", which rarely happens, but the post is critical of void but ultimately only pushes him to do/say more rather than saying he's scummy, and indeed there's never any followup on that and no further comments on void's alignment.


I'm not sure if this has been helpful, necessarily. I'm feeling like zefiend's interpretation of greeting's posts is very uncharitable but there is certainly an archetype of stubborn player who would get caught up in what he's doing. The interesting thing is that I feel like if he's scum, it's only with Void.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:30 pm

Post by catboi »

I guess I'll see down the line if this is even useful and whether I'm correct or not.


But for now, in this moment, the current votecount is unacceptable. We need to start forming an actual wagon. I'm willing to compromise and move my vote if no one else is.

butterchurn, you absolutely need to be making a vote at this point in time.
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:35 pm

Post by butterchurn »

Alright, if you say so. Void is my preference at the moment.

VOTE: VOID
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:39 pm

Post by butterchurn »

Dunn would probably be my second choice, FWIW. Have come around somewhat on both cape and Greeting, moreso on cape. Still planning to take a look at potential pairings as well tomorrow, although now some of it will be somewhat redundant.
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:59 pm

Post by ɀefiend »

In post 537, Greeting wrote:
In post 530, ɀefiend wrote:Greeting claims to be willing to vote out VOID today despite so heavily focusing on "one scum must be an SE"

Greeting lended support to catboi's effort on VOID out of nowhere. It is one of the things I called out in my wallpost.
Well, Mr. Logic - the fact that one has to be an SE does not imply that both have to be.
V0ID
is very clearly not an SE in my mind and therefore is outside the SE pool - I think they could be a partner who is being coached.
Is this post the first time you're elaborating on this? Genuinely curious.
In post 538, Greeting wrote: It's not an OMGUS,
butterchurn
has been pushing me way harder than you and yet I keep consistently townreading him. That's another lie from you, with you ignoring the main picture and only picking whatever suits your narrative.
butter is too tepid to push you (no offense butter.)

I'm pushing you because I know you're scum and if you continue dominating the conversation then town has no hope.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:00 pm

Post by ɀefiend »

I'll play along catboi, hold up.
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:40 pm

Post by ɀefiend »

In post 564, catboi wrote:Right, so...I don't typically do something like this, this is very much an experimental approach for me, but I thought I'd try something different based on the info we have to work with. With only 7 alive, that limits the number of potential scum team pairings considerably, and from my POV there are only 15 possible mafia teams. I want to see which teams I can rule out due to being unlikely.

In general I strongly believe that before players are flipped, you should focus on individual scumminess, as team hunting often leads people down incorrect paths (as it has for me on multiple occasions), but I do believe that being able to rule out potential teams and narrow down the possibilities for mafia is a useful tool for scumhunting. If a player has no potential partners in a game they're just town. If you restrict the teams down to a few people it gives you a better chance of hitting scum with your elimination.



Cape90/Dunnstral - don't see this ever being a thing. with the cop dead, bussing isn't a bad play but cape and dunn have been taking potshots at each other since day 1 and he vigor with which cape is going after dunnstral doesn't look like a bus.
I don't see this as a thing because I'm sure Greeting is scum but I want to point out that I feel both Cape and Dunn are good enough to bus.
Cape90/Void - I do not think this is likely to be a thing because of the way Void latched on to the early suspicion on cape in . Panic busses are a thing but this strikes me to be far more likely to be opportunism on void's part if he's scum. cape's own posts about void aren't as conclusive as he's very in between on them
This is one nightmare scenario that's crossed my path. Cape laughs at Greeting and I TvT while coaching Void. But I'm sticking to my guns right now.
Cape90/
Catboi
- doesn't feel like a bus and I don't think cape tries for that on day 1 in a 9p setup.
If this were the case, I think one or both of y'all would have backed the Greeting or zefiend side more strongly by now.
butterchurn/
Catboi
- I don't think this is the team because of zefiend taking a chunk of his wallpost specifically to call out to butterchurn and discuss a logical argument. It's too oddly specific an interaction to be distancing and I don't see him reaching out to a partner specifically.
Don't see any association here at all, really. Nothing to steer away from Greeting.
Greeting/butterchurn - was probably not a bus, greeting isn't interacting with butter like a partner being pushed
Here's one where I just straight up agree.
Greeting/
catboi
- feels very unlikely. again with cop dead bussing isn't impossible but the sides are too intense and greeting specifically taking a line of attack on zefiend not technically being a newbie would be absolutely insane to do to a mafia teammate.
I sorta suspected this for a little bit when you had "feelings" about me but I think you would have full-pressed with your partner by now in the situation we're in.
Greeting/VOID - I somewhat doubt that Greeting actively calls out void for lurking in-thread if they're teammates ()
I don't doubt this at all and feel like this could be natural scum chat in-game. This is actually one of my top team picks.
Void/butterchurn - This is maybe bold on my part, the early callout by butter on Void wouldn't be impossible as distancing, but void's response in doesn't look partnery in the way he tries to explain himself, it feels like there's a level of caution to his words there you don't see between scumbuddies faking interaction. the "at the risk of sounding parrot-y AGAIN of butterchurn" also doesn't feel like something someone typically says about their scumbuddy, don't think based on his confidence level that he simply agrees with things his teammate says.
I don't buy this team but I will disagree and say IF butterchurn were scum I believe he WOULD be capable of coaching. I don't see scum!butter though.

catboi
/dunnstral - the strongest point against is dunn coming to zefiend's defense when I expressed some suspicion of him, by meta dunn is just less likely to openly defend a partner like that.
Very little association and this pairing is not gonna pull me off Greeting.
Cape90/Greeting - greeting's read on cape is undercooked but going for the partner defense early would be bold and not typical of most newbies, can't strongly rule it out though.
Ah! The best for last. I actually am really scared this could be the scum team. Town would basically be fucked if the case. That's why I want to get Greeting today, so even if I die tonight scum can't continue dominating the narrative.

It's interesting you're giving Greeting the benefit of newbieness. Let's cut the semantics though, shall we? I'm in a Newbie game but I'm not a newb. Greeting's in a Newbie game and they may be relatively newer but I wouldn't call them a newb. If it wasn't revealed ahhlo or whoever is a troll I would have given them a newbie pass.

These are teams I can see as being decently possible:

Greeting/Dunnstral - not totally implausible, have pushed at each other a little bit but not so much that
Sure. I haven't given Dunn much thought since they don't say much. But nothing they've said has been scummy to me so I don't think so.
Cape90/butterchurn - strikingly possible, but both would have to be playing frankly excellent games and deciding to back each other up from the start while also interacting frequently and naturally.
This is an even worse nightmare scenario but I already talked about this earlier in the game; if I lose to scum!butter I won't even be mad. I'm just simply choosing to believe nobody could play a scum team that well.
butterchurn/dunnstral - not entirely implausible.
Nothing cementing them together. "Not entirely implausible" is nowhere near good enough to sway me.
Void/Dunnstral - no reason this couldn't be the team.
If this is the team, I'll apologize to Greeting after the game, but I really
really
don't think so. I don't tunnel unless I know I have something solid, and I really do this game.
Void/zefiend - could easily, easily be a post made to a partner. I know people are too quick to theorize about "in-thread coaching", which rarely happens, but the post is critical of void but ultimately only pushes him to do/say more rather than saying he's scummy, and indeed there's never any followup on that and no further comments on void's alignment.


I'm not sure if this has been helpful, necessarily. I'm feeling like zefiend's interpretation of greeting's posts is very uncharitable but there is certainly an archetype of stubborn player who would get caught up in what he's doing. The interesting thing is that I feel like if he's scum, it's only with Void.
First of all, on {VOID/catboi} - I don't think you (catboi) are brazen enough to essentially bus your partner as suspicious with literally everyone else in the game.

On VOID + me: I've had one other direct interaction with VOID and recently I commented on Greeting's behavior with respect to VOID. If the scum team is Greeting + Cape then VOID is a very, very, easy mislim for scum to push through right now. If the scumteam is Greeting + VOID then Greeting's (it's gotta be an SE guys!!!) makes more sense AND trying to pocket Cape makes more sense.

I am holding firm on Greeting.

I would only vote Cape if Greeting admitted they were wrong, showed me they're a townie, and pushed forward a case for a Cape+VOID team. So basically, not gonna happen.

I would only vote VOID or dunn to secure a lim today.
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:25 pm

Post by Greeting »

In post 568, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 537, Greeting wrote:
In post 530, ɀefiend wrote:Greeting claims to be willing to vote out VOID today despite so heavily focusing on "one scum must be an SE"

Greeting lended support to catboi's effort on VOID out of nowhere. It is one of the things I called out in my wallpost.
Well, Mr. Logic - the fact that one has to be an SE does not imply that both have to be.
V0ID
is very clearly not an SE in my mind and therefore is outside the SE pool - I think they could be a partner who is being coached.
Is this post the first time you're elaborating on this? Genuinely curious.
I believe I've already spoken of
V0ID
before that post.
In post 568, ɀefiend wrote:
In post 538, Greeting wrote: It's not an OMGUS,
butterchurn
has been pushing me way harder than you and yet I keep consistently townreading him. That's another lie from you, with you ignoring the main picture and only picking whatever suits your narrative.
butter is too tepid to push you (no offense butter.)

I'm pushing you because I know you're scum and if you continue dominating the conversation then town has no hope.
You
know
I'm scum? That's a lie. There is only one possibility in which this could be true and that would be if we were scum together. And we both know that we're not.
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:36 pm

Post by Greeting »

In post 554, butterchurn wrote:
In post 551, Greeting wrote:If I were scum in this situation, I'd definitely try to convince V0ID to finally settle on something and make a case on someone and try to make it as convincing as possible. I have a rather strong belief that unnecessary hesitation is a scum tell. V0ID is doing quite the opposite and his behavior is, admittedly, constant in that even though myself and notably also catboi have suspected him for it.
It does remind me a little of StrangeMatter in 2084, where reading along I read him pretty strongly as town by the end of the game because he was very hesitant and noncommittal even after being heavily called out for it, to the point where I thought there was no way scum would continue in that manner, and he must just be a struggling town. Then he ended up winning as mafia. So I've been fooled by that before.
When it comes to StrangeMatter, I've found them incredibly hard to read given their meta. I was very careful about them, because I scumread them for their play in Newbie 2082 and they turned out to be town. So yeah, that's someone who can easily imitate their indecisive and flaky playstyle as scum.
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:47 pm

Post by Greeting »

In post 564, catboi wrote: zefiend/dunnstral - the strongest point against is dunn coming to zefiend's defense when I expressed some suspicion of him, by meta dunn is just less likely to openly defend a partner like that.
I can see this being a possibility, but it's not more likely than
V0ID
in any configuration with either of these two.
In post 564, catboi wrote:Void/Dunnstral - no reason this couldn't be the team.
I quite agree.

Dunnstral
has been the least active of all and his posts give very little hint as to associations with any other player. Him pushing
Cape90
makes sense from a scum point of view, given the fact that there hasn't been much suspicion or push on
Cape90
from anyone really, at least in Day 2. I'd say it's a way of finding a safe spot to stay in while the rest of us discuss possibilities and argue with one another.
In post 564, catboi wrote:Void/zefiend - could easily, easily be a post made to a partner. I know people are too quick to theorize about "in-thread coaching", which rarely happens, but the post is critical of void but ultimately only pushes him to do/say more rather than saying he's scummy, and indeed there's never any followup on that and no further comments on void's alignment.
I think this configuration is also very likely.

Honestly, from my perspective, all three of these work together.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:56 pm

Post by Greeting »

In post 564, catboi wrote:Cape90/Greeting - greeting's read on cape is undercooked but going for the partner defense early would be bold and not typical of most newbies, can't strongly rule it out though.
ɀefiend wrote:
Cape90/Greeting - greeting's read on cape is undercooked but going for the partner defense early would be bold and not typical of most newbies, can't strongly rule it out though.
Ah! The best for last. I actually am really scared this could be the scum team. Town would basically be fucked if the case. That's why I want to get Greeting today, so even if I die tonight scum can't continue dominating the narrative.

It's interesting you're giving Greeting the benefit of newbieness. Let's cut the semantics though, shall we? I'm in a Newbie game but I'm not a newb. Greeting's in a Newbie game and they may be relatively newer but I wouldn't call them a newb. If it wasn't revealed ahhlo or whoever is a troll I would have given them a newbie pass.

On VOID + me: I've had one other direct interaction with VOID and recently I commented on Greeting's behavior with respect to VOID. If the scum team is Greeting + Cape then VOID is a very, very, easy mislim for scum to push through right now. If the scumteam is Greeting + VOID then Greeting's (it's gotta be an SE guys!!!) makes more sense AND trying to pocket Cape makes more sense.

I am holding firm on Greeting.

I would only vote Cape if Greeting admitted they were wrong, showed me they're a townie, and pushed forward a case for a Cape+VOID team. So basically, not gonna happen.
I quite agree with the fact that I left
Cape90
out of my suspcions early and I keep ignoring them, but their slot has given me nothing that would show that their willingness to solve the game isn't genuine. In Newbie 2082 past my death he went right
in
after scum MegAzumarill and it seems that he's taken preference to it now. I'm just... buying it. If he played and pocketed me so easily then I just deserve to lose this game.

If my whole reasoning is bullshit then a nightmare scenario for me would probably be
Cape90
/
catboi
. But somehow I highly doubt this is the case.

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