Newbie 2086 - Reaction GIFs | End!

[catboi]

I think it's fairly obvious you'd be more threatening to me than Greeting here. (I also don't feel like your stances were nearly that solid)

[Cape90]

like what, he's just not thinking critically at all?

welcome to my thoughts on Dunn's pushes yesterday, though his push on you is way more coherent then his pushes yesterday so LMAO dunno why you are just now harping on it.

[catboi]

I don't think his reasons are good at all although of course I'm biased

[Cape90]

I don' know if he's town but I have to critique his ideas as though he were.
.

Well right now I am trying to do this with Dunn RIGHT NOW.

With the amount of water you're carrying for Dunn you'd think his house was on fire

But it's obvious you are not

[catboi]

I don' know if he's town but I have to critique his ideas as though he were.
.

Well right now I am trying to do this with Dunn RIGHT NOW.

With the amount of water you're carrying for Dunn you'd think his house was on fire

But it's obvious you are not

That is fair, I suppose. I am mostly locked into the idea of him being scum because that was how I felt entering the day and his attack on me felt too unbelievable to come from town.

[Cape90]

you see, I was carrying water for Dunn because his push on you is easily the best push he has had this entire game that at least has a structure and a supportive backbone behind it. Dunn says I overreach with my pushing in 525, I wish I actually knew what they even meant here. Dunn also says they "don't see the conviction" from me in 473 which, no offence, had to be one of the most ironic pushes I had ever seen. And then there is stuff I already addressed like 222 which even if Dunn doesn't believe my explanation, I still find it a bit reachy, it jumps to conclusions. And then add the millions of times they call me out for comparing them to this hydra game where they posted less then their partner, which, fine, fair enough. And they say they thought I was scummy day 1.

[butterchurn]

I think it's fairly obvious you'd be more threatening to me than Greeting here. (I also don't feel like your stances were nearly that solid)

If you're mafia, you have a partner, so it's not all about you. And Greeting voted you at the start of Day 2. I thought that his main suspicions were Dunn/zefiend/you, although he did seem to be townreading you more by the end of day, but that seemed to be in conjunction with his turn onto void. Would not have been surprised for him to focus on you more after the void flip. Then again, maybe he just locks in his solve of dunn/zefiend, and that team thinks that's too much of a threat for him to stay alive.

[butterchurn]

The more I think about it, the more I think the scumteam has to include zefiend. I don't see Dunn and catboi together, and I lean away from cape/catboi and dunn/cape. The most likely two teams to me now are zefiend/catboi or zefiend/dunn. I'm still conflicted on dunn vs catboi. zefiend/cape is possible, I guess, but it seems less likely to me.

[ɀefiend]

Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.

1) Does it look like I'm bussing today? (hint: I can't)
2) Do you think scum!me spends an entire day pushing Greeting instead of lazy sheeping on VOID, only to lazy-kill Greeting the following night?

Please explain if your hypothesis changed or how that my progression makes sense FYPOV where I must be scum.

[butterchurn]

Earlier you said if I'm scum the Greeting kill doesn't make sense unless I was planning to bus.

I did not. I said that about Dunn. Very interesting that you mixed those up, though. Since before the kill even came in, I thought that only teams with you on them would kill Greeting. The change in opinion that I've had is that I see it could be possible for Dunn to be scum (specifically, with you), where previously I thought the kill only made sense if he were town.

2) Do you think scum!me spends an entire day pushing Greeting instead of lazy sheeping on VOID, only to lazy-kill Greeting the following night?

Yes, obviously I do. I think Greeting is a bit of a weird kill no matter who the scumteam is, but clearly

someone

thought it was the best choice, and I think any team without you on it would be much less likely to opt for that route.

[Dunnstral]

I've played enough wuith dunn to know the arguments he's pushing are crap.

I believe that this stance is made-up and cannot be supported.

If I had felt him unelimable, why wouldn't I nightkill him? The thought is absurd.

You only need to eliminate 1 townie to win.

With the amount of water you're carrying for Dunn you'd think his house was on fire. I don't particularly think it makes you scum here, it's just incredibly annoying.

So who does that make scum? Because you are acting like there is only 1 mafia

[Dunnstral]

you see, I was carrying water for Dunn because his push on you is easily the best push he has had this entire game that at least has a structure and a supportive backbone behind it. Dunn says I overreach with my pushing in 525, I wish I actually knew what they even meant here. Dunn also says they "don't see the conviction" from me in 473 which, no offence, had to be one of the most ironic pushes I had ever seen. And then there is stuff I already addressed like 222 which even if Dunn doesn't believe my explanation, I still find it a bit reachy, it jumps to conclusions. And then add the millions of times they call me out for comparing them to this hydra game where they posted less then their partner, which, fine, fair enough. And they say they thought I was scummy day 1.

473: When I'm talking about conviction it in response to greeting saying you are town because you have conviction behind your pushes. I didn't and don't see that in your day 2, especially early when they said it. To be clear, I'm not pushing you for a lack on conviction, I'm saying I don't see that reason to townread you. It's not ironic.
525: I say that you are overreaching because it feels like you have decided to tunnel on me with flimsy reasoning that doesn't hold up when discussed

I don't understand why you keep bringing up the hydra game and comparing it to this game, when your conclusion was that even though I was playing differently, I was the same alignment. Why bring up that game at all? You are comparing to a game where I was mafia and played different

[Dunnstral]

222 is interesting because catboi scum changes that interaction

[catboi]

I don't care about solving for the exact team, Dunn. I never see it lead to good results and it never works for me, so I'm not going to bother with it.

[Dunnstral]

You seemed interested yesterday

[catboi]

Right, so...I don't typically do something like this,

this is very much an experimental approach for me

, but I thought I'd try something different based on the info we have to work with. With only 7 alive, that limits the number of potential scum team pairings considerably, and from my POV there are only 15 possible mafia teams. I want to see which teams I can rule out due to being unlikely.

In general I strongly believe that before players are flipped, you should focus on individual scumminess, as team hunting often leads people down incorrect paths (as it has for me on multiple occasions)

, but I do believe that being able to rule out potential teams and narrow down the possibilities for mafia is a useful tool for scumhunting.

I laid it out pretty plainly that I wasn't betting the game on that analysis. It was just something I wanted to try within the confines of a newbie game.

Anyway, inevitably when trying to find an exact team on ELO, the odds are worse, and if you get it wrong, townies tend to OMGUS and make the game unwinnable. I'm not doing that. I have one vote, I want to try to place it in the right place today. Nothing else matters.

[catboi]

VOTE: Dunnstral

Might as well make it official. Was unlikely I'd make any other move today, if I'm wrong I might as well find out now.

[butterchurn]

Rereading the whole thread with the two pairings I'm currently considering in mind, and here are my thoughts (warning -- most of this is just summarizing what happened, which I found helpful to write out, but might not be terribly helpful to read. I have a few thoughts on it, though):
- Based just on Day 1 behavior, GB (dunn) and zefiend feel slightly more like classic scum partner interactions, acknowledging existence but not really engaging heavily. GB didn't really engage with anyone, though, so it's hard to say. zefiend calling out catboi to specifically ask how he feels about the game state is weird, but feels too obvious to me (then again, if zefiend is scum, I think he's done several obviously strange things, so maybe he wouldn't see an issue with it, although I imagine catboi would not be very appreciative of it if they were indeed partners), and his interactions with catboi early don't feel that scum-partner-y to me.

- Day 2 though... besides the push on Greeting which never really made much impact besides from me and zefiend, earlier in the day it really looks to me like the town is going to head in the direction of either zefiend or dunn. It's interesting looking at how things switched over to void. Timeline is as follows. Near the end of Day 1, catboi has zefiend as his ONLY strong opionion in the scum direction in 292, then he votes him shortly after. He then adds some more suspicion on void in 319. At the start of Day 2, Greeting votes catboi. In 374, catboi says one of void/zefiend/dunn, and says that he still finds void's Day 1 scummy (I actually can't find where his suspicion of dunn begins, looks like just POE since he has townleans on me/greeting/cape?). Soon after, he mentions how he finds zefiend's mason denial to be suspicious. zefiend continues to be noncommital with Dunn. Greeting says there is scum in catboi/zefiend/dunn. I express weak reads on all three of those. Cape shows up and votes dunn, and seems to say zefiend would be his second choice in 403. Greeting then does his associations post and votes Dunn. I get in a debate with Greeting, and vote him. Dunn says he disagrees with catboi's reads, finding Greeting/Cape suspicious and not finding zefiend scum.
------ At this point, there are 2 votes on Dunn (with one more suspicion, from catboi), and 1 on Greeting. There's also three people expressing suspicion of zefiend, but not voting there (cape, Greeting, catboi). catboi has suspicion on void, dunn and greeting have mentioned it as well to some extent, but not particularly recently, except for when Greeting says he could see a scumteam of dunn and void.
- catboi then townreads Greeting, and votes void, in 426. Greeting agrees, and catboi continues the push. zefiend shows up and makes a lot of posts on Greeting, and votes him. In 447, catboi has thoughts, but wants to wait for the response. Greeting then gets in the newbie/SE debate with zefiend, and ends up voting him. I continue pushing on Greeting. catboi posts 472, where he doesn't want to engage with zefiend but thinks his posting on Greeting makes him feel more town. Dunn votes cape in 473. cape flips opinion on zefiend and says he looks much more town today.
------ At this point, there are 2 votes on Greeting (me and zefiend), and 1 each on zefiend, dunn, cape, and void.
- Greeting townreads catboi for not jumping on his wagon, but finds it interesting (presumably suspicious) in 518 that dunn and void aren't willing to jump on it. I wonder what his opinion on this would be now. I express suspicion on void in 510. I unvote greeting, as my suspicion on him has started to fall off. cape appears again, with even more suspicion on Dunn in 533, and then more townread on zefiend. catboi and I both townread cape for it. I talk about some more stuff from void that I find suspicious in 545.
------ At this point, there is 1 vote each on Greeting, zefiend, dunn, cape, and void. Multiple people have now expressed willingness to vote void and dunn, but Greeting seems to be the only one left on zefiend.
- catboi expresses that the votecount is a mess. He then makes his scumteam post in 564. As dunn discussed, 3/5 of his top team picks have dunn in them. Only one has void but not dunn. He then specifically talks about zefiend at the end of the post, to say something noncommital and then that he only sees him as scum with void. This I find interesting, especially that he chose to further discuss zefiend and not dunn. He then says the votecount is unacceptable and that I have to be voting. I get convinced by this, and vote void (a big mistake, even with my suspicion of void. If town loses I feel like a lot of it comes down to this -- my bad). I then say dunn would be my second choice. zefiend stays locked on Greeting, and then goes line by line through catboi's scumteam post, which reads like a lot of content and engagement but doesn't say that much. Greeting then puts the third vote onto void, and dunn has the weird role-discussion-then-oh-nevermind-let's-hammer thing, and day over.

Some notes on this:
- zefiend jumping on the Greeting case when there are two votes on Dunn looks pretty bad for the potential Dunn/zefiend pairing. Dunn's vote on cape feels kinda random, as he has previously expressed suspicions of void and Greeting, both of whom have votes already. There's also a decent amount of suspicion on zefiend still, since this is before cape switched. Could be scum him wanting to avoid being a late addition to multiple wagons in a row, but I don't think that really fits with him then hammering void in a very strange manner. If he's worried about him or his partner being limmed, why not just vote void earlier instead of voting cape? If he's worried about drawing attention, why wait and just hammer anyway, drawing way more attention? In between his cape vote and his void vote, suspicion on zefiend dropped off significantly (from cape, mostly), so if they're partners, there's no reason he would be any

more

worried about them dying by then. Not sure. From zefiend's side, the interactions look fairly scum-partner-y, but from Dunn's side, they don't really seem to fit.
- The timing and the way in which catboi's zefiend suspicion slips in and out feels very weird to me. He never really pressures him in the way he does his other suspicions (208 followed by 211 is weird, although he did end up expanding later). When there's 2 votes on Dunn and a decent amount of suspicion on zefiend, he opts for ignoring both (despite having suspicions on both) and pushing on void instead (who admittedly looked suspicious, but would be an extremely easy target for him to push as scum), and then later complaining about there being a split vote and that we needed to set up a wagon, when he was the one who split things up further. Finding at least some suspicion in zefiend while at the same time thinking his only viable partner is void is also pretty convenient. For catboi/zefiend, it's kind of the opposite as dunn/zefiend, where I feel like the catboi side looks a lot more partner-y, and the zefiend side looks less so.

So, conclusion is... inconclusive. Both pairings still feel viable to me, and there's some odd behavior in both directions. I come away from this a little more suspicious of catboi, I think, because I find his behavior slightly harder to rationalize as town, and closer to a pattern of scumplay that I would expect. It also looks like he ended up with dunn as a suspicion mostly by POE, which feels somewhat at odds with his emotion-tinged interactions with him toDay where he seems to be treating him like he sees him as obvscum. I know he finds the hammer suspicious, but besides that his reasoning seemed to be "he hasn't done anything towny" until dunn made a case on him. Meanwhile, nothing about rereading zefiend made me think he was more town, so I would still prefer to vote there.

[butterchurn]

Ah, well then. I was thinking there was still more to talk about. Guess we'll see what happens next.

[catboi]

The amount of people coming to his defense actually makes me uneasy simply because I'd expect that to be the approach scum takes if I have the wrong idea. But I'm not in the mood for second guessing.

[catboi]

I come away from this a little more suspicious of catboi, I think, because I find his behavior slightly harder to rationalize as town, and closer to a pattern of scumplay that I would expect. It also looks like he ended up with dunn as a suspicion mostly by POE, which feels somewhat at odds with his emotion-tinged interactions with him toDay where he seems to be treating him like he sees him as obvscum. I know he finds the hammer suspicious, but besides that his reasoning seemed to be "he hasn't done anything towny" until dunn made a case on him.

This is gibberish, btw

[Dunnstral]

I've played enough wuith dunn to know the arguments he's pushing are crap.

I believe that this stance is made-up and cannot be supported.

[butterchurn]

This is gibberish, btw

As in, it doesn't make sense? I can try to clarify what I mean if you like.

[catboi]

This is gibberish, btw

As in, it doesn't make sense? I can try to clarify what I mean if you like.

No, I don't need clarification. I just find the reasoning outrageous.

[catboi]

I find these situations irritating as town and I have an inherent bias against people who write a lot of words because I always feel like it's done for the purpose of being showy, regarrdless of whether not it actually ends up being the case. Don't take it personally.
I feel like you're either minimizing or not really making steps to understand my reasoning for seeing Dunn as scum.