Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

Hm

I kinda don't feel like playing the game now even if those are the course of events that I wanted to happen

huh

[catboi]

Vote Count 1.07

imaginality (5):

fua, Cephrir, Ydrasse, implosion, Shirou

implosion (2):

Amazonian Legends, imaginality

Tejate Raichu (1):

northsidegal

Cephrir (1):

numberQ

redtea (1):

GuiltyLion

numberQ (1):

Tejate Raichu

Not Voting (2):

morph the cat, redtea

With 13 alive, it's 7 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 1 is January 22 at 2:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-01-22 15:00:00)

Notes:

numberQ is V/LA until January 14

[Shirou]

It was my pet wagon...

mine...

[imaginality]

Your idea of "I recognize suspicious on my slot is reasonable" is...very reasonable indeed. However, the issue is that very rarely townies are reasonable. Even if they deserve the pressure and votes, more often than not they get frustrated by it. If you were town here and truly thought this way, you would be kinda the exception rather than the rule of how most people react.

I am a lot calmer than most players on here going by other games I've been in lately.

[fua]

It was my pet wagon...

mine...

[imaginality]

So...how come when all your top suspects begin piling up on you, your reaction is to just imply "I'm kinda fine with my elimination as long as we get the most information out of it possible" rather than engage me (one of your top town reads) on why I shouldn't vote with them or something...?

Like, even from a non-meta perspective it feels more like a overwhelmed scum reaction rather than a townie that should be very frustrated and very suspicious of this sudden switch/pile-up on you?

I did say at least two of them are scum. But as I mentioned I'm probably the easiest wagon right now so it's not like it gives me much space to convince others they're scum from the fact of them wagonning me.

The exception is that implosion and Cephrir jumped on both wagons now, which I pointed out.

I also pointed out where implosion misrepped me.

I might have more to say later but this was my work lunch break so I mainly wanted to get my claim out since it's relevant information I think.

[Tejate Raichu]

Two things: first, I'd like to do this exercise once again since it seems like imaginality is going to be a very popular wagon. Let's make the assumption that right now, 2 non-voters vote for imaginality right now (which would be hammer) and he flips Doctor. Do you glean anything from this information? And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

Also, is it necessary to really claim your night in this setup? I don't feel like it helps us very much at all.

[Shirou]

Do you glean anything from this information?

yes, whether he's scum or not when he's my top suspect atm

And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

that I probably already have one of his buddies.

[Shirou]

I don't know what you want me to say Tejate...I've spent a lot of time trying to sort slots here and in the background and from that I got that Imaginality is probably scum and partners with a certain other slot I'll comment on soon

like, if he flips town that means I was wrong and need to reconsider stuff, but why would I begin reconsidering stuff before I'm proven wrong? feels like a potential waste of time. If you want me to say who would be other slots I may look into closer if Imaginality flipped town, perhaps [you/NQ/GL], but I'm not 100% sure on that.

[redtea]

Alright whatever I didn't read everything but idt it matters. If it's relevant I'll read it in iso later.
Sorry to interrupt whatever convo seems to be happening. I decided to post this before reading updates.

I'm not going to case each read of mine, which I know isn't really fair since I haven't been around much to do so in real time, but TOO BAD. You can ask specific questions if you want. I have a few thoughts that are getting in the way of my sorting people. It's almost all in response to numberQ but tbh they're mostly open-ended responses, which works great considering the v/la

Here:

Spoiler:

numberQ #270
#178 +town and #166 -town?
I get it, but to me this looks like town checking if Amazonian is treading water or if there's an actual thought process behind the og question, without thinking through how Amazonian giving away her intentions (if any) ruins the point.
(I'd know because I've been there)

numberQ #273
does Cephrir tend to be reactionary? The smarter play here imo would've been to see if Tejate, down the line, actually does anything irt such little remarks or if they only ever seem to contribute to a smokescreen.
On the one hand, I'm only beginning to get the hang of this "be a little generous and make room for players' natural personality" thing myself, on the other, my join date isn't in the oughts.

numberQ #492
I don't see what ISN'T potentially scummy about making ridiculous accusations and then saying they're not actually that serious later on, which iirc is what happened.

implosion #298
this post expects fua to be a different (or maybe more advanced?) player than they are. What you hoped to get out of poking at this is the actual question

also love how page 18 can be summed up as "guilty lion forgets that Mafia is almost entirely a game of hypotheticals where you convince others to believe in yours" I can't help bringing that up


And here's where i'm at right now.

[lock-town]
fua, obviously.

[can stay]
-

[can maybe/probably stay]

nsg

,

ydrasse

,

shirou

[the flip would help]
Cephrir, Tejate

[can go]
GuiltyLion, imaginality, implosion

[??????]
numberQ, Amazonian,

morph

Those in blue/bold are those I expect might change after reading the updates

also I thought Shirou was also gonna be lock-town for me when reading much of the beginning of the game but I'm actually surprised I don't feel comfortable doing that anymore.

[redtea]

do scum still jump in for their mates these days tho?

There's many schools of thought for how to play scum. I don't think there's necessarily one catch all strategy that works every time. If it prevents town from solving, then the play did its job, you know?

That said I probably wouldn't on day 1.

meant to follow up and say you're right, it's on day 1 specifically that it don't seem likely.

[imaginality]

Two things: first, I'd like to do this exercise once again since it seems like imaginality is going to be a very popular wagon. Let's make the assumption that right now, 2 non-voters vote for imaginality right now (which would be hammer) and he flips Doctor. Do you glean anything from this information? And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

Also, is it necessary to really claim your night in this setup? I don't feel like it helps us very much at all.

Explains my early suspicion of Ydrasse and my interest in figuring out the odds.

Also if I'm scum would I be likely to deliberately pick the same night vs a different one? Up to you, I can see it both ways and it would be wifom if I give my view but IF people think it's less likely I'd pick same night as scum rather than pick a different night or claim cop, then that might make them question their vote on me.

[Shirou]

and yeah tejate, contrary to popular opinion I think you're more likely scum than town in a vacuum (now I'm done reconsidering your slot), but...I don't feel a lot of association between you/imag so I think I can perhaps just be misreading you at the moment since my most confident scum read is Imaginality.

If you want the reasons why I think that...well, it's stuff exactly like your last post. It feels like you're actually contributing in something but I don't feel you actually are. It feels like fluff dressed up as content and genuine eagerness to solve the game.

How many times have you said "now I need to think about my read on hydra/NSG" in your ISO as well? I'm plenty sure it's

multiple

times. I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to a dozen times by now, but you didn't really seem to follow up much on that at all. Almost as if your intention on saying it, and posting stuff like your last post as well, is to tell us "look I'm solving" more than...actually solve the game?

I think town!you would be eager to get down into engaging your suspects/pushing them/trying to actively convince people of your cases, but here you seem more like a spectator that wants to blend-in amidst the crowd.

It feels like you're playing a supporting character role when I do think you would have what it takes to be in the main cast, I guess.

[Shirou]

okie now that feels like a weird post from redtea

from one/two liners to wallposting redtea?

what happened there? why did you feel like doing a huge post rather than going through the emotions which I feel is your usual modus operandi?

[Shirou]

I think in fact if Imaginality was to flip town I would be pretty interested in a Tejate flip



maybe it would be my top choice but I don't know, talking too much about a hypothetical where your main suspect flips town is never a good thing to do.

I feel good about my actual vote and I think there's a bigger chance of me misreading Tejate than me misreading Imaginality right now.

[redtea]

Forgot that I was gonna link the game I played with fua
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=87769
and after reading their scum game linked earlier
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=88352
i'm doubly sure on them.

okie now that feels like a weird post from redtea

from one/two liners to wallposting redtea?

what happened there? why did you feel like doing a huge post rather than going through the emotions which I feel is your usual modus operandi?

it is (recently anyway) but i was behind since the beginning and finally got caught up as much as i could make myself. The pathetic excuse for a "wall" is me putting out there both the concrete and vague results of that. We'll see where it goes from here.

[Tejate Raichu]

and yeah tejate, contrary to popular opinion I think you're more likely scum than town in a vacuum (now I'm done reconsidering your slot), but...I don't feel a lot of association between you/imag so I think I can perhaps just be misreading you at the moment since my most confident scum read is Imaginality.

If you want the reasons why I think that...well, it's stuff exactly like your last post. It feels like you're actually contributing in something but I don't feel you actually are. It feels like fluff dressed up as content and genuine eagerness to solve the game.

How many times have you said "now I need to think about my read on hydra/NSG" in your ISO as well? I'm plenty sure it's

multiple

times. I wouldn't be surprised if it was close to a dozen times by now, but you didn't really seem to follow up much on that at all. Almost as if your intention on saying it, and posting stuff like your last post as well, is to tell us "look I'm solving" more than...actually solve the game?

I think town!you would be eager to get down into engaging your suspects/pushing them/trying to actively convince people of your cases, but here you seem more like a spectator that wants to blend-in amidst the crowd.

It feels like you're playing a supporting character role when I do think you would have what it takes to be in the main cast, I guess.

In no particular order: I don't necessarily think that is a waste of a question to ask. Granted, we have at least 4 one shot cops this game, but flips are still our biggest source of real solid information. I'm not opposed to an imaginality wagon, but I don't think it's necessarily too early to start thinking about what the flip would mean there if we're already considering it.

I will say that I'm liking NSG's recent posts more than their entry. While I obviously question their numberQ read (I don't think NSG has responded to this questioning yet) I overall like their thoughts. My top suspect (nQ) hasn't been engaging too much with the conversation as of currently, and as such it makes it difficult to say anything more than what I have already said and argued for. Not to mention that my vote against them seemed to inspire a whole lot of nothing for everyone, which granted I expected but I don't think that wagon has its wheels. Several people have nQ in their townbin, and I don't think anyone else suspects him quite enough for a wagon to actually have wheels.

And I do genuinely still need to organize my thoughts on morph and AL, as I am unfamiliar with the concept of hydrae and am trying to figure out how to read them as I go. This doesn't mean I haven't started thinking it over, quite the contrary actually. I will say so far that I lean very

slightly

town on AL and more towards null on morph. I don't want to post my thoughts yet until I can get everything in one go.

I don't think this stuff is necessarily unreasonable, but if you have an issue with it, then go ahead and scumbin me. I don't necessarily mind being a contentious slot if only for the discussion it generates around me.

[Tejate Raichu]

I would also like to clarify something of my playstyle for you, something that I really have no reason to lie about here. I am of the opinion that survival as scum is a bit overrated. Don't get me wrong, on average it massively increases your chances of winning, but it's also not necessary. Town's goal isn't just "kill all scum" and mafia's goal isn't just "achieve parity". Town's goal is to solve who scum is, mafia's is to prevent town from solving until it's already too late.

While yes, I would certainly be excited about flipping a scum today, I would also like the potential information that comes with such a flip. Again, I am not opposed to joining the imaginality wagon since my current one is dead in the water.

[Shirou]

My top suspect (nQ) hasn't been engaging too much with the conversation as of currently, and as such it makes it difficult to say anything more than what I have already said and argued for

your top suspect may be NQ but there's other slots you've doubts towards no?

If your NQ push wasn't giving you results, I think you would still try to poke other people. You're unfamiliar with the concept of hydras, but unfamiliar...how? You never played with them but what is the difficulty on getting started on them? If you've any issues, you could have talked about it especially since you seem to want to be so transparent, you could have questioned the hydras about your doubts in how in synch their reads were, etc.

It's not that the stuff you're saying is unreasonable, it's just that they gradually feel like some sort of...I don't know, excuses?

- "Hey Tejate, who are you gunning for?"

- "Oh it's NQ, but no one seems very interested and he's away so...I'm just here talking to people as if I was some kind of mediator/support rather than a player".

- "Hey Tejate, how are your hydra reads?"

- "I'm unfamiliar with them...but I'm not engaging them a lot to clear my doubts neither asking for advice in how to approach it from other players...I'll get to it at some point"

I don't feel like you're very

eager

to find scum Tejate. It essentially boils down to that I guess, I would think you would be more proactive in all of the stated points but perhaps I can be misjudging your profile as a player so yeah. It's one of the reason I'm not pursuing you right now. I feel the potential to be wrong on this read is waving to me, and some of your carefree posts like "if shirou is scum they are doing a great job at it" do tonally ping me as town.

p-edit: will get to that

[Shirou]

I would also like to clarify something of my playstyle for you, something that I really have no reason to lie about here. I am of the opinion that survival as scum is a bit overrated. Don't get me wrong, on average it massively increases your chances of winning, but it's also not necessary. Town's goal isn't just "kill all scum" and mafia's goal isn't just "achieve parity". Town's goal is to solve who scum is, mafia's is to prevent town from solving until it's already too late.

While yes, I would certainly be excited about flipping a scum today, I would also like the potential information that comes with such a flip. Again, I am not opposed to joining the imaginality wagon since my current one is dead in the water.

survival as scum overrated...?

isn't scum objective in fact just survive? They don't need to necessarily deceive town at all or prevent them from solving. There's dozens and dozens of games being won every year by town eating each other. Scum objective is primarily to survive so that they can reach majority as fast as possible. Town goal is to kill scum period, "solving" scum is just one the processes of which we get to kill, but we also often get one free scum kill from mech stuff like cops and etc? That has nothing to do with "solving"?

I don't get that perspective at all Tejate, it feels hard to believe you genuinely think that even if you say you've no reason to lie about it.

I don't think you're completely lying but if you're scum I think you're telling a half-truth. The best kind of lie is when you mix some lies with some partial truth. I think you do genuinely believe in "what information do we gain from X's flip?", but I don't think when you would get to playing as town, finding scum would feel like as much of a secondary objective to you over "gaining information", "studying wagons options" and etc like in this game. It feels overdone to me in your posts here.

I think that was all I could hope to say about my read in you since both you and some other people had interest on it. That's my conclusion from those 5 days or observing you or so.

[Shirou]

bah

it's childish but I can't help but feel a bit bummed out that the imaginality wagon happened before I could be the first one on it

so nvm I'm just gonna out it because I'm not sure I'll be around tomorrow or so. My other scum read for today is Morph and I'm interested in what their reactions to all that happened since their last post will be. It was getting kinda obvious as well since I had almost everyone else sorted out. I think it's Imaginality/Morph as a team (dunno the third), but it's not just an associative read, I simply do individually find them both suspicious and it also makes sense when I do look at them together.



I wouldn't be against ending the day in a few days, I think around 50 pages is decent for a 13p D1.

In fact I'm in

favor

of not spending all the deadline time because that just gives more possibility of the imaginality's wagon being defused.

[implosion]

Tejate, there's an anecdote from one of the first newbie games I played on this site about 10 years ago that I like to bring up when people talk (imo) overly much about limming for information. In that game, someone sorted the player list by the amount of info we'd get from their flip in an effort to get the most info-wise out of the d1 lim. It was, imo, not a coincidence that the two bottom players on that list were the scumteam. Scum are in many ways incentivized to play in such a way that their eliminations give little information. It's fine to think about what info you'll get out of a lim but it should not IMO be a chief factor in who you pick. Because, ultimately, town's goal

is

just "kill all scum".

[Tejate Raichu]

isn't scum objective in fact just survive? They don't need to necessarily deceive town at all or prevent them from solving. There's dozens and dozens of games being won every year by town eating each other. Scum objective is primarily to survive so that they can reach majority as fast as possible. Town goal is to kill scum period, "solving" scum is just one the processes of which we get to kill, but we also often get one free scum kill from mech stuff like cops and etc? That has nothing to do with "solving"?

This is true as well. Sometimes, town's nature is simply to self-destruct, in which case scum doesn't actually need to do anything. But with a stronger town, that self-destruction usually needs to be instigated, to a degree. My point was that survival is not the only tool that can instigate a town down that path, and games can still be won with early scum deaths.

I don't think you're completely lying but if you're scum I think you're telling a half-truth. The best kind of lie is when you mix some lies with some partial truth. I think you do genuinely believe in "what information do we gain from X's flip?", but I don't think when you would get to playing as town, finding scum would feel like as much of a secondary objective to you over "gaining information", "studying wagons options" and etc like in this game. It feels overdone to me in your posts here.

First of all, yes half-truths are a good way to lie. But think about it, making a declaration of my playstyle that later turns out to be a lie or a half truth only hurts me in the long run. Also, my intent wasn't to say that scum-flip is secondary, obviously that's helpful. It gives us time. But I think it's worth considering what those flips actually tell us about the game as a whole, or at the very least, what people think they will tell us.

I will be preparing my thoughts on NSG, redtea, AL, and morph. Ideally I will get them out later tonight if we don't hammer, after I'm done chillin' with buddies.

... I think it's Imaginality/Morph as a team (dunno the third), but it's not just an associative read, I simply do individually find them both suspicious and it also makes sense when I do look at them together.
...

You scumread me individually, but you're not listing me as the possible third scum?

[Tejate Raichu]

Anyways, if there's one thing we can at the very least agree on it's that I don't necessarily have an issue with ending the day. We have a lot of content, after all.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: imaginality

[morph the cat]

Hey slow down. We've got a lot of catchup to do tonight.