Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Amazonian Legends]

I think if anything

fua

's claim today is slightly +scum rather than +town as fua hinted it's a late-day action so it seems like it could be designed to encourage us to keep fua around, while also making docs likely to target fua which is fua is scum gives scum freer rein to kill whoever they like. Definitely feeling a bit wary about that.

How likely do you think this kind of play actually is?

The cop claim didn’t surprise me actually, they made a post some time back that I read as a probable cop tell.

I can see a single scum player in a team of three making that play. Like as a preplanned tactic. Fake a coptell, claim cop, it would be bad if it's a regular cop but one-shot it seems pretty doable.

It's not enough in and of itself to paint fua as scum, but I definitely don't think it should be getting read as a townpoint.
I do admit that fua's other posting hasn't worried so much.

So the possible cop tell I noted is nowhere a definite tell and one that came from a tenor of a post that I thought sounded like it possibly came from a cop. Even if fua is gambiting as town or scum, I don't think the post I thought it came from was a planned fake cop tell. I think it would be odd for scum at that point to claim for the reason you're suggesting; I was starting to townread fua before that point, and the cop claim just made sense with what I thought of one of their posts.

I don't know if that makes sense. I did not eat edibles but it's past my bedtime and my brain is starting to go gooey.

[Amazonian Legends]

The focus on reacting to single players or statements at any given time does give me a bit of pause

Not sure what this means?

[Tejate Raichu]

The focus on reacting to single players or statements at any given time does give me a bit of pause

Not sure what this means?

I meant that a lot of your posts seem to be reactive to specific other players, with much fewer on the state of the game as a whole. That might be more of a playstyle thing than an AI thing, I'm not too sure.

Also don't ruin your sleep schedule, I'll be around tomorrow.

[Amazonian Legends]

Whoever corrected me on the maths, I think this is a simpler way of figuring it that avoids the Bayesian logic:

There are 3 to 5 other townies who could be the same night and same role as me. Average 4.

There are 3 scum who could claim to be same role and night as me. Average 1.5 since they might instead claim different role to me.

Assuming scum claim their night at random then it's 1.5/(1.5+4.5) = 27.3% chance it's scum claiming it. So it is more likely than the 25% baseline chance, but only slightly, not significantly like I first thought.

The assumption that scum will claim their night at random (rather than e.g. being biased towards claiming later nights) is possibly questionable but that gets wifomy.

Are you ScrewTheTells by any chance?

[Amazonian Legends]

The focus on reacting to single players or statements at any given time does give me a bit of pause

Not sure what this means?

I meant that a lot of your posts seem to be reactive to specific other players, with much fewer on the state of the game as a whole. That might be more of a playstyle thing than an AI thing, I'm not too sure.

Also don't ruin your sleep schedule, I'll be around tomorrow.

It's just me. I imagine once I catch up, I'll give more thoughts.

[imaginality]

Whoever corrected me on the maths, I think this is a simpler way of figuring it that avoids the Bayesian logic:

There are 3 to 5 other townies who could be the same night and same role as me. Average 4.

There are 3 scum who could claim to be same role and night as me. Average 1.5 since they might instead claim different role to me.

Assuming scum claim their night at random then it's 1.5/(1.5+4.5) = 27.3% chance it's scum claiming it. So it is more likely than the 25% baseline chance, but only slightly, not significantly like I first thought.

The assumption that scum will claim their night at random (rather than e.g. being biased towards claiming later nights) is possibly questionable but that gets wifomy.

Are you ScrewTheTells by any chance?

Nope. No alts, I haven't even changed my profile pic since I joined.

[imaginality]

Well, not necessarily I guess, asynchronous dialogue is possible but I get more from back and forth when I'm online at the same time as the other player(s), especially in fastpaced games.

We were online at the same time a little bit ago, and you're unsure of us, why no back and forth?

Went pretty quickly back into work meetings alas.

[imaginality]

I think if anything

fua

's claim today is slightly +scum rather than +town as fua hinted it's a late-day action so it seems like it could be designed to encourage us to keep fua around, while also making docs likely to target fua which is fua is scum gives scum freer rein to kill whoever they like. Definitely feeling a bit wary about that.

How likely do you think this kind of play actually is?

The cop claim didn’t surprise me actually, they made a post some time back that I read as a probable cop tell.

I can see a single scum player in a team of three making that play. Like as a preplanned tactic. Fake a coptell, claim cop, it would be bad if it's a regular cop but one-shot it seems pretty doable.

It's not enough in and of itself to paint fua as scum, but I definitely don't think it should be getting read as a townpoint.
I do admit that fua's other posting hasn't worried so much.

So the possible cop tell I noted is nowhere a definite tell and one that came from a tenor of a post that I thought sounded like it possibly came from a cop. Even if fua is gambiting as town or scum, I don't think the post I thought it came from was a planned fake cop tell. I think it would be odd for scum at that point to claim for the reason you're suggesting; I was starting to townread fua before that point, and the cop claim just made sense with what I thought of one of their posts.

I don't know if that makes sense. I did not eat edibles but it's past my bedtime and my brain is starting to go gooey.

I think I get what you're saying. Essentially their play felt like a cop would play. Which post was this based on?

[imaginality]

As in which post of fua's gave you the cop vibe?

[Amazonian Legends]

Instead of asking why he just says ‘I feel the same way’ which is just weird and an attempt to brush off suspicion through OMGUS and undermining Morph’s own statement, which I think is scummy.

Hero solve is Ceph/Implosion/Tejate. Clearly this is correct.

I think I'd see where you're coming from if this was the beginning of their suspicion, but Implosion and Morph have been suspecting each other for pages before this.

[Cephrir]

Two things: first, I'd like to do this exercise once again since it seems like imaginality is going to be a very popular wagon. Let's make the assumption that right now, 2 non-voters vote for imaginality right now (which would be hammer) and he flips Doctor. Do you glean anything from this information? And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

Also, is it necessary to really claim your night in this setup? I don't feel like it helps us very much at all.

idk

i didnt expect this wagon to start looking like it could go to elim, but i have no issue if it does

i'll analyze the flip after i get it. i don't like to waste my time doing so beforehand

[morph the cat]

Tammy when y'all gonna get around to finalizing a read on us? Kthnx

[Amazonian Legends]

As in which post of fua's gave you the cop vibe?

Wanna know the best part of locktowning Tammyguin, Ceph?

My you-read is outsourced to somebody better at it!

Just so you know I had major wiggins when I saw this post whenever I skimmed. Until I talked to penguin and she said she had him pegged in bloodstained, and that made sense.

[Tejate Raichu]

Two things: first, I'd like to do this exercise once again since it seems like imaginality is going to be a very popular wagon. Let's make the assumption that right now, 2 non-voters vote for imaginality right now (which would be hammer) and he flips Doctor. Do you glean anything from this information? And what do you gain information wise if he flips mafia?

Also, is it necessary to really claim your night in this setup? I don't feel like it helps us very much at all.

idk

i didnt expect this wagon to start looking like it could go to elim, but i have no issue if it does

i'll analyze the flip after i get it. i don't like to waste my time doing so beforehand

Weren't you one the people in the four vote chain? What gave you the impression that it couldn't go that far?

[morph the cat]

As in which post of fua's gave you the cop vibe?

Wanna know the best part of locktowning Tammyguin, Ceph?

My you-read is outsourced to somebody better at it!

Just so you know I had major wiggins when I saw this post whenever I skimmed. Until I talked to penguin and she said she had him pegged in bloodstained, and that made sense.

Swear to Arceus she is a ceph whisperer.

[Amazonian Legends]

As in which post of fua's gave you the cop vibe?

oops meant to respond to this one then too. So, that's not important and I'm not going to share the little things I pick up on and look for when they're not relevant and might not even be right lol. I'm not trying to convince you that fua is a cop moreso I'm trying to understand why you were kinda sounding alarm bells when it seems unlikely for fua to be claiming cop as scum there and trying to determine how much you actually believed it.

[Amazonian Legends]

Tammy when y'all gonna get around to finalizing a read on us? Kthnx

When it comes?

I don't know. Mafia is hard.

[morph the cat]

Tammy when y'all gonna get around to finalizing a read on us? Kthnx

When it comes?

I don't know. Mafia is hard.

But will it be coming round the mountain when it does?

[Cephrir]

it is difficult to calm my kneejerk reaction of townreading to shirou's self-conscious posts.

[Amazonian Legends]

Tammy when y'all gonna get around to finalizing a read on us? Kthnx

When it comes?

I don't know. Mafia is hard.

But will it be coming round the mountain when it does?

heh

we have a read on you guys; it's just not locked.

[morph the cat]

it is difficult to calm my kneejerk reaction of townreading to shirou's self-conscious posts.

I just noticed your avatar likely has teeth if steel or needs a lot of dental work about two seconds after the snapshot he's in. Ouch.

[morph the cat]

Tammy when y'all gonna get around to finalizing a read on us? Kthnx

When it comes?

I don't know. Mafia is hard.

But will it be coming round the mountain when it does?

heh

we have a read on you guys; it's just not locked.

Then I declare complete and utter victory in this new arms race.

[Tejate Raichu]

As in which post of fua's gave you the cop vibe?

oops meant to respond to this one then too. So, that's not important and I'm not going to share the little things I pick up on and look for when they're not relevant and might not even be right lol. I'm not trying to convince you that fua is a cop moreso I'm trying to understand why you were kinda sounding alarm bells when it seems unlikely for fua to be claiming cop as scum there and trying to determine how much you actually believed it.

I still don't fully trust it myself. I don't really think softcrumbing, even if it appears unintentional, is very reliable evidence in this setup. That said I still don't really want to kill fua today.

[Cephrir]

I guess it's fine to look for the easy scum first. and i don't hate the argument against imaginality.

I have liked this stream of posts from GL, although it's not powerful enough for my concern level about him to vanish entirely... it sometimes treads into eyeglaze territory which fits sort of a, scum profile? that exists in my head

Can you talk more about that scum profile. What did you think about his push to get a redtea wagon started?

There was a theme game run by piegirl (i think) in which i (chandra nalaar) rolled ascetic tracker. there were two players in this game who tended to write a lot of words, but those words left me kind of cold and blah. that is, they had a lot of content but for whatever reason there wasn't a lot of life behind the posts for me / they were boring. i proceeded to get tracker guilties on both of them. since then i have viewed "lots of words that don't make me feel anything" with suspicion. i don't think it's a perfect match for GL this game at all, and even that string of posts i liked a bit as stated here, but something that came to mind.

i am mildly surprised to see him being so seemingly carefree but not super concerned or anything. i suppose i would be interested in why he chose redtea specifically.

[Cephrir]

Ffery just gave away the farm.

It's about her attitude at potentially being dead weight.

why did she do this? it seems out of character.