Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Amazonian Legends]

Morph - do you have an updated read on raichu? I’m know you made a post with reads a few pages ago but wondering where your thoughts are there.

[Amazonian Legends]

Implosion - part of your argument against gl is that he lacks paranoia. Is paranoia something common for him as a player?

[morph the cat]

Morph - do you have an updated read on raichu? I’m know you made a post with reads a few pages ago but wondering where your thoughts are there.

Yeah, kinda. He's below all the players I have claim/results reasons to townread, but is maybe(?) my strongest townread outside that group based mostly on how he's played today since he stopped putting his effort into defense.

[Amazonian Legends]

I’m caught up to today for the most part. I don’t mind walls at all, but that’s damn near 20 pages of death by words. My sleep aid is kicking in, and I don’t want to miss my window of actually falling asleep. So I’m gonna stop here at the point where Shirou claimed. I need to digest what I read instead of jump to “you wrote a lot of words, you get a townread and you and you”, so anyway I’m going to get my thoughts down tomorrow after I’ve had a chance to think instead of stare at the wall and go hey the flowers I bought myself today are really pretty.

Good night thread.

[Amazonian Legends]

Morph - do you have an updated read on raichu? I’m know you made a post with reads a few pages ago but wondering where your thoughts are there.

Yeah, kinda. He's below all the players I have claim/results reasons to townread, but is maybe(?) my strongest townread outside that group based mostly on how he's played today since he stopped putting his effort into defense.

Oh but real quick. I’m not really all that great at reading newbies, but I wanted your take since you have experience and both of you shared some interaction that I wasn’t totally sure how your feelings ended up. Anyway I still have him reading pretty earnest but I don’t trust myself right now.

[morph the cat]

He's not a true newbie. But iirc most of his experience is in discord and f2f games. Might be mixing him up with another player from the 2085 newbie game. I'll check on that when I'm at my laptop tomorrow.

[redtea]

interesting mix on/off of my wagon

[Amazonian Legends]

No I’m pretty sure your right. I just consider those different enough than forum mafia. He obviously has knowledge about the game and has a meta he thinks of for himself, but he’s still new to this style.

Yeah I think I need to go to sleep. I thought about the above sentence for too long lol

[Amazonian Legends]

Sorry to be silent so long. It's been A Week.

I've read and dozed and read some more. A few thoughts:

@Meg, sure, I can see where our delay might look scummy, but what do we get out of it? In the end there were no doc claims, and frankly anyone who's played with me ever knows that I don't comment on nights that turn out favorably for town without a very, very good reason. I'm not sure I ever have in 50+ games. Commenting was pretty much a blazing signal to morph that we were taking responsibility for the lack of kill in a way that I couldn't have backed out of.

This game is beyond dense. Again, probably played 50+ games here conservatively, and I don't think I've ever seen such an unreadable game. The word count is probably higher than the 300+ page monstrosity large themes that exist. I have a hard time believing that it's all town doing this. Yes, activity correlates to town, but this is blathering to blather; unfortunately I'm not sure who to blame yet.

Contrary to the above, I do support a redtea elimination today. I don't see the slot becoming inherently more readable, and I think everyone has talked about it enough that it makes for a good data point. It doesn't do anything to cut down on all the verbosity, but it gives context to that verbosity without cutting off our ability to get information out of any town participants.

I don't support a no-elim tomorrow without much better arguments for it. As someone (Tejate?) said, town's power is in eliminating, puny docs and cops aside.

I have thoughts on likely set-up stuff, but I don't think it's anything revolutionary, so I'll hold off on that until at least tomorrow.

If there's anything specific people want me to address, have at it. I'll try to get to it within the next 36 hours if that's reasonable.

--PA

[morph the cat]

Commenting was pretty much a blazing signal to morph that we were taking responsibility for the lack of kill in a way that I couldn't have backed out of.

This message was received loud and clear, as evidenced by our early day 2 posting. Megs if you (or anyone) doesn't see that in our posting lmk and I'll dig up the specific posts.

[morph the cat]

interesting mix on/off of my wagon

Great observation. Can we look forward to your thoughts on the mix in your next eagerly awaited post?

[Cephrir]

it's like sitting on the lake shore trying to spot nessie

[Amazonian Legends]

Oh, also, I really liked GL's snap-Enchant-town read.

Does anyone have a list of claimed PRs going? I have a theory that might be relevant the more I think on it.

--PA

[morph the cat]

it's like sitting on the lake shore trying to spot nessie

It's truly the homeopathic remedy of content.

[morph the cat]

Oh, also, I really liked GL's snap-Enchant-town read.

Does anyone have a list of claimed PRs going? I have a theory that might be relevant the more I think on it.

--PA

Amazons N1 doc, saved fua
Fua, Cop (not N1, otherwise unclaimed)
NumberQ, N1 cop, inno on cephrir
Shirou, N3 Cop, iirc?

If there's others I forgot.

[Enchant]

When we murdering?

[Enchant]

Oh, also, I really liked GL's snap-Enchant-town read.

Does anyone have a list of claimed PRs going? I have a theory that might be relevant the more I think on it.

--PA

Amazons N1 doc, saved fua
Fua, Cop (not N1, otherwise unclaimed)
NumberQ, N1 cop, inno on cephrir
Shirou, N3 Cop, iirc?

If there's others I forgot.

I am N2 Doc

[morph the cat]

Oh, also, I really liked GL's snap-Enchant-town read.

Does anyone have a list of claimed PRs going? I have a theory that might be relevant the more I think on it.

--PA

Same.

I don't know if Implosion's points about GL's lack of paranoia being AI, but it's one of the differences I'm seeing in GL's posts this game vs the holiday dancegame.

This game is pretty low energy compared to that one, though, and I think energetic pile-ons usually create energetic reactions.

Also I share the mood regarding the sheer density of posting in this game.

[Amazonian Legends]

Okay, so, theory that might be WIFOM. Scum know the breakdown of the cop:doc ratio as 6:4, 5:5, or 4:6. After Day One we had a flipped doctor and claimed Night Two doctor (this works best if we believe Ydrasse/Enchant, by the way; at this point I do and think they're town). Now, scum had kill options, and the fua kill did hit a claimed PR who was more dangerous than the other PR option along with a widely townread player. But it wasn't exactly the most incisive kill either. We were limping along in our following of the game, and we saw it as the best protect choice.

So why didn't scum go for a more townread player versus a PR? They knew N2 they'd have to be wary of the claimed doctor, and doc distribution on other nights is a crapshoot, theoretically. The smaller the player pool gets, too, the more likely any doctors protect the NK correctly.

Now, the pool is going to shrink regardless via elimination. But scum want to control the shrinkage with their own kills, which means if they seriously entertained the idea of a N1 doctor existing, they wouldn't have tried to kill the claimed cop.

The overall point of this, and maybe someone can refine my thinking here, is that I strongly suspect we're in a 6:4 cop:doc game. I'm NOT calling for a mass claim, to be clear. But I think it informs play around PRs going forward. Scum knew that with half the potential docs off the table, they'd have a very good shot (about two out of three, back of the envelope) that neither unclaimed doc would be N1. That makes the play worth it.

Having said that, I expect final claims to have five docs minimum, as obviously only four doc claims leaves them all as conf-town. This is less effective here, since if I'm right that means only one doc left hanging out unclaimed right now, and if that player is already highly townread, scum's mileage on counterclaiming versus letting it go drop a lot.

I could be completely offbase here. But the last part of that theory is that if scum know they have six town cops they're fighting, they're going to be positioning themselves around that now. Especially since I'd expect to see at least eight cop claims total. This means I'd expect scum to have planned their claims already and be ready to get them out there. I'm very much side-eyeing premature cop claims as such.

--PA

[Amazonian Legends]

Also, wagon:

imaginality (7):

fua, Ydrasse,

implosion, Shirou, GuiltyLion,

Cephrir,

morph the cat

Is interesting. I think given how the day was going/not going, I'm not putting too much weight on it, but the green folks are very likely town. Tammy had some theories about the wagon; not sure if seeing it here will help her organize them.

--PA

[GuiltyLion]

I think my current working theory is like

AL, fua, Ceph are locktown, but AL/Ceph are kinda taking the backseat and not driving so much, giving scum room to drive discussion

Meg/Tejate are limbait townies scum is planning on miseliminating

redtea is scum

there is another scum in implo/Shirou defending them so much (hot take wild conspiracy theory would be both but I don't really want to confbias myself that much yet)

and then the pool of people I need to sort more definitively alongside the implo/Shirou group is numberQ, Ydrasse, morph. All of them feel fairly town to me, numberQ especially I've liked a lot of his posts today, but it's not impossible there's a deep scum in there just coasting (assuming there is a town in implo/Shirou).

I thought about my "nobody is bussing redtea" thing but I think it's stupid, in a set up with so many cops scum probably don't want to bus unless they absolutely have to

this is still basically where my reads are at, even throughout all the hubbub of Shirou's claim yesterday. YdrassEnchant is a more confident TR now

I dunno how to respond the suggestion that I lack "paranoia" this game, I'm not going to be paranoid until my primary suspects flip green and my gamestate view is proven off the mark, imaginality flipping town was a bummer but not like wildly surprising. Maybe in a normal game I'd be a little more cautious around fua/Ceph slots but with mechanical information in their favor I put a lot of stock into that, especially since it's still just D2.

[GuiltyLion]

The overall point of this, and maybe someone can refine my thinking here, is that I strongly suspect we're in a 6:4 cop:doc game. I'm NOT calling for a mass claim, to be clear. But I think it informs play around PRs going forward. Scum knew that with half the potential docs off the table, they'd have a very good shot (about two out of three, back of the envelope) that neither unclaimed doc would be N1. That makes the play worth it.

I think you are making a little bit of a risky assumption in that there are only 4 docs, I could easily see worlds where most of the same logic applies and there are 5. However, I do agree with your overall conclusion that scum have probably already got claims pre-planned, and I think fakeclaiming cop is almost always better for them than fake claiming doc, so I also agree that Shirou's cop claim is worth a heavy dose of skepticism. Especially given that it felt like an emotional reaction to redtea being on the precipice of elimination. The frustrating thing is that I can imagine town or scum Shirou reacting emotionally that way when feeling like the gamestate is out of his control, so I'm trying not to bias myself too far in seeing his play as only possible from scum here.

However, claim aside, the parts I find harder to believe from town (and potentially indicative) are 1) he can't seem to commit to a real read on redtea or the game state, he called them town that I'm misyeeting several times and simultaneously backtracked on that several times to say I might be bussing, or 2) that he apparently wasn't concerned that claiming now would just result in scum killing him since the doc is already leashed to the virtually-confirmed cop claim, 3) he seemed to think a town!redtea flip would mean town would eliminate him on D3 (??)

Those things I find scummy, somewhat orthogonally to his claim itself

[GuiltyLion]

numberQ's cop claim could easily be faked, but the thing is if he's scum he's wasting a potential tool to fuck with the gamestate (fake cop guilty, fake later game CC) to instead clear a player that didn't feel especially pivotal to the gamestate. On the whole it's hard for me to see what scum!numberQ gains from that, other than maybe to get his claim out early so it's less likely to be doubted later.

[GuiltyLion]

I also think it's kinda dissonant Shirou 180'd over the last couple days from "I'm bored/apathetic with this game and don't have energy, let's just move on to D3" to "OMFG I'M COP AND GL IS SCUM AND I NEED TO DESTROY THE TOWNCRED OF HIS SLOT", the switch in mood/energy felt kinda outta nowhere for me

[Tejate Raichu]

Hello, back home briefly before going out again so I figured I'd check up on the thread.

He's not a true newbie. But iirc most of his experience is in discord and f2f games. Might be mixing him up with another player from the 2085 newbie game. I'll check on that when I'm at my laptop tomorrow.

Nope, that was me. That pretty much summarizes it.

@Meg, sure, I can see where our delay might look scummy, but what do we get out of it? In the end there were no doc claims, and frankly anyone who's played with me ever knows that I don't comment on nights that turn out favorably for town without a very, very good reason. I'm not sure I ever have in 50+ games. Commenting was pretty much a blazing signal to morph that we were taking responsibility for the lack of kill in a way that I couldn't have backed out of.

As soon as you asked about our reads on fua I could see the doc claim coming from a mile away. So if nothing else I think that strengthens your claim a bit. If you had done that and hadn't claim I'd be very suspicious of you.

I don't support a no-elim tomorrow without much better arguments for it. As someone (Tejate?) said, town's power is in eliminating, puny docs and cops aside.

I explicitly said I don't like Shirou's plan of locking no-elim tomorrow and kind of refuse to agree to it. Maybe there is a situation tomorrow where no-elim is good... and maybe it will do nothing but hurt town. I absolutely do not like the idea of deciding that before we can accurately judge what no-elim actually accomplishes tomorrow. The situation I would be most okay with is if redtea flips scum. Then, maybe, I could agree to it.

GL's posts I really have nothing to comment on because I have already expressed similar thoughts in other posts. I see nothing particularly out of place.

Also, regarding Meg's pet theory: I have thought about this some too, although I think you may be on the wrong track suspecting fua for it unless you believe Amazonian is also scum. Realistically the no NK scenario that makes most sense is Amazonian being scum, not her target. scum!fua and town!Amazonian would require the scum to essentially hope that there is a N1, so if this scenario was correct it actually makes most sense that we have 6 docs and 4 cops, not the other way around. That being said, this is still kind of conspiracy theory territory, no idea if any of this will have any value going forward.