Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Cephrir]

i'm not sure i believe this whole song and dance was just shirou's trap card.

[GuiltyLion]

Because even if redtea flipped town and GL was scum for example, as long as they believed I was gonna push for a no elimination rather than an elimination on them, they had something to gain by leaving me alive for today

this also feels fundamentally janky to me

if you are an N3 cop and I am scum, regardless of whether I believe you are going to vote no elim or not, regardless of whether I think you are viable to miseliminate, why do I not just kill you on N2 and guarantee you can't get a cop check off? Killing outed cops is like basic mafia play, the benefit to

killing a cop

is almost universally always better than whatever is gained from a singular townie asking for a no-lim, this still feels to me like a massive leap in logic to assume scum wouldn't kill you that I find hard to imagine coming from town

[Tejate Raichu]

If you are town, then whatever the hell this gambit is... you overcorrected greatly. I don't know if GL would have done it, but I knew well that there was 0 chance of pushing you without a guilty cop result. That is the main reason I wanted the non-existent N2 cop to check you. If you had held back and not made those posts, we would still probably be the only people in the game with decently solid SRs on you. I may not be as widely scumread anymore, but it should be fairly obvious to you that I'm not in the same standing as someone like Amazonian was. Do you honestly think I could have pushed a wagon you D3 without those posts? I was willing to hang back and advocate for a cop check. And maybe GL would have, but I highly doubt it would have gone far.

I can understand not wanting to be the night kill, but it should have been obvious that it was never going to be you. Not for night 2. Scum at the moment redtea became the main wagon had to reduce PoE as soon as possible. If anything, you were already SR'd just enough to not be the night kill even if we didn't have 3 pretty confirmed townies.

Also, I agree with GL's sentiment. Just about all of this reads like something scum would be saying to get out of a misplay.

[Shirou]

I didn't even start suspecting you until after you started accusing me of being scummy regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

First you were focusing on implosion yes, but I said above I disliked both your trajectory on me *and* on implo. I'll admit it may sound hypocritical to suspect you for something similar I did to you, but the issue is I didn't dislike the action per se. For example Implo was kinda like "Shirou can be scum even if I only mostly have reasons to town read them", and I had no issue with that.

It's just...the way you were going about it? It felt calculated, as if you were focusing so much on implo and later on me because you already knew what redtea was gonna flip so you were preparing on advance how to switch to voting those slots later, be it if redtea flips town by accusing us of "you had TMI", or if redtea flipped scum by accusing us of "you were defending your buddy".

I simply felt like you had an agenda when talking about redtea, me and implo. It felt as if all of it was done so that your trajectory later on would have been solid when looked at hindsight.

[morph the cat]

uhhh

it should be pretty obvious those reasons aren't especially compelling reasons to have somebody as strong town, especially in light of another player claiming to have a guilty result

how am I "hedging" by asking fua that question? do you think at any point I was going to actually suspect/accuse fua of lying? I wanted to understand what the thought process was, because it was a little bit of an odd way to play a guilty.

Like I said, I think you saw a potential opportunity to ride that fake guilty to our elim and then turn on fua the next day. You started the post saying you believed fua's guilty.

You hedged reasons to think we're scum, which I don't believe our day 2 play supports: We said on WEDNESDAY that we'd hammer redtea, and we repeatedly said we wanted Peng's thoughts in the thread, and we wanted a convo with her. Tammy, too, but Tammy was more of a presence on day 2 than Peng, though she was behind most of the game day.

They were confirmed town on day 2 and they were our one completely locktown read on day 1. Our stance regarding them and our intent to hammer redtea is in our iso and you glossed right over that.

I still think you're POE scum, none of that has really changed based on fua retracting the claim, just makes the game slightly harder than it would have been if it were a true guilty. what would you have expected town!GL to say, that I haven't said?

Well, you get to explain why you ignored PA's comfort level that Cabd was town when we flip. And that flip may very well happen today.

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't even start suspecting you until after you started accusing me of being scummy regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

First you were focusing on implosion yes, but I said above I disliked both your trajectory on me *and* on implo. I'll admit it may sound hypocritical to suspect you for something similar I did to you, but the issue is I didn't dislike the action per se. For example Implo was kinda like "Shirou can be scum even if I only mostly have reasons to town read them", and I had no issue with that.

It's just...the way you were going about it? It felt calculated, as if you were focusing so much on implo and later on me because you already knew what redtea was gonna flip so you were preparing on advance how to switch to voting those slots later, be it if redtea flips town by accusing us of "you had TMI", or if redtea flipped scum by accusing us of "you were defending your buddy".

I simply felt like you had an agenda when talking about redtea, me and implo. It felt as if all of it was done so that your trajectory later on would have been solid when looked at hindsight.

please cite specific posts

[GuiltyLion]

Like I said, I think you saw a potential opportunity to ride that fake guilty to our elim and then turn on fua the next day. You started the post saying you believed fua's guilty.

if I'm scum and you're town, I'd know fua is lying, correct?

so how on earth would I believe that I could actually ride the fake guilty, knowing that fua might retract it at any moment?

[Shirou]

if you are an N3 cop and I am scum, regardless of whether I believe you are going to vote no elim or not, regardless of whether I think you are viable to miseliminate, why do I not just kill you on N2 and guarantee you can't get a cop check off?

I thought maybe I would have died on night 2 now for this reason, but I also think scum doesn't have many miseliminations here, so in this scenario my slot is probably important to them. Even if scum didn't do it on night 2, they can try to miseliminate me on day 3 and if all fails try to NK me on night 3. There's certainly explanations here, otherwise I would have stopped suspecting you.

[Shirou]

I didn't even start suspecting you until after you started accusing me of being scummy regardless of any of redtea, Meg, or Tejate's alignments. Which I called out as a fundamentally disingenuous way of treating me. YOU were the one playing to a trajectory, not me

First you were focusing on implosion yes, but I said above I disliked both your trajectory on me *and* on implo. I'll admit it may sound hypocritical to suspect you for something similar I did to you, but the issue is I didn't dislike the action per se. For example Implo was kinda like "Shirou can be scum even if I only mostly have reasons to town read them", and I had no issue with that.

It's just...the way you were going about it? It felt calculated, as if you were focusing so much on implo and later on me because you already knew what redtea was gonna flip so you were preparing on advance how to switch to voting those slots later, be it if redtea flips town by accusing us of "you had TMI", or if redtea flipped scum by accusing us of "you were defending your buddy".

I simply felt like you had an agenda when talking about redtea, me and implo. It felt as if all of it was done so that your trajectory later on would have been solid when looked at hindsight.

please cite specific posts

...

too much effort GL, I already said I don't intend to effort that much here back in D2.

Just vote me if you want after tonight. Also I think there's a decent chance you're scum anyway so engaging you on your read on me may be wasted effort.

[Shirou]

If you are town, then whatever the hell this gambit is... you overcorrected greatly.

hmm

probably

[morph the cat]

Like I said, I think you saw a potential opportunity to ride that fake guilty to our elim and then turn on fua the next day. You started the post saying you believed fua's guilty.

if I'm scum and you're town, I'd know fua is lying, correct?

so how on earth would I believe that I could actually ride the fake guilty, knowing that fua might retract it at any moment?

What was believable about it to you?

[Shirou]

VOTE: Morph

I'm assuming Tejate is kinda out of the pool today as well for being able to guarantee fua gets a night result. Unless we do massclaim, that could change my mind about Tejate but yeah...and I don't think massclaim is a good idea but up to all of you.

Gonna do dailies and it seems I fulfilled my duty for now, probably not gonna post a lot today, see you.

Spoiler: me being silly

I'm genuinely sad about some stuff GL said if he's town but...okay.

I did all this because I wanted to avoid ever being today miselimination if I was wrong on redtea (which I was, and if I was miseliminated before copping someone, I would be

double

the negative utility for town), but somehow you think it's because I believe my reads are really good...? when it was the exact opposite...?

...

okay...

[GuiltyLion]

too much effort GL, I already said I don't intend to effort that much here back in D2.

great job making your point

I'm even good faith self-ISOing to try to see what could give you the impression I was maneuvering to push you after hard bussing my buddy the entire game and I'm seeing a lot of posts like these:

If you think I'm that good as scum, surely this is very likely not a defense on a buddy, at most white knight attempt for some town cred later.

Or you didn't really think much of what NSG said before about my skill as scum and you think that this can easily be a me/redtea scum team and I'm simply making a sloppy play here?

last post on this, to kinda reaffirm my 1325, the first sentence here is WIFOMy. I don't know your alignment so it might just be a defense of a buddy, I can't rule that out. Saying you wouldn't defend a buddy like this is not an argument I can just accept at face value. And like I said earlier, I don't think it would be necessarily sloppy at this stage, I don't think it'd be too hard to play this off like you didn't know redtea was going to flip scum.

all that aside, I still think your overall play is holistically more likely town than not, like I don't think the S-S explanation is what's likely happening here, but you'd be better served dropping this self-defense and actually just convincing me why I should be seeing redtea as town. Tying yourself to them in this way is not really helping me at all and kinda making it about you and your reads rather than redtea

I am not a night one doctor

I still think the wagonomics yesterday may make more sense if both redtea and imaginality are town though...hm, not sure.

can you explain this - why yesterday makes

more

sense with redtea as town? I'm town and I was pounding the table for redtea for a ton of yesterday and virtually nobody bit at it. The way you discount a scum!redtea possibility here doesn't sit right with me - while I can certainly imagine town!redtea I don't follow how you say it makes

more

sense than a rather straightforward possibility of redtea being scum coasting, townies didn't feel confident in it, and scum didn't push it to avoid putting too much pressure on a teammate.

I think scum!redtea was very likely gonna get bussed a bit there.

I think this is the best point in your favor, I'm not sure I feel confident saying definitively whether scum would bus scum!redtea or kinda sit out and hope the wagon dies, but if it were me I'd have felt pressured to bus (or at least solidly distance) in that situation given the possibility of cops breaking the game open and you're right I don't really see anyone doing that

I can also vibe with the suspicion on Meg/Tejate slots. Though I think I currently prefer Tejate over Meg given I was townreading NSG's content and I don't think Meg's entrance is as scummy as you're suggesting, I think scum would be more inclined to try to earn towncred. D1 it's easiest to get away with voting a mislim, I don't think scum!Meg would feel especially afraid of maneuvering onto either imag or redtea, avoiding the situation altogether I find sorta agenda-less.

but yeah, sure, I was toootallyyyy just playing a long game to push you on D3. in these dialogues here I'm practically begging you to help me keep townreading you lol

[morph the cat]

Like I said, I think you saw a potential opportunity to ride that fake guilty to our elim and then turn on fua the next day. You started the post saying you believed fua's guilty.

if I'm scum and you're town, I'd know fua is lying, correct?

so how on earth would I believe that I could actually ride the fake guilty, knowing that fua might retract it at any moment?

I'm not saying you went full bore with the idea. I'm saying that you saw the potential, and your stance gave you room for that option. We could have been quick-elimmed. fua could have insisted the guilty was real until we were hammered, as Wake did to me in this game.

I kinda hate linking that game because I completely lost my shit when Wake finally said it was a fake claim after I was hammered.

We believe fua is town despite the fake claims (yes claims) because faking a guilty today as scum is premature. It was awful play for a townie and it burned their cred with us for the duration of our time in the game.

[Cephrir]

I did all this because I wanted to avoid ever being today miselimination if I was wrong on redtea

how does making yourself look painfully like redtea's scumbuddy do this

[GuiltyLion]

Like I said, I think you saw a potential opportunity to ride that fake guilty to our elim and then turn on fua the next day. You started the post saying you believed fua's guilty.

if I'm scum and you're town, I'd know fua is lying, correct?

so how on earth would I believe that I could actually ride the fake guilty, knowing that fua might retract it at any moment?

What was believable about it to you?

it fit neatly in my current gamestate view, and I didn't have strong reasons to townread you, the best I had were the two I listed

I think my current working theory is like

AL, fua, Ceph are locktown, but AL/Ceph are kinda taking the backseat and not driving so much, giving scum room to drive discussion

Meg/Tejate are limbait townies scum is planning on miseliminating

redtea is scum

there is another scum in implo/Shirou defending them so much (hot take wild conspiracy theory would be both but I don't really want to confbias myself that much yet)

and then the pool of people I need to sort more definitively alongside the implo/Shirou group is numberQ, Ydrasse, morph. All of them feel fairly town to me, numberQ especially I've liked a lot of his posts today, but it's not impossible there's a deep scum in there just coasting (assuming there is a town in implo/Shirou).

I thought about my "nobody is bussing redtea" thing but I think it's stupid, in a set up with so many cops scum probably don't want to bus unless they absolutely have to

[fua]

Good to see mafia meta hasn’t changed in literally 10 years and that I’m the same person as Wake.

[morph the cat]

Good to see mafia meta hasn’t changed in literally 10 years and that I’m the same person as Wake.

Wake had nothing to do with mafia meta at the time.

You get the opportunity to redeem yourself in this game.

Use it.

[fua]

Apologize for being rude first.

[Cephrir]

i skimmed redtea's iso. i am awarding tejate one (1) townpoint. the rest of it is worthless

[morph the cat]

You can be as hurt as you like about my reaction to be fake-guiltied.

And can be as wrong as you wanna be about our alignment.

It's going to be a fact in evidence, though, and you're never going to have the mafia moral high ground over us in this game. We're completely justified in our opinion of your play.

[Cephrir]

my "people of interest" list who i will try to prioritize analyzing for interactions before i inevitably run out of energy consists of morph, shirou and meg. i will admit, the prospect of reading shirou's iso fills me with despair

[fua]

my "people of interest" list who i will try to prioritize analyzing for interactions before i inevitably run out of energy consists of morph, shirou and meg. i will admit, the prospect of reading shirou's iso fills me with despair

I personally would bet on Meg being town.

[fua]

You can be as hurt as you like about my reaction to be fake-guiltied.

And can be as wrong as you wanna be about our alignment.

It's going to be a fact in evidence, though, and you're never going to have the mafia moral high ground over us in this game. We're completely justified in our opinion of your play.

Except a good chunk of it wasn’t about my play, it was about me as a person beyond the game?

[morph the cat]

You can be as hurt as you like about my reaction to be fake-guiltied.

And can be as wrong as you wanna be about our alignment.

It's going to be a fact in evidence, though, and you're never going to have the mafia moral high ground over us in this game. We're completely justified in our opinion of your play.

Except a good chunk of it wasn’t about my play, it was about me as a person beyond the game?

It absolutely was about your play.

I don't know anything about you as a person. But I now have a very detailed opinion of you as a player.