Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 3.02

morph the cat (1):

fua

GuiltyLion (1):

morph the cat

Shirou (1):

numberQ

Not Voting (7):

Cephrir, GuiltyLion, implosion, MegAzumarill, Tejate Raichu, Enchant, Shirou

With 10 alive, it's 6 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is February 10 at 9:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-10 10:00:00)

[Shirou]

Also why would scum just not kill you right now anyway? You’re talking as if you know you’ll be around tomorrow.

Because I think I'll? I would be a bit surprised if scum NKs me.

Yesterday whether I was a possible miselimination or not was still a bit less obvious, but today it's VERY obvious that even if I came up with a guilty, I would be the first to go. If we believe most claims so far, scum doesn't have a lot of room to hide here, every miselimination is rather important for them.

That's the unique way for me to make sense of me not dying in N2, and therefore I don't think they would suddenly change their mind about what to do with my slot on N3?

I also would perhaps NK a slot like me if scum depending on circumstances, but they didn't so it shows that they probably plan to keep me around even if I'll get a cop shot off it.

There's also something else I've been thinking but it's suboptimal to say it aloud.

[Enchant]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

[Shirou]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

yeah that was actually the best plan but I don't think fua was considering it so I just explained it publicly...

[fua]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

Also why would scum just not kill you right now anyway? You’re talking as if you know you’ll be around tomorrow.

Because I think I'll? I would be a bit surprised if scum NKs me.

Yesterday whether I was a possible miselimination or not was still a bit less obvious, but today it's VERY obvious that even if I came up with a guilty, I would be the first to go. If we believe most claims so far, scum doesn't have a lot of room to hide here, every miselimination is rather important for them.

That's the unique way for me to make sense of me not dying in N2, and therefore I don't think they would suddenly change their mind about what to do with my slot on N3?
N3 cops can’t get results on N2.
I also would perhaps NK a slot like me if scum depending on circumstances, but they didn't so it shows that they probably plan to keep me around even if I'll get a cop shot off it.

There's also something else I've been thinking but it's suboptimal to say it aloud.

[fua]

Whoops.

N3 cops can’t get results on N2.

[fua]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

yeah that was actually the best plan but I don't think fua was considering it so I just explained it publicly...

Why in the world would I tell the truth about who I’m going to check?

[Enchant]

Wine?

[fua]

That’s literally the point.

[Shirou]

Lost opportonity to claim you will check Shirou but instead check someone else.

yeah that was actually the best plan but I don't think fua was considering it so I just explained it publicly...

Why in the world would I tell the truth about who I’m going to check?

hm, dunno, I just assume people leashing their targets are going to be honest?

/shrug

I also secretly think it's kinda sub-optimal to check me either way when I still can theoretically be the NK in any given case (I think we've more to lose than to gain by checking me tonight, as in, if I get checked and NK'd, we're in really a bad place), so I thought explaining it was better even if you were just poking at it, better safe than sorry or something?

[Shirou]

It was probably because I'm honest about my claimed targets so I probably often assume other people are but I guess it's dumb to think like that

[fua]

I don’t know why you think scum would equate a cop claim to a cop claim that has results. One is far more fearsome than the other and your play yesterday didn’t inspire confidence. Best case scenario here is that you’re town and you’re gonna die tonight.

[fua]

If you end up flipping town tomorrow morning then I think it’s safe to say scum were banking on you being miselimmed today. So either way I kind of agree that you shouldn’t be limmed at least for today. Making the mafia waste a NK is much more helpful.

[Shirou]

VOTE: Meg

either this or morph for me.

I don’t know why you think scum would equate a cop claim to a cop claim that has results. One is far more fearsome than the other and your play yesterday didn’t inspire confidence. Best case scenario here is that you’re town and you’re gonna die tonight.

hmm, hopefully I guess? but I claimed that I was N3, so if they were planning to kill me ever, I think it was a much better shot to do it at N2 where we already had 2 N2 doctors outed as not targeting me, and added to that I looked rather scummy due to redtea flip so I doubt any extra doctors would protect me yesterday.

However tonight is when I get my results...it's more reasonable to expect a doc targeting me now, so would they risk it at all?

Maybe I'm also imposing my own mindset as scum in the scum team here, since if I was scum and planned to kill a slot in the same situation than mine, I would always do it at N2 rather than risk waiting until the very night they can get a result (especially when a doc save also gives another elimination to town), but yeah, maybe I get NK'd I guess.

If you end up flipping town tomorrow morning then I think it’s safe to say scum were banking on you being miselimmed today. So either way I kind of agree that you shouldn’t be limmed at least for today. Making the mafia waste a NK is much more helpful.

yeah, I think similarly about this point.

[fua]

I don’t think it’s Meg.

[Shirou]

I don’t think it’s Meg.

I was kinda a bit confident on morph being scum since D1 but since I was wrong on so much this game, I'm kinda losing confidence I had anything right at all...

[Shirou]

I would compromisse on morph though if it ends up being the wagon for today

[Shirou]

honestly I'm just waiting for someone else to lead this day since my contributions so far weren't helpful...I think it's the kind of game where I need to shut up.

Which actually makes me sad that GL regardless of alignment seems to think I believe my reads to be good/special. Like...I'm so lost in this game, all of this is the result of me being a bit lost here, but hmm, okay I guess.

[Shirou]

I probably could compromise for almost everyone for today, except Ceph/Fua/Implo.

[Enchant]

Shirou do you think mafia keeps you alive to start claiming Cops intensive on next day to throw chaos party?

Because it's what i think they planning.

[fua]

I probably could compromise for almost everyone for today, except Ceph/Fua/Implo.

Replace Implo with Enchant.

[Shirou]

Shirou do you think mafia keeps you alive to start claiming Cops intensive on next day to throw chaos party?

Because it's what i think they planning.

you're treating me with so much goodwill that it almost brings a tear to my eye kkkk

thank you, really.

hmm, about the massclaim thing though, I don't think they would necessarily leave me alive for only that at all, but it's true that in my opinion, they could direct their nightkills a lot better if they know how many docs there are and who they are gonna be leashed into. Therefore I think they may not lead the massclaim suggestion as fua is doing, but I most certainly think they would agree to it.

If another person gets saved at night, we get an extra elimination. Since they already have one scum down and there's quite a number of trusted claims already, I think that's the most threatening mechanical part of this game right now. Fua does have a point though that maybe depending on role distribution, we could coordinate better knowing everyone roles, but hmm...I think it's a bit of a coin flip. Maybe massclaim can help us and maybe it can rob us of potential future advantages. Considering we already have now two cops and one doctor claimed (and one of the cops is suspected so a NK there isn't objectively bad), I think we should wait to massclaim on D4 or so, but again, I don't think my words hold much weight here...

I think their plan on leaving me alive is mostly to simply miseliminate me, preferentially today before I get a result, which is why I'm trying to fight off/defend myself for now on D3.

[Shirou]

I probably could compromise for almost everyone for today, except Ceph/Fua/Implo.

Replace Implo with Enchant.

after that post filled with goodwill towards me I could kkk, but not replace implo though...maybe add enchant to that list, but not replace Implo.

I've no idea how scum!Enchant plays though, their posts so far are good but I don't understand the confidence people have at the moment on them being town, however...I was also wrong for most of this game so far, so I believe I should trust others reads a bit more here.

I guess the list is now Ceph/Fua/Implo/Enchant then. I'll give you that if I'm wrong on someone in that list, the first person to come to mind is implo, but I don't think it's the case...I can't help but relate to their position on redtea since I was the same.

[Enchant]

But mafia already know how many docs and cops in game?

[Shirou]

But mafia already know how many docs and cops in game?

yes but they don't know who they are exactly right?

they can guess based on role distribution, but they can't nightkill with one hundred percent precision if they don't know the roles of everyone. For example, right now they don't know if there's an extra N3 doctor or not. There's a chance a save may happen today, but if we massclaim and leash the doctors, it's never happening.