Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]


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Post Post #2950 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:01 am

Post by implosion »

Alright. I'm annoyed that I think this is the best thing to do but it probably is since we're nominally ahead and this is the lowest-risk option.

I, too, am a night 3 cop. I'm claiming to avoid worst-case scenarios like me checking the same person as fua, or Shirou deciding to wifom off of GL for whatever weird reason or something, mostly the former. Also to avoid the risk of my claim looking really bad if I do hit the same person as fua or if i hit the nightkill. A very important thing to note is that for scum, if a n3 cop is chaining themself to a townie, then it's just as valuable for them to kill that townie as it is for them to kill the cop; both options leave the town with one less confirmed player. And Shirou is correct that fua lock-chaining themself to Shirou is a really bad idea because it makes Shirou a really good kill for scum if he's town; it'd deny the town
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confirmed townies in Shirou and GL (or a confirmed townie and a confirmed scum). fua is wrong that this would help the town, because it'd mean we'd be wasting fua's cop shot. We the town are nominally doing pretty well right now (and we have now 3 n3 cop claims which means we have a glut of info we're about to gain) so we should be making low-risk plays.

With that in mind, I propose a plan. We partition the player list into 3 groups: a group that I am allowed to investigate, a group that fua is allowed to investigate, and a group that Shirou is allowed to investigate (though if he is helliishly dead-set on investigating GL then we can just split the rest of the group). The list of valid investigation targets to split between us is everyone alive except for Cephrir (because numberQ is a strictly better target) and perhaps fua (though for the sake of this process, they might as well go in one of the pools). It also might be a slightly bad idea to investigate me or Shirou simply because of the risk of us being shot and investigated, but this is a much smaller risk with us not being chained-to, so we should still be in the pools. This is basically the best of both worlds: we don't chain ourselves to specific targets so scum don't get a much bigger NK-pool, but we can guaranteedly avoid two cops accidentally investigating the same person.

In case that doesn't make sense, an example set of pools (generating these by listing players alphabetically; these are not groups that I'm proposing)

Shirou: Enchant/fua/GuiltyLion
fua: implosion/Meg/morph
implosion: numberQ/Shirou/Tejate

Each person would be obligated to investigate one of the people listed in front of them, to guarantee we don't overlap investigations.

This breakdown is also assuming we no-lim; obviously if we lim then there'd be one less person in the groups. I'm sort of indifferent between a lim and a no-lim. And if Shirou wants to chain himself to GL then his group would be just GL. I think either fua or Cephrir could propose specific groups if they want to, or we could come up with them via consensus, but I pretty strongly feel this is the mechanically best thing for us to do because it minimizes risk and guarantees that we'll get two useful cop investigations worth of info at worst (and if scum want to kill ceph, then we'd be getting *three* useful cop investigations). Unless someone has a better idea. If people feel strongly about e.g. chaining me to someone then we can do that instead.
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Post Post #2951 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:07 am

Post by Cephrir »

I can't immediately see anything wrong with this plan.
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Post Post #2952 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:07 am

Post by Shirou »

that's not a bad plan implo, I was also worried about the same thing, and I find that post of yours rather town due to it really looking like a cop worried about wasting a night action.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2953 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:08 am

Post by implosion »

For my breadcrumb: look at all of the capitalized letters in my first 4 posts, before my fifth post starts with "Anyway." to mark the end of the breadcrumb, and you'll get CNOSONC.

This stands for Compulsive Novice One-Shot Odd-Night Cop, a set of modifiers that effectively work out to a (compulsive) night 3 cop.
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Post Post #2954 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:08 am

Post by Cephrir »

I think I'm probably opposed to investigating fua at the moment. Presumably no one actually would, but I'm tempted to remove it from the table.
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Post Post #2955 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:10 am

Post by Shirou »

you can give me a pool like you and fua for argument sake but just make sure there's GL on there I guess. I really doubt I'll change my mind that he's the best target for tonight but the pool thing is a good idea even if mostly useless in my case.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2956 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:12 am

Post by Enchant »

Doctor - imaginality
Doctor - Amazonian Legends
Doctor - Enchant
Doctor - Tejate Raichu
Doctor OR Cop -
Doctor OR Cop -
Cop - Fua
Cop - Shirou
Cop - numberQ
Cop - implosion

We hit minimal quota for every role.

... Cool?
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Post Post #2957 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:19 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

it's a good plan. I'm also fine with Ceph's suggestion of removing fua from the pools

I kinda want to either lim morph or no-lim, I don't think anyone else is a great wagon/vote right now, either by virtue of them claiming an informative role or by virtue of me not scumreading them especially strongly
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Post Post #2958 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:23 am

Post by Shirou »

ah, now that I think about it, my unique other suggestion for the plan is that I get added to fua's pool specifically. Why?

Even if implo investigated me, I believe most people are so suspicious of me that they would rather believe it's a scum team of implo + me than taking the claim at face value. I believe if implo checked me and claimed I was green, he may be miseliminated. The unique person that would probably not be likely miseliminated by claiming I'm green, is fua I think.

But, /shrug if there's an issue with this. I don't think so but...
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
(Aka Volpe14)
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Post Post #2959 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:29 am

Post by Cephrir »

the persecution complex.
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Post Post #2960 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:41 am

Post by Shirou »

In post 2959, Cephrir wrote:the persecution complex.
huh?

no I just want to avoid implosion being miseliminated, I really think he's town. If it was any other slot I wouldn't care.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
(Aka Volpe14)
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Post Post #2961 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:03 am

Post by Shirou »

I think as long as the "town core" of Fua/Ceph/Enchant/Implo isn't miseliminated and is also correct (as in they are all town), this game has good odds of being mech won, so I'm trying to avoid a scenario that goes against this.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2962 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:09 am

Post by morph the cat »

Are we seriously mass claiming today?
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Post Post #2963 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:10 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 2962, morph the cat wrote:Are we seriously mass claiming today?
Pretty sure implo was just claiming for the sake of that plan.
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Post Post #2964 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:12 am

Post by Shirou »

In post 2962, morph the cat wrote:Are we seriously mass claiming today?
I think by this point any other n3 cops should claim, but everyone else no imo.
"Que será, será. Whatever will be, will be."

"listen i know its funny to say shirou is scum but shirou is just literally crazy"
~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2965 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:14 am

Post by morph the cat »

Ceph, I'm making you feel bad. You're making me feel bad. So, I think the best option for me is just not interact any more unless you have something you actually want a response about.

I'm going to do the same with fua.
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Post Post #2966 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:15 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 2927, numberQ wrote:I mulled on it over night and I guess it does make sense to leave Shirou alive today. It gives me a lot of pause though because the biggest proponent of that plan is the person who's at the chopping block. So if Shirou is scum that means Shirou getting out this investigation factors into scum's plans somehow. But idk, maybe it's just desperation to last as long as possible.

Actually, even if Shirou isn't scum, there hasn't been much push to lim him today besides from me, and I don't think that would be a difficult mislim to pull off. Which means either way him surviving to tomorrow is part of scum's plan.

hmm. I'm gonna leave my vote here but I plan to look back and focus on who the other scum might be.
If it helps quell your doubts, I still think Shirou is megascum but I'm okay with letting him live one day since we are very much ahead. If we're wrong on scum!Shirou, then the investigation result has value. If not, we can ignore it. I see no-elim ---> Shirou elim as a win/win pretty much, and as such I actually no longer think it's a good idea to cop Shirou in these circumstances. He's either a night kill, or an elim.
In post 2938, GuiltyLion wrote:stop posting self defenses and start scumhunting, no one is limming you today by virtue of your claim you have a free day, and you're still just pumping out wall after wall about why you don't play this way as scum, which is virtually useless. that's why I haven't been interested in what you have to say, defending yourself is literally the least valuable thing you could be doing for me right now
Probably the only thing left giving me pause on scum!Shirou is that this is kind of like looking in a mirror. This is almost exactly what half of my day 2 was.

That being said, I'll place my vote now. If you've paid attention to my posts today this shouldn't really be a big surprise.
VOTE: No Elimination

We're still a good ways away from LiLo, and on the off chance Shirou is town we potentially get valuble results or force scumteam to be one down on mis-elim.
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Post Post #2967 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:16 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

yeah, I think after stewing on it for a bit, docs should claim the day before their night action, and then any cops can claim if a doc claims
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Post Post #2968 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:19 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Tejate why No Elim over Morph elim? I get why we shouldn't lim Shirou, but that doesn't mean we have to vote no elim
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Post Post #2969 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:21 am

Post by morph the cat »

I'm not really in favor of no-elim.

Eliminating us eliminates town, though.
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Post Post #2970 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:21 am

Post by Tejate Raichu »

In post 2968, GuiltyLion wrote:Tejate why No Elim over Morph elim? I get why we shouldn't lim Shirou, but that doesn't mean we have to vote no elim
Morph isn't really that strong of a scumcase for me, I feel like I have maybe a slightly better read on them but I'm still not all that confident. I'll vote them if you guys are that convinced that they'll flip red, but I think this vote is pretty sound mechanically speaking.
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Post Post #2971 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:22 am

Post by implosion »

We should definitely not end the day until fua chimes in and we settle on what the actual groups we're using are.
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Post Post #2972 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:24 am

Post by MegAzumarill »

I am a fan of the current groups
Do not want to be grouped with Shirou
The others I'm fine with
Imprefection is the spice of life.
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Post Post #2973 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:26 am

Post by Shirou »

well, I'll let you and fua sort out the groups/pools and then I /confirm it later. You can leave me with the unpicked slots out of you two.

Maybe we should do a draft order starting with fua?
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~Firebringer on town!Shirou
"Not if it was Volpe's PLAN all along that we lim him and when he flips red we think Wooper is scum"
~town!Norwee jokes about scum!Shirou's actual plan
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Post Post #2974 (ISO) » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:53 am

Post by catboi »

(「・ω・)「

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