And, for the record, joquiza just came out of his coma and put me at e-1
and you didn't get hammered... wow... most likely maf
I think it's more likely both the scum are already on me, so not much can really happen. Either that or it would look suspicious if I got hammered unexpectedly and flipped green. Or it could be that scum see how ridiculous my wagon is but also how ridiculously inept town is proving to be and are content to let it play out. There are a myriad of reasons outside of what conveniently fits your agenda. I'm praying you're scum, though, because there's no reason a player should be this...gut-wrenchingly counterproductive.
I'm TRing Looker I think. And I still feel good about Roadkill. I still don't think Sleepless/Dwlee are ever partnered, so that leaves me with two possibilities:
1) Andante is a wolf, and town!Umlaut's TR on her is wrong
2) I miscleared Umlaut and he's powerwolfing us
In possibility two, Umlaut's most likely partner is Dwlee, who he's been chainsawing for. (Could theoretically be partnered with Andante herself, but I think him saying he'd "eat a hat" if she flipped scum is... too bold for SvS).
Still need to dig into Dwlee activity stuff. Should have some time this evening.
Are you saying I'm only partnered with people I've voted?
Correct, although if you're town then accurate assessment would show you as unviable with everyone.
Is Sleepless Assassin saying they have a townread on you really the only reason you're not voting for them?
Yeah, pretty much. If someone outs a townread on me I don't want to vote them unless I'm sure they're scum.
Re:Andante/Dwlee - Are you saying that they can't be scum together because they defended each other in thread?
No, I think them defending each other actually gives them some equity, which is why they are only colored yellow rather than red. I explained why they don't read partnered to me in the original post.
Also, are you actually assessing the arguments people used to suspect each other or using this as an excuse to avoid reading a picking a side?
I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, but yes, I'm actually assessing people's posts.
In post 376, joqiza wrote:I'm TRing Looker I think. And I still feel good about Roadkill. I still don't think Sleepless/Dwlee are ever partnered, so that leaves me with two possibilities:
1) Andante is a wolf, and town!Umlaut's TR on her is wrong
2) I miscleared Umlaut and he's powerwolfing us
In possibility two, Umlaut's most likely partner is Dwlee, who he's been chainsawing for. (Could theoretically be partnered with Andante herself, but I think him saying he'd "eat a hat" if she flipped scum is... too bold for SvS).
Still need to dig into Dwlee activity stuff. Should have some time this evening.
If I take this reasoning seriously then I have to conclude Andante is a wolf. In that case who do you think is
her
most likely partner?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
which was part of why it was "interesting" -- a couple of people who are otherwise at odds have said Sleepless is a launch candidate for them, so I wanted to see who would actually vote them if they became a plausible wagon. But pretty much no one followed me there so I can't get anything from that.
Even though I've kind of tipped my hand, I will still put this out there explicitly: Andante, I am much more interested in launching Sleepless than Looker atm, so why not join me there? Looker is going to be a hard sell for you.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
Dead game tbh. Not that I blame anyone as there's nothing to go off of.
I read through from the top and I'm officially marking Dwlee/Looker as unviable on the teams matrix. Both for the argument on Dwlee's activity today and for the timing of 268.
I'm mustering up the energy to take a look at the Andante coalition scum game that esther referred to.
Well... this is what I was afraid of. This is pretty stone-cold if it's a bluff. Now I'm really not sure what to make of the game.
Yeah I have like 30 posts all game that game, was busy IRL, Galron wanted to be in the group of 5, so I sat back and let him do his thing, I really did not play that lol but if you wanna compare the games... go for it
What are you afraid of? Me actually being town? cause that's happening
In post 385, Andante wrote:
What are you afraid of? Me actually being town? cause that's happening
Yeah pretty much this LOL.
You being town is basically an immediate indicator that I've screwed the pooch somewhere cuz then I've PoE'd down to Dwlee/SA who I really don't think are partnered.
Maybe Looker is right that Dwlee is willfully ignoring this game. They've certainly made enough posts on site in the last 48 hours.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
Well I skimmed andante's coalition scum game where she barely posted and I see why Esther felt she might be town here if that was the standard. It probably isn't representative but it's kind of towny for Andante to caution me against drawing a comparison that would reflect favorably on her.
Dwlee idk. I don't want to assume things wrt activity and they might be... I think either they don't prioritize this game or it's difficult for them to post for some reason, which could be related to alignment or could just be IRL stuff. The meatier part of the case against them, to me, is their use of team reads to justify their vote on d1. When they expressed a desire to "vote a player because they existed in most worlds" they seem to have indirectly assigned equal probabilities to all of their remaining possibilities (this is the "principle of indifference"). This isn't really how I go about using associatives, my chart on the previous page is more of a mental organization tool and I don't actually view all the green "viable" squares as equally likely.
That said I don't really know if applying the principle of indifference is wolfy because I've never really seen it before in a game like this. I mostly just think it's (sorry) a bit lazy.
I guess the last thing for me to do is look a bit deeper into the case on SA and then decide my final vote for today.
mmm... from me i think that this might mean a bit less as noted dwlee pusher but in a game where the majority of people have offered at least some reason to be town, indifference is +mafia. i don’t like to think of things so simplistically but... everyone else cares a lot more. people are willing to put in the work.
maybe it’s uh... a bit selfish too to really want dwlee dead today but if they are town and they don’t die... we’re sent into eliminate or lose with a slot that does not promises us anything. they could become more active in that situation, but i’m wary that they would. and then i’m scared that i’m left alive, and i just keep yelling about the same wishes to kill them. (i would evaluate more in that situation but... i don’t know what other conclusions i /could/ come to about them when there’s nothing to even change my mind posted).
andante i think is town or at least not mafia with sleepless because... tempting fate when there is no real need to like that is silly for a mafia to do. it’s good distancing if they are buuuuuut it runs the risk of sleepless just dying. (actually i don’t know if it does because a bluff like that is effective if it is one buuuuut... whatever).
(had fleeting thoughts about umlaut/dwlee as well for the timing of the sleepless (?) vote but it feels unfounded for the rest of umlaut’s posts the same way it’s unfounded i thought joqiza was intentionally being afk to let the gamestate become apathetic and wagons shift:.. i don’t think this is the reality at all and that would be uncool to accuse seriously but it passed my mind so sorry).
hypocritical it is but i don’t trust too strongly the chart of associatives yet i kind of have had only time in the mornings for this and am tired at night to read but i’ll try to sort it out tonight. i have my own thoughts here clearly like not andante/sleepless but... admittedly i get scared of a good interaction or two clearing the correct team especially in this game where there is a lot /less/ interaction so like, if you talk 2-3 times and one of those is really good and you skate by... yeah). (the effort of doing so at a glance though or without diving in is towny unless joqiza is partnered with someone in danger where then he would have to be power wolfing to carry but i don’t think that is as likely probably.)
I am slightly burnt out of mafia. I am doing a recharge week. I have been in very intense games off-site in the past week and I am no longer in them but that no longer being in them thing contributed to me burning out. I recognize I need to post more for the good of the game but in-depth analyzing is for this weekend. If anyone wants to ask me questions or point me in the direction of things to give opinions on go for it but this is mobile dwlee for a couple days
In post 391, Dwlee99 wrote:I am slightly burnt out of mafia. I am doing a recharge week. I have been in very intense games off-site in the past week and I am no longer in them but that no longer being in them thing contributed to me burning out. I recognize I need to post more for the good of the game but in-depth analyzing is for this weekend. If anyone wants to ask me questions or point me in the direction of things to give opinions on go for it but this is mobile dwlee for a couple days
Another question: Are you only "burned out" of games that are at Day 2 versus games that are at Day 1? Hypothetically, would you post more if this game were on Day 1?
Also: Is your plan to lurk until deadline and just see what shakes out? Do you feel that you can effectively stall out suspicion?
1.) Bussing is a thing
2.) I already addressed what was incorrect.
Like, you can say oh dwlee is posting elsewhere idc. If you actually look at any context I think the argument makes no sense but this is skirting the ongoing games rule. If the game is in ELO it will get priority. If the game is in any other state idk depends on how active I feel like I need to be based on gamestate.
I'm way too tired to read and think today but I'm somehow feeling both bored and overwhelmed at the same time. It just feels like nothing happened to change my mind since Day 1 on anything and it's hard to see anything that will without a flip. Umlaut and joqiza and probably Roadkill too I'm confident are town. Dwelee I'm confident is scum. Looker I haven't seen a convincing case on. Andante I think I need flips to sort. So it really just feels like a waiting game.
I'm trying to read through the kids crying but I'm just not processing words. Aren't snow days fun?
3-2 as scum and 5-8 as town
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