Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

Morph does have a good point about GL's reaction to my claim

no they don't? What exactly in my reaction suggests that I was aware it was a fakeclaim? Like, their argument is that I was hoping you'd push it through for a miselim, but if I were scum I'd know it was fake, so I'd be likely to hedge or act uninformed. I just straight up believed your claim, how does that look scummy in your eyes?

Tejate has just tried to cover for GL twice to ensure that it's less likely that he gets investigated-- which could come from a sentiment of the issues we've discussed beforehand, but it's also indicative of an association between the two, especially when GL was one of the main reasons the wagon on Tejate dissipated in the first place.

Where has he done this? I want to be investigated tonight and think it's correct for us to do so. Limming me first is bad

A big thing that sparked my suspicion in this was actually Shirou (At least, I think it was Shirou) bringing up the fact that GL's insistence on limming redtea implied TMI, and with GL trying to get towncred for that exact thing I feel as if he's right on the money. I'm not exactly the best at casing people but if we're just going to take every claim at face value and work our way down from there I think that Tejate and GL have the most partner equity between them out of any pair in the game.

I tried to get redtea limmed from pretty much the start of the game. I have not tried to milk any towncred for it, I will admit I often bus my buddies, but how do you distinguish between town!GL nailing a scum and scum!GL bussing a buddy - why is my play in your mind indicative of the latter rather than the former? And why do you think that's more likely than scum instead being hesitant to lose anyone in a cop heavy setup?

it's still correct to no lim today. Let Shirou investigate me, if he claims a guilty we can hash it out tomorrow, especially if Shirou is also investigated. Wagoning me is not the move.

[GuiltyLion]

I do see how if Tejate is scum, I might be a partner given how I played, but I just don't think Tejate's scum here. Again though, it's just strictly better to let cops get results before we lim anybody claiming a future night role

[morph the cat]

Actually, if you read the post before that one, I was assuming it was real. The reason I said I'd policy you in the first place is because the current discussion was about the guilty being fake,

as brought up by morph

. I

suggested

policy as a way to resolve a discussion I saw as going in circles because I

honestly

half-believed

the claim.

:/


I hate this entire line of thought. Extra weasel-worlds. Minimizes your own agency...

[morph the cat]

Again though, it's just strictly better to let cops get results before we lim anybody claiming a future night role

We nearly hammered nolim last night and of all the things we expected, waking up to more votes on you was not even in our headspace.

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually, if you read the post before that one, I was assuming it was real. The reason I said I'd policy you in the first place is because the current discussion was about the guilty being fake,

as brought up by morph

. I

suggested

policy as a way to resolve a discussion I saw as going in circles because I

honestly

half-believed

the claim.

:/


I hate this entire line of thought. Extra weasel-worlds. Minimizes your own agency...

But it's true! I wouldn't have even brought up the possibility had you not! I mentioned that specifically because I feel like fua skimmed over the context of me saying that. I even said in my day 3 opener that fua investigating morph made sense.

[Tejate Raichu]

Furthermore, fua you say that I'm posturing to get implo night killed. I still don't understand how that makes sense, but let's assume for the sake of argument that I said something that could be construed as doing that. Why on earth would I kill implosion in the case of scum!me and scum!GL? Shirou is hard locked on GL tonight. Does it not make far more sense to kill town!Shirou in this situation? Of the 2 claimed cops with no leashes, town!Shirou is the least likely to receive protection and if I was scumbuddies with GL that means it would be in my best interest to get Shirou out of there. It is not worth going to a 1f1 here, and you should know that. So again, why on earth would I set myself up to kill implo tonight? That's not wine, that's just straight up throwing the game if I'm scum.

[Tejate Raichu]

scum with GL^

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, killing implo would not really help all that much given the pools, because fua could resolve either Tejate or Shirou and either would be bad for the scum!Tejate/scum!GL team

regardless, it's still just best to either lim somebody who already used their power or no lim. I've thought about it and limming anybody in {Tejate, morph, Ceph, Meg, implo, fua, Shirou, GL} is just not correct, because a town miselim is a bigger loss of utility than what we gain from 'info' of their flip, especially when we are guaranteed at least 2 claimed results tomorrow

I think probably unfortunately there's a good chance implo dies if he's a cop, but his pool is the least useful group of people to confirm one way or the other compared to fua/Shirou claim results, and it means we would at least have Ceph alive as a pseudoconf town. morph or meg can be POE'd and a fua guilty would basically break open the game. Tomorrow probably goes to a 1v1 between me and Shirou if he claims guilty, if he claims inno then I'm not the D3 lim and we go by fua's result and/or debate the prospect of limming Shirou regardless.

[GuiltyLion]

Tejate has also been making a lot of weird assertions about what scum would and wouldn't do, explaining their motivations behind kills/trying to drive home a narrative beyond that too and it kind of shows. He's also the one that's been trying to get the most milage out of Shirou to build up an association between him (Shirou) and Redtea, and it's hard not to feel like GL is joining in the mix to support that.

also wtf is this

I was like, straight up battling Shirou all of D1 and D2 prior to redtea flip to get redtea fucking flipped

if anyone made a Shirou-redtea association, it was Shirou

[Enchant]

yeah, killing implo would not really help all that much given the pools, because fua could resolve either Tejate or Shirou and either would be bad for the scum!Tejate/scum!GL team

regardless, it's still just best to either lim somebody who already used their power or no lim. I've thought about it and limming anybody in {Tejate, morph, Ceph, Meg, implo, fua, Shirou, GL} is just not correct, because a town miselim is a bigger loss of utility than what we gain from 'info' of their flip, especially when we are guaranteed at least 2 claimed results tomorrow

Basically you suggest elim me and... ANd...
Who is the second one who didn't pass?

[GuiltyLion]

numberQ

and if you look at my vote, I'm actually suggesting not lim, not to lim either of you.

[Enchant]

Ah yeah thx.

No.

[GuiltyLion]

fua I'm honestly kinda hoping this is just some kind of weird gambit to test morph/Shirou. If those were your genuine thoughts you've gone way too far into paranoia land

a lot of your 3067 relating to Tejate's play is just not grounded in reality, as far as I can tell. He hasn't tried to get people to not investigate me, and he has been doing the

least

painting of a Shirou/redtea associative of the three of us. Like if you think Shirou is town being set up to look bad on redtea flip, it was definitely me doing that, not Tejate.

But even I didn't initiate that, Shirou went to bat for redtea extremely hard of his own volition on both D1 and D2, even early on D1 when he was widely townread. Like he even said in his own words 1114 - "if redtea is scum I may have fucked up" that's how hard he chose to defend them. On D2 he preemptively claimed and pushed me trying to argue both that I was mis-eliminating redtea AND that I was bussing redtea, and called BOTH scenarios "obvious". Me and Tejate didn't make him do any of that, it was very clear he was hard against the redtea elim under all circumstances, I reactively started calling it out more and more the harder I had to fight to get that lim.

[GuiltyLion]

If you think I'm that good as scum, surely this is very likely not a defense on a buddy, at most white knight attempt for some town cred later.

Or you didn't really think much of what NSG said before about my skill as scum and you think that this can easily be a me/redtea scum team and I'm simply making a sloppy play here?

last post on this, to kinda reaffirm my 1325, the first sentence here is WIFOMy. I don't know your alignment so it might just be a defense of a buddy, I can't rule that out. Saying you wouldn't defend a buddy like this is not an argument I can just accept at face value. And like I said earlier, I don't think it would be necessarily sloppy at this stage, I don't think it'd be too hard to play this off like you didn't know redtea was going to flip scum.

all that aside, I still think your overall play is holistically more likely town than not, like I don't think the S-S explanation is what's likely happening here, but you'd be better served dropping this self-defense and actually just convincing me why I should be seeing redtea as town. Tying yourself to them in this way is not really helping me at all and kinda making it about you and your reads rather than redtea

do y'all really think this is a post I ever write as scum if I know redtea is scum and I'm

trying

to paint false associatives

I held onto my Shirou townread for a long time, until he started trying to push me over redtea on D2. he has been the one constantly dumping WIFOM around his play and around his redtea defense, start to finish.

[GuiltyLion]

like, the whole game really has had this constant thread of Shirou trying to assert the following:

1. It is bad play to defend a scumbuddy so obviously/visibly
2. Anyone who scumreads me must therefore think that my scum game is bad, if you think my scumgame is good, then I cannot be partners with redtea

and this is just a really WIFOMy unsound argument that I've tried to address several times. I think it can often be good play to vocally defend your scum buddies if it keeps them alive, and redtea was within like one or two more legit Tejate scumreads of making it to D3. Further, while I personally believe Shirou's play very much looks buddied here, I know a lot of people tend to assume scum teammates don't defend their partners so hard and would likely give him anti-partner credit for making such a bold play. Shirou has tried, since D1, to force people into a dichotomy of "Shirou scumgame bad or Shirou town", it's not a genuine argument and it's manipulative.

[GuiltyLion]

for Shirou posts making this argument, see: 1125, 1128, 1439 (spoilered), 2300 and 2301

me addressing this argument: 1325, 1327, 2303

[fua]

Furthermore, fua you say that I'm posturing to get implo night killed. I still don't understand how that makes sense, but let's assume for the sake of argument that I said something that could be construed as doing that. Why on earth would I kill implosion in the case of scum!me and scum!GL? Shirou is hard locked on GL tonight. Does it not make far more sense to kill town!Shirou in this situation? Of the 2 claimed cops with no leashes, town!Shirou is the least likely to receive protection and if I was scumbuddies with GL that means it would be in my best interest to get Shirou out of there. It is not worth going to a 1f1 here, and you should know that. So again, why on earth would I set myself up to kill implo tonight? That's not wine, that's just straight up throwing the game if I'm scum.

He’s a cop claim. You openly admitted you want Shirou dead tomorrow and claim that you’re doc leashed to me. That’s literally why you’re trying to move GL so that Shirou isn’t targeting him. Process of elimination. Why are you concerned about your biggest scumread checking GL? Do you think that GL will be killed over any of the three cop claims?

[GuiltyLion]

Sure. I also think it's best to swap nQ/Meg. So how does this look:

Shirou: GL/numberQ
fua: implosion/Shirou/Tejate
implosion: morph/Meg

If we're still here I guess, I'd like to mention again that my one issue with this list is Shirou. I feel like it's kind of obvious that Shirou is just going to target GL if he's a real cop, and we should probably treat it as such. I highly doubt Shirou has much interest in checking nQ's alignment.

are you misunderstanding Tejate, fua? This post isn't trying to move me out of the cop pool, it's pointing out nQ could be checked by someone else. It's the exact opposite of what you're accusing him of, if anything Tejate has been trying to tie Shirou to only investigating me

[fua]

That’s a good point. Maybe Shirou is actually being postured to be killed and I’m just misunderstanding the situation. It would explain why implo has low value targets like Morph and Meg. Me having Tejate compared to implo and Shirou also doesn’t make much sense since I was townreading him before this.

[fua]

Wanting Shirou to have you specifically then him dying would be a strong plan since it guarantees a scum result doesn’t come out.

[GuiltyLion]

if Shirou dies tonight, absolutely I should be suspected due to that, but let's wait until that actually happens before we go assuming I'm scum and that's my plan?

[Tejate Raichu]

Furthermore, fua you say that I'm posturing to get implo night killed. I still don't understand how that makes sense, but let's assume for the sake of argument that I said something that could be construed as doing that. Why on earth would I kill implosion in the case of scum!me and scum!GL? Shirou is hard locked on GL tonight. Does it not make far more sense to kill town!Shirou in this situation? Of the 2 claimed cops with no leashes, town!Shirou is the least likely to receive protection and if I was scumbuddies with GL that means it would be in my best interest to get Shirou out of there. It is not worth going to a 1f1 here, and you should know that. So again, why on earth would I set myself up to kill implo tonight? That's not wine, that's just straight up throwing the game if I'm scum.

He’s a cop claim. You openly admitted you want Shirou dead tomorrow and claim that you’re doc leashed to me. That’s literally why you’re trying to move GL so that Shirou isn’t targeting him. Process of elimination. Why are you concerned about your biggest scumread checking GL? Do you think that GL will be killed over any of the three cop claims?

Move GL? I was suggesting we move nQ and Shirou respectively. I didn't want implo to be the one to check Shirou because I am still entertaining an associative read. Fua, are you sure you're actually digesting my posts? Because if anything I suggested the opposite of moving GL. I suggest that we just leave Shirou leashed to GL tonight if he's a real cop. And yes, I do want Shirou dead tomorrow in lieu of a guilty result.

[GuiltyLion]

for the record I still disagree with Tejate on the Shirou/implo associative

again, I am skeptical they both take the same approach to defending redtea, but then implo

also

claiming N3 cop totally put that idea to bed. It's just so limiting for an implo/Shirou team, one of their cop claims will be soon exposed as fake if they claim a fake guilty, and if implo claims an inno on Shirou then Shirou can never be flipped or else they instalose, and any implo flip would add to the evidence against Shirou

[Tejate Raichu]

Regardless, if anyone is going to check Shirou I'd rather it be the confirmed townie.

[numberQ]

fua's GL/Tejate solve is wild. I'm not going to explicitly hold it against you because I did the same thing, but what's the point in limming GL today even if you think he's scum? Is there anything lost by seeing the N3 cop results before we start honing in? Honestly I feel this theory should have waited to come out until tomorrow.