Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

Enchant · Post Post #3225 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:05 am

In post 3224, Shirou wrote:how confident are people other than fua that Enchant is town?

I feel like this game can still kinda make sense if Enchant is scum with one of NQ/Morph

Other than that I believe eventually we need to get to WIFOM territory about the claims.

I am confident that Enchant is town.

morph the cat · Post Post #3226 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:06 am

This doesn't look like Enchant's scum game to me.

Shirou · Post Post #3227 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:06 am

Yeah, honestly I really think fua is scum here if it's not an easier solve inside of Enchant/NQ/Morph.

Maybe I can be wrong on GL and that would make this game more reasonable as well, but I...don't want to risk that. Everything at the moment kinda points to him begin town you know...it would have been a huge gamble if he was scum. /shrug.

(although somehow fua/GL also really makes a lot of sense to me considering fua play yesterday...)

Shirou · Post Post #3228 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:07 am

In post 3227, Shirou wrote:begin

being*

Enchant · Post Post #3229 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:07 am

In post 3227, Shirou wrote:Yeah, honestly I really think fua is scum here if it's not an easier solve inside of Enchant/NQ/Morph.

Maybe I can be wrong on GL and that would make this game more reasonable as well, but I...don't want to risk that. Everything at the moment kinda points to him begin town you know...it would have been a huge gamble if he was scum. /shrug.

(although somehow fua/GL also really makes a lot of sense to me considering fua play yesterday...)

Um.

I think Fua who was saved by Doc, who was then killed are pretty town?

Enchant · Post Post #3230 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:08 am

It's like galaxy brain "OH WELL LET'S SKIP KILL AND HOPE SOME N1 DOC WILL HEAL ONE OF US"

morph the cat · Post Post #3231 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:08 am

End of Day 3 I was thinking GL and Shirou both had scum equity, but wasn't sure they make sense as a team. I'm still not sure of that.

Shirou · Post Post #3232 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:08 am

but at the same time, ever risking an elimination on fua is gonna be so "gamethrowing bad" if I'm wrong that...

Yep, I'm leaving this on your hands, I don't want to touch that kkkkkk

the blaming on postgame if I'm wrong would be insane and understandable

p-edit: it was an intentional no night kill because scum!fua would have expected a doc to target them since they had claimed cop and were being town read

morph the cat · Post Post #3233 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:09 am

In post 3230, Enchant wrote:It's like galaxy brain "OH WELL LET'S SKIP KILL AND HOPE SOME N1 DOC WILL HEAL ONE OF US"

Yeah, this.

And his reaction to our blowing up about the fake guilty also looked town, both of which are why we never assumed he was scum faking that.

Shirou · Post Post #3234 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:11 am

In post 3230, Enchant wrote:It's like galaxy brain "OH WELL LET'S SKIP KILL AND HOPE SOME N1 DOC WILL HEAL ONE OF US"

yeah...and it's the kind of shit I would attempt to pull honestly?

I would try to get "mechanically confirmed" by a doc if I was scum here, and it's one of the "fun gambits" that I mentioned scum being able to do in this setup.

but blah

I shouldn't have talked about this yet for reasons, but I think this is my last day here so I just wanted to get my thoughts out.

morph the cat · Post Post #3235 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:12 am

If Shirou is scum, I don't think he "innos" his partner today, given the amount of suspicion he was under at the end of day 3.

That's not bet-the-farm level clearing of Meg, but it's close.

Shirou · Post Post #3236 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:12 am

hopefully this game is easier than that, but like I told you, I already know I'm not scum, so the pool in my pov is conveniently Morph/NQ. If one of those is town, and Enchant isn't scum, (and GL is probably not scum...?), we've a...problem where any of the possible solves are all inherently based on WIFOM plays from scum.

Shirou · Post Post #3237 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:14 am

if we count on us miseliminating me today, we've 2 eliminations left.

so, how do we plan to bet on it? doing both of morph/NQ believing that there needs to be at least one scum there?

morph the cat · Post Post #3238 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:14 am

I think the wifom pandora's box is going to be wide open when today ends.

Enchant · Post Post #3239 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:15 am

We have three futures.

Shirou is fake Cop.
NumberQ is fake Cop.
Both legit, then mafia team are exactly Morph+Guilty.

... And that's all.

Shirou · Post Post #3240 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:16 am

In post 3238, morph the cat wrote:I think the wifom pandora's box is going to be wide open when today ends.

kkkkkk, maybe.

Shirou · Post Post #3241 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:16 am

In post 3239, Enchant wrote:We have three futures.

Shirou is fake Cop.
NumberQ is fake Cop.
Both legit, then mafia team are exactly Morph+Guilty.

... And that's all.

I'm really beginning to dislike your slot. But it's a shame since I liked you yesterday...

Enchant · Post Post #3242 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:17 am

In post 3241, Shirou wrote:
In post 3239, Enchant wrote:We have three futures.

Shirou is fake Cop.
NumberQ is fake Cop.
Both legit, then mafia team are exactly Morph+Guilty.

... And that's all.
I'm really beginning to dislike your slot. But it's a shame since I liked you yesterday...

Do you disagree with this reasoning.

morph the cat · Post Post #3243 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:19 am

In post 3239, Enchant wrote:We have three futures.

Shirou is fake Cop.
NumberQ is fake Cop.
Both legit, then mafia team are exactly Morph+Guilty.

... And that's all.

If you're correct, then there is a fake cop.

Of the two, Shirou is my pick.

There's something I want to do, but I haven't discussed it with neuterhalf, so I won't decide whether to do it until he's free to catch up.

Shirou · Post Post #3244 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:21 am

but hm

Enchant doesn't really give scum vibes in their interactions with me yesterday, so I suppose it's a bit hard to believe they are scum.

NQ was really eager to miseliminate me though yesterday before I got a result, I can see scum!NQ here.

p-edit: I think you aren't considering the possible WIFOM plays enough, just because you think it's a "galaxy brain" thing, when it's actually not. It's definitely a huge gamble and smart, but it wouldn't be anywhere near impossible...in fact I kinda had thought about trying to get a doc to confirm me if I rolled up scum here in pregame.

I think trying to just say "yeah these two people remaining in the pool so conveniently must be the scum team" is kinda pushing a potential scum agenda in this game, but at the same time I can see you just being town and jumping to the easiest answer as the only possible one.

Shirou · Post Post #3245 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:24 am

In post 3243, morph the cat wrote:Of the two, Shirou is my pick.

huh

me coming out with an inno and soft inno on both of my yesterday suspects didn't mellow you guys out at all?

I thought there was a small chance people could go "oh maybe shirou's actually town" considering how suboptimal my play right now would be as scum, but hmm, I guess I was just daydreaming kkkkkk

oh my, you all are so cold...

Enchant · Post Post #3246 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:25 am

In post 3244, Shirou wrote:but hm

Enchant doesn't really give scum vibes in their interactions with me yesterday, so I suppose it's a bit hard to believe they are scum.

NQ was really eager to miseliminate me though yesterday before I got a result, I can see scum!NQ here.

p-edit: I think you aren't considering the possible WIFOM plays enough, just because you think it's a "galaxy brain" thing, when it's actually not. It's definitely a huge gamble and smart, but it wouldn't be anywhere near impossible...in fact I kinda had thought about trying to get a doc to confirm me if I rolled up scum here in pregame.

I think trying to just say "yeah these two people remaining in the pool so conveniently must be the scum team" is kinda pushing a potential scum agenda in this game, but at the same time I can see you just being town and jumping to the easiest answer as the only possible one.

Fuck wine, Fua is town.

If Fua is not town, then fuck this game and GG.

So i throwing this future out as impossible.

We have three futures.

All.

Shirou · Post Post #3247 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:27 am

well

I would be fine with a [Shirou > NQ > Morph] elimination chain. It would kinda bet on fua being town but mechanically wise there's plenty of good reasons to believe they are just that: town.

I guess in most universes that would guarantee us at least one scum. Whether GL/Enchant should be or not added to the pool later I'll leave up to you guys.

I suppose if everyone still scum reads me the same way as yesterday, we should just proceed to opening the pandora box of my town flip after the massclaim.

Shirou · Post Post #3248 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:28 am

In post 3246, Enchant wrote:Fuck wine, Fua is town.

If Fua is not town, then fuck this game and GG.

So i throwing this future out as impossible.

We have three futures.

All.

I guess that's the easy answer

not that it's bad just because it's easy, it would win most games. Dunno if it wins or loses here, mathematically speaking it likely wins, but...welp, dunno. I'm not a diviner.

morph the cat · Post Post #3249 (ISO) » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:28 am

In post 3243, morph the cat wrote:There's something I want to do, but I haven't discussed it with neuterhalf, so I won't decide whether to do it until he's free to catch up.

That didn't take long.

I'll leave it up for discussion for a bit, but we intend to claim and then accept being miselimmed.

The sooner town addresses the wifom cop situation the better, and I consider this approach to be a quick way to make that evaluation happen.