Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

though they should not claim nights, to be clear

[Enchant]

Don't help mafia with claims.

[GuiltyLion]

I haven't posted anything mafia wouldn't already know

mafia is still more informed than town here, they know the exact number of cops/docs

[Enchant]

What if they are dumb and can't count

[GuiltyLion]

I think the only thing mafia currently wouldn't know is who is the doc and who is the cop if Meg/Ceph are both town and there's an unclaimed doc/cop remaining. and the nights obviously

[Shirou]

actually I hadn't thought about mech too much today huh

GL is kinda right, we probably should have Meg/Ceph claiming...but what about doing so tomorrow?

GL is a claimed N5 doctor along with Morph, that guarantees if there's a cop in Meg/Ceph, they'll have night protection.

Even if we confirm at the moment that there is 1 townie in Shirou/NQ, it doesn't mean anything since most likely I would be the elimination anyway and flip town.

Spoiler:

sigh, GL is theoretically likely town from the gamble as I said, but damn it really feels like he's pushing scum agenda...
knowing today who's the cop in Meg/Ceph now that it's likely they may have no protection, would be literally informing scum of the best NK on the likely confirmed townies (as I said I don't believe much in NQ/Ceph, so even if NQ is scum I think Ceph may be just town)

[Shirou]

Okay let me think about this mech stuff, because I hadn't before...

I guess a sign of how little thought I'm putting in this game huh, for me to not think about mech stuff, weird.

[GuiltyLion]

sigh, GL is theoretically likely town from the gamble as I said, but damn it really feels like he's pushing scum agenda...
knowing today who's the cop in Meg/Ceph now that it's likely they may have no protection, would be literally informing scum of the best NK on the likely confirmed townies (as I said I don't believe much in NQ/Ceph, so even if NQ is scum I think Ceph may be just town)

bro I'm literally trying to work through the info to give us the best chance of narrowing the POE today, and all I said was it's worth considering claiming, I am not insisting that they claim if they choose not to, just providing as much mech thoughts as I can at the moment

given that you and nQ are my two main suspects, if one of you is town and doc claims help us instead decide to lim in the doc pool, how is that scum agenda? like if I were scum I just take a freebie ML on you, no?

again, if (highly unlikely but technically possible) Ceph/Meg are both docs and the team is in {morph/enchant/GL} then we can literally auto by claiming, how would that benefit scum!me to point that out in that world?

[GuiltyLion]

and there's lines we could play, like if Ceph is doc and Meg is cop, then it could make sense to lim nQ instead of you, so that if nQ is town we either have a cop or a conftown alive all the way to D6

and the inverse scenario if Meg is doc and Ceph is cop, we lim you and if you are town then we similarly guarantee either a cop or a conftown

(all this assuming the worst case scenario where today's lim is a miselimination)

claiming is not strictly pro-scum here other than in the most limited view where in the single doc single cop world they might be able to kill the cop tonight. but if we can narrow the POE enough even that might not be a net loss, there will be other conftowns that are cleared by virtue of every cop claiming an inno

and again I haven't thought through this in the fullest detail, so I'm not taking a hard stance re:claiming, but just trying to tease at the info we have and think through whether we have ways to leverage it. mafia still have the information advantage here, even more so if both Ceph/Meg are town and the same role

[GuiltyLion]

knowing today who's the cop in Meg/Ceph now

I have been burned by false alarms on these tells before, so I'm not 100%, but this could potentially be a slip of knowledge that there's exactly one cop between them

[Shirou]

Cephrir - Unclaimed
MegAzumarill - Unclaimed
Enchant - N2 Doctor
implosion - N3 Cop
imaginality - N2 Doctor
numberQ - N1 Cop
redtea - Scum
morph the cat - N5 Doctor
Tejate Raichu - N3 Doctor
fua - N3 Cop
GuiltyLion - N5 Doctor
Shirou - N3 Cop
Amazonian Legends - N2 Doctor

That's 6 claimed doctors and 4 claimed cops.

However, out of that pool, there's only 2 (100% confirmed) doctors, and 1 (100% confirmed) cop.

However if we assume some consensus stuff as:
> Enchant is town
> Fua is town
and also the tidbit of:
>Ceph is town

That would mean, there's 4 confirmed doctors and 2 confirmed cops, which makes the remaining pool of suspects [GuiltyLion, Morph] in the doctors, and [Shirou, NQ] in the cops.

There's three possibilities/scenarios based on that:

A) If both Meg/Ceph are doctors, it means as long as both Enchant and Fua is town, the scum team

MUST

be GuiltyLion/Morph. We would have 8 claimed doctors and 4 claimed cop after all, and the

minimum

amount of a given role is 4, therefore all the cops claims would be guaranteed to be town. We would confirm a 6 doctors : 4 cops setup.

B) If both Meg/Ceph are cops, it means as long as both Enchant and Fua is town, the scum team

MUST

be a random combination of [Shirou/NQ/Morph/GL]. We would have 6 claimed doctors and 6 claimed cops, and unless the scum team is exactly Shirou/NQ, there's at least one scum in Morph/GL.

C) If there's one cop and one doctor in Meg/Ceph, we would have 7 claimed doctors and 5 claimed cops. At least one of the doctors would be confirmed to be lying since there can only be a maximum of 6 of a given role, therefore one of [GuiltyLion/Morph] must be scum, although it could also be both.

Within the initial assumptions, GuiltyLion/Morph can only both be town in a universe where it's exactly Shirou/NQ and both Meg/Ceph are cops (scenario B), but even in that scenario it's completely plausible there's one scum there.


In both scenario A/C, there's a chance of either one or both in Shirou/NQ being town. In scenario B it's

guaranteed

for both me/NQ to be town.

[Shirou]

both me and NQ should know from our own povs if we're town, that scenario B

can't

be possible. Meg/Ceph can't be both cops, therefore for both of us, there's one guaranteed scum in GuiltyLion/Morph as long as the initial assumptions are correct.

[fua]

VOTE: GL

Not gonna lie, Shirou's argument is pretty compelling. GL's posting is giving me major bad vibes right now.

[numberQ]

Okay, here's what I was thinking at the end of the day yesterday that I didn't want to bring up until cop results came in.

fua is scum who successfully pulled off a no kill gambit N1 to give themselves conf!town status. It was their actions near the end of D3 that pinged me enough to go back and think about this. The Tejate/GL solve was strange, and in hindsight I think they were setting themselves up to clear their buddy. This of course implicates Tejate, though I've mostly focused on fua when I looked back at the thread overnight. The Tejate read is purely by association at this point, since he's the one fua inno'd. I was also expecting Shirou to investigate GL to help clear it up more, but oh well. I think the theory still stands even without that result. Actually, the implo kill also implies the other scum is

not

GL, otherwise I feel they would have killed Shirou. Hmm

VOTE: fua

anyway I skimmed some of the thread just to check cop claims, but now I'm going to go actually read it.

[Enchant]

DEGRADATION.

[Shirou]

However, there's an interesting tidbit here:

I believe both Morph and GL are skilled players. I find it rather...unlikely that they would do scenario A, where they basically are publicly guilted scum on massclaim. Although at the same time they would either way be in such a rough spot that claiming cop and clearing another player would be kinda suicide, the elimination pool would already be too tight.

However...even more interesting than that, would be scum!Guilty in that scenario beginning the mech talk, since theoretically they should be afraid of people realizing the potential of breaking the setup on massclaim? It would be a rather...risky play for no benefit since he would not even be fishing the potential cop inside Meg/Ceph, given in this scenario they would be both doctors and they should already have known that from the role distribution.

In my pov, and I believe in NQ's as well...this must be scenario B. Therefore, there's very very likely one cop, one doctor in side of Meg/Ceph, and scum knows that, and scum should *want* to know who's the cop there since the elimination pool is getting way too small for yet another cop check.

[GuiltyLion]

I think the only errors/disagreements I have with Shirou's above are:

Scenario A) would directly imply fua town (no longer an assumption) given his cop claim

Scenario B) is

technically

possible from your point of view if the team is nQ/Ceph exactly. Similarly for nQ if the team is exactly Shirou/Meg. But I agree with the general point, from your perspective it should be highly likely there is a scum in the claimed docs if you assume Ceph is town.

I think if we're in scenario C it's worth like, at least revisiting the scum!Enchant assumption, there is no hard evidence of him being town other than his day play and scum not killing fua on N2. I still TR Enchant but we'd have to be cognizant that he's not mechanically clear, your phrasing is a little assured. The overall point is not wrong though, and I think the way you laid it out makes me think the odds of scum!morph are notably higher than I had been previously assuming

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GL

Not gonna lie, Shirou's argument is pretty compelling. GL's posting is giving me major bad vibes right now.

can you like

talk to me instead of just saying "bad vibes"

if I were scum I wouldn't post any of this shit I'd just be tunneling Shirou

[Cephrir]

i see we're losing our absolute minds out here today.

[Shirou]

I'm confident.

This setup is a 5 doctors 5 cops one, and there's one scum in the doctors and one scum in the cops.

GuiltyLion play today doesn't make any real sense if he was scum here in scenario A. It would be A HUGE, GIGANTIC missplay to begin talking about the mech confirmations right now. I believe GL is better than that. And in scenario A (both Meg/Ceph are doctors), both GL and Morph needs to be scum when you assume the initial assumptions.

We're almost guaranteed on scenario B.

[Shirou]

scum isn't afraid of a massclaim because they have camouflaged themselves on a perfect 1 : 1 distribution between the possible roles, which makes it impossible to confirm with precision anyone being town or scum before flipping them.

It's actually the most viable play anyway. At least one of GL/Morph needs to be town, and the other one as long as our initial assumptions are correct, needs to be scum.

My bet is on GL town and Morph scum.

[fua]

Okay, here's what I was thinking at the end of the day yesterday that I didn't want to bring up until cop results came in.

fua is scum who successfully pulled off a no kill gambit N1 to give themselves conf!town status. It was their actions near the end of D3 that pinged me enough to go back and think about this. The Tejate/GL solve was strange, and in hindsight I think they were setting themselves up to clear their buddy. This of course implicates Tejate, though I've mostly focused on fua when I looked back at the thread overnight. The Tejate read is purely by association at this point, since he's the one fua inno'd. I was also expecting Shirou to investigate GL to help clear it up more, but oh well. I think the theory still stands even without that result. Actually, the implo kill also implies the other scum is

not

GL, otherwise I feel they would have killed Shirou. Hmm

VOTE: fua

anyway I skimmed some of the thread just to check cop claims, but now I'm going to go actually read it.

I wish I was that smart.

[Tejate Raichu]

Hoo boy, this is getting chaotic. I tried to stay up for the timer, but I ended up falling asleep.

Tejate is town. I didn't want to risk the invest on a cop when it was 50/50 that one could be nightkilled.

This is a load off my mind. I got to a townread on day 2, but the differences between his play here and in Newbie 2085 are pretty stark.

I'm kind of not the most consistent mafia player in the world.

Anyway, I think theres a pretty good chance at this point that the game isn't as easy as it currently appears, but there are certainly still non cleared players I'm suspicious of, so possibly I don't need to start thinking about that yet!

Agreed, let's think about that come day 5.

Shirou's posts today have not really improved my opinion of the slot. I don't think the argument of "if I was scum there's no way I would play this badly" makes much sense. I have indeed seen townies play in a way that is so suboptimal there is just a very low chance it's coming from scum, and I have actually TR'd people for that in the past. But context is required: you were playing in a way that was most certainly NOT suboptimal for scum before the whole wallpost thing on day 2. In fact, if you were actually scum defending redtea, you went about it in a sneaky way that wouldn't be noticed for a while. That's not "suboptimal" and I'm not TRing you for it.

VOTE: Shirou

[numberQ]

I agree that we're in scenario B here. Scum will ALWAYS claim in such a way that there's a 6:7 or 7:6 split between cops and docs, anything else is very suboptimal and it's not like that's some crazy mech epiphany that scum might not realize. With 6 claimed docs, 4 claimed cops, and redtea having never claimed - the remaining two slots are guaranteed to be claiming cop here.

[Shirou]

If GL/Morph believe in:

> Fua is town
> Enchant is town
> Ceph is *likely* town

You're kinda basically...outed scum to each other in your povs.

Scum knows the role distribution in advance, so they would know that claiming both the same role in a 5:5 setup would literally out them as scum in a massclaim.

Sure, you believe my scum game isn't beyond what's possible in my play here, but now that NSG slot is basically almost confirmed town, and that I've in the above showed that I know my mech, can we please believe that IN NO UNIVERSE EVER I LET BOTH ME AND MY PARTNER BE OUTED GUILTED SCUM in massclaim? I would already have lost the game tomorrow if that was the case anyway.

We're in scenario B, and as long as Fua/Enchant are town, and Ceph likely town:

Guiltylion, Morph MUST be scum for you.
Morph, GuiltyLion MUST be scum for you.

kkkkkkkkkk

Okay that was very funny. Didn't know there was a play here other than miseliminating me.