Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[MegAzumarill]

I fail to find ATP AI either way because I personally use it as both alignments

[Enchant]

There's no reason to not claim.

Mafia can as well deduce remaining two claims.

[Enchant]

THERE'S 0,01 POSSIBILITY MOD MADE MISTAKE AND PLACED CULT LEADER INSTEAD OF MAFIA.

Paranoia issues.

[Shirou]

There's no reason to not claim.

Mafia can as well deduce remaining two claims.

What?

Of course there's a reason for Meg/Ceph to not claim today.

They can be either cop/cop or doctor/cop (unlikely to ever be doctor/doctor), scum doesn't know who's the cop and who's the doctor at least in the second scenario.

and not sure if this is what you're talking about, but even if the are on the scenario of cop/cop, they shouldn't ever claim nights.

claiming today isn't a good idea when if it's doc/cop, it outs to scum who's the one they should NK. In N5 we've two claimed doctors, they either protect them or get outed as scum. It's better to leave Meg/Ceph claiming for tomorrow.

Of that I'm almost 100% sure at least.

[Shirou]

miseliminating fua right now would be how we lose the game basically. I feel we're close to a semi-auto depending on Meg/Ceph roles and their nights, but I need to think more so for now I'll shut up for a bit.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... robability

also...what's up with this?

How it's bad to appeal to people do a course of actions assuming the most probable scenario(s)???

You may as well stop believing in math entirely if you think that's bad...?

[Shirou]

THERE'S 0,01 POSSIBILITY MOD MADE MISTAKE AND PLACED CULT LEADER INSTEAD OF MAFIA.

Paranoia issues.

I don't think you understand what we've been discussing about and I recommend a re:read.

Don't confuse my stance with NQ's.

I think fua is still possible scum but wouldn't vote them unless they are confirmed, because from what I'm seeing, whether fua is truly town or not will eventually be apparent.

What I'm trying to discuss is a way to put this game as close to auto solve as possible, and one of the main considerations, is that fua IS town for that.

[GuiltyLion]

is it weird that I'm kinda waffling on Shirou at the moment, I feel like his play today has been relatively pure

I am still at work and haven't done any deep thinking but I feel like a morph/nQ team makes a lot of sense? I dunno if nQ's fua push is genuine paranoia or scum trying to widen the endgame limpool, that's what I need to sit with and reflect on

[Shirou]

Mhm. Okay I've made things simpler:

We no longer need to assume either Enchant being town or Ceph being town. We really just assume Fua is town here and therefore if this fails at any point at the last days, fua is outed scum. I don't really think they are scum atm. I'm starting to see other more plausible teams.

I'm gonna double check a bit more before posting just to not need to redact yet again. The logic is still more or less the same of the post before, but I'm not necessarily assuming anything other than fua is town.

With this plan, as long as fua is town, I suppose we may be in auto-win as town depending on role distribution on Meg/Ceph.

[Shirou]

Therefore if fua is town, clap clap clap I guess? Decent chances we've just won I would say.

[Shirou]

If both Meg/Ceph are cop *and* fua is scum, it would be game over for us. But uh, we wouldn't eliminate fua either way with how things were going.

[fua]

Therefore if fua is town, clap clap clap I guess? Decent chances we've just won I would say.

Correct.

[Shirou]

Shirou's Mech Wall

okay let's go step by step and if someone has any doubts they quote the specific point, it's gonna be easy discuss it like that and make everyone understand it I suppose. Let's start with the basic of the basic. I'm gonna call each "point" a "bullet" for dangaronpa flavor and giggles.

Bullet 1: Eliminations remaining.

Spoiler:

We've 9 players alive, and 2 scum remain. 7:2 parity.

Even if we miseliminate every day/scum night kills successfully everyday:

> Day 4: 9 alive, 2 scum remains. 7:2, two townies die.
> Day 5: 7 alive, 2 scum remains. 5:2, two townies die again.
> Day 6: 5 alive, 2 scum remains. 3:2, last day to get scum. However if we get one scum in the third elimination:
> Day 7: 3 alive, 1 scum remains. Last day again.

It's obvious but just to get it out there if someone didn't calculate it yet, we've 3 eliminations remaining, and if in those three first eliminations we get one scum right, we get a fourth elimination.

Bullet 2: Assumptions for this plan to work.

Spoiler:

1) Fua is town.
2) One of Meg/Ceph are town.

One of Meg/Ceph must be town because there's two scum remainings, and no matter if you think that the team may be Meg/Me, Ceph/NQ, or Shirou/NQ, at least one of [Meg/Ceph] is ALWAYS town here, if not both.

Enchant doesn't need to be assumed to be town, you're free to do so though if you want since he's left for last in a way that if he's town, he will always remain alive as long as fua is town (except if he's NK'd I guess).

Bullet 3: Setup possibilities.

Spoiler:

We've 6 doctors claimed, and 4 cops claimed. Meg/Ceph are still unclaimed. There's the following scenarios here:

A) If they are

both doctors

. We would be on 8 doctors claimed, and 4 cops claimed. There's a minimum of 4 of a given role in any roll of this setup, so all cop claims would be confirmed town and we would eliminate the unconfirmed doctors [GuiltyLion, Morph, Enchant] for a guaranteed town win.

B) They are

both cops

, We would be on 6 doctors claimed, and 6 cops claimed. Impossible to tell initially if scum is both in the doctors or cop, or if there's one scum on each claimed role, however it also means we have 2 extra cop shots, which together with the N5 doctors claims, guarantees we get at least one more cop result. We will use that to win in this scenario, explanations in another bullet.

C) They are cop/doc or doc/cop. We would be on 7 doctors claimed, and 5 cops claimed. Guaranteed that at least one doctor is lying, and there's only 3 unconfirmed doctors, so guaranteed for us to get at least one other scum with the number of eliminations we've. We can also still solve the cop pool potential scum (although it's possible to be no scum in the cops in this scenario) with the explanations of another bullet point.

Bullet 4: What is my recommended play for today and tomorrow.

Spoiler:

Today, we eliminate one in the pool of Morph/GL. Tomorrow we eliminate one in the pool of Shirou/NQ most likely.

Why and how?

In both previously mentioned scenario A and C, it's either confirmed both me and NQ are town, or that there's at least one townie on us. Even in scenario B, there's no guarantee whatsoever that there's scum in the cop pool. However, in all scenarios except scenario B (Meg/Ceph as cop/cop), there's a

guarantee

of scum in the remaining doctor pool.

Therefore, since scenario B is the unique one where there's no guaranteed scum in [Morph, GuiltyLion] (there's also Enchant in the pool, but removed due to popular demand I guess?), we would direct today the potential cops in Meg/Ceph to inversely check on who checked them. Basically:

If Ceph is a cop, he check me tonight.
If Meg is a cop, they check NQ tonight.

They are most likely the nightkills as well, therefore:

If Ceph is a doctor, he protects Meg tonight.
If Meg is a doctor, they protect Ceph tonight.

If we're in scenario B where there's no guarantee of scum in doctors, we would still get a guaranteed cop check. If we're in scenario C and only one of them is a cop, even if they were a N5 cop, it's likely that we get the cop check anyway like this, since we already have claimed N5 doctors, and there's a good chance that the doctor in Ceph/Meg would be N4 given that implo was nightkilled on N3 (he was the obvious nightkill), and we know there was no other N1 doctors. Even if the doctor in Ceph/Meg is N5 as well, scum would still need to gamble a 50/50 on discovering who is the cop in that scenario. We would have AT LEAST 50% chance of getting the cop check either way.

As long as there's only one N5 doctor alive tomorrow, we can have Meg/Ceph claim tomorrow if no results tonight, and leash the remaining claimed N5 doctor to whoever of them claims N5 cop (if any). If that target is nightkilled, the claimed N5 doctor would also be outed scum.

If they get an inno on one of Shirou/NQ, we eliminate the remaining one to completely confirm the cops pool tomorrow. If they get a guilty, you know the gist.

Bullet 5: Differences on what to do between scenario A, B and C.

Spoiler:

No matter if we're in scenario A, B or C, what we do today/tonight is basically the same. The difference is that:

A) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph both claim/flip doctor (unlikely), we continue eliminating in the doctors pool since all cop claims would be mechanically confirmed town (there would only be 4 cop claims in that scenario, remember, the minimum). This would give us the easiest auto-win.

B) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph both claim/flip cop, if there's a result from N4, we either eliminate the guilty on Shirou/NQ, or eliminate the one that didn't get the inno to confirm the cop pool. If there's no result from N4, it means there'll be at least one N5 cop alive among them, and we leash the remaining N5 doctor to them. We still eliminate one on Shirou/NQ in D5 and investigate the remaining one. If the cop dies, the doctor is confirmed scum. A "cop result" either way.

C) If tomorrow Meg/Ceph claim/flip either doctor/cop or cop/doctor, likewise, if there's a result from N4, we eliminate the guilty on Shirou/NQ or eliminate the one that didn't get the inno to confirm the cop pool. If there's no result from N4, it either means the cop died or there's a remaining N5 cop alive among them again, and we also leash the remaining N5 doctor to them. They investigate either Enchant or the remaining N5 doctor. We still eliminate on one of Shirou/NQ on D5. If the eliminated cop on D5 flips scum, in this scenario all the other cops are confirmed town and you just destroy the remaining doctor pool. If the eliminated cop on D5 flips town, we follow the result from the N5 cop and eliminate the remaining unconfirmed doctor. If said unconfirmed doctor flips town, the remaining one alive of Shirou/NQ would be scum.

Therefore we're guaranteed to get one scum right doing this chain no matter what universe we're in as long as fua is town. However, now remains to explain why it gets to an auto after one more scum elimination in those scenarios (except scenario A, that's a straight up obvious mech town-win in D5).

Bullet 6: How the scenarios/this chain develops to an auto win or semi auto-win

Spoiler:

Okay, so we know that in scenario A the reason it's an auto win is obvious in D5 (it leaves only 2 unconfirmed players alive and we would still have 2 eliminations left).

Let's explain why it's also a town win in scenario B and C as long as fua is town, and I'll assume we get the worst luck possible in those scenarios. If things run better than expected, we may even be able to confirm if fua is truly town or not just to be sure!

Scenario B:

So we're in D5, one of Meg/Ceph died, but the remaining one claims cop anyway (since both are cops in this scenario). Let's assume the worst luck possible: we eliminated Morph, they flipped town, and the remaining cop of Meg/Ceph is a N5 one, so we've no result.

We leash GuiltyLion in this scenario to protecting the remaining cop of Meg/Ceph, and we eliminate on Shirou/NQ inversely based on who is alive. If Meg is alive, you eliminate me and leash Meg to investigate NQ. If Ceph is alive, you eliminate NQ and leash Ceph on me.

If the cop dies, GuiltyLion is confirmed scum, and we've 1 elimination left for [Shirou or NQ, Enchant]. It's obvious that the elimination would be whoever of Shirou/NQ remains, so unhappily yes, we would lose in that scenario to scum!Enchant, but this is considering the WORST LUCK possible. If we don't get the worst luck, in most cases we also can ensure a win even against a potential scum!Enchant. For example, if the first eliminated N5 doctor is scum, or if our surviving cop in Meg/Ceph is N4. In most cases here, even a scum!Enchant loses.

If the cop survives, we get the cop check in the remaining one of Shirou/NQ, and the game gets in auto since every slot except [Enchant/Surviving N5 Doctor] would be confirmed, and we would still have exactly 2 eliminations to confirm everyone. Scum cannot possibly win here as long as again, fua is town.

Scenario C

: So we're in D5. One of Meg/Ceph is doctor, and the other one cop. This can end up playing in three possibilities:

1) The doctor gets NK'd and the cop is left alive (good for us! they either have a result already or we leash the N5 doctor to them in N5, we're guaranteed either an inno or guilty again)
2) The cop gets NK'd, and the doctor is alive (the worst luck possible, but there's still salvation as I'll show)
3) The doctor saves the cop and there's no nightkill in Ceph/Meg. (best possible course of action for us, we leash the N5 doctor to the remaining cop if they already don't have a result, and again guaranteed either an inno or guilty)

Okay, let's assume WORST LUCK again, scum lucks out in the 50/50, targets the cop, and also gets lucky that the doctor in Meg/Ceph is N5 or something. We end up with the cop died and the doctor alive on Meg/Ceph. Let's see what we can do:

We would be in a 7 doctors claimed, 5 cops claimed scenario here, so therefore there's a

guaranteed

scum in the doctors, and one of Shirou/NQ is guaranteed town. If we still had the cop check, we would check inversely like the scenarios before on Shirou/NQ, but since here scum lucked out, we don't have an extra cop check to guarantee we get the one in Shirou/NQ right. Assuming worst luck again, let's also assume in D4 we also eliminated Morph and they flipped town. We've 2 eliminations left (and get as explained before, one extra when we get scum).

One of [Enchant/GuiltyLion] is guaranteed scum.

One of [Shirou/NQ] is guaranteed town.

We eliminate in the doctors until there's a scum flip, and then you choose in Shirou/NQ. As long as Enchant is town, GL (or Morph if we did GL on D4), NEEDS to flip scum here first, so don't worry scum!me isn't manipulating here and still would have no chance of winning as long as Enchant isn't my partner, since the chain would be [ GL or Morph > Shirou > NQ].

Again...on worst luck scenarios we kinda lose to scum!Enchant, but once again as long as it's not the worst luck hypothetical, we can also check Enchant here.

For example if our cop in Meg/Ceph survives here, if they are N4 they claim their result and then we either eliminate the guilted one in Shirou/NQ, or the unconfirmed one in case of an inno result. If we get a guilty, it confirms every other cop as town since there would only be 4 remaining cop claims, and we would still have 3 eliminations left to kill all of the uncofirmed [GL or Morph, Enchant]. In fact, we would have a SURPLUS of one elimination.

If we get an inno, we can eliminate the remaining unconfirmed one in Shirou/NQ. Even if it flips town, it would still confirm all the cops since the scum team can't be Shirou/Ceph or Meg/NumberQ. We would still have 2 eliminations left to kill [GL or Morph, Enchant], leaving 0 unconfirmed slots in the game. Scum again cannot possibly win as long as fua is town.

Bullet 7: What's the difference between doing this and just doing whatever?

Spoiler:

We've 3 eliminations, and again, get one extra if we get one scum. Therefore as long as the entire scum team is in [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph]. Yeah, we can do any chain of eliminations inside that and it's a town win already.

However you lose to Shirou/Meg, NQ/Ceph, and a potential scum!Enchant. If you try to check any of Meg/Ceph/Enchant without this plan, you also can lose to one of [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph].

What I'm proposing gives exact 0 chances for any scum in [Shirou, NQ, GL, Morph] to win, but also gives 0 chances for scum!Meg or scum!Ceph to win from a 3rd person pov's. It also gives us very likely chance to catch scum!Enchant if we're ever wrong there.

I didn't explain it as well since no one believes in it and it's not guaranteed to happen, but also if we get a bit ~lucky~ on what Meg/Ceph are and what happens at night, we can also confirm fua's alignment as well.

There's kinda...no actual cons to this. No real risk. Only benefits.

The best argument you could do for this to be a ~scum plan~ for me, would be that I may be scum trying to get lucky in a 1v1 with Enchant in a single scenario of the above, but...hm, come on, I'm not winning a 1v1 against Enchant here ever, I would lose anyway, and I would basically need dumb luck for that scenario to even happen...

[Shirou]

uh...that tired me out

but hm, tl;dr is even if we do random ass elimination chains on [Shirou, NQ, Morph, GL], I guess we can win as long as Meg/Ceph/Enchant are all town, but you can't EVER deviate of [Shirou, NQ, Morph, GL] later to try to check one of Meg/Ceph/Enchant, if for example NQ flips scum or from a third person pov, I flip scum. We also always lose against a potential scum!Enchant here while in most scenarios we win against even a scum!Enchant with my plan/chains.

If we get ~lucky~, we also even double check fua's alignment.

It's kinda the optimal stuff to do but /shrug

sometimes people just like to do things the easier way and I'm gonna try to not complain too much if it's the case here even though my fingers hurt after typing so much...

[Shirou]

I...don't think I want to do GL because I believe he's town for game reasons now, so I think the likely scum in [GL, Morph, Enchant] is just Morph.

VOTE: Morph

/shrug

if this is right, I wasn't that far off in D1 huh...

[Shirou]

Sorry if there's any typos in the wall, I got exhausted and couldn't double check for typos. You can quote any potential typos and I can correct if it's a typo or not I guess.

[Shirou]

to be honest I'm so lazy in this game that even though I figured out the ~optimal~ way to go about this game, I kinda feel like maybe we should just do a screw-maths moment and just turbo eliminate [Shirou, Morph, GL, NQ], and in my humble opinion it should be [Morph > Shirou or NQ > GL], but I guess I can accept being first due to...POPULAR DEMAND HAHAHAHAHA

[Shirou]

okay I've a bad sense of humor I know

[Shirou]

If either one of Morph/GL is scum, none of Meg or Ceph can be scum as well, so the unique thing we would be missing in that scenario is our assurance against Enchant, and maybe against fua.

That's all I suppose...there's nothing left of meta to discuss I think...

If we don't do the ~plan~, I believe cops in Meg/Ceph should check for Enchant. It's kinda a half-assed way of checking for Enchant but hey...it can kinda just work you know...

there's no point in cop checking any of [Morph, GL, Shirou, NQ] if we don't do the plan I believe. We've enough eliminations so that no scum there can ever win.

[Shirou]

nothing left of meta to discuss I think...

nothing left of mech to discuss*

[numberQ]

Well it was a mistake to check back in before bed. I read about halfway through your 4th truth bullet before I realized I wasn't retaining the information.

idk, I still just feel like it's fua/Tejate. That's what my gut is telling me. Though admittedly my gut was way off in my last two town games. But the two before that it was way on!

I'll try and give your plan a reread tomorrow

[morph the cat]

We'll both probably be AFK until tomorrow evening. I might have time to catch up and post tomorrow morning.

[morph the cat]

We all quite talkative today. :/

I have some probably crazy thoughts about this gamestate. Neuterhalf won't be available/in shape to tell me how crazy they are until late tonight or tomorrow. I probably won't have much to say until then unless players post new stuff that I have thoughts about.

[Enchant]

While i looked in thread, i have nothing to really add, so not posting.

Also i was wrong, there's actually 4 futures.

One is, where both Shirou and Number are mafs. But for spme reason i didn't even remember that.


Idk if numbermaf would just suicide via trying Fua elim. Atleast I don't see point.

[MegAzumarill]

wanna send morph the most of everyone followed by shirou

[Cephrir]

I'm leaning more towards Shirou still. While morph has indeed not made me really think they were town at any point, Shirou's over the top defense of redtea feels worse right now.