Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[morph the cat]

Actually I think tejate moved pretty townward on day 2. then we got paranoid about what looked like a perspective slip mid-late day 3. The Tejate inno result puts that to bed.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm never voting fua either, so good luck with that

even if both Shirou/nQ are town?

[GuiltyLion]

like there's definitely egg on my face here if it's just Shirou/morph and this game is easy, but I feel given the relative lack of chaos today that's too easy

[morph the cat]

mastina called, something about confirmed town

[GuiltyLion]

fua is literally less confirmed than most of the players with inno results on them

again, nothing I have seen means we should absolutely rule out any possibility of intentional no kill on N1. fua had

already claimed cop

and was townread, it is likely that if there was an N1 doc, they would target them. and if there was no N1 doc, it provides an easy fakeclaim for scum, that's not even incriminating if one of them flips

[GuiltyLion]

like, if this were a traditional closed setup? sure, fua's basically conftown. but scum knew there were at least 4 docs if not more, no-killing is absolutely a considerable possibility, to confuse the information we have, and for the odds of 'confirming' themselves. I'm not saying it's definitely what happened here, but I don't like this notion of

betting the game

on fua town if we don't have to

[morph the cat]

I know mech is required to solve this game, but I'm never going to accept elimming a god tier townread over mech speculation.

[morph the cat]

So if you want to do that, go ahead and elim us today and we'll point and laugh in the dead thread.

[GuiltyLion]

fmpov, knowing my alignment, if Shirou/nQ are both town - and I think their play today feels somewhat town - this game gets very ugly. there's still decent odds they're not both town, in which case the paranoia is rendered meaningless, but it's absolutely worth considering the case where they are and thinking about how to use any remaining cop checks most effectively

"I'll be laughing at you from the dead thread" is some lame scum-mindset shit and you should know that.

[morph the cat]

That kind of bullshit from a null-scum-read gets nothing but a snort. Your sledging attempts are noted though.

[Shirou]

Hm....
So. What i think. (Yes i did read this wall and i stoled it shamelessly to explain with simple words).


We killing numberQ today. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Ceph and read next step.
If numberQ town, we killing Shirou next. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Meg and read next step.
If Shirou Town... Then game won, because team is exactly Guilty+Morph and we murderize them. GG ez.

We have enough firepower to bloodbath our way to victory. Yay!
As long as i won't end up on choping block (Well it's hard) and Fua is town (I absolutely sure), we are in chocolate.

...

no?

We need to necessarily start by killing one of the doctor claims today for the plan, who between NQ/Shirou is killed tomorrow depends on who is the cop or surviving one between Meg/Ceph.

You misunderstood the wall I believe. I talk about eliminating either me or NQ on

Day 5

.

I don't want to eliminate GL at all though...

[MegAzumarill]

Actually I think tejate moved pretty townward on day 2. then we got paranoid about what looked like a perspective slip mid-late day 3. The Tejate inno result puts that to bed.

Shirou's willingness to die pings me as trying to look good as scum but I am not sure.
Uncertainty on the slot in general makes me want to just send it.
Morph is looking townier here then before but then why the style change?

[Shirou]

If we've a bit of luck we don't need to check fua at all with the plan, this is kind of what I was talking about

As long as we don't get the worst luck possible, we'll end up realizing by mech that fua is scum, *especially* if this is a cop/doc game and therefore a 5:5 setup. I'll admit that it's gonna be a bit harder to check fua if Meg/Ceph are cop/cop, but I don't think directly cop checking fua is a very good idea...

At the very least, in most scenarios, we at least would get a 1v1 between fua and Enchant with my plan if it's scum!fua/town!Enchant. It would be guaranteed to be at least funny and eye-opening.

But eh, honestly it's mostly paranoia for me, I don't think there's good chances of fua being scum here at all atm, it's just...I'm always rightfully paranoid in my opinion? If it's between blindly trusting fua/Enchant, and doing something that can gives us a bit leverage in the worst case scenario, I believe the latter is better if there's no inherent risk to it.

[MegAzumarill]

quote accidental

[GuiltyLion]

Morph is looking townier here then before but then why the style change?

how is morph looking townie? All they've done is tried to insist fua is mechanically conftown (when they're not), and then snarked at me for daring to re-evaluate on Shirou/nQ, all the while throwing up a bunch of AtE about how demoralized they are and how they'll laugh at town from the dead thread. It feels very much like agenda driven play, regardless of fua's alignment, I don't see any indicators of town trying to solve in what they're doing

[MegAzumarill]

Vibes

[Shirou]

If we don't do ~the plan~, I believe the cop(s) in Meg/Ceph should target Enchant or GL. That way in the last day if it comes to that, fua would be technically confirmed scum for either GL or Enchant.

I believe checking GL may be the best even if I think he's town, because Enchant and fua are both very town read and town reach each other. It would be an interesting fight if it ever comes to that kkkk

I don't think in GL vs fua, it's likely that a hypothetical scum!fua loses in most case scenarios.

[MegAzumarill]

Its just the thought of them flipping town feels really likely and I don't think this is their play as scum.
I'm conflicted atp

[GuiltyLion]

Enchant would be like the worst possible target IMO, he's just town

cops in this game need to stop checking my damn townreads and either check me or check my scumreads

[Shirou]

but again eh, I think we're focusing a bit too much on scum!fua right now and I don't think it's worth directing cops there or thinking about voting them.

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

depending on the answers, it may make sense to eliminate me first here.

[GuiltyLion]

like again, part of the main reason I'm even re-evaluating on fua at all is because they claimed to check Tejate instead of Shirou who would have been infinitely more useful to resolve prior to lim today

[Shirou]

Enchant would be like the worst possible target IMO, he's just town

cops in this game need to stop checking my damn townreads and either check me or check my scumreads

so check you I guess. I thought maybe you would get mad at me for suggesting ~again~ a cop check on you.

But like, if you've paranoia about scum!fua, checking you would guarantee that at the very least this would get to a Enchant vs Fua fight, where you or anyone else could rethink their thoughts, since it's two slots that people are betting the game on right now, and we would be shown to be wrong on one of them.

PS: That is, if we don't do the plan, if we do the plan the cop checks would be on me/NQ inversely based on who checked the cop. So Ceph on me and Meg on NQ I guess.

[Shirou]

@Ceph/Meg how interested in listening to my mech plan are you right now?

and also spicy question, if I was the elimination today and flipped town, would you let me direct your hypothetical cop targets tonight?

depending on the answers, it may make sense to eliminate me first here.

this is important so please reply.

[fua]

Hm....
So. What i think. (Yes i did read this wall and i stoled it shamelessly to explain with simple words).


We killing numberQ today. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Ceph and read next step.
If numberQ town, we killing Shirou next. If this is mafia, then okay, revaluate... If Town, then we locktown Meg and read next step.
If Shirou Town... Then game won, because team is exactly Guilty+Morph and we murderize them. GG ez.

We have enough firepower to bloodbath our way to victory. Yay!
As long as i won't end up on choping block (Well it's hard) and Fua is town (I absolutely sure), we are in chocolate.

I completely agree with this.

[GuiltyLion]

why would I be mad at a suggestion to check me, I've been asking for that since D2. I think it would be really useful to take me out of the suspect pool and make people more likely to actually listen to me and how I'm seeing the game