Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 4.02

Shirou (2):

Tejate Raichu, Cephrir

fua (1):

numberQ

numberQ (1):

fua

morph the cat (1):

Enchant

Not Voting (4):

GuiltyLion, morph the cat, MegAzumarill, Shirou

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 4 is February 18 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-18 11:00:00)

[Cephrir]

I think having me heal meg makes perfect sense. I'm less sure that letting shirou out of the like so I can check him makes sense; in particular I am not sure why he merits this treatment over GL or morph

[Shirou]

I think having me heal meg makes perfect sense. I'm less sure that letting shirou out of the like so I can check him makes sense; in particular I am not sure why he merits this treatment over GL or morph

because if you/meg are cop/doc or doc/cop, we would be in 7:5 on claims and therefore any guilty on NQ/me would confirm all other cops.

I had kinda forgot this overnight until you mentioned it, I was kinda secretly wondering why I had insisted on me/NQ being checked, but it was derp, forget what I said to Meg before, that's why my past-me had leashed the docs on the cops huh. That's why it's better to check on us than GL/Morph from an objective neutral pov.

If we get to a 7:5 scenario, a guilty in one of the cops means all others are confirmed town. If you're cop/cop and we'll be in 6:6 on claims...it actually doesn't matter that much to be honest I think. Unless I forgot again something about this specific scenario.

If you're cop/cop and therefore we will be in 6:6 on claims tomorrow , killing me today/right now isn't very relevant in the grand scheme of things tbh. The reason we do doctors today is kinda more strictly because you/Meg can be cop/doc or doc/cop and therefore if NQ for example is scum, (or in your pov, I'm scum), all other cops get to be confirmed town, therefore risking miseliminating in me/NQ when one can potentially clear the other in this scenario, would be suboptimal. We may end up wasting one elimination.

[Shirou]

Therefore knowing I'm town, if Ceph agreed to cop me but you for example Meg, cop checked the one in [GL, Morph] that is least likely to be scum (which in my opinion is by far GL). It may not be a bad idea.

Of course however, from a complete neutral PoV, this course of actions could give an advantage to a Shirou/Meg scum team, but since both me and you know this isn't possible, we could do it if that's what you are already thinking anyway.

This can also backfire of course if it's a 6 cops : 4 doctors setup, and GL/Morph is the scum team. In that scenario confirming NQ is town is the best scenario.

However again, if I'm not being completely neutral, I think GL is town therefore an inno on one of us would help much more than a hypothetical guilty on Morph or NQ.

Eliminating Morph, Ceph checking me, Meg checking GL (aka the least likely to be scum in [Morph, GL] from most people views?), is indeed a good idea.

However, you need to assume a not complete neutral stance there that I'm not likely scum/GL isn't likely scum for example.

This was all derp

This is truly okay if Meg/Ceph are cop/cop but if it's doc/cop or cop/doc, you want to strictly check/clear the cops looking for a possible guilty/scum flip, since it would confirm the others.

So like, if Meg/Ceph are cop/doc or doc/cop, NQ being scum would clear me, and hypothetically me being scum would clear NQ.

[Shirou]

sigh

I had forgot that so I was secretly wondering if there wasn't an equally optimal path that begins with my miselimination, and I was getting the answer "yeah, kinda", which I found weird since yesterday I had concluded that my slot shouldn't die today for the most optimal mech, but unhappily now I was reminded of why I decided I should try to remain alive for today. My miselimination may be completely unnecessary/a waste depending on Meg/Ceph claims and what NQ flips/what result the cop gets on him huh

back to this I guess

VOTE: Morph

[Tejate Raichu]

I do kind of agree that we're at a point where checking Shirou is pretty useless. If there was any time to check him, it was night 2 or night 3, but right now it would be a waste. Shirou is now a slot that will probably not live to endgame by necessity.

Regarding GL's posts today, I find them interesting since I have been thinking about a night kill gambit for a long time. Essentially since the start of day 2. I was ready to write off fua's check as wrongtowning because of their sudden last minute "solve", but it isn't impossible that they manufactured a reason to check me over Shirou. Granted, I myself wasn't sure how valuable a Shirou check would be.

I still think eliminating fua today would be wrong and just poor play, but I'm not prepared to bet the farm on them being town personally.

I know it's a lot of just echoing various sentiments, but I feel like it might be interesting enough just by virtue of coming from the person fua is clearing.

[Tejate Raichu]

Oh, and

UNVOTE:

I'll consider our options outside of Shirou a bit.

[Shirou]

But there's something positive about the time I wasted thinking about my possible miselimination chain I guess. If you're about to hammer me, I already asked for this but once again, please allow me to just post the mech stuff to do in that scenario considering my town flip.

Outside of that scenario where we're gonna be in 7:5 on claims tomorrow and NQ is scum, me dying today isn't that bad at all I guess, mech-wise.

p-edit: hello tejate, there's a mathematical reason to check me/NQ in case we're gonna be in 7:5.

[Tejate Raichu]

Elaborate, because I think an nQ check would be a lot more valuable.

[Shirou]

I'll give to you though that investigating me/NQ or one of the doctors has almost no difference if we adjust the entire chains to that in a 6:6 scenario.

Unhappily...we can't know if Meg/Ceph are both cops or one doc/one cop without lowering our odds of having at least one cop alive in either scenario.

[Cephrir]

I'm interested in what fua and morph think of all this mech shit. It makes my head hurt.

[Cephrir]

I tend to think the idea that scum would walk into a 7/5 for no reason is kind of a pipe dream

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm getting the feeling that this setup might lean towards being town favored with just goons... is there somewhere you can see winrates on common setups?

[Shirou]

Elaborate, because I think an nQ check would be a lot more valuable.

If Ceph/Meg claims cop/doc, or doc/cop, we'll have 7 claimed doctors and 5 claimed cops.

There's at minimum 4 cops. Therefore if we find a scum in that scenario within the cops pool, all others are guaranteed town.

If you think I'm scum, if we're in that scenario, a check on me would clear automatically clear both NQ and fua slot.

If NQ is scum, and again we're in this 7:5 scenario, it would clear both me and fua slot.

It doesn't matter if you think I'm scum or not, a guilty on me in that scenario is the same thing as an inno on NQ, and vice-versa.

However as I said, if Meg/Ceph are both cops, checking me or NQ doesn't give us much in the grand picture of things.

[Tejate Raichu]

Hmmm... I suppose that's true, actually.

[Shirou]

I tend to think the idea that scum would walk into a 7/5 for no reason is kind of a pipe dream

I also kinda do believe they would want to balance the claims but...right now, depending on the team, it's not as bad as it sounds to have the info "one of the doctors claim is a lie" confirmed.

[Tejate Raichu]

In this setup, since it is randomized, mafia always have a claim space of 2 cop slots, 2 doctor slots, or 1 cop and 1 doc. So they have a space for 2 slots overall. And then one becomes the odd one out with either cops or docs having a confirmed scum in it. Now that I'm really thinking about it, maybe it's not as valuable as I once thought to adhere to 7:6 (or in our case, 6:6).

[GuiltyLion]

I'm getting the feeling that this setup might lean towards being town favored with just goons... is there somewhere you can see winrates on common setups?

here's the wiki. According to the table, it's been played 16 times with 8 mafia wins, 6 town wins, and 2 games abandoned. (the percentages at the bottom are wrong)

[Tejate Raichu]

Interesting that mafia has a higher winrate, though granted it is just 16 games. I wonder what the trajectory of those abandoned games was, but I suppose we can save that for post-game discussion.

[Shirou]

Spoiler: Trivia/Shitpost about the Setup

I believe the real risk of 7:5 for example, isn't the fact we know one of the 7 has to be lying.

It's the fact if we ever get one scum flip in the pool of 5 claims, we know all others are automatically town. That can be a bit game breaking depending on the scenario (on ours, it isn't).

Funnily enough you've 66% chance of this setup being 6:4 or 4:6. If you massclaim in D1 and make all cops target the pool of the role without the confirmation one has to be lying (the one with 7 claims), there's a decent chance you end up getting around 3 or 2 confirmed townies for free if it's a 6:4 or 4:6 setup and you find the scum there. But...It can also go horribly and be for nothing if it's a 5:5 setup and the pool you're checking only has one scum.

You would be forever looking for the second one until realizing that it's on the other unchecked pool

it can be a funny gamble for a marathon run of this setup. People are too serious to gamble on this in a normal game as the one we are though

[Tejate Raichu]

You know what, I'm just going to say it. I don't care about giving scum hints anymore, they've probably already realized this.

But yeah, I don't think 7:5 is actually necessarily awful as we might think. As Shirou pointed out, the danger is not in confirming one slot has scum in their ranks, but by confirming the other column is mostly if not all town. As such, it actually wouldn't be the worst idea ever, in this specific scenario, for mafia to intentionally unbalance the claims towards the side that has less confirmed townies (probably doctors). This way mafia aren't fighting to be the only unconfirmed person in their column. I don't know which they might lean to yet, and maybe it won't happen, but I feel like it's not something we should rule out now.

[Shirou]

GL deserves a good amount of town credit imo due to me not being NK'd, I'm gonna trust people on Enchant for now. Fua is mathematically likely to be town.

That leaves me with Morph/NQ by process of elimination, so if we eliminate Morph and Meg checks for NQ, I believe there's good chances that either the game is over or I'll at least be confirmed I guess.

If it's 6:6 though and there's an inno on NQ tomorrow, I hope the site mods will excuse me but I'll self vote. It would be the actual ~optimal~ thing to do even if I'm town there (to confirm Meg and therefore the NQ result)...

Weirdly enough, I kinda want for it to be 6:6, Ceph dies tonight and there's somehow an inno on NQ kkkkk. Either that or we flip scum!Morph today and have a guilty on NQ tomorrow.

I'm trying to diligently play the rest of this game but honestly I'm already feeling a bit impatient and can't wait for it to be over or for me to die. I feel like there's not much left to do in this game other than tryhard in hedging against scum!fua/scum!Enchant which are fairly unlikely.

[Shirou]

Also this may be a bit LAMIST but stop and look on how this day is going.

Who are the most engaged players right now?

I would say, me and GL discussing what is the optimal stuff to do.

If we're scum our chance of winning this game at this point in any order of eliminations is really fairly slim, even more so with the plan I proposed (that makes it impossible in most scenarios). Would we really be this engaged in a game we've not only most likely lost but also be trying to deliver town the key to ensuring our defeat?

The unique thing that bugs me a bit about Morph/NQ is that NQ isn't voting for me but fua...but hm, I guess there could be explanations for that, and for me personally it could be Morph/Enchant.

Morph/Enchant would kinda make sense as well to me considering how much Morph skirted around Ydrasse. They kept shading her but never actually going ham on it.

/shrug

[Shirou]

Oh right.

Implo pool also had both Morph and NQ. He died.

I had GL but I'm alive. What's the most likely answer here, really?

[Shirou]

hm, actually on hindsight

Implo had Morph/NQ/Enchant. Exactly the pool of suspects I've in mind right now.

Hm, this is a convenient argument...maybe a bit too convenient in fact...