Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Shirou]

@Ceph, Meg

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

Ceph investigates me (if he's a cop)
Meg investigates NQ (if they're a cop)

Ceph protects Meg (if he's doctor)
Meg protects Ceph (if they're a doctor)

Would you agree to that?

Because if you don't, even if it's a bit suboptimal I may be forced to concede on me being eliminated today and just self-vote to make both of you listen to a mech plan upon my flip. I think that would still be better than not coordinating properly as we're right now (for example checking NQ is kinda useless if we eliminate me).

[Shirou]

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

also, this assumes you would follow the plan regardless of Morph flip.

(even though I think they just flip scum...)

[morph the cat]

I'm interested in what fua and morph think of all this mech shit. It makes my head hurt.

Mine, too. I've read through it, and nod along. I kinda think Shirou is correct that his mech solve plan is neutral wrt to alignment, so there's that. And it makes me a little hesitant to vote him.

I think one of us or GL needs to be alive on N5 because we're both claimed N5 drs. if he's scum he has to play tonight's NK like he's town. And if he's town I think there's a chance he dies tonight to avoid a protect on N5, and I dunno if a hypothetical N4 doctor would be best served protecting him over a more confirmed player. Probably not?

He's efforting a lot harder we have and we probably will. Neither neuterhalf nor I have really gotten our heads stuck the game to the extent we need to, and there's no guarantee that changes, even if we're investigated.

I think Tejate said something about our play changing. I'm not sure if he means our play over the course of this game, or if he's trying to compare my play in the newbie game to here. The thing that changed my attitude about this game was the fake guilty after the late day 2 walls that fua posted about us creating apathy but not voting redtea after we unvoted by request because WE WANTED PENG TO HAVE A CHANCE TO POST HER THOUGHTS. I cannot overstate how pissed I was about that, and about the hammer shortly after she said she was going to sit down and do stuff late day 2.

In the newbie game I was extremely annoyed at being almost completely shut down while trying to solve after I replaced into that game, but it was a newbie game and I don't usually show my irritation when playing in newbie games. I was motivated to leave the newb who were still in that game in the best position I could, as well as doing as much next-day solving as I could, though I acquiesced to being eliminated before elo.

I'm kind of in the same mindset here in terms of willingness to be elimmed today though there's some chance (probably a small one) that we'd be innoed if we're not elimed. But given my with-it-ness in this game I question if innoing us turns us into our most ferocious ball of fire, so.

[morph the cat]

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

also, this assumes you would follow the plan regardless of Morph flip.

(even though I think they just flip scum...)

The feelings pretty mutual. I'm hesitant to read you based on effort here and effort is mostly what I like about your play.

[numberQ]

This is just a prodge. Just had two ~14-16 hour work days in a row trying to crunch for a project deadline so I'm feeling very dead. Haven't read anything since my last post, sorry.

[Shirou]

Spoiler: yet another meaningless post from me that will only confuse you more while trying to read me, so don't read it maybe?

*gasp*

is it bad I lowkey want them to refuse to concede to the plan so that I can just die with a good and justified excuse?

I don't want to replace out (used to replace out way too often so I tried to ~vow~ not to replace anymore unless absolutely necessary), but this game is consuming a bit too much time/energy and there's plenty other stuff that is knocking on my door IRL right now...

If I get an inno on me I would be /in to this purgatory for more...three weeks or one month? That's a lot. I'm confident either GL or Morph if confirmed could positively contribute more for this game in long-term than I ever could. I'm mostly efforting right now because I feel it's a *duty* to convince people of a plan to increase our odds of winning against the most possible number of scum teams combination.

I'm gonna be honest, if I get inno'd here I'm just going to sit on it and vote within [Morph/NQ/Enchant] for the rest of the game, maybe trading Enchant for GL but I don't know, Morph/Enchant just makes sense to me and scum!GL had their chances to nightkill me and avoid risking being guilted.

[fua]

Voting Enchant is borderline throwing. I would rather be limmed than them and that’s saying something.

[Shirou]

It's not throwing to me because even if they are "locktown" due to "meta", I don't know their meta, and am not obliged to do so.

It's the same as if I were try to argue that voting me is "borderline throwing" because my meta strongly points to me being town here. Even if it's true (it really is...), there's no way you would be able to know, and no one is obliged to know that.

If it's purely due to the argument you made off Ydrasse replacing, I don't buy it. Ydrasse is in a massive "I've no energy for scum games" phase. If her scum buddies complained, or if she realized that her team would be better off with someone else, I believe it's not unreasonable to expect she would replace out either way. She may be town but I don't see the locktown argument at all.

I'm gonna try to trust the consensus that Enchant is town until it's down to GL vs Enchant. If I'm alive by then, I'll reconsider it as everyone should at least a bit.

[MegAzumarill]

I will ask again to confirm, now that I've explained why it's optimal to check me/NQ just in case we're in 7:5. If we eliminated Morph, would both of you agree to:

also, this assumes you would follow the plan regardless of Morph flip.

(even though I think they just flip scum...)

sure

[fua]

VOTE: Shirou.

[Enchant]

I know temptation to kill anime, but we should stick to plan.

It will give us win, one way or another.

Morph/Guilty>NumberQ>Shirou will always result in one maf dead, after that deducing last one will be a breeze. It only fails if team are Fua+Anyone (lold) or Me+Anyone (double lold).

Why Shirou last? Idk. I think i am charmed, but it doesh't smell like mafia play.

[GuiltyLion]

so I got home last night and started diving into morph's ISO with the hopes of detailing out a convincing scum case, and honestly it just made me more confused because I don't think they're really as scummy in ISO as I had been thinking. As I was trying to detail my points out it didn't feel like something I super genuinely/earnestly thought was strongly indicative.

I still think the gamestate largely points to them scum, but their associatives with redtea are only loosely incriminating at best. in that it's how smart scum would distance with a partner and make a show about how they don't TR them while not directly pushing very often to get them limmed. but at the same time it's not hard for me to imagine it being town. and when I got to the D2 fake guilty interaction with fua, it's quite smooth fakery if it was a reaction to a town player claiming a guilty on them.

I'll still highlight the stuff I've been looking at in a little bit so that my ISO dive isn't totally wasted, but I'm not gonna pretend like this is better material than it is. basically if morph is scum here, it's a good performance, because I am not walking away from this exercise feeling better about the read

[morph the cat]

It dawned on me last night just how low-information our flip is going to be.

We're town, but even if we were scum, I don't think we would have left easy associatives. Since our ability hasn't fired, town gets reads from verified town, but I doubt most of you listen to us anyway.

I'm not arguing against our elim. Just thinking out loud that if town is in better shape on Day 5 it probably won't be because of our flip. I'm townreading some of the players who have voted us or suggested we be elimmed -- how could I not? Maybe one scum is among the players who haven't taken a strong stand.

[fua]

Wait, what? Why are you keeping track of your associatives if you’re town?

[fua]

Like. If you’re flipping town then any ‘associatives’ go out the window anyway.

[fua]

I guess it could make sense if you’re talking about Shirou/NQ as higher value flips since they have dubious investigations, but that was the weirdest possible way you could have worded it.

[morph the cat]

Wait, what? Why are you keeping track of your associatives if you’re town?

I'm not talking about this game in particular. Just the history of my scum elims not point up my partner(s). It's a hypothetical.

It's not going to matter in this game.

I mean, unless they are really bad at leaving associatives, other players (if scum) who don't clear/condemn anyone with their flip due to claimed action/result are probably not going to lead directly to the last scum player either. It's attrition, mech and narrowing POE that will probably win this game if town wins it.

That's what I see our miselim doing -- leaving less space for scum to hide in POEs and verifying our reads are a town player's reads. We don't directly clear or condemn anyone by simple virtue of flipping.

[Shirou]

This game/dayphase is still ongoing hm...

[Shirou]

Contentless "prodges" do not count for the purpose of resetting the prod timer.

okay here's the game related content then:

Much like fua I believe that Morph post about their flips was a bit weird, but dunno, could still come from town. Morph feels so...lost...in some posts and it's one of the few things that give me pause about believing in scum!Morph. I think they no longer see an endgame strategy if they're scum therefore explaining some of those posts? It would be the same for me if I was scum, so at least it's how I see it.

Either way, my dozing off gif post is more important though. It reflects the state of my soul...

[Enchant]

You probably don't understand ritual, but we most wait before there's 1-2 days before deadline and finally cease walking in circles and agree on plan (WHICH IS WINNING).

So yeah, let's wait, respect traditions i quess...

[catboi]

Vote Count 4.03

Shirou (2):

Cephrir, fua

morph the cat (2):

Enchant, Shirou

fua (1):

numberQ

Not Voting (4):

GuiltyLion, morph the cat, MegAzumarill, Tejate Raichu

With 9 alive, it's 5 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 4 is February 18 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-18 11:00:00)

[fua]

VOTE: NQ

I just want to mech confirm someone at this point. Shirou is at least posting and being active, so…

[Enchant]

Mafia will NK this confirm and that's all. Because who they NK otherwise?

You? Nah.
Me? Nah.
Tijete? Well perhaps, but why.
Shirou/NQ? Never.
Guilty/Morph? Never.

Meg and Ceph are primary targets if atleast one of them is Cop (And if manage to get result, it's condemning). Mafia NKing here should give clues what pair is fake.

So let NQ and Shirou go for this day. It's not worth it.

[Tejate Raichu]

I'm still a little suspicious of Shirou in principle but... he's kind of correct on this mech plan. This plan allows for no real chance of scum!Shirou winning. There's no real incentive to say any of this as scum, there's digging your own grave and then there's handing town your shovel.

VOTE: morph

I'm in.

[Cephrir]

Fine. I don't care.

VOTE: morph

Just make sure the night plan is extremely clear please.