Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

fua · Post Post #3625 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:47 am

Worst case scenario I get killed and Tejate is officially confirmed. Shirou and GL are just lockscum, but if they successfully lim you after that @Enchant then they win.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3626 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:49 am

yeah Enchant is right that limming nQ to confirm Ceph is the strictly safest play

I think fua/GL needs to be resolved though so Ceph needs to agree to check me or fua, ideally me. I think we lose this game to any non-NQ/Shirou team if I am not cleared or if we don't guilty the other scum elsewhere. if fua is checked and town I guess we risk losing to Enchant/Shirou

Enchant · Post Post #3627 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:53 am

Okay so bet. Yes i think should repeat.

We elim NQ.
After that, regardless of flip, Guilty heals Ceph. Failure to do so is scumclaim and instakill for GL, after that it's not hard to deduce who is partner.
If Ceph survives, we analise check. Ideally it SHOULD be check on Fua or Me (I am Enchant if you didn't knew). Don't tell exactly who you check to give mafia some wine to drink.
It should be easy at this point.

Anyone disagree?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3628 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 4:55 am

VOTE: numberQ

fua asking to be investigated feels kinda town? I guess?

my only disagreement with you Enchant is that I want to be the check for purely selfish reasons of not wanting to be the game losing elimination. but from neutral POV a check in any of us three is good, I just don't fancy our chances if nQ is town and Ceph clears someone who isn't me

fua · Post Post #3629 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:13 am

I mean, I’m probably dying tonight anyway. Enchant is locktown.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3630 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:16 am

you dying tonight would be a godsend honestly lol

I think it's Tejate that always dies here - the cop checks are more cleared than the claimed cops

fua · Post Post #3631 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:21 am

@GL just out of curiousity, you said there were 6 doctors. Who are they?

fua · Post Post #3632 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:22 am

In post 3615, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 3610, fua wrote:Like unless you think it’s Enchant then you’re literally confirmed scum.
no- I think it's 6 docs and 4 cops, that's basically confirmed from my POV with all the cop result claims

the fundamental reason you do not lim me today, from a completely neutral PoV, is that I can be leashed to Ceph tonight. Even if you think I am scum, if you think Ceph is town I either kill him (in which case I am outed and we trade 1-1), or I kill elsewhere, allowing him to get a check off. No matter how strong your read on me is, if you lim town!me you throw away his cop shot, and that's exactly what would happen here, so you pushing this instead of a claimed cop today is ????

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3633 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:25 am

I think all the doc claims are true. we know AL/imaginality/morph are confirmed, me+Enchant+Tejate are unconfirmed but I townread those two. that makes 6

Enchant · Post Post #3634 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:29 am

I looked at mine plan and what i think...
There's indeed exist holes. Plan not ideal. For example GL benefits just from sacrificing self.

So, i am ready to back off if everyone really sure GL is mafia. Either way it still supposed to be easy.

I think i let Fua choose.

numberQ · Post Post #3635 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:29 am

I find myself in a strange position because I absolutely see the logic in limming me to clear Ceph, but it feels weird to be okay with that lol

Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

At first when I saw the nightkill I thought it was to try and frame me, due to Meg promising to investigate me. And I was ready to accuse fua of being behind that, but... them blasting GL out the gate instead of me does not fit that narrative.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3636 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:33 am

limming me today is a mistake because you lose Ceph. I am the last unclaimed doctor remaining - even if you think I am gambitiing, better to conf me as scum in 5p and get to 3p rather than worst case scenario in town!me world where you get to 5p with nobody universally confirmed

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3637 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:34 am

also if I'm scum gambiting I'm still risking insta-loss if we lim elsewhere and it's my partner

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3638 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:35 am

by unclaimed, I mean like my night action is unclaimed, it is not used

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3639 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:40 am

In post 3635, numberQ wrote:Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

yesterday was the day for "what if Shirou is town?" paranoia and that lead to miseliminating morph. If Shirou is scum he is already doomed to be limmed at some point, there's not really any NKs or whatever that should be clearing for him. Also, consider that Meg being killed makes it correct to lim you instead of Shirou today, so from like the 101 perspective it still also points to Shirou scum. Hypothetical N4 Ceph guilty on Shirou would not change the gamestate dramatically for him here

Shirou · Post Post #3640 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:43 am

:thonking:

Shirou · Post Post #3641 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:53 am

I see, we're in this kind of twist mhm...it's hard to believe, that the scum team gambitted not once, but twice, however this team is the unique thing that still makes sense to me with today posts and morph flipping town...

Enchant, I'm afraid that we shouldn't do my recommended chain at all of killing NQ today and then Ceph checking me.

I...may have lost nearly all belief that NQ can be scum here, and I've also now with you trying to stick to the plan gained the belief you're very likely town.

I believe we should eliminate me today, but before that, I need to talk to both of you, @Enchant, @NQ.

fua · Post Post #3642 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:56 am

In post 3635, numberQ wrote:I find myself in a strange position because I absolutely see the logic in limming me to clear Ceph, but it feels weird to be okay with that lol

Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

At first when I saw the nightkill I thought it was to try and frame me, due to Meg promising to investigate me. And I was ready to accuse fua of being behind that, but... them blasting GL out the gate instead of me does not fit that narrative.

If GL's narrative is that he believes that all of the doc claims are true then Meg and Ceph are mathematically equally good kills. Also, according to GL, I should think you and Shirou are the two scum no matter what, and yet he doesn't mention that at all.

Enchant · Post Post #3643 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:56 am

What is this sacrificial bullshit, if you are town, it just confirms team as NQ and Ceph/Guilty, who ELSE can be?

You shall fight for the end.

fua · Post Post #3644 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:58 am

In post 3643, Enchant wrote:What is this sacrificial bullshit, if you are town, it just confirms team as NQ and Ceph/Guilty, who ELSE can be?

You shall fight for the end.

Yeah, Shirou's post makes no sense and I think the LAMIST self-sacrificial offer is a setup for WIFOM.

fua · Post Post #3645 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:00 am

Shirou's ONLY option today is to lim NQ since he townreads GL and that would allow Ceph to check any one of us three which would solve and win the game.

Shirou · Post Post #3646 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:00 am

Let's start our discussion by calming down and wondering, @NQ, @Enchant.

Right now on the "day before the last day". Who are the unique people that can be argued to be pushing an "agenda", as in, trying to steer the game or public opinion in a certain direction?

@Enchant, do you think this is someone trying to push the game in the direction they want?

In post 3635, numberQ wrote:I find myself in a strange position because I absolutely see the logic in limming me to clear Ceph, but it feels weird to be okay with that lol

Why was Meg the kill? Leaving Ceph alive risked getting a result on Shirou (since that seemed to be the most widely agreed plan coming out of D4), so I guess scum were okay with that happening. Makes me think the scum!Shirou solve isn't right.

At first when I saw the nightkill I thought it was to try and frame me, due to Meg promising to investigate me. And I was ready to accuse fua of being behind that, but... them blasting GL out the gate instead of me does not fit that narrative.

@NQ, do you think Enchant seems sure of what direction they want the game to go? Don't they seem to be simple struggling to come up with what's the best course of actions?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #3647 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:00 am

In post 3642, fua wrote:If GL's narrative is that he believes that all of the doc claims are true then Meg and Ceph are mathematically equally good kills. Also, according to GL, I should think you and Shirou are the two scum no matter what, and yet he doesn't mention that at all.

check my first post of the day

Enchant · Post Post #3648 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:00 am

I don't know what LAMIST means

fua · Post Post #3649 (ISO) » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:02 am

"Look at me, I'm so town."

Saying that you want to be limmed falls under that.