Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

Enchant, I'm afraid that we shouldn't do my recommended chain at all of killing NQ today and then Ceph checking me.

this is scum

nothing has changed since yesterday that should affect or change the plan

[GuiltyLion]

except Ceph should check me if nQ flips town

[fua]

If GL's narrative is that he believes that all of the doc claims are true then Meg and Ceph are mathematically equally good kills. Also, according to GL, I should think you and Shirou are the two scum no matter what, and yet he doesn't mention that at all.

check my first post of the day

Oh yeah, just like how you said Shirou was the scummiest player beforehand and hammered another N5 doc claim instead of either of the other cops to confirm a townie.

[fua]

You always say 'Go and check what I said' when you just say things and then never follow through on them.

[fua]

Like how does me hammering morph who townread you make me scummier

I had plenty of reasons to scumread morph biggest of all being that we were both claimed docs

I am a N5 doc, and even if I weren't, I would literally have to act as one or else I am outed

This is the dumbest counterargument ever.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh yeah, just like how you said Shirou was the scummiest player beforehand and hammered another N5 doc claim instead of either of the other cops to confirm a townie.

yeah and then Shirou actively engaged in the game throughout D4 in a way that I thought felt agendaless

all of this is there for you to read if you'd actually read the game instead of just posting your poorly thought out hot takes

[GuiltyLion]

you're the dumbest counterargument ever

[Enchant]

except Ceph should check me if nQ flips town

If NQ is town and you are also somehow checked as town, then team is Shirou+Fua exactly.

It's... Well. Lost cause. Because then it forces 1vs1 between me and Fua. I obviously WILL lose this fight. Like i don't know is this situation even possible...

[GuiltyLion]

and again, it was mechanically optimal to lim in the docs, there's no value to having two claimed N5 docs and at the time it felt likely that morph was scum if either of Meg/Ceph was doc

[Enchant]

Wait no. Could be Fua+Tijihu... But it's at same odds.

[GuiltyLion]

It's... Well. Lost cause. Because then it forces 1vs1 between me and Fua. I obviously WILL lose this fight. Like i don't know is this situation even possible...

actually I'd always lim fua over you so far given how fua is tunneling me in the face of painstakingly covered mechanical points as to why we don't lim me today

[fua]

VOTE: Shirou

GL should be murdered tomorrow. I'm not voting NQ and I've already stated Enchant should never be limmed.

[Shirou]

What is this sacrificial bullshit, if you are town, it just confirms team as NQ and Ceph/Guilty, who ELSE can be?

You shall fight for the end.

Right now I believe Fua is scum with GL.

That's why of the sacrificial bullshit.

You/Tejate/NQ always lose to GL/Fua like things are now, and they seem to be pushing the game exactly on that direction.

You aren't pushing anything that can resemble an agenda. NQ isn't pushing anything resembling an agenda. Tejate hasn't posted yet.

However Fua/GL?

They always win by doing what they are doing today, for example:

Day 5: NQ miselimination
Night 5: Ceph dies

Day 6: GuiltyLion is guilted and eliminated
Night 6: Tejate dies

Day 7: Shirou is miseliminated.

It's a mafia win.

Even if somehow fua is eliminated, as long as they attach me to the other one, they still win considering how public opinion is right now.

Say Enchant, why do you think Meg was the one that died? They risked me being confirmed town from my pov, but they weren't willing to risk NQ being the confirmed town?

Curiously enough, I did town read GL, and NQ did scum read Fua.

Who's the bigger threat here if GL is town and Fua isn't scum? It should have been me. I kept saying that I wouldn't vote Fua, and that GL was very likely town and my last option/resort, while NQ just kept insisting on Fua being scum.

If Fua wasn't scum, scum team would want to keep NQ around so that they boost their chances to the maximum of miseliminating Fua. It's the unique way a scum team completely inside Shirou/GL/NQ can win.

[GuiltyLion]

Night 5: Ceph dies

won't happen

[fua]

Wait no. Could be Fua+Tijihu... But it's at same odds.

I'm not gonna start a wagon on my partner and put them to E-2 for the lols when redtea is scum already. I would have to spend the rest of the game praying a cop didn't check me. If you genuinely think I didn't want Tejate limmed earlier in the game then I don't know what to tell you.

[fua]

Good thing I'm not voting NQ. Shirou is posting blatant TMI.

[Shirou]

@Tejate @Enchant @NQ

If I don't change my mind that the scum team is Fua/GL, I almost recommend me being the elimination today, but please let me talk to you until I'm satisfied, I want to convince you of what I'm seeing right now.

Ceph opinion is...hm, honestly kinda not very important in long-term because if NQ is town like at the moment I think, Ceph is gonna eventually die tonight or tomorrow anyway. In this scenario Ceph isn't going to decide the result of this game, but rather two of @Tejate/@Enchant/@NQ likely will.

[fua]

I think Shirou accidentally just confirmed NQ and Ceph are just town.

[Shirou]

Good thing I'm not voting NQ. Shirou is posting blatant TMI.

It doesn't matter if it's NQ or me.

You are just gonna pair up the other one with GL to win.

[fua]

If you think GL is scum then why didn't you check him???? What changed in between now and your last read????????????????????/

[GuiltyLion]

frankly I think Ceph is just spewed town whoever is scum here so I don't feel like limming nQ over Shirou today is particularly important even if it does fractionally reduce the chance of losing to Ceph+nQ

I'm happy with either of Shirou/nQ, with the main caveat that if either of them flips town, Ceph agrees to check someone

outside

of the other one, I would heavily recommend hell heavily

beg

for him to check me in that world so I don't have to deal with defending myself. I would much rather have the chance to hold the final hammer and solve correctly. but I think most likely scenario is they both flip scum and this is just town spinning its wheels

[fua]

Your thought process has consistently been full of holes and has made no sense throughout the entirety of this game. You post no reasoning behind your reads, constantly fail to act on what you say you're going to do, and your ISO is full of LAMIST AtE.

[Shirou]

I think Shirou accidentally just confirmed NQ and Ceph are just town.

Scenarios where I'm scum are gonna be irrelevant when this day ends. I WANT to be killed today.

Therefore to anyone that is town, can we please just hear me out for a bit? I'm not even gonna vote for fua/GL today, I know I need to verify my alignment first for any hopes of being listened to right now, but I really believe Ceph just dies tonight.

If Ceph goes for a GL check, they may let Ceph live so that GL can 1v1 Ceph even if it's unlikely for GL to win there (they could accuse Ceph of being partners with NQ for example).

If Ceph goes for a Enchant check, I believe he'll live through the night since it's a harmless check mostly.

If Ceph goes for a fua check, they'll suddenly die and GL will be guilted.

To check my theory, one of the few things you have to do is leash Ceph to fua, and then confirm my alignment today to show you that I'm not scum with GL.

Of course, they may go for a WIFOM of letting Ceph get the guilty on fua and claim that GL wouldn't let him do it if they were a partner, but hm, dunno how convincing that would be.

[GuiltyLion]

that last Shirou post is just trying to set up nQ vs Enchant in 3p I think

[Shirou]

If you think GL is scum then why didn't you check him???? What changed in between now and your last read????????????????????/

I thought GL could be scum like I said, but I thought there was very little chance that he would let me live if he was scum.

Therefore, if I checked him and he was scum, I would most likely be sent to the dead thread before being able to announce my guilty.

If I wasn't sent to the dead thread, I was likely gonna get a confirmation he was town even though it would be kinda ~obvious~ he would be town if I lived...at least in most scenarios.

Therefore, I firmly believed GL was town and Morph was the scum in the doctors.

However, not only Morph flipped town, but NQ doesn't sound very much like scum today. It feels like they have almost no plan, no will to fight, and I know NQ unique possible partner is GL.

However GL is full of life! Doesn't feel like doomed scum at all.

From today posting I believe Enchant is really just likely town.

What's up with that then?

If it's GL/NQ, why is NQ so defeatist today when they should be trying to get either me or fua eliminated together with GL?

Maybe the answer is, NQ is town even though they should be almost confirmed scum to me under my assumptions yesterday. And that means by process of elimination that it needs to be you/GL since I know my alignment, and plan to verify it without doubt today.