Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[GuiltyLion]

I am not full of life

I am full of rage at my name still being dragged through the mud

all because I dared to give you a chance Shirou!

[Enchant]

You acknowlidge that even if Ceph guilty Fua, it will be very tricky situation without Ceph being confirmed first by NQ death? And that's reason why i plan NQ elim at first place?

Like i don't understand. I will be honest with you, people tend to forget about dead wishes.

Again. Cease this sacrificial bullshit. Try to kill scum not self lol (unless you are scum but then try to kill town not self wtf)

[Shirou]

if both of you're scum as I suspect at the moment, your mindset coming to this day and right now would also be just try to shade me and discredit as much as possible even if I say I'm willing to be the elimination today voluntarily (and therefore, maybe even self-vote).

However both Enchant and NQ didn't seem very keen on me today, even though they should if they were scum. This really just feel like a huge theater between fua and GL.

@Tejate, @Enchant, @NQ why do you think that in the last bits of D3, fua tried to change GL from my cop pool to their own?

They may say "I suspected GL/Shirou as a team" right now to excuse their behavior there but that's just wasn't true back in D3. They weren't suspicious or at least not very suspicious of a me/GL team at all back then.

The real reason fua wanted GL in their cop pool, is because rather than Tejate for example, they would be able to clear their partner GL, and the pool right now would be Tejate/NQ/Shirou since consensus believed fua. They would have a surplus of eliminations if this was the case, but right now they don't.

Fua was testing me on GL back in D3, and when I flip town, please consider the fact it may all be for the simple reason that fua is GL's partner.

[fua]

[Shirou]

I am not full of life

I am full of rage at my name still being dragged through the mud

all because I dared to give you a chance Shirou!

kkkkk

I can't see many universes where you're town right now (unless it's fua/NQ I guess? but that feels kinda weird considering NQ was pushing for fua at the same time they said I wasn't very likely?), but this will be funny once I flip town as well if you're ever town here.

Like, I think Fua/NQ isn't impossible but hm, dunno, doesn't feel like it to me considering how NQ is acting.

[GuiltyLion]

if Meg or Ceph is a doctor it would confirm one of Shirou/numberQ as town, right?

I don't disagree that one of Shirou/numberQ is town. Mine is a nearly entirely read-based opinion as to which, but I'm curious what your logic for this statement is.

we have 6 doc claims and 4 cop claims

implo confirmed cop, fua isn't strictly confirmed cop but close enough for today

another doc claim means that at least one of Shirou/numberQ has to be truthful. even if we're in paranoia world where fua is scum, would still mean one of Shirou/nQ is town.

which would be important info because fmpov Shirou/nQ is still a valid solve - and I feel like it should be one of your main solves too?? I need to think through from your point of view but if you claim town and one of them is town it would drastically shrink the POE fypov, so I feel this is again a Weird Remark

I spent a little time trying to see if I could logik out any new info mechanically but I think without Ceph/Meg's claims it's not possible. we have some key pieces of info:

- Tejate can only be partnered with fua
- Ceph can only be partnered with nQ
- Meg can only be partnered with Shirou

- if any further doc claims, at least one of the doctors is scum and at least one of nq/Shirou is town
- if -two- further doc claims, all of the cops are town and scum team is exactly in {Enchant, morph, GL} <- this is because the other doc claims become conftown by virtue of the cops becoming conftown

but I don't think we can actually form any hard conclusions, at least that I am seeing yet. FMPOV it seems extremely likely that at least one of Meg/Ceph is a cop, since I know I am not scum.

also it's worth noting that scum know what possible roles remain for Ceph/Meg, so if it's something like they're both cops then scum would know that already. I definitely don't think Ceph/Meg should unilaterally claim unless they both agree to it since one's claim would inform scum of the other (assuming both are town), but I think it's worth considering claiming, because another doc claim would be useful in narrowing the POE, and if two doc claims then it's auto

and if both are cops, we can at least get a guaranteed investigation - if they are both N4, scum can't kill both, and if one is N5, then either or both morph/I can be leashed to them

fua, if you want a non-snarky, non-confrontational reach out, I can tone it down, sorry I've been a bit acerbic today

but I really need you to think about these posts and what the game looks like from my point of view as a doc, and understand why my read evolved from "lim Shirou" to "lim morph" yesterday. if I had known both Meg/Ceph were cops for sure, I likely would have gone for Shirou yesterday. but I didn't know that, because I'm town, and it made it fairly good odds morph was lying and one of Meg/Ceph were doc, which would mean one of nQ/Shirou was necessarily town. Especially since both Meg/Ceph seemed ok with limming morph. and it was also weird to me that morph wasn't on board with a nQ/Shirou solve.

now that I realize it was all foolish paranoia and Shirou is almost assuredly scum, it makes me back to my original solve/idea of nQ-Shirou team.

[fua]

I'm fine with limming Shirou today but you are still second from the top of my scumreads by sheer PoE and Shirou scumspewing. Ceph should never be limmed unless NQ is scum (In which case we just win), Enchant should never be limmed EVER, and Tejate should never EVER be limmed either.

[numberQ]

If you think GL is scum then why didn't you check him???? What changed in between now and your last read????????????????????/

I thought GL could be scum like I said, but I thought there was very little chance that he would let me live if he was scum.

Therefore, if I checked him and he was scum, I would most likely be sent to the dead thread before being able to announce my guilty.

If I wasn't sent to the dead thread, I was likely gonna get a confirmation he was town even though it would be kinda ~obvious~ he would be town if I lived...at least in most scenarios.

Therefore, I firmly believed GL was town and Morph was the scum in the doctors.

However, not only Morph flipped town, but NQ doesn't sound very much like scum today. It feels like they have almost no plan, no will to fight, and I know NQ unique possible partner is GL.

However GL is full of life! Doesn't feel like doomed scum at all.

From today posting I believe Enchant is really just likely town.

What's up with that then?

If it's GL/NQ, why is NQ so defeatist today when they should be trying to get either me or fua eliminated together with GL?

Maybe the answer is, NQ is town even though they should be almost confirmed scum to me under my assumptions yesterday. And that means by process of elimination that it needs to be you/GL since I know my alignment, and plan to verify it without doubt today.

How am I being defeatist? I can't keep refreshing the page to be 100% active in the conversation, doesn't mean anything for my opinion of the game.

---

Anyway, my thoughts aren't totally congealed yet but here are some just off the dome. This is scattered and mostly surface level, will probably be able to be more thorough later today after a meeting I have this afternoon.

My fua/Tejate solve was a paranoid delusion. The NK and then fua's posting today has convinced me of that.

Shirou's been pushing for a self-sacrifice over half the game now. I'm not sure the original reasoning for it being good for town is true anymore.

If fua's GL/Shirou solve is true, GL is heavily distancing. Which could be very possible in this gamestate for that team. However, I think I'd expect scum!GL to push for fua instead if his partner is Shirou. I dont currently have a concrete reason for this beyond my impression of GL's opinion towards fua from the end of the previous day. Just seems like that'd be an out besides bussing your partner this hard when scum is already in a precarious state.

[fua]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

[Shirou]

You acknowlidge that even if Ceph guilty Fua, it will be very tricky situation without Ceph being confirmed first by NQ death? And that's reason why i plan NQ elim at first place?

You really have hope the team is NQ/Ceph here? I've lost all hope this game is that simple.

Enchant you're right that technically what I'm doing is risky and suboptimal considering Ceph won't be confirmed, but stop and think through MY pov right now.

I'm rather confident the team is Fua/GL right now.

If we do stuff like *you* want, it'll be JUST like the chains of events I described.

Fua vs Ceph isn't a good idea, but me vs fua IS EVEN WORSE in a scenario where fua is scum (which is what I believe right now).

NQ to me is the unique townie that genuinely suspects fua, eliminating him right now when I believe fua is scum is PLAIN SUICIDE.

If I really had to choose someone to eliminate today, it would be GL. but I also know that if I'm ever wrong, I just removed any chance of Ceph getting a result on fua!

Tejate is confirmed. Right now I really believe you're town since you're talking to me like this as well rather than just take advantage of this to shade me (like fua and GL is doing by the way?).

WHO ELSE can I kill today without completely ruining our odds if I'm wrong, but still giving us a solid chance against scum!fua/scum!GL in case I'm right?

There's no slot like that Enchant. Yesterday it was Morph, so I pushed them, but right now trading my slot for NQ feels like a complete mistake.

[fua]

There. That guarantees I won't survive if it comes down to me vs. Enchant. Not that I think it ever will.

[Shirou]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

this makes no sense to say either...why the hell would you vote Tejate?

like, aren't you a cop with a check?

This is pure AtE and appealing for Enchant to stick with you in my opinion.

Enchant, both GL/Fua have been defending you non stop since you repped in. You really think that's normal town behavior?

They are buddying you.

[Shirou]

There. That guarantees I won't survive if it comes down to me vs. Enchant. Not that I think it ever will.

It never comes down to you vs Enchant right now if you're scum with GL...

[fua]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

this makes no sense to say either...why the hell would you vote Tejate?

like, aren't you a cop with a check?

This is pure AtE and appealing for Enchant to stick with you in my opinion.

Enchant, both GL/Fua have been defending you non stop since you repped in. You really think that's normal town behavior?

They are buddying you.

Because... Enchant literally... said that he wouldn't win against me in a 1v1?

[Shirou]

If fua's GL/Shirou solve is true, GL is heavily distancing. Which could be very possible in this gamestate for that team. However, I think I'd expect scum!GL to push for fua instead if his partner is Shirou. I dont currently have a concrete reason for this beyond my impression of GL's opinion towards fua from the end of the previous day. Just seems like that'd be an out besides bussing your partner this hard when scum is already in a precarious state.

NQ PLEASE

I'M ALREADY DYING

Can we stop thinking "what is shirou's partner" for a bit and consider my suggestion of Fua/GL?

What is my goddamn plan as scum here by trying to push a self-sacrifice rather than miseliminate you (since you should know you're town and therefore not scum with me in that scenario)?

You really think the best I can do as scum here is get myself eliminated willingly?

[Shirou]

If I ever vote Enchant or Tejate consider it a scumclaim and turbolim me.

@Everyone.

this makes no sense to say either...why the hell would you vote Tejate?

like, aren't you a cop with a check?

This is pure AtE and appealing for Enchant to stick with you in my opinion.

Enchant, both GL/Fua have been defending you non stop since you repped in. You really think that's normal town behavior?

They are buddying you.

Because... Enchant literally... said that he wouldn't win against me in a 1v1?

They would. Literally everyone town reads Enchant more than you right now...

[Shirou]

The truth is I'm fine either way by doing this course of actions you know?

If It's just GL/NQ and I'm being too paranoid, my miselimination today isn't that big of a deal.

However if I'm right and it's Fua/GL, I tried my best to give us the best chances of winning this.

[Shirou]

What really made me hesitate for a fua/GL team is that it feels so...fictional.

They would not only have gambled on N1 with the no kill. They would also have gambled and left me alive betting on me not checking GL for WIFOM.

They would have chosen extremely risky options. Looking at it this way, I believe there's a chance of GL/NQ, or even Fua/NQ, but hm...fua vs GL sounds so much like theater, especially considering fua weird behavior towards GL being copped by me at the end of Day 3.

[Shirou]

Enchant, you really think there's any chance of us winning against a scum!fua by eliminating NQ first here?

We would only be able to afford one more miselimination if NQ is miseliminated.

How can you ever believe that the last miselimination wouldn't be me in that scenario? I've no chances of winning against scum!fua in a 1v1, but Ceph perhaps can.

[Shirou]

Either Ceph with a guilty or NQ by me giving him ammunition and predicting GL voluntarily guiltying themselves by NK'ing Ceph.

I believe in both of those scenarios, there's a much better shot against scum!fua in a 1v1 than if we do Shirou vs Fua for final day.

[Shirou]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

It's a very real possibility and I was eagerly waiting for NQ's reaction to me. However...suddenly NQ does a 180 on what they were saying yesterday now that I propose something similar?

Sigh

This game is so weird...

[Shirou]

I firmly believe Enchant is town now though I guess, that's something.

I believe Tejate is also very likely town. If he was scum with fua, fua wouldn't have tried to leash themselves to GL on Day 3.

[Enchant]

I sleep.

Please don't turbolim. I need rest and time.

[GuiltyLion]

My unique fear is that NQ is in fact scum which means I would be wrong on one of GL/Fua.

if only there were some way to figure out NQ's alignment, maybe even an approach you may have speculated about and planned in great detail yesterday...

[Shirou]

I don't exactly know if I should stick with Fua/GL, or Fua/NQ, or GL/NQ. I can see all of them being real possibilities due to process of elimination, and my gut tells me that Fua/GL is the most likely because of their so frequent spats that somehow end up with they not death tunneling each other by the end, however...I can be wrong. I'm so aware of that.

Fua should likely be town due to the no night kill. It would have been a rather huge gamble to do as scum. Losing a nightkill voluntarily is no joke when in a setup like this it's rather likely that at least one kill will be naturally blocked by town doctors. If fua is scum, they voluntarily risked a good chance of having to deal against a town with one extra elimination. It's simply NOT something you commonly see coming from scum, ever...

Guiltylion should ~likely~ be town for me living through N3? Even if they suspected I was doing WIFOM, there was also a possibility I wasn't. Risking getting a guilty like that is kinda no joke...it could have turned the tables in this game if I had got it and regained town trust on D4.

NQ...well, to be honest Meg dying should kinda point towards scum!NQ so there's not much reason to believe NQ isn't scum to be honest. But their posts on day opening felt...not like what scum should be planning for today unless I've misread it? Their most recent post saying they completely changed their mind on fua is kinda weird though, maybe I'm wrong here.

But either way, I feel like I've a reason or two to have everyone as town, which is why this game feels so weird at the moment. I think the least weird scum team is GL/NQ, but NQ behavior is still a mystery if that's the scum team.

I feel there's no easy solution to this game and I'm kinda doing my best to convince people to be wary of Fua/GL, because I think that's the team that wins here most of the time. NQ/Fua or GL/NQ isn't as big of a threat as GL/Fua.

However, to not lose to GL/NQ, WE ALSO NEED TO NOT ELIMINATE GL TODAY so that he can protect Ceph.

Look, I just don't know what else to do today other than eliminating myself later if I'm to do the optimal play against any combination of Fua/GL/NQ.

I'm settling for the "not best course of actions against X team, but best course of actions against all possible teams" philosophy.