Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[Cephrir]

Good thing I'm not voting NQ. Shirou is posting blatant TMI.

i'm too dumb to figure this out on my own.

[Shirou]

Your thought process has consistently been full of holes and has made no sense throughout the entirety of this game. You post no reasoning behind your reads, constantly fail to act on what you say you're going to do, and your ISO is full of LAMIST AtE.

there's literally no holes to what I said yesterday though. The plan IS optimal and I'm still willing to do it if everyone just says they can't see you ever being scum, but that's one of the initial assumptions for the plan: that you're town.

You don't feel like town, at all to me right now.

But I'm willing to concede if Enchant/Tejate just says they can't see you as scum, ever. (They already kinda said once but I'm trying to push their buttons, who knows, maybe they changed their mind because of what I said)

[Shirou]

Why Enchant/Tejate?

Because they are the likely slots that will decide the fate of this game.

This game is kinda truly in their hands I would say.

[Shirou]

There's no point to all this self-sacrifice stuff if Enchant/Tejate can't ever see Fua/GL being possible due to fua always being town in their eyes.

If that's the case voting NQ is just the better play to confirm Ceph.

[Shirou]

and that's why theoretically you would want to do NQ rather than me today. To confirm whatever result Ceph gets tomorrow is guaranteed to be true if NQ is town, and if NQ is scum, we would be able to test it since we would have 2 eliminations left.

If you eliminate me today and I'm not scum, you only have one miselimination left and would need to gamble if Ceph can be trusted or not I guess. I kinda think Ceph is just town though.

[Shirou]

okay I'm tired for now

see you all and Enchant/Tejate do not ignore me if possible...

[Shirou]

actually honestly, for a last post that's probably gonna be flagged as LAMIST but whatever:

This game really stopped making much sense to me when Morph flipped town. It's almost kinda guaranteed to me that one of Fua/GL needs to be scum, and it's a bit hard to believe they gambited which is why I was so skeptical of this yesterday, but right now...it's kinda confirmed to me that one of them gambited at least.

Either fua by no nightkill, or GL by leaving me alive. The unique team where this isn't the case is exactly NQ/Ceph, and I guess...maybe we'll check that hypothesis today.

[Shirou]

but that also means NQ/Ceph gambited by claiming a cop inno on a partner on day 1....

like

this game is so weird, god.

[Cephrir]

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore.

you clearly do lol

[Cephrir]

im basically not planning to have an ego about my check. that possibility died with morph (and if i was any early night, i obviously would have checked them)

im not sure whether leashing me to just one target is better than having 2 options, but am probably willing to roll with the consensus, particularly what fua and tejate want since they are prob town

[Cephrir]

oh, and enchant too.

[Shirou]

maybe I should take a card out of RC's deck though

If I vote NQ here and I'm wrong on GL/Fua (therefore NQ would be scum), I played okay by conceding to the consensus town (that would have been right).

If I vote NQ and I was right (therefore they flip town and fua is scum), even if we probably lose, I could still shrug it off postgame with a "well, I tried to warn you..."

I don't want to keep taking this game so seriously

VOTE: NQ

I can still change it to the "self-sacrifice" stuff though if Enchant/Tejate/NQ all agree to at least consider GL/Fua more seriously if I'm flipped as town today.

Ah, to be honest I don't care that much anymore.

you clearly do lol

...

true, I still care, but I don't want to...!

I should already have finished half of what I was planning to watch today and I'm still on episode 1 because I can't stop thinking about this game/writing those posts...

so I'm liberating myself with this post by voting NQ and going along with consensus! I r-really am...

I DON'T CARE ANYMORE, I DON'T WANT TO CARE ANYMORE okay?

At least I talked about GL/Fua to everyone, if we lose here to that team it wouldn't be completely on me considering at least I tried, so I could live with that...

[Shirou]

also fua agreed to be copped so that Tejate is confirmed I think, Ceph.

Right, fua?



No reason to not want to be copped if you're town, right? It would make this game get on auto from your pov.

[fua]

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

Ydrasse replaced out because Morph called them useless. They claimed doctor on D1 without being prompted (sort of like me) and their reaction to what a townie said in public (leaving altogether) is not something I could see scum ever doing despite Shirou's attempt to widen the lim pool, especially since Ydrasse wasn't even being especially scumread. Also Enchant hasn't done anything that diverges from his town game. Source: I've seen him as scum twice.

[fua]

Enchant's behavior in general would net him being a top townread even outside of the extraneous circumstances of the replace out.

[GuiltyLion]

im basically not planning to have an ego about my check. that possibility died with morph (and if i was any early night, i obviously would have checked them)

im not sure whether leashing me to just one target is better than having 2 options, but am probably willing to roll with the consensus, particularly what fua and tejate want since they are prob town

also fua agreed to be copped so that Tejate is confirmed I think, Ceph.

Right, fua?



No reason to not want to be copped if you're town, right? It would make this game get on auto from your pov.

ah you know I hadn't remembered/considered that a fua cop check also clears Tejate which is better than just clearing me

I'm fine with this

[Cephrir]

fua, you seemed to see something that made enchant 100% town at some point earlier in the game. i am strongly townreading him, but i didn't see the thing you saw; do you want to talk about that today to remove any doubt?

Ydrasse replaced out because Morph called them useless. They claimed doctor on D1 without being prompted (sort of like me) and their reaction to what a townie said in public (leaving altogether) is not something I could see scum ever doing despite Shirou's attempt to widen the lim pool, especially since Ydrasse wasn't even being especially scumread. Also Enchant hasn't done anything that diverges from his town game. Source: I've seen him as scum twice.

i see

[Shirou]

Unless NQ is scum.

If NQ is scum it kinda means Ceph isn't gonna be confirmed after we flip NQ, and we will still have 2 miseliminations for one scum in [Shirou/Ceph/GL] (considering a scenario where fua is town, and fua/Tejate is the people I'm trying to convince here).

If NQ is scum, I believe Ceph should check GL for example. That way, even if he gets an inno on GL, it's guaranteed for us to win if fua is town, since we would have 2 miseliminations for two slots [Shirou/Ceph]

If NQ flips scum and we check fua, if the last scum is inside [Shirou/GL/Ceph] (which is what most people would believe if NQ flipped scum right?), we could end up losing.

I believe the cop checking fua if NQ flips town, and GL if flips scum, is a good plan.

@Fua What do you think? I'm also fine if you switch GL with me. We can't both be scum if NQ is scum, and if NQ is town and the scum team in your pov would be exactly NQ/GL, we check you so that there's no way for us to miseliminate you.

Sounds good?

[GuiltyLion]

so if NQ flips scum, you'd rather the pool of suspects be {fua, Tejate, Shirou, Ceph} instead of {GL, Shirou, Ceph}? am I understanding you correctly?

[GuiltyLion]

oh wait nvm, if NQ is scum then Tejate is conftown

I don't think I see the difference between checking fua or myself on a NQ scumflip tbh, either should be fine?

[Shirou]

so if NQ flips scum, you'd rather the pool of suspects be {fua, Tejate, Shirou, Ceph} instead of {GL, Shirou, Ceph}? am I understanding you correctly?

Why would Tejate be a suspect if NQ flips scum? If NQ flips scum Tejate is also confirmed which is why it removes the additional benefit of checking fua.

If Tejate is scum he needs to be scum with fua, and with NQ being confirmed scum that's impossible since there would only be one scum left.

p-edit: yeah Tejate would be conftown

[Shirou]

oh wait nvm, if NQ is scum then Tejate is conftown

I don't think I see the difference between checking fua or myself on a NQ scumflip tbh, either should be fine?

The consensus opinion is that fua is townier than you or me.

Therefore, on everyone pov, Shirou/NQ or GL/NQ should be a much more likely team than Fua/NQ.

If Fua gets checked on a NQ scum flip, Ceph isn't confirmed so that makes it possible for one scum in [Ceph/Shirou/GL] to win a 1v1 in the last day.

If one of [Shirou/GL] gets checked, it of course makes it possible for a scum!fua to win in that situation if the team was Fua/NQ.

However, most people on a NQ scum flip believe that scum is in [Ceph/Shirou/GL], so to not receive the blame if for example, scum!Ceph or scum!GL wins here by us double checking fua on my request, I would like to point this out.

That if NQ is scum, there's a possibility of scum!Ceph or scum!GL winning if we do check fua.

[GuiltyLion]

I guess FYPOV if you assume NQ scum, fua town, and you town, then checking me should be highest odds of getting a guilty, but I feel like a fua inno just leads to the next two lims being Shirou/GL anyways

if I'm inno'd instead and nQ scumflips, then even if we miselim you fypov (Shirou) at 5p, that leaves us with some combo of {Tejate/GL} as potential conftown and {fua/enchant/Ceph} in LIMLO. probably Tejate gets killed tonight and F3 is fua/enchant/ceph. which seems like close to ideal in terms of the rest of the possible scumteams it rules out. so maybe checking me on scumflip is a good idea

[Shirou]

(and I guess from a 3rd person pov, there's a possibility of me winning if NQ is my partner and the cop checks fua rather than GL).

is it funny yet to suggest a Shirou/NQ team when like, everyone agreeing on copping fua would be the best result for us (even if it was still a really bad spot to be) and I am here stopping it?

p-edit: yeah, checking either you or me in a scum flip is the best we can hope, who knows maybe both of us are town and ceph is scum, if we check fua in that scenario we both lose

[Shirou]

I guess FYPOV if you assume NQ scum, fua town, and you town, then checking me should be highest odds of getting a guilty, but I feel like a fua inno just leads to the next two lims being Shirou/GL anyways

yeah exactly

which is why I know if NQ flips town the result on fua needs to be a guilty, just as you should know that as well, but from a 3rd person pov where they believe it's Shirou/GL for example, they should also be okay with us checking fua in that scenario because if fua gets an inno, we're always eliminated together next.