Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 5.02

numberQ (2):

GuiltyLion, Shirou

Shirou (1):

Cephrir

Not Voting (4):

numberQ, Tejate Raichu, Enchant, fua

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 5 is February 25 at 10:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-25 11:00:00)

[fua]

i feel like it's remarkable that players who need to doubtcast fua in order to win if they are scum are like, all doing that

NQ did that, though...

[fua]

Actually. For me limming NQ just confirms the scumteam is Shirou/GL if he flips town. Tejate is town and Enchant is town. NQ town means Ceph is town too.

So if Ceph townreads me he should probably realize that an NQ flip just wins the game if he's town.

[fua]

The more I think about it the more I feel like eliminating NQ is just the mechanically correct play.

[Tejate Raichu]

Actually. For me limming NQ just confirms the scumteam is Shirou/GL if he flips town. Tejate is town and Enchant is town. NQ town means Ceph is town too.

So if Ceph townreads me he should probably realize that an NQ flip just wins the game if he's town.

I mean, realistically I probably kinda die tonight. So just Enchant is town for you.

But yeah, that's what I'm stuck on. What Shirou has been saying has been (for the most part) agreeable... but I also feel like Shirou is just scum? I'm leaning a bit towards nQ flip but hmm.

[Cephrir]

Ceph, since there's no way we can be on the same team, do you have a preference for elim? And if we went with Shirou, what do you think of his townflip plan?

I prefer to elim Shirou here, but if you and fua are united I will go with whatever you decide.

You mean his plan for me to investigate NQ? I think I've already said that I think that plan is bad.

[Cephrir]

i feel like it's remarkable that players who need to doubtcast fua in order to win if they are scum are like, all doing that

NQ did that, though...

True enough. I think all three of them did, at least for a hot minute.

[Cephrir]

The more I think about it the more I feel like eliminating NQ is just the mechanically correct play.

Alright.

VOTE: NQ

[Tejate Raichu]

Declaring intent. Just want to make absolutely sure before we end the day, are you 100% clear on the plan?

[Cephrir]

If we elim NQ my plan is to investigate fua no matter what he flips. If you object to that, speak up.

[Tejate Raichu]

Also important, are we all prepared to take the fat L if Enchant is scum, because we don't really have any contingency for that at all.

[Shirou]

yah wait isn't that just a meaningless idea/point? if Shirou's worry is scum!nQ faked an inno on scum!Ceph, how does Ceph telling us he has an inno/guiilty on nQ resolve that worry or provide any new info either?

You get the confirmation it has to be Ceph/NQ if NQ is scum. So the unique possible pairing for both Ceph and NQ to be scum would be Ceph/NQ...therefore

The game gets on a dilemma of the scum team being either Ceph/NQ or Fua/GL, and Enchant/Tejate gets to decide who is the most likely team, and by eliminating one of the scum in that situation, you get the last one for free.

This is all assuming a town flip on me though, I know that it's different if I flipped scum, but well, I know that's just not a possible scenario.

[Shirou]

Also important, are we all prepared to take the fat L if Enchant is scum, because we don't really have any contingency for that at all.

/shrug

I kinda am, my standing right now is bad enough and I don't want to actually make it worse by nitpicking on Enchant here. However even though I had much more doubt the previous days, today Enchant just focusing on what is mechanically better and telling me to stop the self-sacrifice stuff rather than shading it, kinda made me quite confident they slot is just town here 9 out of 10 times?

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

[Tejate Raichu]

Yeah I know, I don't necessarily SR them. Just pointing out that there's really not much we can do if that ends up being the case. And I don't see a real way to work that possibility in either. So I think we all just need to accept that if we go with this plan, and Enchant is scum, we just kind of straight up lose 100% of the time. I hope you guys really are as confident as you say on your Enchant TRs.

[Tejate Raichu]

Also nQ, if you think fua is town, thinking I'm scum is in direct contradiction to that.

[numberQ]

Oh yeah, he investigated you didn't he. I forgot lol

[numberQ]

Sorry, *they

[numberQ]

Maybe it

is

fua/Tejate and fua not pursuing me today was an attempt to pocket

More likely I do think it's {Shirou/GL}, the latter through PoE.

[Shirou]

The biggest problem with eliminating me from my pov, is that you'll need to catch 2 scum in 4 players without any room for error.

Ceph investigating NQ in that scenario either give us a free scum if Ceph claims a guilty (what still wouldn't confirm Ceph), or confirms the game has to be either Ceph/NQ or GL/Fua if they claim an inno, tying two slots together and making a fifty-fifty chance at a random that we win, which is actually much higher than the approximate 25% chance of winning otherwise.

If Ceph claims a guilty on someone tomorrow when I'm miseliminated, it'll just create a very WIFOM situation where you'll not only need to risk a fifty-fifty between whoever Ceph accuses and Ceph himself, but also another fifty-fifty between NQ/whoever is left of GL/Fua. They can also claim an inno if scum and try to tie the remaining one of Fua/GL with their partner NQ.

I think practically speaking you always lose to scum!Ceph here if we begin by my elimination and he doesn't check NQ, but it's up to you to decide.

[Tejate Raichu]

Well, I'll hammer in like an hour or two if no one else has any objections. I do think that nQ flipping town is pretty close to a gamesolve.

In the case of nQ townflip:
Inno on fua = lim Shirou/GL
Guilty on fua = lim fua
Ceph dead = lim GL

I know we've gone over this plan like 5 times now, but nQ are you comfortable with this course of action in the case of your flip?

[Shirou]

UNVOTE:

hmm, wait a second

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

[fua]

Also important, are we all prepared to take the fat L if Enchant is scum, because we don't really have any contingency for that at all.

I will take full responsibility for that.

[fua]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...