Open 842: Diffusion of Power [Postgame]

[fua]

Ceph isn't getting a guilty on me, so...

[Shirou]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

actually Ceph please answer this as well

[Shirou]

I'm beginning to think that forcing a Ceph/NQ vs GL/Fua dilemma isn't too bad of an idea but hm...to be honest final day if Ceph claims a guilty on NQ there is still 1 elimination for 3 players which makes it 33% chance of winning...

But if it's guaranteed we lose by people just having a murder wish for me no matter the scenarios in final day, no matter if GL or Fua flips scum, maybe sticking with trying to force Ceph/NQ vs GL/Fua isn't a bad idea.

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...

Yeah and I responded saying I wasn't satisfied with the answer: viewtopic.php?p=13262364#p13262364

[fua]

I would have to be a god tier player to ever be scum with GL and have the kind of interactions we've been having. Also, GL killing Ceph isn't alignment indicative regardless, it's just WIFOM.

[Tejate Raichu]

@Tejate, @Enchant

Assume those two worst case scenarios:

Scenario A: NQ flips town, Ceph dies which confirms GL is scum, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, Fua].

Scenario B: NQ flips town, Ceph gets a guilty on fua, therefore final day is one of [Shirou, GL].

How likely are you to vote me in each scenario? Because I know voting me there is game losing anyway so this is an important question.

Again, I'm probably dead tonight. However, I'd need some time to think about it. In case of Shirou v fua, I feel like I'd probably be a bit more inclined to vote you but I would need some time to think about who is realistically more likely to be partners. From just redtea, you seem more likely but maybe there's something I missed. I really do not like redtea's entry post in response to fua either, that's one of the only interactions they've really had all game and it left a bad taste in my mouth at the time. Something to the effect of calling it ridiculous to suspect fua.

Shirou v GL, I'm a bit more suspicious of GL now on account of morph's flip so I don't really know. This seems like the most stressful LiLo situation for me to live to see.

[numberQ]

Why are you dead tonight Tejate?

[fua]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...

Yeah and I responded saying I wasn't satisfied with the answer: viewtopic.php?p=13262364#p13262364

Oh, I didn't see this. Yeah, that's not a good argument. "You TR Ydrasse but you don't have any reason to TR Enchant." doesn't really make sense. Or at least that's how your answer comes off to me unless you just want to debate semantics. I have a stronger TR on Enchant based on circumstances of the replace in as well as his play (I've played multiple town games with him) than anyone except Tejate and that's staying unless you flip town.

[Tejate Raichu]

I would have to be a god tier player to ever be scum with GL and have the kind of interactions we've been having. Also, GL killing Ceph isn't alignment indicative regardless, it's just WIFOM.

GL shouldn't wine here. I'm comfortable with dying if it means we're on track to win. The NK target has to be one of Ceph and me or possibly Enchant, so wine isn't the absolute worst idea in theory. But in practice I wouldn't encourage it from GL tonight.

Also @nQ, because I'm actually more confirmed than fua is. As I have stated, me being town proves nothing about fua. It's the same reason why Meg was the target last night: since I am now leashed to being fua's partner in case I am scum, I am impossible to mis-elim without a fua flip. Meg was leashed to Shirou, so it would have been impossible to push mis-elim without Shirou flipping first. Therefor, besides Ceph and MAYBE Enchant if they really want to get townreads out, I make a fair bit of sense as the kill since I am one of the only kills left that doesn't reduce PoE.

[numberQ]

I still think my lim here is not useful but I'm prepared to accept I only think that because I know I'm town. Hopefully confirming Ceph is as helpful as you all think it is.

fua's town.

No one ever gave a solid answer as to why Enchant is town but sure, he can be town. Tejate's right that if he's not we've lost.

Out of Tejate/Shirou/GL, I don't know. I think it's Shirou and someone. Overall I feel GL has played more townish, so I guess Tejate. But the pairings keep running circles in my head so meh. This is as far as my brain power goes.

I did give you the answer though...

Yeah and I responded saying I wasn't satisfied with the answer: viewtopic.php?p=13262364#p13262364

Oh, I didn't see this. Yeah, that's not a good argument. "You TR Ydrasse but you don't have any reason to TR Enchant." doesn't really make sense. Or at least that's how your answer comes off to me unless you just want to debate semantics. I have a stronger TR on Enchant based on circumstances of the replace in as well as his play (I've played multiple town games with him) than anyone except Tejate and that's staying unless you flip town.

I mentioned that Enchant makes up the bulk of the slot's content, which is why a single reason to TR Ydrasse did not satisfy me as to why Enchant is town. And saying that you townread someone because of the circumstances of their play is... also not a good argument. I'll accept that YOU townread him because you have seen his scum game, but for ME, that's not a satisfying answer.

---

@Tejate: Hmm. Not sure I really agree with that but it's probably not a good idea to talk about who's going to get nightkilled before it happens without a good reason to.

[Shirou]

I'm rather scared of NQ flipping town because from my pov it confirms it needs to be Fua/GL if we aren't wrong on Enchant, and no matter if it's fua or GL, I feel like "saving" the game by convincing people I'm the townie in those scenarios would be a real burden on my shoulders.

NQ isn't even voting me. It feels like they either already gave up as scum, or are simply town...

[Tejate Raichu]

Do you not agree that the scum are pretty limited in their options tonight? Shirou, GL, nQ, and fua will NEVER be the kill in any scenario regardless of the flip. That would narrow down PoE for us to essentially the entire scumteam (assuming Enchant isn't scum). That leaves Ceph (who has GL claiming leashed), Enchant (who is widely TR'd but not mech confirmed), and myself (soft confirmed by cop claim and widely TR'd).

[Shirou]

NQ not having voted me and keeping the discussion about whether their own elimination is the correct play really doesn't make me confident he's scum.

[Shirou]

If NQ was scum I feel like they had a chance to have eliminated me here if they piled up on me. Are they shy in that scenario because one of his partners are already pushing me? Or...is he just town?

I'm wondering. If NQ flips town this game will be a real headache to me.

[Shirou]

I also do doubt fua is ever scum here with NQ because those course of actions just guaranteed their loss, since NQ was about to be eliminated and fua checked by Ceph.

Would feel weird for fua to missplay this badly if they are scum, since up to now they played an amazing game.

[Shirou]

Ah, this game is such a pain...

[Shirou]

The weirdest part of this game really has to be that even if I think NQ is town, mathematically speaking eliminating them right now is better than my other available options considering all possible scenarios

[Tejate Raichu]

If you had the choice of eliminating anyone today, who would it be?

[Shirou]

If you had the choice of eliminating anyone today, who would it be?

I mean, considering mechanics always me and NQ which brings us to the same dilemma

but supposing that uh, everyone was vanilla townie here and the setup had no special mechanics, one of Fua/GL I would say.

But the weirdest thing is that, I do kinda town lean a little bit even Fua/GL. But it also gets a bit ridiculous to me that Fua/GL as a team would have gambited as much as they did here when we consider mechanics again...

It feels a bit plausible for everyone to be scum but it feels even more plausible they are town, except they can't all be.

[Shirou]

I think unhappily GL would be my top pick if I really had to decide on one person today if there was no mechanics, and I kinda do regret the WIFOM on not checking them.

I would be almost 100% sure they are town if implo hadn't revealed they were N3 Cop, but since Implo claimed, he instantly became a reasonable NK target other than me even if GL is scum.

I was kinda sighing when implo revealed they were a n3 cop, but it was also theoretically speaking the better choice since we truly could have ended up checking the same target since I wasn't ever planning on actually checking GL.

[Shirou]

(I'm never voting GL here though to be clear, it would be disastrous to be wrong there today and lose a free cop check from Ceph).

[Shirou]

Ah, the cold truth is that it's either me or NQ today, and honestly I do secretly want to just die here, but mechanically speaking there isn't a good reason even if I searched for it twice. Maybe I kinda get Dazai from Bungou Stray Dogs now. A person that wants to die but is unable to huh.

VOTE: NQ

Up to you if you want to hammer or not @Tejate. About Ceph checking Fua regardless of what NQ flips, I already explained that in my opinion it may not be the best choice, but I'll concede and agree to it.

Basically, Ceph checking Fua rather than me on a NQ scum flip, means that no matter NQ flip, only hell and suffering waits me on the next few days (will need to keep fighting for other people eliminations/trying to convince people I'm town which sounds like a bit of a lost cause sometimes), but I'll try to resign myself to fate.

[Shirou]

I hope I'm wrong on NQ just like I was wrong on redtea.

See you guys in two days maybe?

[Shirou]

Fua rather than me

me or GL*

[Tejate Raichu]

Would you be comfortable with having Ceph choose between checking fua or you on nQ townflip?