Mini Theme 2259: Superfight Mafia!

[jjh927]

VOTE: Not Known 15

PEdit: Good vote

[jjh927]

VOTE: jjh927
There's two minutes in between Pooky's vote and yours, I don't believe that's a real PEdit.

I was reading the rules

[jjh927]

jjh r u town so i can just take all ur reads and pretend they are mine? pls let me know as soon as possible kthx

I am town

I'll let you know when I have reads

[jjh927]

It is currently like 3am though and I have work today so I don't anticipate much in early RVS

PEDit: I didn't make dinner as I had a roast dinner with my mum

[jjh927]

VOTE: Flea the Magician

My page 6 poe is Flea, plus 2 scum in Enchant, Cyrus, Pooky, Faerie, NK15

I am confident this will thin further

[jjh927]

Because Flea is the first scum

[jjh927]

Putting things into words moves it away from my subconscious and there's no reason to do that yet

Simply trust in my my well-documented ability to find scum on day 1

[jjh927]

That being said, if you'd like to engage with real arguments, I note that the tone in your question there is substantially more defensive than the simple "Why do you think that?", which I find very interesting given that I have you listed as another plausible scumteam member

[jjh927]

NK15, I am pretty sure I have more accuracy going on gut 6 pages into day 1 than you do at the end of a game

[jjh927]

Your tone was defensive of flea- that is not at all explained by your apparent belief that there is nothing AI there yet, as if you truly believed that in a self-consistent way then I think you would be more interested in the possibility of there being a reason than the reverse.

Did you ask on the grounds that you thought it would be impossible for me to elaborate?
If so;
-Why does asking with that intention yield any more useful information than just waiting and seeing what I do?

I would say your question was asked with the explicit intention of pushing me afterwards because I correctly pinned your scumbuddy and put you in a poe

[jjh927]

I would like you to put it into words, because honestly I don't see anything AI in faer posts, aside from activity being generally but not reliably positively correlated with towniness.

Frankly, I haven't seen much of anyone that really says much yet, though I am softly leaning Town on TL for now.

To actually put something into words, that is actually my main issue. I think Flea has posted with that correlation in mind and specifically gone out of faer way to appear active although with minimal content, hence the fixation with being top poster etc

[jjh927]

You know 141 contained questions directed at you, right?

[jjh927]

VOTE: Not Known 15

Transparently defensive in a scummy way, if red flip Flea is sus.

And this is an unannounced E-2.

No, it's e-3

[jjh927]

However, you are correct that you should announce e-2 as we are playing with Not Mafia and so E-1 is basically hammer

[jjh927]

VOTE: Flea the Magician

My page 6 poe is Flea, plus 2 scum in Enchant, Cyrus, Pooky, Faerie, NK15

I am confident this will thin further

That is, for page 5, a very small POE.

Because Flea is the first scum

And this sounds like a confident read.

Putting things into words moves it away from my subconscious and there's no reason to do that yet

Simply trust in my my well-documented ability to find scum on day 1

Add in an argument that falls on the face if you are scum and hope nobody notices.

Your tone was defensive of flea- that is not at all explained by your apparent belief that there is nothing AI there yet, as if you truly believed that in a self-consistent way then I think you would be more interested in the possibility of there being a reason than the reverse.

Did you ask on the grounds that you thought it would be impossible for me to elaborate?
If so;
-Why does asking with that intention yield any more useful information than just waiting and seeing what I do?

I would say your question was asked with the explicit intention of pushing me afterwards because I correctly pinned your scumbuddy and put you in a poe

Attack the messenger.

I would like you to put it into words, because honestly I don't see anything AI in faer posts, aside from activity being generally but not reliably positively correlated with towniness.

Frankly, I haven't seen much of anyone that really says much yet, though I am softly leaning Town on TL for now.

To actually put something into words, that is actually my main issue. I think Flea has posted with that correlation in mind and specifically gone out of faer way to appear active although with minimal content, hence the fixation with being top poster etc

And this is exactly the maximum he could have tried to get out of Flea's posts, and it is absolutely BS because no one, save maybe for a newbie, would fall for a trick like that, so it isn't AI. The reads, and their reasons, are made of thin air.

jjh is scum.

You're right that's it's quite a small poe
I am good at the game
If you were town and interested in how I got to where I got to, I think you'd have maybe asked me about my townreads- particularly whoever you are most confused about not being in my small poe. Discussing townreads this close to the start of the game is the actual way content usually gets generated, whereas fixated on scumreads like you did is potentially harmful to generating content as people really don't have a lot to go on to push with and going "but why though" is how you make someone lose out on some early pressure.

You're right that it's a confident read. I feel like I'm far more confident there than I would normally be at this stage of the game, so I am absolutely going to make that clear for the sake of applying pressure.

Yeah sure, I guess if I was scum then my read accuracy isn't the most relevant thing overall, but the point here is that I said a thing and expect to be held accountable later for things I say now for the sake of generating content. Did you read the word "Yet"? It implies I am going to do something later, and that I did indeed have something here.

If you are the messenger then hell yeah I am attacking you. Answer my questions. I'm interested in what you were actually trying to achieve, and what you hoped to get.

And finally- it would appear that now that I have provided the reasoning you sought after, which you are considering the "absolute maximum" despite that I actually have more I have not stated yet, you attack it. And badly- I don't think you understand that the point is that the posts being made by Flea are very easy to make as scum. That is the primary drive here- it is not effectiveness driven by some mast scum ploy, but something extremely simple as motivation is often harder to fake as scum. I wouldn't expect to catch GOOD scum on page 6

[jjh927]

anyway E-1 is the one you're supposed to announce at your leisure to avoid accidental hammer, accidental E-1 is not as bad as accidental hammer

Yes, that would normally be the case, but Not Mafia is a known serial lolhammerer who will just hammer a wagon when it gets to E-1, and so E-1 IS functionally the hammer, so move it back one and announce your E-2s

[jjh927]

You know 141 contained questions directed at you, right?

It should be obvious that I asked him so that everyone would see what I saw.

Right so you actually are maintaining the stance that you asked me that because you were under the impression that nobody could possibly have seen anything alignment indicative out of Flea at this point, and therefore I MUST be scum for having a read there

[jjh927]

btw NK15 is at effective E-3 because no one has claimed doublevoter or other weirdvoter and setup spec likely indicates one doesn't exist

It's an open setup and NK15 is at ACTUAL E-3 as I am not currently voting there, just pushing

[jjh927]

He's not just the type- he is probably the most prolific lolhammerer on site

There is pretty much no circumstance under which it is safe to E-1 someone you are not happy to elim right now with NM in a game
Even if it's NM

Fortunately this setup is entirely vanilla and so we do not need to wait for claims

[jjh927]

I disagree on cutting day 1 short

I like to make the most of day 1 because my continued survival is typically highly unlikely, so I need to leave day 1 with my reads in the best place possible

[jjh927]

Don't get me wrong- I like later days, but day 1 is the only day I am guaranteed to live for. The myth of the lategame player is that there are some players who are better in the earlygame, and some who are better in the lategame. The reality is that you have more information in the lategame, and thus everyone is better then. Some players are just generally better than others and become "earlygame players" because they can get good reads out of day 1 and get killed before they hit lategame, whereas those that become "lategame players" are the ones who don't get nightkilled and associate their best play with lategame when they had more information



This is mountainous. All the information we get in any given day phase compounds, and that is all the information we get. We need to maximise the value of each future flip

[jjh927]

Oh wait yeah this was supposed to be a meme game, please pretend that #170 is just this image

[jjh927]

Potential mountainous game?

It just IS a mountainous game
This is literally the setup
viewtopic.php?f=115&t=88370&p=13165964#p13165964

[jjh927]

Potential mountainous game?

It just IS a mountainous game
This is literally the setup
viewtopic.php?f=115&t=88370&p=13165964#p13165964

I never saw this topic because I very rarely visit MD, but that's mildly disappointing. I had expected PRs AND fight shenanigans, but ah well. At least now I won't be reading into the champion selections for PR hints.

It was linked in the game description in signups

[jjh927]

I could explain why I'm not voting jjh if you like

[jjh927]

For what it's worth, NK15, I think you have no idea how to effectively scumhunt, and this is the exact situation you had going for you with your tunnel on the fire/pooky hydra in RC's latest upick. That is to say, I think you are town here

I am looking forward to you tunneling on me all game and everyone ignoring you

[jjh927]

Revealing your fight choices removes the fight mechanic and turns it into a "vote on who you want NKed" mechanic and I am not up for that as it's not what I signed up for

It may be mechanically optimal but it's not fun or in the spirit of things

[jjh927]

Although actually I'll shut this one down with logic

There is counterplay to declaring your fighters. The rules do not indicate that the winner of a fight is revealed, only that the loser dies. Therefore scum could put themselves in the fight against a town member and submit the fighter declared by someone who is more widely townread etc

[jjh927]

Wait that's dumb they would just put the town person in nvm

[jjh927]

Yeah there's just no counterplay I guess

I thought there was something there with regard to people being confirmed and shit but there just isn't

However it would totally suck


What the game really needs is a Fight Adjudication and Referee Team that solves the disputes as an independent third party

[jjh927]

That's not a mechanical reason

Mech assumes that town won't just be assholes for suboptimal outcomes

It's more a reason that surfaces when things are put into practice.


But yeah, it would defeat the point of the game. We aren't playing "guess the player that submitted the fighter". We are determining who would win in a fight under various conditions. I want to see creative constraints that actually affect the outcome, like "It's a rap battle" or "They both have to raise and train a child who will fight as proxies on their 18th birthday"

[jjh927]

I do think there is a hidden scumsiding element to this implementation of the setup

If the most recently eliminated player determines the constraint, and we eliminate scum, then scum know what the constraint is going to be and will have a very strong advantage if they decide to put themselves in a fight in order to snipe a specific player

I don't really know what to suggest to counter this other than kindly requesting that the scumteam play fair, although if we get someone submitting something absurdly relevant to a specific constraint immediately after a scum lim then maybe we bully them

[jjh927]

Like, I'd vote for the other one in that scenario on the grounds that the really specific one probably cheated and will be disqualified

[jjh927]

Eg if the constraint was "Whoever dies first wins" and someone submitted Draluc, the vampire who dies in no time from the series "The Vampire Dies in No Time" then I'd just vote for the other guy, provided it was after a scum lim. After a town lim it'd just be a beautiful coincidence though

[jjh927]

I don't think any sane person would submit Draluc as their fighter without a good idea of what categories will come up.

He may be a bit of an all-rounder, but his specialty is dying to almost anything

[jjh927]

Main addition to the rules here is that mafia can't just keep choosing the same people

I like this as it means that if we assume scum never put themselves in a fight, we can nolim in 4-3 7p elo and make scum fight, and then we're really gaming because we can fucking do it again

[jjh927]

If we never elim anyone who has been in a fight, there will be 4 people who have not been in a fight in 7p. Therefore, even if we do not elim scum, if scum have not put any of their team into a fight at that point, they risk losing 2/3 of their team to a 50/50 and going into the following day phase at 4-1

I think this ups the town ev somewhat

[jjh927]

Jingle may not have foreseen this strategy in the discussion of this setup but I am sure he approves of it

This is the "If town completely fucks up at every step you can still do the funny fight thing" gambit, where if scum have never been in a fight you wind up with a true 50/50 followed by either a scum win or a 4-1 gamestate where scum is confirmed to exist in 1 of the 2 most recent fight survivors (also known as a town win) - the existence of which incentivises scum to be in exactly one fight before that point


Pedit: okay, very interesting that votes become made public as the explicit opposite was implied by word use

[jjh927]

Would each player know which fighter they were in that scenario?

[jjh927]

Why are people like this

[jjh927]

Could you maybe not have been like "Hey jj could you elaborate on why you think NK15 is still town even though he has been posting like a total clown" rather than hanmering early?

[jjh927]

Basically giving me no time to solve the rest of the game either

Grr

[jjh927]

Faerie: Mage, how do u feel about the camera footage I just played?
Mage: Hmm I think that jj guy looks worse because the defense on the nk dude looked weird
Faerie: I think it might only be an issue if nk is scum
Mage: I think the bear looks a lot worse if nk is town
Faerie: Sure, I think that we'll come to an agreement when it comes to it
Mage: That concludes episode two of destroying the baddies with Faerie and Mage! Until next time... *zap*

Out of interest, why do you think scum!me would pop up to defend scum!NK15 after he has already been hammered when I was the driving force in pushing him?

[jjh927]

I thought for sure there'd be a flip by now

[jjh927]

RIP Pooky but you have died so that I could live

Now I can't be NKed for most of the game.

[jjh927]

Faerie: Mage, how do u feel about the camera footage I just played?
Mage: Hmm I think that jj guy looks worse because the defense on the nk dude looked weird
Faerie: I think it might only be an issue if nk is scum
Mage: I think the bear looks a lot worse if nk is town
Faerie: Sure, I think that we'll come to an agreement when it comes to it
Mage: That concludes episode two of destroying the baddies with Faerie and Mage! Until next time... *zap*

Out of interest, why do you think scum!me would pop up to defend scum!NK15 after he has already been hammered when I was the driving force in pushing him?

Please answer this question when you get the chance as it is important

[jjh927]

I'll answer that later

[jjh927]

Short answer though is that I wanted to find all the scum in day 1

[jjh927]

Hmm I'll give you that

[jjh927]

I was conscious that there were many reasons you could have come to that conclusion and some would have been actually correct because my defence of NK15 was not at all in good faith

The guy was obviously scum. Mainly I wanted to try and place Fire and Pooky more confidently, but also see how anyone else reacted to a potential lifeline. Gamestate as it was, there was no way any scum would try to defend NK15, but by suddenly appearing to TR him despite being the major push on him I thought I might be able to honeypot scum into defending him

[jjh927]

But yeah this is why I was annoyed at the fast day end. I had shit I was trying to do

I'd like to see if I can get a confident read on everyone in the game by the end of the day phase rather than just powerlimming Flea the Magician, but given that I am now going to be alive for the foreseeable future (probably until the game ends) I'm not in as much of a rush

[jjh927]

Temporallich, it is clear that you are trying but you do misinterpret things a lot

241 is the singular post I was just talking about with regards to trying to change the perceived gamestate to see if anyone tried to defend NK15

The "self evident" aspect of NK15's scumplay comes entirely from my rather in-depth push on him

PEdit: 343 is another example of a misinterpretation, for what it's worth, as while I can see that you are thinking you are not thinking very logically

[jjh927]

To elaborate- Faerie mentioned me and Pookie in a post close to deadline, and then me and Pookie were selected to fight.

How do these two things connect at all, let alone point to scum!Faerie?

[jjh927]

If you want to speculate at all on the participants of the fight, the big question in my mind is why I wasn't fighting Radical Rat. To put it bluntly, I was pretty sure I was gonna be fighting, and I was pretty sure that's who I was going to be fighting

[jjh927]

why not NM? He's playing some weird 6D chess with multiverse time travel and quantum superposition town game

pedit: 241 could be a reaction test but it does make you look like you're definitely bussing. As for 343 that's a post where jjh looks bad if NK15 is scum and where pooky looks bad if NK15 is town, it's a bit too telegraphed for me

btw the response is openwolfing so my vote is staying there even if it's mod-confirmed to be a misrep

ppedit: magical thinking

How does 241 look like I am bussing? I never actually voted NK15. I just went really hard on exposing why he was tonally scum, but I did that elsewhere. 241 is a defence of NK15.


343 is the kind of post I have seen people make as scum, which is why I wanted to question it in more detail. It's also a post I have seen people make as town. I would also say that it is impossible to make me look bad given the relative levels of influence on the gamestate, so the outcome doesn't achieve anything pro-scum.

[jjh927]

(my vote will change, but not because I misrepped faerie, my scumread on them is still in medium confidence)

there's nothing in your ISO that could even be read as such jjh, and I Ctrl+F5ed Radical. You're just trying to bus Radical Rat as well.

Nothing in my ISO that could be read as indicating that I expected to be fighting radical rat? Why would I have pointed that out?



If I'm trying to bus people, does that mean you think I am scum, or do you misunderstand what bussing is?

[jjh927]

If you mean there is nothing in my iso that indicates my push on NK15 then I really don't know what I can say to help here because you would be both missing a significant portion of my iso as well as suffering from memory loss given that you were influenced by my push on NK15

[jjh927]

I have 5d chess with multiverse time travel on steam

[jjh927]

I think the main thing I am griping at here is that to bus means that you are scum who contributes to the elimination of scum

that is, if you think someone is bussing, that means you think they are scum


Another word you used, "definitely", means that something is the case 100% of the time.
Therefore, when you say I am "definitely bussing", you are saying I am 100% scum.


From my perspective, you reached this conclusion by questionable logic which itself rested on a misinterpretation of a single post, while ignoring like 95% of the posts I had made in relation to NK15- some of which I would hope you would remember given that I was the person who dissected NK15's tone, and forgetting my contribution to the day kinda indicates you aren't townhunting at all- and I'm really not sure what to think about that now

[jjh927]

I don't know how you can say tone isn't substance and that you considered NK15 substantially scummy in the same breath. Tone was the ONLY thing to go off at the point where you voted him

Tone absolutely is substance especially when you dig into it in the way I did

[jjh927]

This chain of posts informed pretty much every single scumread of NK15. The primary push here was that his word choices betrayed his allegiances due to a disparity between his tone and his ostensible beliefs about the game.

Because Flea is the first scum

And what is your evidence?

Putting things into words moves it away from my subconscious and there's no reason to do that yet

Simply trust in my my well-documented ability to find scum on day 1

That being said, if you'd like to engage with real arguments, I note that the tone in your question there is substantially more defensive than the simple "Why do you think that?", which I find very interesting given that I have you listed as another plausible scumteam member

That being said, if you'd like to engage with real arguments, I note that the tone in your question there is substantially more defensive than the simple "Why do you think that?", which I find very interesting given that I have you listed as another plausible scumteam member


That being said, if you'd like to engage with real arguments, I note that the tone in your question there is substantially more defensive than the simple "Why do you think that?", which I find very interesting given that I have you listed as another plausible scumteam member

No, my tone is like that because I don't believe there is anything AI there so far.

Putting things into words moves it away from my subconscious and there's no reason to do that yet

Simply trust in my my well-documented ability to find scum on day 1

In other words, you don't have anything convincing.
VOTE: jjh927

Your tone was defensive of flea- that is not at all explained by your apparent belief that there is nothing AI there yet, as if you truly believed that in a self-consistent way then I think you would be more interested in the possibility of there being a reason than the reverse.

Did you ask on the grounds that you thought it would be impossible for me to elaborate?
If so;
-Why does asking with that intention yield any more useful information than just waiting and seeing what I do?

I would say your question was asked with the explicit intention of pushing me afterwards because I correctly pinned your scumbuddy and put you in a poe

[jjh927]

but yeah I somehow managed to unlearn the entirety of Day 1

How do you do this? I find it really hard to believe you can just forget your reads.

[jjh927]

Bad arguments are considered to be bad arguments

Frequently, tone arguments come down to "That pinged me" which is a bad argument

A good argument is one that addresses something tangible. For a good tone argument, you need to be able to identify why the tone is unexpected from town, what you would have expected, and why this unexpected aspect of the tone in practice is scum indicative
This is pretty much true of any argument you can make around alignment

[jjh927]

Well, what convinced you initially to vote NK15?

[jjh927]

Gamestate influence

I think you're pretty clearly town but nobody (and definitely not Dwlee, although I think Dwlee is town) is in the same kind of obvtown category as myself
If we rule me out, you were probably the one doing the most evident critical thinking over the course of that day phase


I mean, Pooky isn't that strange a target either as he is good at the game. I just expected to be fighting you

[jjh927]

Ooh, you're someone I want to talk to

Reads

Any of them

Gimme

[jjh927]

The bear made of metal was literally picked by someone who wasn't pooky on his behalf because he didn't submit anything

[jjh927]

Everything you just said is completely incomprehensible



Why do you think NM is scum

[jjh927]

The bear made of metal was literally picked by someone who wasn't pooky on his behalf because he didn't submit anything

How i supposed to know that

I am magician, not future seeker

I see Bear, i assume it's Pooky

I don't know, but it is much easier to reach that conclusion if you are scum who selected me and Pooky to fight

[jjh927]

No, I'm not doing that

Just gives me something to start with

[jjh927]

Why say I am trying to prove you are scum when I am trying to place whether or not you are scum? You seem to be starting with a guilty mindset there

[jjh927]

Fire, I'm kinda concerned you never let out an opinion on NK15 when I know you have very strong opinions there

[jjh927]

It's three scum

Regarding balance- this may be scumsided in ev but in practice scum only hsve a 50/50 to kill key players and if it fails then sucks to be them because now I am alive for the foreseeable future and I can guarantee that

[jjh927]

Also yeah that's pretty much what I thought you would think on nk15 but it would have been nice to see said thoughts unprompted before the elim happened

[jjh927]

btw batman could easily shred a solid metal bear

especially with prep time

Yeah that was my reaction when I saw what I was up against

Basically guaranteed my survival

[jjh927]

I am the biggest weeb here

If you pick saitama after chastising me for picking batman I'm gonna be annoyed

[jjh927]

The reality is that if you elim someone other than NK15 you can probably expect an actually meaningful condition on the fight

It doesn't even have to be a fight. The fighters could be contestants on a game show

[jjh927]

The constraints are part of the game

NK15 just has a very original way of picking completely unimpressive and uninspired options when given the freedom of creativity

[jjh927]

VOTE: Enchant

I am now indeed going to use your continued assumption that the metal besr must be pooky to prove you are scum.

Sometimes people reach the right conclusion for the wrong reasons. In this case, you assumed the metal bear must be pooky, even though in practice the metal bear was not selected by pooky. This highlights that the metal bear could have been literally anyone. So why is it that you jumped to that conclusion and not someone else?

Naturally, scum would know that one fighter was me and one was pooky. It is much easier to make the leap of logic that the bear is pooky if pooky is one of only two options. More importantly - why make the leap of logic at all? Is the question thst town would be asking "Which player submitted which fighter?", or is it "Who would win in a fight?"

So here's the thing- does Enchant still approach this with the mindset that Pooky was very clearly the metal bear after acknowleding that it was incorrect grounds that led to that conclusion? And if towm really can think along these lines, do they vote because they think it is pooky without any consideration as to who the other selected fighter was?

Ultimately, this is a TMI. Enchant believed something was obvious from the perspective of their informed state. The reason they believed it to be obvious has turned out to be an incorrect assumption. However, they still believe it to be obvious after that revalation.

[jjh927]

Jingle means that some rando in his discord server submitted a fighter that just happened to be a bear because Pooky didn't submit

It being a bear had nothing to do with pooky. If I hadn't submitted and pooky had then I would have ended up with a bear

[jjh927]

4. The most recently eliminated player may propose a constraint for the fight during the night phase. This constraint will not be announced before the fighters are revealed. If they do not, I may ask a random discord server I'm a part of for fight constraints without context, but they're a bunch of weirdos.

The submission will have followed the same rule as this. The random weirdo will have had no context as per the rules and so it was just coincidence that they picked a bear.

Even if it wasn't the case I think it should be pretty clear that the assumption is made on shaky logic as anyone could have submitted a bear.

[jjh927]

I mean, the implication of that one is that a lot of people voted batman over the bear and therefore scum must have wanted me to win.

This falls flat when enchant voted the bear on the assumption it was pooky and therefore wanted me to lose. The big things to digest here are that Enchant assumes scum would be picking based on who they thought was their preferred NK target, and that Enchant chose the bear based on shaky logic.

Like, I would generally assume that scum would just pick who would win in the fight, barring a scum player being in the fight. Enchant's thought process indicates they think scum would choose based on trying to guess their preferred NK target. Enchant is also the only player who appears to have chosen based on who would get NKed. It seems pretty straightforward to me that the most consistent interpretation of Enchant's perspective is scum that is completely oblivious to the differences in perspective from town approaching this mechanic

[jjh927]

Wait you voted batman? I'm phoneposting but I thought there was a third bear vote other than fire and pooky

[jjh927]

This changes some things probably

[jjh927]

Oh it was Dwlee, interesting

Okay, new questions then!

Why do you think scum didn't want me to lose? Fire and Dwlee both voted bear despite batman's clear superiority. Do you townread them?

[jjh927]

Anyway I'm gonna leave this to develop

[jjh927]

I mean, if I was scum putting myself in a fight I'd have got NK15 to submit something that changes the nature of the fight that my choice just happened to be good at. Not an obvious thing, but something where they're just better than other people

[jjh927]

It can only have been obviously pooky if you operate on assumptions that have been disproved

Have you not stopped to think about how you are the only one who made this erroneous assumption?

[jjh927]

I will sell you a towncred nft

[jjh927]

Fucking hell we were at e-1?

[jjh927]

I voted against Natsuki Subaru on suspicion of cheating (the constraint seemed to be tailored to him)

We mislimmed you clown

The restriction was made by Enchant, who was town
Scum couldn't have known what it was

[jjh927]

Radical rat is still probably town

[jjh927]

Please stop immediately voting I have things I would like to say but I am working right now

[jjh927]

In short though we're at 7p with 2 scum and 3 players have been in fights. 4 players have not been in fights.

There is a way we can approach this tactically and it's not by swinging your votes around and letting NM hammer early like we have done every other day phase

[jjh927]

A hint of the tactical approach to come is that I would rather no lim than vote someone who hasn't been in a fight yet

[jjh927]

A hint of the tactical approach to come is that I would rather no lim than vote someone who hasn't been in a fight yet

Scum can guarantee town dies tonight no matter how they arranged previous fights. This is not a good idea

And in doing so they guarantee that scum dies the next night

[jjh927]

I mean, yeah, could be that Flea or Mages are actually scum, which is what we need to determine today

[jjh927]

Mage: We don't want to get into fuzzy territory too much, but a scum flip will be seen as a clear for the dueler in a situation like that. That alone is reason to do something like that

I mean, they have options


Anyway, the point with my tactical approach here is that we can determine pools of people within which scum must reside and guarantee they die. Due to the nature of the fighting mechanic, those pools can be bigger than would otherwise be allowed with 7p mountainous.

[jjh927]

I realise there's something I've missed as well

@Jingle: please can you confirm the mafia win condition? What happens if there is 1 town and 1 scum left in the night phase?

[jjh927]

Shit I didn't close my tag

[jjh927]

I also blanket don't agree that all the scum are in the four btw, and so your plan is gonna be just wasting a lim

If that is so, tell me who is not in the 4 and we can lim them

This is what today is for

My plan is flexible

[jjh927]

One of the main advantages of my plan is the incredible meme value in using the fighting mechanic to battle scum rather than voting them out

This is the path you have led us on
It has been decided that this is a meme game rather than one where I can actually do my thing and solve

[jjh927]

@Jingle: please can you confirm the mafia win condition? What happens if there is 1 town and 1 scum left in the night phase?

Scum win at parity. A 1v1 at any point would be a scum victory.

Cool

Now, if there were 3 people going into the night phase, and 1 of the town players had been in more fights than the other 2 players, would scum have to fight with town at the end?

[jjh927]

I'd like you to elaborate generally

I think it's kinda strange not doing a readslist in general and then pivoting to a teams based readslist

[jjh927]

It allows you to get away with not saying any specific player is town or scum

I want you to talk about specific players in isolation

[jjh927]

I can sort of see where you got to here from your edit of TL's readslist on day 2, but you don't go into enough detail for anything to make sense


Talk to me IN DETAIL about your Flea the Magician read. You clearly have meta experience there. You and Flea are the two slots I need to place the most right now

[jjh927]

I think we're late enough in the game that you can explain your read on Flea. I want to discuss it for the sake of building my own read. If you are in the process of building your read then you can discuss it for that purpose too

[jjh927]

It's EXTREMELY important that the game as a whole makes a decision on me, you, and Flea in this game phase

This isn't a decision we can't go back on, but it determines optimal play

[jjh927]

There is no value in associatives at this point in the game in this setup because of the way we can guide kills into a larger than normal POE. We can also play with probabilities. If we as a whole decided that surely both remaining scum must be within me, faerie, flea, and resolved to lim all 3 of us one after the other... then we would still have a 50/50 of winning the game if that poe only contained one scum. We can do bigger POEs than would normally be possible with 3 elims because the scumkill is in a very limited pool and due to the mechanic may also kill scum for us

[jjh927]

If we lim in the people that have not fought yet, we widen the pool for scumkills in two nights

[jjh927]

Basically, if we do this right then the literal worst case scenario should be a 50/50, and if we actually think about the circumstances here and pick a strategy then it'll have better odds than that purely probabilistically and in practice even better because we will have chosen a path according to our reads which should be above random if you are not a clown

Hence why I am pushing for people to think now

[jjh927]

Yes I am suggesting you do that please read the words I am saying

[jjh927]

The point is that if you scumhunt now and place specific people then we will massively increase our odds of winning than if we just go on without a plan

[jjh927]

I don't know why people are opposing this

I am saying that at this point in the game
if you make a POE that includes like half the people in the game
and you are a player in the game, so you only need like 2 townreads
you could create a plan that works based on that POE and wins 100% of the time if scum are within it, or 50% of the time even if you're wrong

[jjh927]

I think the secret to reading NM is that if you give NM the space to troll and lolhammer and then that is the only thing he does in the whole game over multiple day phases then he is scum

[jjh927]

But yes, enchant has been dead for a while. Dwlee is the player you did not mention

[jjh927]

JJH what's your read on Galron? What about me, Flea, and Faerie?

You are absolutely locktown
Galron is town

Leaning scum on Flea and Faerie

[jjh927]

You think scum set themselves up to fight two nights in a row and won both times? Why does Faerie set themself up against Lich even though they were mis-elim bait?

I don't really have a strong reason to town read Flea but I trust all of the earlier town reads that were made previous days.

What makes Galron town?

No, I think scum did that probably one of the times. Flea is the most likely though. If you find speculating around the fights to be productive I am very slightly concerned that Flea's fight was against Firebringer who declared intent to basically job the fight by picking an obscure anime character, while Flea's pick is a comedic approach that would generally beat any cool and op anime character you could think of when it comes to the vote

The last game I played with Galron, Galron looked very similar.

[jjh927]

If you want to speculate around the fights properly then note that if either one of Faerie or Flea is scum then Galron surely is not due to voting against their fighters

[jjh927]

It's not that hard to imagine scum fought two nights in a row though

Once they win the first one, they've got one scum through it already
It's a different story if there's only one scum left, but at that point they know they're going to have to fight at some point so they might as well get it done earlier if they can get past the nerves

If they're thinking purely logically then it doesn't matter when they do it- but they do have to do it eventually. The argument for stalling for time is to maintain thread control

[jjh927]

when i go into the ring, im picking some weeb anime shit and if i die because none of u are weebs. I don't even want to live in this town anyways.

[jjh927]

I mean, ideally I'd like to see all your reads, Flea

[jjh927]

My Not Mafia read is actually that scum!NM would have been in a fight already

[jjh927]

I think Faerie is lockscum right now, personally

[jjh927]

Faerie Mages has been hesitant to vote for most of the game but breaks that convention to end the day quickly when there's actually the threat of me solving the game

[jjh927]

If we'd voted there in the last day phase we'd have had more insurance as well because as I kept fucking saying it was optimal to lim in those who have already fought

Would have been massively >50% odds of winning whereas now I'd say we're well under that

[jjh927]

Uh

[jjh927]

I don't think I have townread Faerie Mages at any point in the game

In the previous day phase I thought you were the more likely scum than Faerie out of those who have not yet fought but that has absolutely reversed and you're almost out of the woods tbh because I think Roden might actually be the other scum after all

Now that is a read I have reversed completely

[jjh927]

Damn, I hadn't even noticed that they always voted together

[jjh927]

Honestly that's huge

I was looking at it in terms of;
I've been pretty vocally hard townreading Roden. Roden has had plenty of thread influence and plenty of TRs. Town!Roden was absolutely not a mislim target. Why wasn't Roden in that last fight instead of Not Mafia?
Faerie Mages is pretty much lockscum for me now even more so looking at the defence against Dwlee's push. I would be happy to go into detail if we need it but I'm not sure we do. Roden has some pretty clear associatives with Faerie, particularly given the previous day phase. If they've always made the same votes in the fights that's kinda beyond coincidence, particularly given they both voted for NM to win that fight and I don't think that makes much sense given their reads. NM was just the preferred winner for scum due to his chaotic presence

[jjh927]

I am confident I will just vote Faerie Mages here but I'm gonna think about it for a bit


Particularly since I'm probably gonna end up in a fight with Roden in the night phase

[jjh927]

If you think scum would coordinate their votes in any way at all then look for strange votes

like, idk, people voting for the clearly Not Mafia option when they say they scumread Not Mafia

[jjh927]

Ah, right, you're having a hard time believing either of them are scum but the only other players are me, you, and dwlee, and there are 2 scum

[jjh927]

The point around insurance is that if we limmed in flea/faerie and we were wrong, then there must be scum in those who had not fought. As such, it means scum would still have to fight at some point, giving a bit of insurance as you have a chance of things just going well and having scum die by fighting.

Outside of that, it has the same probability of limming town or scum as ever. It's all about reads. Thing is, last two day phases you've limmed in my townreads, and at some point I've gotta question why you're completely discarding everything I say both in terms of reads and on a strategic level

[jjh927]

Why is NK speculation the only reason you TR faerie mages

[jjh927]

I am pretty confident we're limming scum!Faerie today. If you are somehow town, I request that you throw the fight that you're going to have in the night in the interest of removing yourself from the game without a town loss.

[jjh927]

There are loads of reasons that scum could choose to put someone in a fight, and a large number of considerations that totally invalidate your reasoning.

-Wifom. You are townreading someone because they were in a fight with someone, hence you must be able to extrapolate there is value in it for scum. This being said, the only two people who are making the argument here are you and Faerie, which I feel furthers my point that scum would absolutely think they can try to get town points out of a fight.
-Risk management. If scum lose their fight, then it would be dangerous to have someone who would do a lot with being conftown as the winner. TL is kinda a clown.
-TL is kinda a clown. It could have been predicted he would pick some obscure thing that people wouldn't care about.
-There weren't any widely townread players who could have been chosen at that time at all. Scum could have picked anyone.

[jjh927]

Throwing your fight doesn't go against the spirit of the game in the same way as calling your fighter in advance. But yeah, you are indeed scum and uou will be dying

[jjh927]

I've slept on it

Faerie Mages / Roden is the team. Final answer.

This is the correct order to do it in as well
VOTE: Faerie Mages

[jjh927]

Oh, and to reiterate for you, Roden-

Throwing the fight is absolutely not against the spirit of the game. There's no obligation to pick the strongest thing you can think of, or even something that you think could win. I am not telling you what to pick. Rather, from a perspective of the game of mafia, if you think your death would be beneficial to town then you should try to lose the fight. I am telling you, objectively, your

death is beneficial to town regardless of your alignment.

Please go to whatever lengths you can to ensure you die tonight.

If you are town, and you win the fight, we will literally lose the game as a result.

[jjh927]

It's the order to do it in because Roden is the only player not to have fought yet. Therefore, he will be fighting tonight no matter what.

Faerie is scum by play. I don't care at all about the TL fight

[jjh927]

Well, we've just ruled out a Flea/Dwlee scumteam so that's very cool

[jjh927]

Mage: As one of most suspected slots throughout the game, there were better duos to put almost every night. Narrowing down the poe rather than putting towny slots against each other make no sense.
Faerie: You seem pretty desperate for our elimination.
Mage: VOTE: Jjh We said a while ago that if you were scum, town loses. And we were right.

If I was scum then nothing changed with my vote?

Cool ATE though

[jjh927]

There's also no reason to unvote because I'm not unvoting

[jjh927]

You cannot de-escalate this situation

[jjh927]

From my pov it is a logical impossibility that both Faerie and Roden are town because I can rule out the Dwlee/Flea scumteam

[jjh927]

Basically, there is absolutely no way I am unvoting ever because I am logically certain that at least one of those two is scum and extremely confident that they both are

It helps with the associatives that they have both been regularly asserting that the other one of them is locktown for almost no reason

[jjh927]

Well, we've just ruled out a Flea/Dwlee scumteam so that's very cool

Any reason I couldn't be scum with either of them?

Now that you're posting I'll probably be able to rule it out as well

[jjh927]

Am I coasting on winning the first fight? Half the time I've felt like I'm the only one playing the game

[jjh927]

The point I am making is that you can and should have reads based on play

PEdit: I EXPLAINED IN DETAIL ABOUT THE FIGHT

[jjh927]

I have never felt so not listened to in a mafia game as this one


Here is a potentially very important post

Oh, and to reiterate for you, Roden-

Throwing the fight is absolutely not against the spirit of the game. There's no obligation to pick the strongest thing you can think of, or even something that you think could win. I am not telling you what to pick. Rather, from a perspective of the game of mafia, if you think your death would be beneficial to town then you should try to lose the fight. I am telling you, objectively, your

death is beneficial to town regardless of your alignment.

Please go to whatever lengths you can to ensure you die tonight.

If you are town, and you win the fight, we will literally lose the game as a result.

[jjh927]

Mage: What happened to your Flea SR, jjh?

Looking through FM's iso and I seem to have missed a question

It evaporated. You are lockscum, both in terms of play and now mechanically as you would have been hammered if you were town. I thought it was most likely that only one of you and Flea was scum, but wasn't ruling out a team. However, Roden has all the associatives in the world with you and if town almost certainly would not have been the last person to fight.

[jjh927]

Oh, and to reiterate for you, Roden-

Throwing the fight is absolutely not against the spirit of the game. There's no obligation to pick the strongest thing you can think of, or even something that you think could win. I am not telling you what to pick. Rather, from a perspective of the game of mafia, if you think your death would be beneficial to town then you should try to lose the fight. I am telling you, objectively, your

death is beneficial to town regardless of your alignment.

Please go to whatever lengths you can to ensure you die tonight.

If you are town, and you win the fight, we will literally lose the game as a result.

Don't see how we lose. If we elim scum today and it does turn out to be Faerie, I'm likely fighting you tonight if you're town. If I win the fight, you can't tunnel me in ELo, and instead I'm going into ELo with Flea at the very least, who doesn't scum read me. Worst case scenario, ELo is Flea/Dwlee/me and Dwlee is town and death tunnels me, and scum!Flea just quick hammers once Dwlee votes.

Basically we only lose if town plays impulsively, which I don't expect anyone here to do.

I passed over this because I didn't think it was worth responding to given your reluctance, but no, it is

It's not about impulsive play. It's about how you are the CLEAR partner to scum!Faerie. Do you not see how absurdly obvious the associatives are at every level here? This goes beyond a kneejerk reaction; my death will not and absolutely should not mean you avoid getting limmed. If you are alive next day phase, you should be the lim with no questions asked. That's not an impulse play. That's just a correct play based on where we would find ourselves.

Unfortunately for you, you have a scum role PM and so throwing the fight would mean you just lose

[jjh927]

But yeah I'm gonna be here waiting for Flea and Dwlee

Roden has made it pretty clear he's gonna sit on the fence and try and drum up paranoia on me

[jjh927]

Yeah I thought you might run with that

What in the fuck was I doing in day 1 if it was a me/flea/nk15 scumteam

[jjh927]

I see you've now realised dwlee is the other person voting you and are trying to appeal to flea because Roden is your scumbuddy

[jjh927]

Buuuuuh?

Flea would be town's last hope.

[jjh927]

No, I read the rest of it, but that part was the shameless appeal to Flea when "town's last hope" is a bit much if you were really considering the scenario of being voted by both scum and only both scum

[jjh927]

[jjh927]

Does my progression on Faerie look fake to you?

Yes

Name two reasons why you think Faerie is town

[jjh927]

You, and only you, have the ability to remove yourself from the game. If you are town, you are an extremely likely mislim.

I would say the situation you are in is much like a claimed bodyguard making it to Elo and being like "I didn't want to use my ability"

[jjh927]

But yeah I'm gonna be here waiting for Flea and Dwlee

Roden has made it pretty clear he's gonna sit on the fence and try and drum up paranoia on me

[jjh927]

It's actually simpler than that

From your POV I would have to be scum with Dwlee

[jjh927]

Roden can't vote me because if he does and Flea votes FM then he is confscummed and can't get another try to wiggle out in the next day phase

[jjh927]

He is now playing up the "someone could be bussing" because it is literally his only shot now

[jjh927]

I've done a bit of digging

I think the last (only?) time I've made it to an elo as town was 2017

[jjh927]

And that was a 5-2 mountainous game

I do think this being my second time in this position says quite a lot about my towngame, as all the other times that I've been immune to scumkills for whatever reason we got all the scum before elo

[jjh927]

Maybe I'm forgetting a game or two though

[jjh927]

I have considered it

A town player in your position would throw the fight though so that would be a win too

[jjh927]

Like, seriously, can you really say nobody has considered it with a straight face when I have literally been trying to get you to agree to an insurance measure against that exact team for this entire phase

[jjh927]

Considering something doesn't mean you believe it

You certainly don't

[jjh927]

You've expressed trouble believing either of them could be scum for ages and now you're worried people aren't thinking they could both be scum?

Predictable and survivalistic because you want to have a chance at winning in the next day phase

[jjh927]

Yeah

[jjh927]

Like what, am I supposed to believe that scum!Faerie voted against scum!Dwlee in the fight against Not Mafia when there was such high variance there that the only reason it wasn't resolved by chance was NM forgetting to vote? If you're somehow town it's a faerie/flea scumteam

[jjh927]

My only other possible consideration in that situation would be to meme for deadline and let dwlee and flea fight each other, but tbh when it comes down to it I'd rather just win the game than do the funny

[jjh927]

Both of those last two posts are factually incorrect

Roden, when you fight, please remember you can vote for the other player

[jjh927]

I can respect that if it's true, especially since if that is the case then you'd be the one who has correctly solved the game at this stage and I'd be one flip (yours) behind

You did lim twice in my townreads and pushed back hard against me wanting to lim in flea/faerie in the previous day phase though, so I feel it'd all balance out

[jjh927]

VOTE: Flea the Magician

[jjh927]

jjh "solved the game on page 6" 927

VOTE: Flea the Magician

My page 6 poe is Flea, plus 2 scum in Enchant, Cyrus, Pooky, Faerie, NK15

I am confident this will thin further

[jjh927]

Flea didn't exactly input on yesterday

[jjh927]

I kinda thought you'd also instantly vote Flea but I'm down to case if you actually feel the need to deliberate here

Do you remember when NK15 hard defended Flea in day 1

or did you notice that part when Faerie Mages left their options open to bus Flea when it looked like we might chainlim after NK15 due to associatives on day 1 before switching to calling them hard town all the time for bad gut/tone reasons they never explained

[jjh927]

But yeah I think Roden said it all with regards to yesterday

Flea was hoping Roden would end up voting me

[jjh927]

Good stuff

I can tell you I'm town so we should have won here given you didn't immediately hammer and so unless you were elaborately trolling me then I'm sure we've won, but I guess you'll probably still have the paranoid side of you thinking I might be trolling

[jjh927]

On reflection tbh it's pretty annoying this game even got to elo

I am pretty sure I would have solved it day 1 if given the chance

Not Mafia quickhammering is, as ever, horrendously detrimental to my playstyle

[jjh927]

Like, I can't wagon to see how people respond because the first wagon that goes up will probably just get hammered

I can't take time out of my main wagon to try a little side wagon with less pressure because someone is definitely getting hammered before I make a decision


You need time to see how everyone is approaching things and actual discussions that people can take sides on. If someone is obviously scum then it's cool to make sure they're the lim in the end but it's not actually that great for info if there's no dissenting opinion.

[jjh927]

gg wp

thx for modding jingle

i forgot to send in my fighter becuz i was busy picking and then got distracted and then forgot >.>

I mean, it worked out
I'm guessing you were fighting me so that scum could mislim you if you won by citing that you were in my poe

[jjh927]

I mean, your lim was pretty unfortunate tbh Enchant

After my misunderstandings got cleared up I didn't particularly want you limmed but wanted to see people's reactions and then there was a sudden votecount and NM immediately hammered

[jjh927]

Yeah I mean

Sure, the fight mechanic can be used to town's favour
but 10-3 mountainous is to scum's favour

If town end up using the mechanic to ensure specific players win fights, there's no guarantee that they aren't just ensuring scum can win the fights without risk

I think the setup favours strong players rather than either side specifically

[jjh927]

From a perspective of trying to solve the game as town, it's easier to put together a solve since unlike most games you can pretty much guarantee that some of your scumreads are gonna get NKed

But also it's 10-3 mountainous

[jjh927]

Why don't the scum obvtown though

[jjh927]

The point I'm making is that the very concept of obvtowning is an emergent trait that occurs within a game and has nothing to do with its balance, rather how well an individual player plays the game

If a good player can cause their side to win a game then what is the problem

[jjh927]

I don't need to lim people for information

You objectively should have been the day 2 lim but I was too far up my arse trying to figure out who the third scum was playing catch up to what I missed out on with day 1 and I let you wriggle away

[jjh927]

But yeah if your goal was to obvtown I'd say you failed when my lazier side decided you were the day 1 lim, and I could have stopped there but we got an engaged me instead and I tried to do more than the rest of the game had appetite for