Open 845 | 09:12 [Game Over]

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Malcolm

[Dwlee99]

Yea that was terrible why did you claim

[Dwlee99]

You were still conftown in mass claim and could have gotten a guilty :I

[Dwlee99]

You'd either be conftown or enter a 1v1 with scum, both of which would have been good

[Dwlee99]

I don't think you make the claim as scum and as town you'd be risking counterclaim if you were lying. I don't think you're trying to game throw so yea I believe it

[Dwlee99]

Malcolm is actually scum if you want to not get distracted arguing about whether or not outing two conftown day one is a good idea

[Dwlee99]

I'm just gonna come out and claim Town Roleblocker so we can agree who I will target

And this is worse than useless because if there are two scum alive after day one you're going to just tell them who to use to make the night kill

[Dwlee99]

I did not sign up to play near mountainous but here we are

[Dwlee99]

7 - 2
2 conftown with a 50/50 each gets a guilty
That's near mountainous

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Koba
Koba dies

[Dwlee99]

Galron/Koba both can't endgame cause of last game day. NM is on thin ice

[Dwlee99]

No you die

Read house's iso

[Dwlee99]

Okay so you expect me to think you didn't look at the game before repping in?

No I don't care that I'm following 115

[Dwlee99]

Koba I can't interact with you while I'm playing sports sorry lol

[Dwlee99]

yes, i just read the setup

and yes i want town!dwlee away from future dayphases and myself to be in it :3

Rude

[Dwlee99]

3D reverse backgammon isn't a sport, is it?

It totally should be if not.

[Dwlee99]

yes, i just read the setup

and yes i want town!dwlee away from future dayphases and myself to be in it :3

Rude

Gonna play the game now or?

Nah

[Dwlee99]

Slank dwlee best dwlee

[Dwlee99]

Wow I sure do feel threatened

[Dwlee99]

Koba have you settled on an answer for who is scum

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Galron

[Dwlee99]

I mean Galron essentially hammered STD there

Think he is openwolfing

[Dwlee99]

It's not that deep, it's a free elimination regardless of whether STD was a power role.

[Dwlee99]

Why did I go from IC to "maybe scum"

[Dwlee99]

You know your slank meta is your scum meta

It's also called the this game bores me meta

[Dwlee99]

Did you not read the game you moderated a month ago?

[Dwlee99]

Galron essentially hammered STD, I'm working on the second question (:

[Dwlee99]

[Dwlee99]

galron is also notoriously as much as a troll as NM

I haven't seen this in any of my games with Galron so...

[Dwlee99]

galron is also notoriously as much as a troll as NM

I haven't seen this in any of my games with Galron so...

scp upick ?

also this game here upon replacing in did pretty much nothing but troll and was only killed for mech reasons: viewtopic.php?f=51&t=88427&user_select[]=34278

I have no remembrance of galron in scp upick other than me just going "galron scum" and idek if anyone even asked why

[Dwlee99]

Also looking at SCP Upick - this isn't trolling, he is actually doing solving and calling things townie/scummy, here he literally knowingly and on purpose eliminated STD on page 4.

[Dwlee99]

I thought I was townie by play lol

[Dwlee99]

Koba do you just want a reason to night kill me that isn't "dwlee has successfully scumread me 3 scum games in a row"

[Dwlee99]

Okay well let's hope I'm right, Koba.

[Dwlee99]

Or really, that you're right and town.

[Dwlee99]

UNVOTE:
bleh

[Dwlee99]

I think you seem kinda townie dwylee, based on D2 posting.

This does check out with the information available to me

[Dwlee99]

NM you know you could have let me be night killed right

[Dwlee99]

Okay it's galron/koba

Seriously I cannot believe I'm dealing with this again

[Dwlee99]

Like Koba has me/NM/galron

NM becomes conftown

Koba votes me

Koba wanted to vote NM over Galron

Why? Cause they're scum together

Do you think town!koba thinks it's Galron and me based on their Poe and votes me here? With no like "oh y'know Dwlee was pushing Galron over NM here so maybe my reads are fucky wuckied?" Nah just straight to voting me

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Galron
NM feel free to do your thing

[Dwlee99]

SUDDENLY lmao WHAT

[Dwlee99]

why are you voting Galron?

How are you reading my slot?

Galron essentially hammered STD, I'm working on the second question (:

[Dwlee99]

Koba do you just want a reason to night kill me that isn't "dwlee has successfully scumread me 3 scum games in a row"

Or really, that you're right and town.

[Dwlee99]

I was playing into being a PR to be night killed... like why do you think when you said that I was vanilla cop I just shut up

[Dwlee99]

Then vote galron? Lol

[Dwlee99]

I was playing into being a PR to be night killed... like why do you think when you said that I was vanilla cop I just shut up

no it was because i was calling you scum for the way you were approaching this game except you did a similar thing in NM's game but you did it with intention to dodge the night kill

Yes, I was trying to PR tell since you called me a PR to get night killed. What is the issue here exactly?

[Dwlee99]

Like Koba has me/NM/galron

NM becomes conftown

Koba votes me

Koba wanted to vote NM over Galron

Why? Cause they're scum together

Do you think town!koba thinks it's Galron and me based on their Poe and votes me here? With no like "oh y'know Dwlee was pushing Galron over NM here so maybe my reads are fucky wuckied?" Nah just straight to voting me

Ok thanks for confirming.

So now we have you.. claiming you think I changed my mind just now

When it was very clear that I was pushing you scum in a world you are not a PR claim -> ergo fypov if your flip onto me was genuine, dwlee would have never made this post.

cheers mate, even if im limmed here the game is solved fmpov (:

And this last line is completely fake btw. If you're limmed...? No one is talking about limming you here. Galron is the one getting run up and you're trying to deflect it onto me to save your buddy

And then you'll go "oh why would I ever hard defend my scum buddy?" And people will buy it for some reason

[Dwlee99]

Bless

[Dwlee99]

Okay what the fuck

I was about to vote Koba to start the day no cap so whoever made that kill literally threw the game

[Dwlee99]

NM are you actually the PR, I was thinking over the night that you might have fake claimed to draw night kill or something but then also maybe scum with Koba to do something fancy there idek

WHO KILLED KOBA LOL okay this game is so solvable now

[Dwlee99]

Idk they really screwed up though lol

NM are you scum

[Dwlee99]

I'm actually thinking NM + Frogster is possible but we have two results that need to be claimed by the actual PR

[Dwlee99]

I fmpov I need to find one townie in three once the PR claims so this is doable

[Dwlee99]

Uh what

[Dwlee99]

So at least one of you is for sure scum from my point of view which is cool but why did you vote

[Dwlee99]

Well no but okay I guess

[Dwlee99]

1.) You're bussing NM
2.) Muffinman
3.) You and Muffin

[Dwlee99]

So at least one of you is for sure scum from my point of view which is cool but why did you vote

[Dwlee99]

I checked NM this turn and got back no result.

This actually heavily implies NM scum: if NM is town, scum would either kill him or roleblock him for claiming a power role. That they roleblocked malcolm means they knew NM wasn't a power role, which is only possible if NM is scum (because rolecop and roleblocker don't exist in the same setup)

Intent to vote NM

Want to at least have muffin chime in here but I'll be voting NM almost for sure

[Dwlee99]

I want to know why Frogster townreads muffin

[Dwlee99]

Well that's weak

[Dwlee99]

so here's who i think is town and likely wont vote for today:

Malcom / Frog / Muffin / Dwlee(if PR)

and who the scummies are located in:

Galron, NM, Dwlee(not PR)


i see myself at worst having 1 of these wrong, and I think if anything its Muffin because their latest string of posts felt weird but their overall play has been good.

I'm the Follower so dwlee is not a PR

Do you think this happens if NM is my buddy

[Dwlee99]

NM are you actually the PR, I was thinking over the night that you might have fake claimed to draw night kill or something but then also maybe scum with Koba to do something fancy there idek

WHO KILLED KOBA LOL okay this game is so solvable now

Yeah I was faking, half to try and draw the NK, half for shiggles. Koba kill is... interesting. It feels like a wifom kill but why would scum not want the dwlee-Koba conflict in ELo?

If I was VT I wouldn't be posting in thread? In ELO? What?

[Dwlee99]

viewtopic.php?p=13269751#p13269751

viewtopic.php?p=13264481#p13264481

viewtopic.php?p=13215151#p13215151

[Dwlee99]

Rhetoric is a tool that town and mafia need to use to be convincing. Those 3 links are my last three town ELOs

[Dwlee99]

Assuming you're town I literally need to convince you I'm town to have a shot at winning the game. That is a "position I want you to adopt." Even if you're not town, I could convince muffin I'm town and cause it to at least come down to me deciding between you two instead of me possibly getting mislimmed, which is +EV

[Dwlee99]

That I'm using rhetoric while you claim that's scummy

[Dwlee99]

Those were just my latest three, not handpicked, and I think I used rhetoric in all of them

As for why Koba scumread me: probably cause I got slanky? I was trying to PR tell there because they outed a PR read on me and I thought if we hit scum and had a conftown with two results in 5p we'd be set to win.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Not Mafia
If the team is muffin/frog I wasn't getting there. I think you're townie here so it's gotta be nm/muffin and I'll just blame the game on koba for being 0/3

[Dwlee99]

I'm going to assume you're not literally game throwing so yay I was right

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: Muffin man
Not sure why you didn't kill the literal conftown but thanks I guess lol

[Dwlee99]

I clearly had made inroads in convincing frogster, I have no reason to let conftown live and make it a 50/50 if I could bring it to Me/Frog/Muffin with a muffin that has no stated opinions and could possibly scumread frog

[Dwlee99]

like frog was already susp of you, and was more active than me/more likely to be perceived as town, bringing malc instead is just throwing

Yea between this and killing Koba you are throwing, I agree

[Dwlee99]

Given you hadn't expressed a read by virtue of not being around at all yesterday, I have no reason to not at least try bringing frog here in case you scumread them over me. The only perspective it makes sense to bring conftown to ELO is when you know everyone's positions: which only you could have as scum because, again, you weren't around yesterday

[Dwlee99]

I think I'm not aligned with NM if you look at our joint ISOs. I mean I'm exasperated and annoyed at him claiming roleblocker for instance in the same way I was with house which is pretty clearly antiTMI that they were both not town PRs

[Dwlee99]

I also buried NM yesterday by pointing out how Malcolm being roleblocked is essentially a guilty on NM

[Dwlee99]

Yeah I was faking, half to try and draw the NK, half for shiggles. Koba kill is... interesting. It feels like a wifom kill but why would scum not want the dwlee-Koba conflict in ELo?

Also this post is like hard leaning in to trying to mislim me

[Dwlee99]

Gimme til tomorrow to actually catch up but from after the flips

[me]
[malc]
[dwlee]
[frog]
[koba!slot]
[N_M]
[Galron]

Your argument is actually hella contradictory too now that I look at your reads! You say frogs was obviously town so I wouldn't bring him, but if I were scum and was looking for who to bring to ELO... you had frogs lower than me. You didn't even remember your own fake read

[Dwlee99]

Like why would I bring conftown instead of "nonconftown that townread me over frog"

It's -EV in two ways

[Dwlee99]

And last quoted post by Frogs is Koba saying I'm ic levels of town

[Dwlee99]

So for me to be scum I
1.) Didn't shoot conftown
2.) Shot a person with momentum to townread me
3.) Shot a person that was more scumread than me by the last remaining townie
4.) Didn't shoot conftown???

Like what?

[Dwlee99]

Frogster heavily suspected you though, did they not? To the point where their vote was likely all but confirmed. From that POV it's not as ridiculous at all. Why wouldn't MM also eliminate me as confirmed town?

I don't agree at all. It's about where Frogster would end up, not where they were. If you see where NM cut the day short, Frogster was reevaluating their read on me and (fmpov) seemed to be warming up to the idea I was town. I think NM's selfhammer also only really makes sense as a way to cut that discussion short + prevent muffin from having to do any awkward hop on bus etc.

[Dwlee99]

You burying NM yesterday also kinda made sense, he was basically gone by that point, notably beforehand you were keen to settle on Galron and very much pushed the idea Galron was basically "openwolfing", which obviously turned out to be incorrect.

MM bringing me into today's game could be a misdirect but seems unlikely, Frogster was much more likely to vote for you in an instant and your only hope probably lies with convincing me to back you, however unlikely that may be.

I was keen on Galron because he did the obvscum thing but without the same history as NM. I expect NM to quickhammer regardless of alignment, so it isn't a scum tell for him. The key here is I actually have a progression to come to my conclusions + reeval on NM, whereas I think muffin is just stating things without any actual thought.

[Dwlee99]

I think I'm not aligned with NM if you look at our joint ISOs. I mean I'm exasperated and annoyed at him claiming roleblocker for instance in the same way I was with house which is pretty clearly antiTMI that they were both not town PRs

I don't think your joint ISOs clear you that much, being exasperated at someone for making a false early claim is such an easy way to put distance between you. Notably you never really pushed too heavily after that.

Well I didn't push because I thought he was a power role. Why would I push that? Also I think you should look at how NM was trying to frame me with the koba kill. He literally entered the day like "oh why would scum kill koba if dwlee wasn't scum" to angle for that push, which I think shows he wanted me to be the mislim.

[Dwlee99]

Mod said I have to post content or whatever so here's a readslist

Spoiler:

F

r

o

g

s

t

e

r

k

i

n

g

M

a

l

c

o

l

m

T

u

c

k

e

r

T

h

e

M

u

f

f

i

n

M

a

n

D

k

K

o

b

a

D

w

l

e

e

9

9

G

a

l

r

o

n

N

o

t

_

M

a

f

i

a

Not that NM's read list here exactly went into detail, but I don't see why they put their teammate so high up. Also don't believe NM would jump onto the final vote of an initial bandwagon started by his teammate, personally feels a bit too obvious.

This is extremely level 0. I wouldn't be surprised if NM like randomized that list or something. Or even if it was planned... why not put your buddy high up? You don't want them limmed so??

My only concern re MM is that they did push that initial bandwagon but have been largely quiet riding the game out since then without much suspicion. There's a certain convenience to that, but we'd have to be extremely unlucky statistically for my role check on MM to end up being mafia as opposed to townie.

Your role check on MM was vanilla, not vanilla townie. NM flipped roleblocker so the last scum is vanilla meaning there is no alignment information in MM and I both being vanilla.

But also, yea, muffin has been coasting off nothing for three days.

[Dwlee99]

Tbf i would also lowkey be down to kill N_M

Galron just scummier tho, so if we have the votes...

MM was willing to go NM day two, so not as if they mounted a particular defence, but did opt for Galron. But I did the same, as did most of us. In retrospect not a lot of thought really went into that vote.

Imo that's just classic distance. It isn't hard to say "yea I'd kill my scum partner but actually let's kill this other person"

That's arguably TMI when NM was a claimed power role and he shouldn't even really be on anyone's list to yeet without a CC.

[Dwlee99]

Galron is now also the 2nd FoS of NM

That reads list was probably put into random.org

lol

[Dwlee99]

Spoiler: my reaction to NM claiming follower

so here's who i think is town and likely wont vote for today:

Malcom / Frog / Muffin / Dwlee(if PR)

and who the scummies are located in:

Galron, NM, Dwlee(not PR)


i see myself at worst having 1 of these wrong, and I think if anything its Muffin because their latest string of posts felt weird but their overall play has been good.

I'm the Follower so dwlee is not a PR

NM you know you could have let me be night killed right

VOTE: Dwlee

Okay it's galron/koba

Seriously I cannot believe I'm dealing with this again

Like Koba has me/NM/galron

NM becomes conftown

Koba votes me

Koba wanted to vote NM over Galron

Why? Cause they're scum together

Do you think town!koba thinks it's Galron and me based on their Poe and votes me here? With no like "oh y'know Dwlee was pushing Galron over NM here so maybe my reads are fucky wuckied?" Nah just straight to voting me

I think this is also NM angling to mislim me. I mean like Koba is saying "oh yea dwlee is scum if not a PR" and NM goes "yea dwlee isn't a PR" why would he do this if he's scum with me?

[Dwlee99]

Like he completely sets up this interaction:
Make Koba scumread me by saying I'm not a power role -> kill koba -> try to frame me for the kill.

[Dwlee99]

this is exactly why dwlee brings me to elo. he can't easily pin down on why I'm scummy, so he's focusing on lack of activity (which if you wanna try to explain why that's scummy as opposed to NAI, go for it) and trying really hard to build a narrative of why I would choose this Elo and he wouldn't (despite the fact that all the reasons for him not choosing it apply just as much to me if not more so)

You have offered literally no reasons I'm scummy besides night kill WIFOM that flipped scum were actively pushing so... this is very hypocritical and bad faith which should be obvious

[Dwlee99]

in reference to these three posts:
again, your entire argument for me being scum is that I apparently would do these things? which I'm assuming is based on this being a new account, but I'm quite obviously not a new player

Yea this is actually extremely damning for you because I'm pretty sure Koba's townread on you was based on you seeming new because it was all weak sauce level 0 stuff. Like you come into this ELO on 26 post coast, and you're not a new player? And you also clearly have enough knowledge to try to setup frame jobs with night kills if you're not new? Like idk I once killed literally everyone who townread me to argue in an ELO that the night kills obviously didn't point to me because everyone who townread me died and scumread the person who voted me. But thats what your entire argument is based on. Again, I reiterate, you have not offered a single reason I'm scummy besides the night kills seemingly pointing to me, which is

the argument the flipped scum was pushing on my slot

.

but yah, your entire pitch here fails to account for why I don't just shoot the conftown (when a frog/dwlee/me endgame doubles my odds of getting a vote on town and I only close down my options while still having to 1v1 there if scum so.... it's like ???? as an explanation for me either)

This literally all applies to me and I already argued it. But I also was obviously set to vote you, so it comes down to whether you think Malcolm or Frogs is more likey to vote with you.
Which brings me to:

you're arguing that frog had momentum to TR you --> I don't think his engaging with you is the same thing as "momentum to TR", it's just part of assessing? I certainly don't think that based on his final posts you'd have had any sort of confidence that you had brought him round enough for him not to insta-vote you

Based on their last posts they were looking at Koba calling me an IC. There was clearly momentum there and they were listening to my arguments and engaging with me, looking at my previous ELOs where I engage in the same way, etc.

and for the 3rd bit again that you'd have to be assuming my reads were unchanged and I don't think that's something you realistically think if being honest

It still would have been a better bet than killing conftown like I think this kill would be extremely bad if I were scum.

[Dwlee99]

anyway, malc, is this helpful or nah? I can be around and respond to dwlee if you like, if you wanna ask me about what I was thinking at certain points in the game I can do that insofar as I remember, but like lowkey idk if any of that really makes choosing easier and I stand by the fact that highest accuracy in elo comes from looking at past days (the main reason why I'm even talking today is bc I know my content has been low and therefore I figure it might be harder to base a choice just off that)

And note that despite saying highest accuracy is in looking at past days, their main argument is (reiterating)

the argument flipped scum used on the night kills, not actually past days

[Dwlee99]

this makes zero sense and totally disregards my ability to read up overnight? also we'll pick up on this later, but I think it's disingenuous to not think that my reads would change from pre-Galron-or-NM-flips after those both came round -- but I never got the chance to talk about either until now

Your trajectory is unknown vs leaving conftown alive. I would go for the unknown that last townread me in this scenario.

NM was going down yesterday regardless of what you did, and your play around him was in no way clearing -- firstly because ofc scum are bussing there) and the speed of your vote actually was antitown bc it let NM drop the self and end day early, which is actually v convenient when you wanna, let's say, target someone who hasn't posted before they get a chance to

Except my progression is extremely natural vs just looking good. Scum can choose to look good by having right reads but will fail in having a progression that makes sense. You can see that when Frog votes NM I'm sorting Frog, not just going "oh okay bus time." Like you can feel the gears ticking in my head that go "okay engaging with frogs, realizing roleblocker interaction, frogs is townie on this engage, solve acquired"

mmmm

You can't just "mmm" the obvious framing of NM here like you don't have an argument because it is just that obvious that NM is trying to mislim me with that argument

[Dwlee99]

It's actually extremely funny to me that when Koba started scumreading me for purposefully slanking to PR tell, they just completely ignored muffin man being straight up absent from the game

[Dwlee99]

Spoiler: like speaking of day play here's muffin's entire day two

whoops, I forgot about this

I'll get round to this properly this evening but for now VOTE: galron

thats E-1, please someoen unvote so we can maintain discussion time for now

What else needs to be discussed

Gimme til tomorrow to actually catch up but from after the flips

[me]
[malc]
[dwlee]
[frog]
[koba!slot]
[N_M]
[Galron]

Tbf i would also lowkey be down to kill N_M

Galron just scummier tho, so if we have the votes...

Not meaning literally rn obviously

Okay I gots to bounce again, if u want me to focus on anything when I catch up then lmk right under this post

I’ll check it befor I get to it

[Dwlee99]

thats E-1, please someoen unvote so we can maintain discussion time for now

What else needs to be discussed

This post in particular is very bad because they have one post voting Galron this day phase, no other discussion, and are like yea okay we can end this

How is this townie lol

[Dwlee99]

I think you seem kinda townie dwylee, based on D2 posting.

This does check out with the information available to me

Oh who said I was townie based on past days

[Dwlee99]

TLDR: i don't think I'd make the night kill but also like night kill spec bad when flipped scum tried to use it specifically to murder me, and muffin's main argument is literally the flipped scum argument for me being scum - the night kills. In extremely basic terms: NM says "dwlee scum cause koba night kill" and now Muffin comes into today with the only argument for me being scum based on these night kills. Because that was the entire scum plan to win.

TLDR (extended version): Muffin hard coasted through day two and was fine with day ending after they made one post with essentially a naked vote which is not a townie thought process at all.

TLDR (extended extended version): Muffin is talking out of both sides his mouth saying look at past days and then only arguing I'm scum cause night kills.

[Dwlee99]

Well you were wrong lol

The final mafia was a GOON. Meaning your result shows vanilla on them. Your result was literally completely irrelevant

[Dwlee99]

Tbh I don't know why I keep losing these situations / keep getting mislimmed. I had all the argument and Muffin had "well uhhh night kill"

At least when Koba mislimmed me in ELO they had better arguments

[Dwlee99]

And tbh I feel like you literally didn't read my posts if you felt like it was firing in the dark :/

There was plenty of content to analyze

[Dwlee99]

*

1 Mafia Goon
* 1 Mafia PR

* 2 Town PRs
* 5 Vanilla Townies

Not_Mafia was eliminated. They were a...

.

Mafia Roleblocker

I think the role thing annoys me the most mainly cause it's just like factually wrong

Anyway, last post on this gg y'all

[Dwlee99]

Well you were wrong lol

The final mafia was a GOON.

Meaning your result shows vanilla on them.

Your result was literally completely irrelevant

Was aware that was a possibility, but your average finding will still be town more often than goon. Anyway, apologies, called it wrong.

The result did not make muffin more likely to be town once NM flipped roleblocker.

After N1 the game is

4x VT
Vanilla Cop
Roleblocker
Goon

So if you get "vanilla" result, then the chance of them being scum is now 1/5 fypov (as they are confirmed not roleblocker)

With no result, their chance of being scum is 2/6 > 1/5

So vanilla makes it more likely they're town there

Once the roleblocker flipped (and in ELO) the setup was

VT
Vanilla Cop
Goon

Probability of muffin scum given vanilla is 1/2
Probability of muffin scum given no result is still 1/2, because both remaining people were vanilla.

So your result had no relationship to the probability muffin was scum or not because the probability doesn't shift with getting the result.