Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[Meuh]

the worst expressing worry about ydrasse and then offering her a trust very shortly thereafter is comparable?

I don't think he expressed worry about Ydra the way Meuh "cased" duckie.

Just skimming iso it seems like more of a poe thing than actual focused suspicion?

hm

@meuh what did you like about the worst’s response to your case though?

something feels amiss here

i guess i should wait for the worst to walk me through thought process regarding ydrasse before saying more on that

okie dokie

meuh ur looking at a lot of things which look superficially bad but I find it very hard to believe u actually think I'm scum 4 any of them lol

I kinda hate this post ngl tbh imo
Like I guess trying to read me off of the case I made is fair?
But it feels dismissive, questioning my motives behind it before yknow, the actual argument I made, which is what I'd expect people to focus on?

kuri/anyone else do you think meuh's case is scummy or misguided or etc.?

I feel like it coming so fresh off the enchant flip (and being the first piece of like, actual game related content in their iso) should tell me something. its also 5am and I feel quite ill so brain not firing.

"scummy or misguided or etc.?"

is uh well I guess it includes the etc which is very nice of them. However Duckie's approach to responding to my post mostly comprises of throwing shade on me or really pushing the idea of either
1. Meuh is a poor misguided townie
2. Meuh is an evil scum
from town!duckie's perspective yes, this makes sense; but the way they're pushing others towards it makes me a bit uneasy, it's not letting my argument have room to breathe
maybe they really think my argument is just that terrible but it rubs me the wrong way

basically I guess I'm trying to work out if a f3 of [greeting, pavowski, ydrasse] just wins the game and I dont know whether bugspray or meuh is my fourth there. I guess I can see scum identifying me as relatively easy to keep in the poe.

meuh's case is the sort of thing i could take or leave alignment wise

it feels good on a skim like, oh look, things being said, i don't feel absolutely insane trying to read it from a town meuh's perspective but i also feel like it is ...

i don't like inevitabilities but to me it feels inevitable still that meuh ends up in f4 regardless of whatever opinion is

this kind of resonates with the deep sigh in my soul about it. I'm a lil anxious about this core of meuh/pav/greeting which has 1-2 town in it.

perhaps Duckie's perspective has changed because of my big post but this is more casting doubt on my good intentions
which is a turnaround from the beautiful 1060

[the worst]

hi hi

[the worst]

trust: ydrasse

sorry if this one is epic dumb

hmhmhm

could you walk me through the

'i am worried mafia!ydrasse is turning it on for day two'

to

trusting ydrasse thought process please?

god it's difficult to explain. the more i read ydrasse's posts the more i felt like, incorrect. i don't really think their d2 has been scummy, i don't think kuriyama is the correct choice for a d2 pivot-pocket if ydrasse+andante lurked d1 away as scum. being totally honest with myself a lot of the reason i kept getting nervous with ydrasse is because i really disliked andante. i felt Incredibly Right for just long enough to type it out and hit submit.

[the worst]

im kind of thinking about trusting duck to end the game because if duck/me flip t/t then ydra should be clear since she couldve accepted duck and ydra/shiki would end the game

let's see

so you're pretty likely to be town

and ydrasse very likely to be town or! partnered with the worst

so if the worst town then ydrasse town

so logic makes sense

but!

guess i would maybe like to be more confident in town!the worst than i am right now

as mafia!the worst does not leave us in a very good position

as ydrasse becomes very much not confirmed and we would no longer be able to miss and still need to find four towns with just one known

i agree, from a holistic/external pov, me being scum does kinda put us in the worst possible timeline. this can't really be mechanically corrected either. i'll just try to remain radiant.

[the worst]

i dont think scum are playing much at all this game

it's like all the townies are mingling and they mingled a lot early and it's too hard now for scum to really break into the core

I kinda agree tbf. My problem is that there's not nearly enough players I'm confident are town.

i guess we can try to kinda break this down.
without factoring in trusts, who do you think is town?;
having factored in trusts, who do you think is town?;
if you don't townread anyone who has left a trust un-answered, why not?

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

zero percent.

[the worst]

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

0%

dangit i thought i was funny

[Meuh]

% chance on meuh/the worst distancing?

anyone can answer this

though i guess maybe the worst and meuh weighing in wouldn't be all that helpful

0%

dangit i thought i was funny

great minds think alike

[the worst]

But it feels dismissive, questioning my motives behind it before yknow, the actual argument I made, which is what I'd expect people to focus on?

picking your case apart isn't a productive use of my time. it isn't a scumcase, it's a list of things which can look scummy if you bend yourself into a pretzel. :p
i don't really feel compelled to win these kinds of arguments, when i can just foucs on doing my thing.

"scummy or misguided or etc.?" is uh well I guess it includes the etc which is very nice of them. However Duckie's approach to responding to my post mostly comprises of throwing shade on me or really pushing the idea of either

this was principally directed at kuriyama who wasn't picking up what you were putting down. i wanted to ask them if they thought it was scummy or misguided, then realised other perspectives might be interesting so i added the "/anyone" and the "etc".

[chavela]

okie dokie

but how did any of this lead you to this:

I think like, holistically the greatest vector to loss atp would be scum in me/meuh, which is a v good vibe imo

let's leave the game together rn, then!

oh boy

phew

kind of a weird reaction if you think duckie!scum

trust proposals are scary regardless
and idk anymore i've kinda liked duckie's response to my post

like it feels like you've just given reasons you disliked the worst's response???

[Meuh]

Meuh

, if you had to decide right now, whom would you be willing to offer to trust the most?

Hmmmmmm I'm not quite sure, I haven't really thought about where to trust much
I do trust Chavela the most but I think trusting her would be a waste and not change anything really?
Kuriyama and Ydra probably won't ever accept an offer from me unless the pair is Kuri/Ydra or the worst/Ydra and I don't think putting my vote on either of them will actually prove anything
anything else just sounds too risky to warrant placing a trust really?
i'm not really planning on placing trust today, I don't see any options that would actually benefit town, nor do I plan on leaving today

[Kuriyama]

what is your read of duckie right now?

[chavela]

Kuri/Ydra

ydrasse would have immediately ejected with the worst if this were the case, yeah?

because it gets her out of the game and makes it look like she was trying to quick trust with kuriyama

like there are situations that scum might stay in the game, especially since mafia can react by leaving

but there is opportunity cost/players can't always be present et cetera

and it seems very unlikely ydrasse would stay if paired with kuriyama

[the worst]

i had the same paranoid moment earlier today then talked myself out of it for the same reason.

[chavela]

i had the same paranoid moment earlier today then talked myself out of it for the same reason.

like thinking about it there are possible kuriyama partners

but thinking about those at length right now feels like one of those enticing distractions i sometimes get trapped by

[chavela]

also ydrasse would have had to be the one to leave anyway if ydrasse/kuriyama

because while it would be possible that mafia!kuriyama would be framing ydrasse by not accepting and then leaving later with someone else, it likely would not be distinguishable enough from not framing

so optics wise ydrasse would want to leave

so very little to gain by staying

[chavela]

so optics wise ydrasse would want to leave

like out of the two of them after the trust offer

[Meuh]

okie dokie

but how did any of this lead you to this:

I think like, holistically the greatest vector to loss atp would be scum in me/meuh, which is a v good vibe imo

let's leave the game together rn, then!

oh boy

phew

kind of a weird reaction if you think duckie!scum

trust proposals are scary regardless
and idk anymore i've kinda liked duckie's response to my post

like it feels like you've just given reasons you disliked the worst's response???

oh i misread what you were asking of me, i thought you wanted me to point out things i disliked about the response

[Kuriyama]

well shiki if the team is ydra/kuri, then ydra is the only one of us that can leave as duckie is trusted to her, I can't exactly press leave on my own partner

[Kuriyama]

Meuh what's your read on duckie right now? Do you still want to leave with him?

[chavela]

god it's difficult to explain. the more i read ydrasse's posts the more i felt like, incorrect. i don't really think their d2 has been scummy, i don't think kuriyama is the correct choice for a d2 pivot-pocket if ydrasse+andante lurked d1 away as scum. being totally honest with myself a lot of the reason i kept getting nervous with ydrasse is because i really disliked andante. i felt Incredibly Right for just long enough to type it out and hit submit.

i guess it is like

the worry about day two activity makes sense

and can be extended to like, potential game ending danger from town trusts there

but i guess it is like, you're the one who acted on that though

and you were the one acting on the potential town pairing yesterday as well, though not going so far as to offer a trust yesterday

and if kuriyama is town and the poe they laid out is correct, i guess i would expect the mafias to be trying to do, something more?

unless that's what meuh is doing i guess?

[Kuriyama]

it's not actually possible for mafia in my poe to do anything in this game state though

[chavela]

well shiki if the team is ydra/kuri, then ydra is the only one of us that can leave as duckie is trusted to her, I can't exactly press leave on my own partner

sorry that's not what i meant communication hard

if staying in the game, the purpose would be to leave in a better situation then the one already present,

so that situation would likely involve finding a better pairing

but that better pairing would have to be a better pairing for ydrasse?

as ydrasse would be immediately suspicious if you found the better pairing and flipped mafia

so the upside of ydrasse staying is,

???

ya know

[Kuriyama]

if me/ydra are town, which I have every reason to believe she is as she has not left with duckie,

the mafia are looking at a game state with shiki(utr) and 3 townies in 5.

if mafia try to leave by trusting a townie, that townie gets elevated and can leave with shiki instead - ending the game.

if mafia try to convince shiki to leave with other mafia by trusting m->m, it outs the partner.

it is kind of like zugzwang in chess? they really have to get town to make a mistake if my gamestate read is correct.

[Kuriyama]

well shiki if the team is ydra/kuri, then ydra is the only one of us that can leave as duckie is trusted to her, I can't exactly press leave on my own partner

sorry that's not what i meant communication hard

if staying in the game, the purpose would be to leave in a better situation then the one already present,

so that situation would likely involve finding a better pairing

but that better pairing would have to be a better pairing for ydrasse?

as ydrasse would be immediately suspicious if you found the better pairing and flipped mafia

so the upside of ydrasse staying is,

???

ya know

mm yes this is true but I am not so fancy when I play mafia.

[chavela]

if me/ydra are town, which I have every reason to believe she is as she has not left with duckie,

the mafia are looking at a game state with shiki(utr) and 3 townies in 5.

if mafia try to leave by trusting a townie, that townie gets elevated and can leave with shiki instead - ending the game.

if mafia try to convince shiki to leave with other mafia by trusting m->m, it outs the partner.

it is kind of like zugzwang in chess? they really have to get town to make a mistake if my gamestate read is correct.

so we should try to find someone we trust more than the worst if possible

and have the worst offer a trust there

and have that person not accept it if town

then that person/me/you/ydrasse ?

does this make sense?