Open 847 - Trust Fall [Game Over]

[chavela]

if me/ydra are town, which I have every reason to believe she is as she has not left with duckie,

the mafia are looking at a game state with shiki(utr) and 3 townies in 5.

if mafia try to leave by trusting a townie, that townie gets elevated and can leave with shiki instead - ending the game.

if mafia try to convince shiki to leave with other mafia by trusting m->m, it outs the partner.

it is kind of like zugzwang in chess? they really have to get town to make a mistake if my gamestate read is correct.

so we should try to find someone we trust more than the worst if possible

and have the worst offer a trust there

and have that person not accept it if town

then that person/me/you/ydrasse ?

does this make sense?

hmm not really sure if it does

like mafia would just not accept

nevermind

[chavela]

which returns us to ydrasse town or partnered with the worst

so i guess it still makes more sense to me for any resolution to involve both or solely ydrasse

still kinda worried about you trusting the worst

like is ydrasse accepting the worst not preferable from your perspective?

or would you be too worried about my read of you not being absolutely certain?

[Kuriyama]

well I am more certain of my alignment than duckie's alignment so me leaving with ydra is strictly better than duckie leaving with her

if you would like me to stay I am happy to stay with you

[chavela]

well I am more certain of my alignment than duckie's alignment so me leaving with ydra is strictly better than duckie leaving with her

if you would like me to stay I am happy to stay with you

nono sorry

i mean

why do you think you offering the worst

is preferable to ydrasse accepting the worst?

is what i am asking?

[Kuriyama]

I guess if there is s in duckie/ydra it is better for me to maybe stay and figure it out with you rather than leave you trying to piece the puzzle together : )

[Kuriyama]

well I am more certain of my alignment than duckie's alignment so me leaving with ydra is strictly better than duckie leaving with her

if you would like me to stay I am happy to stay with you

nono sorry

i mean

why do you think you offering the worst

is preferable to ydrasse accepting the worst?

is what i am asking?

functionally I guess they are the same.

I guess I just feel worse if I told ydra!town to accept duckie and duckie turned out to be mafia - whereas if I offer duckie and he turns out to be scum I will not feel as bad.

[the worst]

i had the same paranoid moment earlier today then talked myself out of it for the same reason.

like thinking about it there are possible kuriyama partners

but thinking about those at length right now feels like one of those enticing distractions i sometimes get trapped by

agreed - i think kuri is aware that their best play is still to just leave as soon as they're trusted.

[the worst]

god it's difficult to explain. the more i read ydrasse's posts the more i felt like, incorrect. i don't really think their d2 has been scummy, i don't think kuriyama is the correct choice for a d2 pivot-pocket if ydrasse+andante lurked d1 away as scum. being totally honest with myself a lot of the reason i kept getting nervous with ydrasse is because i really disliked andante. i felt Incredibly Right for just long enough to type it out and hit submit.

i guess it is like

the worry about day two activity makes sense

and can be extended to like, potential game ending danger from town trusts there

but i guess it is like, you're the one who acted on that though

and you were the one acting on the potential town pairing yesterday as well, though not going so far as to offer a trust yesterday

and if kuriyama is town and the poe they laid out is correct, i guess i would expect the mafias to be trying to do, something more?

unless that's what meuh is doing i guess?

given my reads on hem and enchant, offering a trust yesterday would have been quite silly. i think ydrasse's trust was quite good but given the way my read on her was trending i think trusting her made a pretty significant impact on the gamestate.

i think there's two worlds for mafia if kuriyama is town: one in which they try to do more (meuh fits here; i honestly don't really feel like ydra does despite initial concerns) --- OR they feel they aren't able to effect it. bugspray and pavowski are examples of this that jump to mind. i think bugspray made a really clear attempt to sway EOD1 and i do think pav is trying to change consensus on him.

also think this game would be really difficult to sink one's teeth into, esp. if dealing with a scum player who struggles to produce pure-sounding content

[Meuh]

Meuh what's your read on duckie right now? Do you still want to leave with him?

I never really wanted to, the main reason it sounded appealing was that the idea of not having to worry about the game anymore and having duckie's alignment open
i guess in a way a pairing between the 2 of us would basically solve the game? But it's probably not worth the risk, especially since you guys aren't aware of my towniness

as for my read on them? I'm honestly fluctuating a lot, Duckie's posts just read like "hey, a townie could totally make this" kind of, but then if I look at it from a particular angle it all lines up perfectly to duckie scum
perhaps conf bias but duckie's EoD1 behaviour does feel like it has scum intentions

it seems like duckie's gonna be leaving before F4 though so ig i wouldn't hate leaving with them if it's happening without me anyways since i know i'm more likely to be town than anyone else
but thing is i don't see why you guys would have me/duckie leave as a pair before F4 when ydra/kuri/chav are all preferable for most?

but also duckie and i could leave without anyone's approval if we wanted

[chavela]

given my reads on hem and enchant, offering a trust yesterday would have been quite silly.

i mean, thus my reaction to the hypotheticals

and even though you didn't offer one, i feel like, as town,

you can see why it felt like you were doing

the

but maybe

thing that scums do sometimes

[chavela]

and if mafia, well yeah

[the worst]

but also duckie and i could leave without anyone's approval if we wanted

you'd need my approval, sorry.

given my reads on hem and enchant, offering a trust yesterday would have been quite silly.

i mean, thus my reaction to the hypotheticals

and even though you didn't offer one, i feel like, as town,

you can see why it felt like you were doing

the

but maybe

thing that scums do sometimes

sure, i can see where you're coming from. though i'd also point out that in the right circumstance, saying you want to do something with enough certainty is as conversationally interesting as actually doing the thing.
but there's also a very significant literal difference between talking about doing something, and actually doing it.
as for the outcome, i think our conversations at eod1 were much more interesting even though the outcome went as intended. which was the ideal outcome.

[Ydrasse]

what happens if i go rogue accept the duck is town kuri and chav pair up and game ends

anyone like this concept

[the worst]

i don't

hate

it but i'd rather play this phase to a point where chavela in particular is more comfortable than she currently is

[chavela]

what happens if i go rogue accept the duck is town kuri and chav pair up and game ends

anyone like this concept

am i allowed to give the unfair/results oriented answer of

i like it if the worst is town

[Ydrasse]

i like it if worst is town as well

:3

[Meuh]

Same!

the worst being town would be nice

[chavela]

it's like, things feel kinda right

but also feel too easy

and also there have been

things

and my ability to tell if the

things

mean anything at all is currently nonexistent

like kuriyama said would put the puzzle together with me if necessary and it currently feels like i am over here combining all of the puzzles and removing the pictures with acetone

[chavela]

but also feel too easy

like maybe in a sinister way

[Kuriyama]

what happens if i go rogue accept the duck is town kuri and chav pair up and game ends

anyone like this concept

this would be kind of lit

[Kuriyama]

like kuriyama said would put the puzzle together with me if necessary and it currently feels like i am over here combining all of the puzzles and removing the pictures with acetone

it would be challenging and fun to solve the game with you if one of ydra/duckie is mafia

[Pavowski]

maybe I'll throw it at one of those in my not-so-sure list

uh, why though

like why trust a not-so-sure when there are existing trust offers between those on your pretty sure list

To help sort?

I mean, we've all but confirmed you, and as a few people have pointed out today, trusting you does nothing to move things forward ... and feels exceedingly unlikely to be picked up besides, so ...

Somebody's got to make a call on somebody they're not sure about sooner or later, and if I'm going to guess wrong somewhere, I'd rather do it earlier than later

[the worst]

it's like, things feel kinda right

but also feel too easy

and also there have been

things

and my ability to tell if the

things

mean anything at all is currently nonexistent

like kuriyama said would put the puzzle together with me if necessary and it currently feels like i am over here combining all of the puzzles and removing the pictures with acetone

tbqh i think an underrated % of accurate solves feel "too easy" at the time

[Pavowski]

The longer this goes the more I get paranoid that TW's trust is designed to clear Ydra to get kuri to take that trust

Or tw is just scum after all

[Pavowski]

I haven't forgotten I said I'd trust somebody btw, the question is whether I want to follow chavs advice or if I actually want to sort