Large Normal 238 | Weiqi, Baduk, Go | Endgame

[April Ludgate]

Nah I don’t think so.

I think this game has been a TvT shit fest

Okay. Then respectfully, I think you are wrong, and will now continue to push for this wagon through usages of other's votes.

your TvT shitfest doesn't turn out not to be true with Frogster being scum. It just explains the reasoning for it.

If you think it's just a TvT shitfest for no reason, then I don't know what to say. I just think that's plain out wrong.

[April Ludgate]

Being wrong is okay, though, doesn't mean bad.

[April Ludgate]

@Tene - I'm with you. Let's hold the line with Frogster today.

I'm actively not sure about Eyes/Marill, and I do think Scorp is scum with Frog. I also think scum are trying to make Scorp the fall guy instead of Frog because they can change the gamestate with night kills.

Frogster today always. I'm with you thick and thin.

[April Ludgate]

@DV - Let's sheep Fire's Frog/Cape theory onto Frog today. A Frog scum flip makes for an easy Scum Scorp flip, and also we either get Scorp's vote bus or he awkwardly changes his position on Frogster. Either way, pushing Frogster is good for catching the Scorp.

[April Ludgate]

@Scorp - if you're town, I'm prolonging your fade to get someone you've said you scum read, please join me on Frog.

[April Ludgate]

Let's Avenge VPB-Cape town block by getting the one directly in the action.

[April Ludgate]

@VPB - Can you do this for your Cape read too?

My main reasons for thinking cape!town are:

- His "case" on me from D2 was so stream of consciousness and poorly formed, I have a hard time seeing scum type that up and being like "yes, this is persuasive!"
- He flipped to town reading me D2 at a point when pushing me would have been a much easier scum play and probably helped secure my lim. He similarly was not sold on Galron at E-2 to E-1 range. Again, I don't see much advantage to this as scum beyond a vague effort toward town points. (though if all three wagons at that point were town, maybe that's a good time to score town points?)
- He didn't really pump up the Nero/VP fight in the hood since early game, and has questioned us both pretty fairly I would say.


I don't think this is a slam dunk town case, but like I said before, PoE points much more to Nero here than Cape. I could be wrong, but Nero's arguments with me all game have been so bad faith it is truly difficult to see him as town. Clearing him on amorphous meta reads ain't really gonna do it for me.

On top of the deep Frogster scum read, Cape-VPB was also an incredibly strong town block.

They knew the other were town, and you could see it in their posts.

Frogster actively shattered this.


To believe Frogster is town, you have to believe:

VPB - Nero - Cape - Frogster Quad is T-T-T-T.

Frogster also pushed Malcolm and Tene as TvT.

That was Frogster pleasing both sides, or protecting Tene by appeasing to Malcolm.

I smelled that scummy scent in Malcolm, based on Frogster's posts.

I turned on my VPB town read because of Frogster's posts.

He has been actively doing things in the background that have effected this game.

My Malcom read might have been wrong, but my sniffer wasn't. I smelled scum, he was just rolling around with the frog.

Having an incorrect read is not the same as a terrible read.

correct. His reads are confirm biased and poorly reasoned.

What are your bulletpoint reasonings for FrogsterScum?

- He voted camped Yeet D1 forever until I started pushing him. This is very unusual to me because I just finished a game with Frogster where he was wild ass voting everyone in the game as town with tinfoil theories. Here, he is timid and afraid to move his vote around.
- The only pushes he has made all game have bene Fua/Enchant, Yeet, Galron and myself. I know I'm town. I know Yeet is town. I think it's highly likely Galron is town. Those are the safe bets, too. Not looking good.
- His reasoning around the Galron wagon yesterday does not hold up to scrutiny. (There is a fairly in depth analysis of this in my big post opening the day, and follow up questioning of Frogster today).

This is also a good bullet point scumFrog case from earlier in the game.

His early pushes were Enchant, Yeet, Galron, and VPB.

3 of these are town. Galron has a low chance of Group Scum.

This was a direct meta difference finding by VPB as well who had recently finished playing with a town Frogster.

Frogster is scum, my friends, and has been in the background a while, and look at his position now. He's even been flying underneath the radar and is actively LOSING interest in a wagon on them when the opposite should be true.

The stank on Malcolm was from Frog. We do this for VPB. We do this for Cape. We do this for Malcolm and Fire.

Frogster is scum, the case is strong, he fits with almost any combination of the remaining players.

Vote Frogster.

[Scorpious]

@Scorp - if you're town, I'm prolonging your fade to get someone you've said you scum read, please join me on Frog.

Sure, tene is still scum though.

VOTE: Frog

[April Ludgate]

@Scorp - if you're town, I'm prolonging your fade to get someone you've said you scum read, please join me on Frog.

Sure, tene is still scum though.

VOTE: Frog

Another reason to go Frog instead of Scorp in its own right, to allow a solve on Scorp/Tene further.

[DeasVail]

@DV - Let's sheep Fire's Frog/Cape theory onto Frog today. A Frog scum flip makes for an easy Scum Scorp flip, and also we either get Scorp's vote bus or he awkwardly changes his position on Frogster. Either way, pushing Frogster is good for catching the Scorp.

I’ll consider it.

I’ve always been a bit more uncertain on Frogster-scum and am scared that I’m somehow wrong elsewhere and that Frogster is town. But I acknowledge that Frogster and Scorp are pretty likely to both be scum here

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Eyes

I don’t see how Eyes is town.

[Frogsterking]

Okay April is doing something to try and get townread and I recognize it because it's something I used to do when I played on EpicMafia. Also, Azumarill's entrance probably isn't AI, and if it's AI in any direction it's NOT townie. I don't believe that April really thinks its townie like they say in 7857. And I think I saw Azumarill TMI on something.

Azumarill:

Day 6-
Math coming off really awkward today
Frogster seems to be the preferred lim for people today, slot doesn't look good.
Scorpius is looking towny compared to when I played against them as scum.
April looks townie so far
Other slots look meh, lots of talk from my predecessor.
I'm not willing to vote for StD today because of my result. I'll look for context but we can do better.

Some things don't add up here, like "...not willing to vote for StD today...I'll look for context but we can do better", and "Other slots look meh, lots of talk from my predecessor." StD isn't even getting pushed right now by like anyone, first of all, so why would town!Azumarill first thought be to go and start townsending StD?

And what "Other slots" is Azumarill referring to as being meh, and how is there "lots of talk"from Eyes? I think there is almost NO talk from Eyes.

I really hate the line on me a lot too, I'm the "preferred lim for people today" because it doesn't specify WHO the people preferring to lim me are. The fact that Azumarill even chose to include a line on me at all looks like mid-effort scum bread crumbing a read progression on me. And also this whole post looks like looking-for-reasons-to-read different players rather than actually getting reads.

Remember again in 7857 April claims to find this entrance townie.

This was the part from Azumarill I noticed that I thought might be TMI:

I'm taking a break from reading this monster odf a game for now but if anyone wants to converse then go ahead.

We have 2 lims before game

so I'd appreciate having conversation before further votes in any direction.

How does Azumarill know we have 2 lims left? THat looks like a TMI slip to me. The comments about "I'm taking a break reading this monster..." and "...I'd appreciate having a conversation before further votes in any direction" are potentially LAMIST by implying rereading the game and wanting to reflect on reads respectively. These comments from Azumarill also bring me to my other point, what I wanted to say about April and what I think April is doing to get townread.

April:
First of all April said something potentially LAMIST in a similar way as I pointed out above in 7829.

More interesting though April is trying to simulate townie reflection/second guessing a few times now I think. Here:

I should probably chill, I guess.

UNVOTE: Frog

make sure i'm not running into a game losing TownFrog misfade.

VOTE: Frogster

For VPB.

LOL what changed here? I think the unvote + vote is fake to make the April slot seem more dynamic and like they're reflecting on their read on me. I also think April tries to set up for it again:

+ I want to reevaluate Mega, and let them post for a bit, actually see where their head is at/what actions they take.

I think April could be setting up for a fake Azumarill readflip now where they pretend to scum read Azumarill, and then become very certain they're town (at this point maybe to get the momentum to sway a final needed hammer vote onto me.)

I know that April had the PT inno and that it's less likely on a probabilistic sense for the slot to flip scum, and I think there IS likely to be at least one traitor because it synergizes mechanically with the roles that have been flipped, and April on a behavioral level I'm starting to hardlock as being a traitor.

[tenebrousluminary]

This shitty distancing isn't going to work.

[Frogsterking]

This shitty distancing isn't going to work.

Math is the other mason claim

[tenebrousluminary]

No shit!

[April Ludgate]

LOL what changed here?

I think the unvote + vote is fake to make the April slot seem more dynamic and like they're reflecting on their read on me. I also think April tries to set up for it again:

this is all you need to see to see that Frogster's just grasping at straws, because Mathblade and I had a clear talk about how I wanted to chill, and not rush into it. I took a few days, reorganized some thoughts, and the same outcome.

[April Ludgate]

This shitty distancing isn't going to work.

Are you inferring that he's distancing with me?

[April Ludgate]

I am at the bottom of page 123 and

at that point

I think I have more or less developed reads that look like this:

Town reads: Nero, VP, Enchant, fire, STD, Deas

Almost-Town: Yeet, Malcolm

Can't decide: Scorp, Datisi, skitter, April, Cape

Scum leans: tene, frog

Note that these are mostly impressions although claims do play a part of it. Also names in each category are not necessarily ordered

Oh shit.

It might be Frog/Tene/Eyes, with Eyes as the traitor.

[April Ludgate]

I am starting to like this April person. They're not afraid to speak their mind and go against the tide. (Of I wanted to be really mean I'd have said this was one more slot Nero wanted to push. but I want to be fair and say that at the time April wasn't posting I personally could not have got any read on them, so fair is fair).

agghhhhh, this is super townie now that I know it's coming from A50.

[April Ludgate]

If my reads were perfect (hint: they're not) I would only lim between Scorpious, Datisi/Titus, tenebrousluminary, Frogsterking today.

Maybe I should make a stance now?

VOTE: Frogsterking

There you go.

Yeah, I think Eyes has heavy traitor potential.

Their reads were very solid if you go check their early ISO.

"if my reads were perfect"

Then it might be this, this could also mean there's an additional scum in the game.

Either way, this leads more credibility to the Frogster is scum.

[April Ludgate]

If my reads were perfect (hint: they're not) I would only lim between Scorpious, Datisi/Titus, tenebrousluminary, Frogsterking today.

Maybe I should make a stance now?

VOTE: Frogsterking

There you go.

VOTE: frogster

Will do this all day. Don't care.

VOTE: frogster

Titus jumping on here makes sense as a scum partner of Frog because the wagon gains momentum, if Frog goes down, on a Vote Count it would look anti partnery. Exactly the type of thing Titus would do.

[April Ludgate]

Is there anything I can say or do to stop this hideous wagon on VP from going through?

well the alternative is prob nero who you also townread

Or we can kill frog or tene

more

[April Ludgate]

You're all too noisy and I'm glad I managed to get this far, so I'll claim and let someone better at making connections interpret the info

I was a 4-shot follower. My results:

N1 STD (No Action)
N2 Nero (Protective)
N3 Deas (No Action)
N4 tene (No Action)

I was mainly trying to confirm slots that didn't look like they're going to get eliminated anytime soon. Unfortunately Nero got shot at night which is something I could not have controlled or predicted.

I also thought a goon was more likely to do the kill early on so I thought the STD result was a stronger clear than say that of Deas and Deas is still a bit stronger than tene, but I'll leave that to someone who knows better

Current readlist:

[*]Eyes without a face, [*]Nordrom/Mathblade
[*]Save The Dragons, [*]DeasVail, [*]tenebrousluminary
[*]Aristeia/April Ludgate, [*]fireisredsir, [*]skitter30/Galron, [*]Cape90
[*]Frogsterking, [*]Scorpious

None of this is anything that couldn't be proven. This also gives a little protection to possible partner Tene.

This forced Tene to need to claim VT if scum.

Hmm.

[April Ludgate]

It's possible Traitor Eyes is trying to tie TownTene to the scum team. Hmm, yeah, I think Eyes is most likely to be the traitor, so might be a Traitor Follower.

[April Ludgate]

Okay, before I call it, gonna do a reads list

Titus
Fire

Nero
Scorpious
Enchant
STD

Eyes without a face
DeasVail
Galron

_____

tenebrousluminary

Cape

Frogsterking
VP Baltar

Now, I think Cape has a similar amount of equity as scum as VPB/Frog, however, if VPB is scum, I don't think Cape is. If VPB is town, I think Cape is scum.

Tenebrous is almost coming down to POE scum.

I don't really see the point of Frogster saying that line he did as scum with VPB town.

There's likely a scum, 2 if we're living in the Cape scum world, and I think the lower on my 3 townie tiers they are, the more likely they are to be scum. I don't think it's Titus or Fire.

Currently my guess would be the DV slot.

this was me when I was actively in the deep Titus, which made my conclusions off, but the pools correct.

Cape/VPB ended up both being town.

Frogster/tene looking like possible scum. Which means 1 from every tier, which is solid positioning by scum.