Newbie 2093 | New Wave | Postgame

[ItalianoVD]

Hindsight is 20/20 and I would’ve been okay with either wagon on Day 1 as I mentioned, but yeah now knowing that Take was town, that hammer and prior E-1 vote was very head scratching for me once I read it and not something I feel happened organically.

Big Terp makes a great point about Aspho’s consciousness of the votes early on, but the lack of it when it mattered. I guess they didn’t want to hammer me for some reason or just wanted a claim, etc., especially given my scummy nature at the time (which would have been equal to Take at the time he was at E-1).

Yeah, I think we have to solve within these two slots.

[BigTerp]

Hindsight is 20/20 and I would’ve been okay with either wagon on Day 1 as I mentioned, but yeah now knowing that Take was town, that hammer and prior E-1 vote was very head scratching for me once I read it and not something I feel happened organically.

Big Terp makes a great point about Aspho’s consciousness of the votes early on, but the lack of it when it mattered.

I guess they didn’t want to hammer me for some reason or just wanted a claim, etc., especially given my scummy nature at the time (which would have been equal to Take at the time he was at E-1).

Yeah, I think we have to solve within these two slots.

Yeah, this further puts Aspho in the scum pile. They claimed they wanted you (Italiano) to be the elim over Abdbla but held off waiting for a claim. They got your claim, and when you claimed town PR, they had no choice but to move off. ZERO mention of Take being scummy in any way, but when the pressure was on Abdbla down to the wire, Aspho had no issue putting the "accidental" hammer on Take. Again, even though they never expressed scummy feels or vibes there. In fact, Aspho had Take as one of their top town reads here 316. And then 7 posts later, puts the "accidental" hammer on Take. Even if it was truly to put them to E-1, it makes no sense other than to try and get Take elim'd over abdbla.

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.01

abdbla (2):

ItalianoVD, Asphodelus

Asphodelus (2):

Val89, BigTerp

Not Voting (3):

abdbla, furtiveglance, Malakittens

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is May 1 at 4:30 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-05-01 16:30:00)

[Asphodelus]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

[BigTerp]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Go on..........

[abdbla]

Before at all going into the information presented, just know that it is completely without context. Anyways...

I think I should lead with the vote-chart, because to be honest, I can't get jack from it. Might be worthless, as far as information goes. Made by drawing an arrow once every time someone appears in a votecount voting for another person, with the arrow drawn from the votee to the voted.

Spoiler: vote-chart

There's some things that should be immediately obvious to people who have read the thread, but furtive hasn't actually voted anyone but me, I've practically only voted CPB since the start of the game, and Italiano, I and T02 as the centerpoints of scum attention, though with a fair bit of votes thrown Asph's way.

The interesting one, I think, is the wagon-chart. Made by drawing a line between each person who is voting for the same person each vote count, blue lines for the "not voting" wagon, and discounting the first votecount.

Spoiler: wagon-chart

Of interest here is how the network ends up forming. You might notice that there's a thin web of connections between everyone on the left side, but that's only because of the last vote count, where all the wagons were consolidated. Prior to that, TTTT had only ever voted on the same wagon as me (Corn) and Val only ever voted with Italiano (Both Asphodel and T02). As for TTTT/Malakittens, I'm fairly sure that the reason there is that they were inactive with their vote on Corn, similar to me. I'm not sure I can extend quite the same amount of grace to the two of them, and I already wasn't very keen on Val. This might be confirmation bias, so make of it what you will.

Why aren’t you voting for her if it’s incredibly scummy?

I'm having trouble seeing exactly what scum!Asph gets from this, and I wanted to do VCA first to see if anything useful shook out. The only way I see this working out for scum!Asph is if the scumpartner is incredibly confident in their ability to push to the endgame and win. It seems unlikely, considering they'd have to dodge the jailkeeper three(?) times. I've got a solve in mind that would make sense of it, but it's

very

farfetched.

First, we have to assume that we're actually in a goon x2 + jailkeeper game. Italiano, on the ropes and about to be lim'd, guesses at the tracker claim because it's a safeclaim 1/3rd of the time. It works. He claims to have been roleblocked to set up that it's actually tracker + jailkeeper game, with the eventual jailkeeper death strengthening that claim. Italiano coasts to victory on me being mislim'd while the jailkeeper doesn't want to target Italiano because he's the tracker.

It's the only way I can make sense of scum!Asph. Alternatively, if Terp has us played for fools, then they deserve to win, honestly. The claim that it's because we're a scumteam is insulting, particularly because of how stupid the move would be in that case.

[furtiveglance]

Right. Initial thoughts today:
1) Rip Corn, not too surprised about that kill.

2) Unfortunate way to end yesterday, but on the plus side we generated a lot of content which usually leads to better games for town.

3) The 'accidental' hammer is the elephant in the room. I had Asphodelus town/null before. I could potentially believe it was an accident, but mafia could make those kind of mistakes too. I don't want to feel like an idiot if we leave Aspho alive and she ends up being scum.

4) abdbla is scum and the partner is in the Take voters yesterday. I wanted abdbla yesterday and I still do.

VOTE: abdbla

[furtiveglance]

Ugh, that really sucked. I'm still super annoyed by the whole E-1 BS . I thought it was E-1 when I voted.

VOTE: abdbla

Shit happens

TBH

at least Val can move on to not tunneling anymore

so thats a positive bc thats prob a t/t tunnel

I don't see sufficient justification for this read.

[furtiveglance]

VOTE: Asphodelus

This also applies to BigTerp but they explained their vote in better detail and it wasn't just for the hammer - if abdbla/Take was town/town, why would Aspho scummily hammer to draw attention to herself? Surely the information we got yesterday was that abdbla was saved.

[furtiveglance]

Before at all going into the information presented, just know that it is completely without context. Anyways...

I think I should lead with the vote-chart, because to be honest, I can't get jack from it. Might be worthless, as far as information goes. Made by drawing an arrow once every time someone appears in a votecount voting for another person, with the arrow drawn from the votee to the voted.

Spoiler: vote-chart

There's some things that should be immediately obvious to people who have read the thread, but furtive hasn't actually voted anyone but me, I've practically only voted CPB since the start of the game, and Italiano, I and T02 as the centerpoints of scum attention, though with a fair bit of votes thrown Asph's way.

The interesting one, I think, is the wagon-chart. Made by drawing a line between each person who is voting for the same person each vote count, blue lines for the "not voting" wagon, and discounting the first votecount.

Spoiler: wagon-chart

Of interest here is how the network ends up forming. You might notice that there's a thin web of connections between everyone on the left side, but that's only because of the last vote count, where all the wagons were consolidated. Prior to that, TTTT had only ever voted on the same wagon as me (Corn) and Val only ever voted with Italiano (Both Asphodel and T02). As for TTTT/Malakittens, I'm fairly sure that the reason there is that they were inactive with their vote on Corn, similar to me. I'm not sure I can extend quite the same amount of grace to the two of them, and I already wasn't very keen on Val. This might be confirmation bias, so make of it what you will.

Why aren’t you voting for her if it’s incredibly scummy?

I'm having trouble seeing exactly what scum!Asph gets from this, and I wanted to do VCA first to see if anything useful shook out. The only way I see this working out for scum!Asph is if the scumpartner is incredibly confident in their ability to push to the endgame and win. It seems unlikely, considering they'd have to dodge the jailkeeper three(?) times. I've got a solve in mind that would make sense of it, but it's

very

farfetched.

First, we have to assume that we're actually in a goon x2 + jailkeeper game. Italiano, on the ropes and about to be lim'd, guesses at the tracker claim because it's a safeclaim 1/3rd of the time. It works. He claims to have been roleblocked to set up that it's actually tracker + jailkeeper game, with the eventual jailkeeper death strengthening that claim. Italiano coasts to victory on me being mislim'd while the jailkeeper doesn't want to target Italiano because he's the tracker.

It's the only way I can make sense of scum!Asph. Alternatively, if Terp has us played for fools, then they deserve to win, honestly. The claim that it's because we're a scumteam is insulting, particularly because of how stupid the move would be in that case.

I like the concept of vote count analysis, but it requires you to actually draw concrete conclusions that result in suspicions and votes. There seems to be a level of self-awareness about how meaningless these charts are. It looks really LAMIST and ethereal to me. Separately, the Jailkeeper vs 2 Goons theory might worry me a bit if I thought you were town, but I'll ignore it for now, I think it's just pointless to think about that now as we still have a miscondemn.
As for the 'I/we would never do that as scum, how stupid would that be?' argument, I've seen it a lot from scum and it's never convincing.

[Malakittens]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

hmmmmmm

and super hmmmmmmmmmm

at BigT

id be ok with a BigT & apb scum team

idk about asph

[ItalianoVD]

Before at all going into the information presented, just know that it is completely without context. Anyways...

I think I should lead with the vote-chart, because to be honest, I can't get jack from it. Might be worthless, as far as information goes. Made by drawing an arrow once every time someone appears in a votecount voting for another person, with the arrow drawn from the votee to the voted.

Spoiler: vote-chart

There's some things that should be immediately obvious to people who have read the thread, but furtive hasn't actually voted anyone but me, I've practically only voted CPB since the start of the game, and Italiano, I and T02 as the centerpoints of scum attention, though with a fair bit of votes thrown Asph's way.

The interesting one, I think, is the wagon-chart. Made by drawing a line between each person who is voting for the same person each vote count, blue lines for the "not voting" wagon, and discounting the first votecount.

Spoiler: wagon-chart

Of interest here is how the network ends up forming. You might notice that there's a thin web of connections between everyone on the left side, but that's only because of the last vote count, where all the wagons were consolidated. Prior to that, TTTT had only ever voted on the same wagon as me (Corn) and Val only ever voted with Italiano (Both Asphodel and T02). As for TTTT/Malakittens, I'm fairly sure that the reason there is that they were inactive with their vote on Corn, similar to me. I'm not sure I can extend quite the same amount of grace to the two of them, and I already wasn't very keen on Val. This might be confirmation bias, so make of it what you will.

Why aren’t you voting for her if it’s incredibly scummy?

I'm having trouble seeing exactly what scum!Asph gets from this, and I wanted to do VCA first to see if anything useful shook out. The only way I see this working out for scum!Asph is if the scumpartner is incredibly confident in their ability to push to the endgame and win. It seems unlikely, considering they'd have to dodge the jailkeeper three(?) times. I've got a solve in mind that would make sense of it, but it's

very

farfetched.

First, we have to assume that we're actually in a goon x2 + jailkeeper game. Italiano, on the ropes and about to be lim'd, guesses at the tracker claim because it's a safeclaim 1/3rd of the time. It works. He claims to have been roleblocked to set up that it's actually tracker + jailkeeper game, with the eventual jailkeeper death strengthening that claim. Italiano coasts to victory on me being mislim'd while the jailkeeper doesn't want to target Italiano because he's the tracker.

It's the only way I can make sense of scum!Asph. Alternatively, if Terp has us played for fools, then they deserve to win, honestly. The claim that it's because we're a scumteam is insulting, particularly because of how stupid the move would be in that case.

So, fmpov I have a strong reason to believe we are definitely not in the goon x2 setup and I assume neither do you.
I gotta give you props, I wouldn’t expect you to just rollover and die, but that ‘farfetched’ scenario is aptly named. We always have to look at what’s more probable over what’s possible. If my protection dies then I’m immediately dead after, if we haven’t killed scum by that time. And imo I don’t particularly need to track as we have enough information to find the scum and win the game, so if I’m blocked it shouldn’t matter. It might even be in places we don’t expect.

[BigTerp]

VOTE: Asphodelus

This also applies to BigTerp but they explained their vote in better detail and it wasn't just for the hammer - if abdbla/Take was town/town, why would Aspho scummily hammer to draw attention to herself? Surely the information we got yesterday was that abdbla was saved.

Agreed. It makes ZERO sense for Aspho to even vote Take to E-1, let alone hammer. They didn't have them as a scum read, ever, and it was already discussed why getting a second player to E-1 and forcing a second claim was a bad idea. The ONLY way it makes sense is that it was to save abdbla.

[BigTerp]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

hmmmmmm

and super hmmmmmmmmmm

at BigT

id be ok with a BigT & apb scum team

idk about asph

Please explain.

[BigTerp]

Hey, I can easily break that solve.

Still waiting. Why come in and make the above statement then disappear? It just screams scum!!!

[BigTerp]

I'd still like to hear more from Aspho, especially after their "I can easily break that solve" comment from yesterday. But, Italiano and Furtive make good points in regards to abdbla. We wanted an elim there day 1. It was wrecked with an Aspho "accidental" hammer. I still think we get the best info. from an abdbla elim today.

INTENT TO HAMMER ABDBLA

[ItalianoVD]

Something about the game state is making me uneasy. Not even sure I can put it into words at the moment, but something feels off.

Anyone else feel that way or is it just me?

[furtiveglance]

I can see why you think that after Take's flip. As for me, I wanted abdbla yesterday so I'm feeling more optimistic. There's potential for my day 1 reads of abdbla/Take/Val containing 2 scum being correct, but more likely I townread scum day 1 - I'm looking at Aspho or maybe Mala. The gut punch would be if you had lucked out with a fake Tracker claim or BigTerp's been having me on, but I don't think those are very likely.

[BigTerp]

Something about the game state is making me uneasy. Not even sure I can put it into words at the moment, but something feels off.

Anyone else feel that way or is it just me?

I don't really feel this at all. I feel like we got a lot of information from the hectic end of day 1, even though we did not elim the player the majority seemed to agree with eliminating. I think the Aspho "accidental" hammer was what the scum team came up with to save abdbla. Although it was pretty much a done deal (abdbla getting elim'd) and Aspho was, for the most part, in everyone's town pile that hammer seemed a bit unnecessary IMO. But maybe Aspho felt they had already stuck their neck out enough trying to take some heat off of abdbla here 447. But then they turn around and put their vote on abdbla here 508. A bit of bussing perhaps? But once it got hot and heavy on abdbla they "accidentally" hammered take.

Nothing else I can think of makes more sense than the above scenario. Aspho says they can "break that solve", but they've since dissapeared. Which seems a bit odd. From a scum prespective, I'd expect a bit more squirming, which is exactly what abdbla seems to be doing with their LAMIST type post that Italiano pointed out.

[BigTerp]

I can see why you think that after Take's flip. As for me, I wanted abdbla yesterday so I'm feeling more optimistic. There's potential for my day 1 reads of abdbla/Take/Val containing 2 scum being correct, but more likely I townread scum day 1 - I'm looking at Aspho or maybe Mala. The gut punch would be if you had lucked out with a fake Tracker claim or BigTerp's been having me on, but I don't think those are very likely.

What's your case on Val?

[furtiveglance]

I can see why you think that after Take's flip. As for me, I wanted abdbla yesterday so I'm feeling more optimistic. There's potential for my day 1 reads of abdbla/Take/Val containing 2 scum being correct, but more likely I townread scum day 1 - I'm looking at Aspho or maybe Mala. The gut punch would be if you had lucked out with a fake Tracker claim or BigTerp's been having me on, but I don't think those are very likely.

What's your case on Val?

In a vacuum has felt less scummy and grown into the game since yesterday. It's just that I'm pretty sure abdbla is scum and Val was on the other wagon.

[BigTerp]

I can see why you think that after Take's flip. As for me, I wanted abdbla yesterday so I'm feeling more optimistic. There's potential for my day 1 reads of abdbla/Take/Val containing 2 scum being correct, but more likely I townread scum day 1 - I'm looking at Aspho or maybe Mala. The gut punch would be if you had lucked out with a fake Tracker claim or BigTerp's been having me on, but I don't think those are very likely.

What's your case on Val?

In a vacuum has felt less scummy and grown into the game since yesterday.

It's just that I'm pretty sure abdbla is scum and Val was on the other wagon.

I agree with the bolded part. For the second part, Mala and Aspho where also on the other wagon. What are your thoughts on them?

[furtiveglance]

somehow Mala is less town that Aspho to me. Since replacing TTTT (who I was pretty sure was town), Mala has gradually withered away the townread. Voting for Take and saying I'll chill with my homie Val or something seemed a bit weird at the time, then they called Val/Take town/town after Take flipped. Mala could be pocketing Val.

Asphodelus had a really weird day 1 - felt almost too weird to be scum, + the accidental hammer yesterday. That hammer definitely wasn't calculated, and I think scum might be more concious of the VC. One of those where they could be scummy town or just scum playing in a really daring way.

Sorry if these thoughts seem confused. The main thing is flip abdbla - hopefully red, then look at the nightkill/assess things tomorrow. I'm pretty sure abdbla will flip scum because there was a lot of indirect opposition to them being voted yesterday, and no one's vocally defending them today.

[furtiveglance]

I can see why you think that after Take's flip. As for me, I wanted abdbla yesterday so I'm feeling more optimistic. There's potential for my day 1 reads of abdbla/Take/Val containing 2 scum being correct, but more likely I townread scum day 1 - I'm looking at Aspho or maybe Mala. The gut punch would be if you had lucked out with a fake Tracker claim or BigTerp's been having me on, but I don't think those are very likely.

What's your case on Val?

In a vacuum has felt less scummy and grown into the game since yesterday.

It's just that I'm pretty sure abdbla is scum and Val was on the other wagon.

I agree with the bolded part. For the second part, Mala and Aspho where also on the other wagon. What are your thoughts on them?

What do you think of Val/Mala/Aspho?

There's definitely scum in there - who is your best guess?

[BigTerp]

somehow Mala is less town that Aspho to me. Since replacing TTTT (who I was pretty sure was town), Mala has gradually withered away the townread. Voting for Take and saying I'll chill with my homie Val or something seemed a bit weird at the time, then they called Val/Take town/town after Take flipped. Mala could be pocketing Val.

Asphodelus had a really weird day 1 - felt almost too weird to be scum, + the accidental hammer yesterday. That hammer definitely wasn't calculated, and I think scum might be more concious of the VC. One of those where they could be scummy town or just scum playing in a really daring way.

Sorry if these thoughts seem confused. The main thing is flip abdbla - hopefully red, then look at the nightkill/assess things tomorrow. I'm pretty sure abdbla will flip scum because there was a lot of indirect opposition to them being voted yesterday, and no one's vocally defending them today.

Thanks for the response. Pretty good stuff here and I don't find it confusing.

That hammer definitely wasn't calculated, and I think scum might be more concious of the VC. One of those where they could be scummy town or just scum playing in a really daring way.

This same thought has been in the back of my mind as well. What if Aspho's vote was a true intentional hammer? I still find it REALLY odd that they wanted to get Take to E-1 though, for reasons I've already mentioned. So, either way, that vote on Take at the end seems really scummy to me.