Newbie 2093 | New Wave | Postgame

[BigTerp]

I am going to be away for the long weekend. I realize that the deadline for this gamedays lim will fall in that time period, and perhaps this is just vain, selfish hope to justify to myself stepping away at this point, I am apparently much more confident than others that we won't be going into an ELO tomorrow and we still have time.

Admittedly, recent posting, and in particular the middle part of 699 has made me slightly less sure, but it's come just a little bit too late for me, and it also comes amongst other things that still ping me I've avoided listing each and every time they've occurred to me in an attempt to keep the flow of information coming and avoid another T02 situation - but for an example, I wasn't too keen on the 'here is a complicated diagram related to the vote counts, trust me, Val looks bad from this', but when pushed to explain (and I note I had to be the one to do so) the response was 'oh. my bad, it doesn't', particularly when I'm not seeing how that mistake reasonably arose from the explanation given. I've also blown my freebie bad read on T02 this game.

I might have a chance (i hope I do!) to make another post before I switch off completely, but I need to pick the kids up now. Just in case I don't get a chance to come back to thread before Tuesday:

VOTE: abdbla

ABDBLA IS AT E-1. Next vote will hammer.

If abdbla flips red, who do you have as their scum partner? What if they flip green, where are you looking then?

[abdbla]

My issue with Terp though is I feel like they're smart enough to realize it, and it's not explicitly an OMGUS vote I have against them. It's more to the extent if I was playing on Scum, I'd try to get myself eliminated just as much

Just to address this for a moment, because it is a newbie game and what is or isn't OMGUS has come up a few times, but the justification you've given here explicitly

is

OMGUS.

If you say "If I was scum, I would vote for me because I am probably an easy mislim here" knowing you are town, and then follow that thought process with "X is therefore scum, because they voted for me", that is exactly what OMGUS is. The missing piece is that town!X doesn't know you are town.

I mean, I think the argument is rather that the chance of Terp missing the soft claim and continuing to push Asph is low, meaning that the other event that could've happened - Terp being scum and continuing the push for a hardclaim or a mislim - is high.

I don't really think this is the case, though? I missed that it was a softclaim, personally, and even if Terp is scum, what does he gain from a hardclaim? He could already figure out Asph was the jailkeeper by process of elimination, since they know what column we're in. A mislim, too, was very low chance, because Asph always had the option of hardclaim, which essentially clears her. I don't think it's particularly towntell, but it's certainly not scummy.

[BigTerp]

My issue with Terp though is I feel like they're smart enough to realize it, and it's not explicitly an OMGUS vote I have against them. It's more to the extent if I was playing on Scum, I'd try to get myself eliminated just as much

Just to address this for a moment, because it is a newbie game and what is or isn't OMGUS has come up a few times, but the justification you've given here explicitly

is

OMGUS.

If you say "If I was scum, I would vote for me because I am probably an easy mislim here" knowing you are town, and then follow that thought process with "X is therefore scum, because they voted for me", that is exactly what OMGUS is. The missing piece is that town!X doesn't know you are town.

I mean, I think the argument is rather that the chance of Terp missing the soft claim and continuing to push Asph is low, meaning that the other event that could've happened - Terp being scum and continuing the push for a hardclaim or a mislim - is high.

I don't really think this is the case, though? I missed that it was a softclaim, personally, and even if Terp is scum, what does he gain from a hardclaim? He could already figure out Asph was the jailkeeper by process of elimination, since they know what column we're in. A mislim, too, was very low chance, because Asph always had the option of hardclaim, which essentially clears her. I don't think it's particularly towntell, but it's certainly not scummy.

Well said.

I'm starting to soften my stance here on abdbla a bit. If they are scum, right now is the perfect opportunity to help gain steam with a wagon on myself and get a miselim. Instead, abdbla basically does the opposite above by making sense of my push on Ashp after the soft claim.. Ashp and Mala both have me as their top scum reads and a Mala vote seems forthcoming. I've been waiting on someone else to join in on that, especially if abdbla is scum. But things seem pretty stale, which hints to me that scum is currently happy with where things are. I need to do some reevaluating, but in the meantime........UNVOTE:

[BigTerp]

Just want to reiterate, before I'll be LA until tomorrow morning (EST), that the lack of movement, lack of discussion and overall quite nature this game has taken really has me thinking that Mafia are very comfortable with the current gamestate.

Mala and Furtive are gaining quite a bit of interest from me in that respect.

[Asphodelus]

Yeah, I'm surprised. What is going on.

[ItalianoVD]

It's fine. Let's just make it happen. Ash if you're on, let's just go ahead hammer.

VOTE: Abdbla

I'm not all the way comfortable, but maybe my mind is getting the best of me.

[ItalianoVD]

Or anyone for that matter.

[Asphodelus]

It's fine. Let's just make it happen. Ash if you're on, let's just go ahead hammer.

VOTE: Abdbla

I'm not all the way comfortable, but maybe my mind is getting the best of me.

VOTE: Abdbla

Good luck tonight.

[abdbla]

Well, that's the hammer, unless I miscounted.

Good luck tomorrow. No mislims, please.

[ItalianoVD]

Yeah I think it is.

Worst case scenario is that you’re town, but if so it would have solidified my thoughts on who actually is.

[ItalianoVD]

Yeah I think it is.

Worst case scenario is that you’re town, but if so it would have solidified my thoughts on who actually is.

…on who the scum actually is.

[Asphodelus]

Might wanna post it now, just in case.

[ItalianoVD]

Might wanna post it now, just in case.

True. I’ve been going back and forth with Val or Terp and Mala. I think that’s the scum team if Abd is town.

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.04

abdbla (4):

furtiveglance, Val89, ItalianoVD, Asphodelus

Not Voting (3):

abdbla, Malakittens, BigTerp

With 7 alive, it took 4 to eliminate.

[catboi]

abdbla

was eliminated Day 2.

He was a...

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie

[catboi]

It is now

Night 2

.

The deadline for Night 2 is

April 30

at

11:00 PM EST

. Submit night actions by PM, if applicable.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-04-30 23:00:00)

[/color]

[catboi]

ItalianoVD

died Night 2. He was a

Town Tracker

.

[catboi]

It is now Day 3.

Vote Count 3.00

Not Voting (5):

Asphodelus, BigTerp, furtiveglance, Malakittens, Val89

With 5 alive, it's 3 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is May 8 at 12:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-05-08 00:00:00)

[Asphodelus]

So we're at ELo, right?

[Asphodelus]

Well, for what it's worth, I'm convinced its BigTerp as one of the scum. The other I dont know.

[Malakittens]

It’s prob BT & FG.

I still dislike Bt’s push.
FG set off a newbie textbook scum-tell, but I don’t hold a lot of faith on weird stuff like that

I really don’t think it’s Val.
Maybe it’s my heart that doesn’t want it to be Val tho

[furtiveglance]

Initial thoughts: apologies to abdbla. I was convinced they were scum, haven't really seen a town/town split day 1 before and I based my entire read of the game on a false assumption. My bad on that one.
As for where we are now: It doesn't look great for us. I have to make one correct townread out of three players. The good news is that for today, I just have to push one correct scumread. I can see either town!BigTerp or town!Val. I can't see town!Malakittens.

Main thing to note is that we shouldn't quickvote, as scum can then hammer.

[furtiveglance]

Scumcase on Malakittens:
422 gives townreads on 3 players who all flipped town. I don't like that.

423 then calls Val 'prob town'. I have two theories. One is that Val is Mala's scumbuddy, and they're slipping them in with the other townreads, and the other is just a basic pocket. I've spoken about 548 a couple of times, it fits with the latter theory.

I don't like the self-awareness of 555.

586 reads fake to me, they obviously posted that to convey a new realisation, so it's sneakily LAMIST.

The latest post, 745, the comment about Val seems disingenuous and I don't like the persistent townread, especially as at this point your poe is literally 3 players. Why would a town player be so sure of a townread at this stage?

[furtiveglance]

Thoughts on BigTerp:

236 would imply that scum!Terp's partner is Val, for the awkward null read due to low post count.

Then again in 362 Val is their top townread.

What I don't like about BigTerp this game is they seemed slightly more independent of thought in the previous game we played together. For the most part they've shadowed my reads - e.g abdbla, but all the while keeping me at arm's length in their reads. Makes me think they're trying to make me want their townread.......

[furtiveglance]

Thoughts on Val:

629 and the panic about abdbla (town) self-hammering seems LAMIST.

Was initially against the abdbla vote then ended up going along with it. +scum after the flip.

In general the tone/style is different to 2088 in which Val was scum, but tonal indicators aren't always foolproof.