Newbie 2093 | New Wave | Postgame

[catboi]

Vote Count 3.04

Not Voting (5):

BigTerp, furtiveglance, Malakittens, TistDaniel, Val89

With 5 alive, it's 3 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 3 is May 10 at 12:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-05-10 00:00:00)

[BigTerp]

Hello everyone!

Let me start by expressing regret for everyone who's died.

T02, I was very sorry to see you go. Ash hit the nail right on the head in post 316 in which she said you were playing the same as last game. You were, and I was townreading you just as hard. If I'd been here, I would have been fighting that wagon.

Corn and abd: I was pushing you guys so hard last game, and I realize now that I was way overconfident. A lot of the stuff I was scumreading you for was just your normal playstyle. I did notice you getting significantly less scummy in this game, and I wouldn't have started pushing you until D3, but you still looked like the top 50% scummiest to me. So, I'm sorry about my overconfidence last game, and I'm sorry to say that I might be pushing you guys now if different people had been eliminated.

Italiano, sorry you were forced to claim. Given a chance, I'm sure you could have done much more to help town.

Ok, now that I've greeted the game, and expressed regret for everyone who's died, let me say that I've been following this game since the beginning, and I know that I'm throwing out scumtells, and I'm doing it because I think that saying hello wrong and expressing regret for making a mistake are damn crap reasons to kill someone.

In fact, behaviorist B.F. Skinner did these operant conditioning chamber experiments where he locked pigeons inside boxes, and basically he demonstrated that pigeons overestimate the impact of arbitrary actions on events outside of their control. This same observation holds true to humans: we develop these meaningless rituals like scumreading people who say hello wrong, and (because of our tendency to remember hits and forget misses) we become very confident in the power of these rituals.

Oh hey, we're doing another mathematical fallacy. Does anyone hear frikkin pigeons.

Yeah, and it was dumb last game too. Daniel was wrong

T02

- He's basically playing the same the other game when he was being attacked by trist and such for no reason.

Ash, I'll admit to being wrong about many things in the last game, but the bit about pigeons is right. It's not a mathematical fallacy: it's a well-replicated psychological finding. Oh, and if you're going to bring up my pigeons post in all future games, I suggest you actually *read* it. The post was written in *defense* of T02. I never attacked T02 last game because it was so obvious to me that he was town.

Furtive, Mala, BigTerp, Val, nice to meet you guys. I've been reading your games. I know some of you have been reading mine as well.

I obviously disagree with Mala on the remorse tell. Like, a lot. It's hard for me to remind myself that she's not deliberately trying to mislead town with that. But, ignoring that tell, Mala, and TTTT before her, have been some of the towniest players through this entire game.

My other major townread is Furtive. I've been townreading him for the entire game, and it's honestly somewhat baffling to me why other people seem to be scumreading him so much.

Val, on the other hand, I've been scumreading the entire game. Mala, can you talk a bit about why you're so sure that Val is town? I know you've already been asked this recently, but I hope you'll take the question a bit more seriously coming from a confirmed town power role, rather than your biggest scumread.

Nice!! I like how you've come in ready to go, and were already caught up on the game. Looking forward to some increased participation!!!

Interesting that your reads, are basically, the opposite of mine. Your slot is confirmed (all but) town, so your takes and reads are highly interesting to me (as they should be to everyone else). We each have a pool of 3 to decide amongst, you have 4 making your job a bit more difficult. With that, I'll ask the following questions....

What specifically do you find so town about Furtive?

What specifically do you find so town about Mala? You don't like the remorse tell, but other than that Mala is a strong town read for you? How do you feel about their FoS at me, pretty hard and for quite a while yet they vote Furtive early in day 3?

What specifically do you find so scum about Val? I mentioned before that their play could be seen as LAMIST and a bit of WIFOM, but to me it seems genuine and makes sense. I'm having trouble getting much of a scum read here, so that leads me to a Mala/Furtive scum team.

You didn't mention me in your opening post. What are your thoughts on my play this game?

[furtiveglance]

Welcome to the game Daniel. Are you seeing the elusive Bigterp/Val scumteam?! How does that fit with Malakittens' vote antics earlier?
What don't you like about my Mala/Terp solve?

[TistDaniel]

Apologies for a slow response. I've been doing some meta calculations.

To explain: I read games very slowly, because at the same time I read them, I'm taking notes and coding data. I'm completely up to date on 2093, but I've only coded twelve pages of Newbie 2090.

2090 had Terp, furtive, and TTTT, all as town, so I'm comparing the first twelve pages of that game to the way players have played in this one.

I also compared 2089 and 2091, which are the other two games (in addition to 2093) that I have fully coded at the moment, to get an idea of what was normal for average players.

furtive looks townier to me than he did in 2090, in which he was town. Terp looked scummy to me in 2090, and still looks scummy to me. Not the scummiest player in the game by far ... but now that half the players are dead, I'm comfortable calling him the second scummiest.

TTTT has looked very townie to me in both games. He got slightly scummier in this one, but not in a major way. I would still put him somewhere around 2nd place for most town player in the game. Mala has looked very slightly more scummy than TTTT did, but again, in the upper 50% town. If either one of them were in my previous game (2091), I would put them as the #1 town player.

Now I have been overconfident in these reads in the past. I pushed hard for the elimination of Corn and abd in 2091. It turned out that I was right about both of them. Then I started reading this game, and found that they were playing very similarly. Some players just naturally look townie to me, and others just naturally look scummy to me. So I might be wrong about this.

But I'm pretty confident about Val.

@furtive: You bring up Mala's vote antics. I presume you mean Mala's vote on you, which Ash said was up for "12ish hours" with no hammer. This strongly suggests that you're scum, because if you're not, both scum could have jumped on you immediately, and won the game. That said, they would have to jump on you simultaneously. If Val was scum and voted you after Mala, that pretty much outs Val as scum, and Mala could unvote and everyone hammers Val before Val's partner shows up. Val would need to wait until his partner was online and ready to hammer before casting a vote.

@Terp: I'm sorry, I'm going to have to make you wait on answers. My wife has just gotten home from work, and I need to help her break down and clean.

[TistDaniel]

Sorry I'm being so vague. I wasn't expecting a slot to open up this late in the game, so I didn't take the time to write a case out or anything.

Writing this from my phone now, and I won't be on my computer again tonight, so I'll be a bit more brief.

To answer some of the questions I didn't before:

@furtive: I'm open to the possibility of Mala being scum, but it seems unlikely to be. If she is scum, both she and TTTT are very good at hiding it. Though they are both experienced players, and if anyone can hide it well, they'd probably be the ones.

@Terp: I'm not going to get much more specific on furtive being town. He looks like town to me, he looks even more town than he did in the other game in which he was town, and the cases on him seem to be on very shaky ground, like the remorse tell I've already addressed. Can you tell me why I shouldn't be seeing him as town?

On you, I'm not sure. I was townreading you for the first half of the game, but now that so many others are dead, that's not really an option anymore. You're not a very scummy person, but at this point, pretty much everyone I saw as more likely to be scum has been killed.

I am not happy with Mala's reasoning, or with her lack of activity. I know she says a lack of activity is not lurking, but at the same time, I feel that more activity benefits town, and a lack of conversation benefits scum.

At the same time, I haven't seen anything from Mala to make me think scum. It's all NAI. Though that could be in part because I'm not seeing much from her at all. Her lack of activity has been addressed already.

I'm still going to have to make you all wait on a Val case though.

[Val89]

Well, this is a disappointment. We've gone from having a conftown holding a view I

thought

, albeit fairly strongly, was wrong to one I now

know

is wrong - the read on me. I hope you don't take this the wrong way, TistDaniel, but in that light I am disinclined to consider anything you may have to say to be of any real value. I don't doubt your sincerity, and I am glad you have at least been following along, but I've committed three weeks of my life to this game, including a very unpleasant first game-day, and I don't want to lose on D3 because of a single incorrect read by a replaced-in conftown.

If this turns out to be an error of judgement, then I am sorry; but I am confident in enough in a scum!Mala at this point to prove it to you. I might be falling victim to ego here, but I trust my own solve. Furtive/BigT aren't the team, and I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is.

VOTE: Malakittens

I won't be unvoting. If it IS BigT/furtive, then well played; and like I said, I apologies to the rest of the town, but I trust you will understand why I think, given the public statements by TistDaniel I can make the assumption that we are in serious danger of losing the game today anyhow if I don't take action to correct. Perhaps the case on me when it comes will be obviously wrong, and I can persuade him or the other VT (which I am 80% sure is BigT) they are wrong, but all it takes is for that case to come with a vote and it is game over.

I am hoping that by proving the existence of scum!Mala (which I AM sure enough at this point to risk everything on) that will be sufficient to get us through to tomorrow at least. I know in advance the partner, probably furtive, will do everything to try and convince the other remaining slots I am the partner and I am busing her here, but frankly, that suits me if I am going to be under suspicion anyway. That still makes her scum, and that gains us a nights worth of extra info and guarantees the game isn't lost today.

Fingers crossed I'm not fucking it all up, but at least if it is the fuck up is under my control.

[furtiveglance]

Wow. I don't like this post. That said I'm not sure how I'd react if I was scumread town at Elo - probably not like this.

[furtiveglance]

No quickhammer from me obviously.

[Val89]

I'll feel better about it once BigT has posted as well, but like I said, I'm pretty sure you two aren't the team anyway. I think it's you and Mala.

I've been trying to figure out which of the two of you are more likely to be the Roleblocker we know is out there, and I can't be sure. I would say it makes more sense for it to be Mala, but you came out at her pretty heavy in 746 and 747. If the team is Mala/BigT, then I am pretty sure BigT is the goon given what would have been an attempted bus yesterday when Aspho was also expressing doubts on BigT, and not much pushing in the other direction.

[Val89]

That said I'm not sure how I'd react if I was scumread town at Elo - probably not like this.

How would you react, out of interest? Just sit back and hope?

As you've identified, It's ELO. I can let the game ride on a series of events outside my control - that TistDan holds off voting me when he gets around to giving the case (remembering you encouraged his predecessor to vote first) and that the case is obviously wrong to the degree I can convince which ever of you or BigT is the other town to vote elsewhere, or be persuasive enough to show TistDan himself his error; because I know scum are obviously going to jump all over this opportunity - or I can bet it on something I am confident in - that Mala is scum, and ruling out BigT/FG might change the calculus.

I'm picking the later every single day. I hate being ELO mislim fodder; and I've voted myself in very recent past games to avoid being such. I might have done so yesterday if TistDan had come in then, but with it being today I can't take such drastic action in these circumstances, because it would be literally against the rules, but this is an action I can take.

[Malakittens]

…

[Malakittens]

VOTE: FG

Val you’re voting wrong, but I’m all out of fight today.

Been busy since I started work and I still got paperwork to finish before I can really give any time to this game

But obv majorly of the player list is scum reading me so it’s a loss cause

And the town isn’t listening to the confirmed town so

[Malakittens]

UNVOTE: FG

Maybe I’ll sleep on it and in the morning I’ll devote

[Malakittens]

And the fuck up is in your control if you unvote

As for trying to find the rb’er over the goin at

This point we went scum

Which isn’t me

It’s weird

[Val89]

I'm not unvoting. My point is that if town is going to lose today I would rather it be on my terms, having being wrong about BigT/furtive not being a pair, and not because someone else who has just replaced in and, despite being conftown, has proven themselves to me to not have a proper handle on the game is wrong about something I know with certainty.

I know nobody can take my word for it, but I know I am town, and therefore TistDan is wrong; and I have to trust myself over someone I know is wrong even if they are conftown. If it wasn't an ELO today, it might be different and I could wait and try and bring TistDan round, but it is and this is where we are. I'm going to have to convince him to vote you today and hopefully sort me correctly tomorrow with more info or else hope your buddy still wants to bus you as it is.

I figure we will find out if I am wrong soon enough anyhow.

[BigTerp]

I'm on mobile and will be in bed shortly, but I'm ready to vote Mala as well. I think Daniel's reads are all wrong. They are literally the opposite of my own.

I'll give a more detailed response in the morning. Just wanted to check in quickly this evening before bed

[furtiveglance]

Also on mobile. We have 5 days, I'd like to hear TistDaniel's thoughts on Val. I need to rexamine the Mala/Val scenario.

[TistDaniel]

So both of the people I'm scumreading think I'm wrong. No surprise there. Just think it's kinda weird that they've decided to vote for the same person. You guys must be very certain that Mala is scum, since a miselim hammer would be so easy for scum to pull off, especially with a wagon of two.

[TistDaniel]

Actually seems like Mala is now the only person not thinking about voting Mala right now. Would her partner be bussing her at ELO?

[Val89]

1:17am; 1:21am. That looks pretty clear and unambiguous to me.

Anyone going to argue seriously that they are just turning out the opportunity to win here, or have I proven my point?

[Nashville Dreams]

Or proved you are scum with one of BigT & FG

[catboi]

Please be sure to post from the correct account.

[Malakittens]

I’m sorry ok
I REALIZED IT AS I HIT ENTER THAT IT WAS SILVER

VOTE: VAL

PROb gonna say out on the limb that’s vals gonna flip goon at endgame or if he gets limmed td

[Malakittens]

Or proved you are scum with one of BigT & FG

[furtiveglance]

Or proved you are scum with one of BigT & FG

Hmmm.....I'm slightly suspicious of Nashville Dreams...they've really taken coasting to the max this game, 1 post in 35 pages....