Open 850: Democrabilities (Postgame)

[furtiveglance]

Reckon a wagon on Alianna would have a much better chance of succeeding than one on Titus personally.

I would prefer Radical Rat.

[furtiveglance]

I've been thinking about what I'd do if I was scum, and I think it's reasonable to assume scum wouldn't want to openly pair on day 1. This theory assumes mafia implementing the old 'one on, one off' distribution.

So assuming scum wouldn't both be either on No Elim or both be voting for me in the ability phase, it would mean Dunnstral/Radical Rat/Titus has one mafia maximum (but also one mafia minimum).

This effectively clears Titus in my eyes, because Dunnstral and Radical Rat are both scummier.

Does this make sense to anyone, or is it too theoretical?

[MalcolmTucker]

I've been thinking about what I'd do if I was scum, and I think it's reasonable to assume scum wouldn't want to openly pair on day 1. This theory assumes mafia implementing the old 'one on, one off' distribution.

So assuming scum wouldn't both be either on No Elim or both be voting for me in the ability phase, it would mean Dunnstral/Radical Rat/Titus has one mafia maximum (but also one mafia minimum).

This effectively clears Titus in my eyes, because Dunnstral and Radical Rat are both scummier.

Does this make sense to anyone, or is it too theoretical?

No I get what you mean here. It's possible, say, a bold Titus/Dunnstral team could just blindly push for a double elimination to try and get a firm grip on the game early on but it seems very unlikely and incredibly risky. I agree a split to some degree is likely. Another possible feint is both mafia sit off the double elimination wagon to seem clean but again unsure how wise that would be for them...mafia would've surely at least teased the double elim you'd think to see how it floated.

I don't think Titus is mafia but also more town-leaning RR at the moment, so paradoxically that wouldn't necessarily clear Titus for me, but I really think it would be a lazy lim if it goes ahead.

[furtiveglance]

I'm trying to consider where both scum would be if they were both on the No Elim. Alianna/Cat makes no sense to me. I think the No Elim does look clean, like I said previously Cat.Jpeg is the scummiest on it for me. If I try to primitively gamesolve assuming my idea of normal scum play, Cat/RR aren't paired after Cat voted RR when there is a serious possibility of them going today.
So if I assume Goldfish/Flea/Malcolm/Titus all town, and no bussing, and no open pairing on the same ability phase wagon, it basically leaves Cat.Jpeg/Dunnstral OR Alianna/Radical Rat OR Alianna/Dunnstral. 3 pairings, 2 of which include Alianna. Can you find any problems with this (assuming everything I'm assuming for the purposes of this experiment).

[Radical Rat]

Also you should probably acknowledge question above RR from Alianna/Furtive.

I already did, but if it needs said again, I never said Alianna was scummy, and I also was not treating them as conftown.

[furtiveglance]

I'm dismissing Cat.Jpeg/Dunnstral. They've voted each other at times and don't seem paired. I actually don't like any solve including Cat.Jpeg anymore. They have both of their possible partners (RR and Dunnstral) as scum, which seems risky. I'm struggling to see a town!Alianna game now. I know I townread her previously.

[MalcolmTucker]

I'm trying to consider where both scum would be if they were both on the No Elim. Alianna/Cat makes no sense to me. I think the No Elim does look clean, like I said previously Cat.Jpeg is the scummiest on it for me. If I try to primitively gamesolve assuming my idea of normal scum play, Cat/RR aren't paired after Cat voted RR when there is a serious possibility of them going today.
So if I assume Goldfish/Flea/Malcolm/Titus all town, and no bussing, and no open pairing on the same ability phase wagon, it basically leaves Cat.Jpeg/Dunnstral OR Alianna/Radical Rat OR Alianna/Dunnstral. 3 pairings, 2 of which include Alianna. Can you find any problems with this (assuming everything I'm assuming for the purposes of this experiment).

Logic seems pretty solid to me, and by this I'd say Alianna is our best shot at catching mafia here this turn.

[furtiveglance]

I'll just put forward my very primitive (and probably wrong) current view of the game for people to take a look at. It features Alianna and Radical Rat.

Firstly, Alianna:
137 agrees with me that RR is sus in general terms - "I'm with you".
299 has RR firmly in null. This is where you might put your scum partner.
410 accuses RR of TMI, a very serious accusation.
411 on the other hand just wants to hear more from RR about it, no FOS, no vote.

Now, Radical Rat:
281 has Alianna in null, which is where Alianna then puts RR in 299.
418 doubles down on "dead null".
454 reiterates how null Alianna is.

These aren't individual scumcases - just highlighted interactions that I find 'sus'.

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think Alianna and Radical are teammates here based on that. Radical's reads would implicate them together, but strikes me as unlikely Alianna would be agreeing their mafia teammate is suspect that early in the game unless it was an over-eager attempt at creating some distance between the two of them.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think Alianna's approach to Radical could very much read as hedgy mafia trying to implicate town as scum but not necessarily having the confidence to go all-in with the read. Technically they put them in "null" in their readslist but they had two points of contention with them as well which hardly comes across as being an endorsement.

[furtiveglance]

I'm moving my vote, so I'll give a quick scumcase on Alianna.

Initial posting is some mech talk, NAI in my book.

146 and 147 are the first posts that catch my eye - asking questions is fine, it's just easy for scum to do in order to look busy.

153 gives blanket null reads on everyone. But then 177 agrees with my crazed posting about Titus being 'incredibly scummy'.

299 is a big readslist with 2 scumreads. One is Titus - who they've been consistent with (e.g. 196), but the other one is me. They say we're both sus but not paired, which feels like too much of a 'gimme' at that point in the game - to point out how Titus and I clearly weren't paired scum.

363 I think is Alianna's scummiest post so far. I don't like the phrase "This is explicitly not an OMGUS vote". It smacks of self-awareness.

443 is unlikely to come from town. I don't like it at all because it seems to imply second thoughts on their scumread of Titus, but Alianna doesn't unvote. 445 is sitting on the fence and self-justifying.

(I hope I'm not scumreading town!Alianna 2 games running...)

UNVOTE: Radical Rat

VOTE: Alianna

[furtiveglance]

I don't think Alianna and Radical are teammates here based on that. Radical's reads would implicate them together, but strikes me as unlikely Alianna would be agreeing their mafia teammate is suspect that early in the game unless it was an over-eager attempt at creating some distance between the two of them.

Alianna/Dunnstral then?

[MalcolmTucker]

I don't think Alianna and Radical are teammates here based on that. Radical's reads would implicate them together, but strikes me as unlikely Alianna would be agreeing their mafia teammate is suspect that early in the game unless it was an over-eager attempt at creating some distance between the two of them.

Alianna/Dunnstral then?

Possibly, but I'm always wary to believe I've anywhere near solved the game early on. But I read both as quite scummy and would fundamentally be content to eliminate either of them here. However, for reasons you've outlined I think Alianna is our best shot at catching mafia here.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

Atm I townread Dunnstral and Alianna is null with the a possible scumlean. But if Titus is town this doesn't look good for either of them.

[MalcolmTucker]

Atm I townread Dunnstral and Alianna is null with the a possible scumlean. But if Titus is town this doesn't look good for either of them.

Are you planning to join Alianna bandwagon or do you still prefer Titus? Really feel like Titus is town here.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

I prefer Titus but if someone can convince me they are town Alianna would be the wagon I'd switch too over RR.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

As I said if Titus is scum I think Alianna is town, but if Titus is town I think Alianna is probscum.

[Cat.Jpeg]

I'm moving my vote, so I'll give a quick scumcase on Alianna.

Initial posting is some mech talk, NAI in my book.

146 and 147 are the first posts that catch my eye - asking questions is fine, it's just easy for scum to do in order to look busy.

153 gives blanket null reads on everyone. But then 177 agrees with my crazed posting about Titus being 'incredibly scummy'.

299 is a big readslist with 2 scumreads. One is Titus - who they've been consistent with (e.g. 196), but the other one is me. They say we're both sus but not paired, which feels like too much of a 'gimme' at that point in the game - to point out how Titus and I clearly weren't paired scum.

363 I think is Alianna's scummiest post so far. I don't like the phrase "This is explicitly not an OMGUS vote". It smacks of self-awareness.

443 is unlikely to come from town. I don't like it at all because it seems to imply second thoughts on their scumread of Titus, but Alianna doesn't unvote. 445 is sitting on the fence and self-justifying.

(I hope I'm not scumreading town!Alianna 2 games running...)

UNVOTE: Radical Rat

VOTE: Alianna

I think Alianna is an okay vote for today but I don’t think 363 is a scummy post. I think it’s also a bit weird you townread the early posts before but now scum read them. I will say I don’t like 443 but a lot of the points in this are flimsy like you already decided alianna was scum and we’re just finding things to affirm that. I think the case on Alianna is a lot smaller than you are pretending it is.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

The problem is I've seen Alianna play like this as town and get scumread for it. Some of her stuff is genuinely sus (which is why I scumlean is) but some of the things ppl are scumreading her for look nai.

[furtiveglance]

My mind is made up for today. I will discuss this matter no further.

[GoldfishFromTheMoon]

Ahh furtive, I know we be friends but that is really not a great attitude.

[MalcolmTucker]

We do need to reach a consensus soon though, don't we? In all fairness to Furtive not as if he's been dead-set on Alianna for the whole day or been unwilling to explore several options.

[Alianna]

I'm moving my vote, so I'll give a quick scumcase on Alianna.

Initial posting is some mech talk, NAI in my book.

146 and 147 are the first posts that catch my eye - asking questions is fine, it's just easy for scum to do in order to look busy.

153 gives blanket null reads on everyone. But then 177 agrees with my crazed posting about Titus being 'incredibly scummy'.

299 is a big readslist with 2 scumreads. One is Titus - who they've been consistent with (e.g. 196), but the other one is me. They say we're both sus but not paired, which feels like too much of a 'gimme' at that point in the game - to point out how Titus and I clearly weren't paired scum.

363 I think is Alianna's scummiest post so far. I don't like the phrase "This is explicitly not an OMGUS vote". It smacks of self-awareness.

443 is unlikely to come from town. I don't like it at all because it seems to imply second thoughts on their scumread of Titus, but Alianna doesn't unvote. 445 is sitting on the fence and self-justifying.

(I hope I'm not scumreading town!Alianna 2 games running...)

UNVOTE: Radical Rat

VOTE: Alianna

At risk of digging myself further into this hole, here's a quick anti-scumcase on Alianna.

146-147 - This isn't evidence for why I'm scum. Yes, it would be convenient for me to do that, but you also admitted that asking questions is fine. So this is really just padding.

153-177 - Before 153, a whole lot of nothing happened. Things picked up at approximately 167 when you expressed suspicion of RR and Titus. In the next ten posts, Dunnstral accused you of being disingenuous, Titus posted the giant red flag that is 173, and then you started posting crazedly. "Agreed with all of this" was lazy phrasing on my part, but I did think Dunnstral misinterpreted you and 173 was manipulative. It would be weird if my reads didn't change over that period.

No comment on 299.

363 - As I said in 291, this game has been rife with misunderstandings, so I thought I should clarify that my vote on Titus had nothing to do with the fact that she voted for me.
Yes, it was self-aware, but I’m self-aware in general. For example, I know that making this defense post probably won’t convince anyone I’m town, I just don’t really care.
Refer back to Newbie 2090. TTTT thought my entrance looked a bit contrived, which it was. I was aware of this fact and admitted to it. You actually pointed out that town can be self-aware as well as mafia, and you were right. I was town. You should not be scumreading me for self-awareness.

443 just sucked.

My vote is still on Titus because I think she and RR are the most likely here to flip scum and her wagon has more support. I wouldn’t mind voting for either and might still consider switching in the next 6 hours (won’t be on again until the deadline has passed, if I’m still alive).

[furtiveglance]

Ahh furtive, I know we be friends but that is really not a great attitude.

What I mean is...my vote is cast. alea iacta est. and I won't change my vote before the deadline - under a day's time.

[furtiveglance]

I think I'm fairly confident that Flea/Malcolm/Goldfish/Titus are all town, so voting in Alianna/Cat/Dunnstral/Radical Rat will probably result in good things.