UK Eastermeet 2022 Invitational (Game over!)


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Post Post #450 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 9:29 am

Post by cpol »

You got my intention wrong there Posite. I was saying that I'd moved on from the idea of there ever being a town potato vendor in the game. It seemed pretty clear cut to me they were scum (if they exist), and so was wondering why Fenchurch was still asking about it. Hence the come forward
now
.
However, scum potato vendor is still possible, and very likely.
I also said that I could see it being some kind of inventor thing.

So in short, in my head the potato vendor is like 90% mafia and I could not see why Fenchurch thought otherwise.

The 'keep the claim safe so that scum don't know I'm not a power role' play hadn't crossed my mind. At this point it's kinda moot though.
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Post Post #451 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 9:39 am

Post by Postie »

Ah, gotcha.

@CDB
- Can we get another vote count?
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Post Post #452 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 10:22 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Vote Count


Cogito Ergo Sum (2)
: Postie, Nexus
Nexus (1):
Fenchurch
Primate (1):
cpol

Not voting (4):
Cogito Ergo Sum, Porochaz, Primate, Wenna

Time until deadline: (expired on 2022-05-16 09:00:00)
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Post Post #453 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 3:47 pm

Post by Primate »

In post 447, cpol wrote:
In post 435, Primate wrote:
In post 428, cpol wrote:Others have when asked? Or at least I've seen Menno explained the hammer by saying they were zooted, Nexus saying they aren't that invested because they are a VT, Poro saying that they weren't bothered by D1 because of the Consul/potato stuff and Wenna saying that they aren't super sure what to do in forum mafia. So I can't see why a similar level of explanation could be asked of you. Everyone there has been willing to put some kind of justification in.
Not posting is not posting. What's the point making an excuse, the reason's the same, there were other things you enjoyed doing more (or needed to do more) than playing forum mafia in this specific game at that time.
So am I right in assuming that you just had a general apathy towards the game? And as a 'town' player, you were either happy with the direction that the game was taking, or simply not following it?
Depends what you mean by not following (I wasn't following closely), but mainly I didn't care about the result as much as I should have. I didn't really want to say that because I think it's pretty disrespectful to the mod. There's a reason I stopped playing forum mafia. I thought I might be ok because I played a game in 2020 and that went fine, but whoops, guess not.
In post 439, Postie wrote:Okay Primate help me out
In post 84, Primate wrote:My townreads atm are Menno and Fenchurch.
In post 286, Primate wrote:Poro is scummy.
In post 324, Primate wrote:Don't like the poro/ces grouping.
In post 324, Primate wrote:
In post 301, Postie wrote:
@Primate
- who's your biggest scumread? Why aren't you voting anyone?
Don't know, and I'm bad at mafia. Probably Poro or Menno.
Have any of these reads changed
Why or why not
(Excluding Menno obviously)
Do you have an explanation on your Poro read? Or at least posts you didn't like you can link?
In post 406, Primate wrote:
In post 405, cpol wrote:Are you up for a mass claim
Yep. I actively think we should do it.
What was your thinking here?
Sure. Yes they've changed. The Poro/Ces grouping is me criticising Klick for seeming like he's lining up eliminations, not saying I don't like them as a pair (I have no reason to see them as a pair). I thought/think Ces was/is town, so it seemed like he might be preparing for a miselimination of poro after CES turned up town (which isn't the way the day went.)

Poro - I think dipping out because of the consul mechanic is just a convenient excuse and they didn't want to post. Early menno vote in #173 is pretty dull and the later #271 is just drifting, and menno/postie/lurkers in #271 feels an uninspiring list. I think I also got a strongtown read on you from the early d1 discussion and didn't really get why other people didn't. That was why I thought it at the time and it was more just vibes which is why I said I should solidify it. As to whether I still hold it, I guess yes? My initial read of #388 was that it seemed pretty town but honestly it doesn't really. There's also a bit of weirdness in #173 I missed previously where Poro says the Fenchurch/Postie discussion makes him feel bad about both of them, but disagrees more with Fenchurch, then Fos's postie instead of Fenchurch
@Poro, can you explain what the thought behind that last bit was?


Fenchurch - Yes it's changed. I don't really know why, I just don't feel it anymore. I think it's probably just the argument with you then the menno tunnelling d2, rather than exploring alternate options. It's weird though because I still find myself agreeing with them a bunch. If there was scum on the Menno wagon, imho it's Fenchurch (or possibly cpol but cpol wasn't actually pushing it).

About the massclaim. It's possibly because I've not been as invested and it's hypocritical for me to say, but the town generally seems a bit lazy. D1 went the way d1 did, and that was mine and menno's fault (although I don't really feel any blame for that). D2 we ended up going for menno, which was the default, and d3 we seemed to be going for CES, another default. Which isn't necessarily bad, if CES is actually scum, but it's just a bit weird. I do think we have 3 scum, and I think it'd be a shame if we miseliminated, lost, and never massclaimed. And personally my hope was that a massclaim would open up some new info that we could use to shake things up a bit, which hasn't really happened.

Unrelated to any of this. I said Fenchurch/Wenna in a previous post. That was based primarily on what seemed content by wenna (#381+398, last like #400, switch last line #414), but it does kind make sense, but when I posted that I thought it was genuinely suspicious and now I think it's just potential scumbuddy moves.
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Post Post #454 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 8:29 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

Nexus
- what is your read on Wenna?

You say you're disengaged from the game because you are a VT. Am I right in thinking you dislike playing scum? Would that also make you disengaged from the game?
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Post Post #455 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 8:31 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

In post 453, Primate wrote:It's possibly because I've not been as invested and it's hypocritical for me to say, but the town generally seems a bit lazy.
As someone who
is
invested, feels disappointed that we've had 2 town executions, sad that I was wrong on Menno, frustrated that we might be cruising to a loss... yes, it is hypocritical :P
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Post Post #456 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 8:54 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

Actually I don't really feel we might be cruising to a loss. It's that even if we pick correctly today, presumably we can't make any more mistakes for the rest of the game.
That's
frustrating.
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Post Post #457 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 10:15 pm

Post by Primate »

In post 455, Fenchurch wrote:
In post 453, Primate wrote:It's possibly because I've not been as invested and it's hypocritical for me to say, but the town generally seems a bit lazy.
As someone who
is
invested, feels disappointed that we've had 2 town executions, sad that I was wrong on Menno, frustrated that we might be cruising to a loss... yes, it is hypocritical :P
It wasn't really meant as a criticism, I'm more self aware than that. It's more like we've only 3 plausible vote wagons (bella/menno/ces) total (you could also count some pressure towards cpol at points), which is a bit weird and I was wondering why that might be the case. I think the most plausible explanation is just it's difficult to get wagons going with a lot of the living players less active and not making cases to get people on side though so I'm not sure it's as relevant. It mostly ties into whether I think the fact that you and CES kind of tunnelled menno d2 is anything. I do get why you would do that if you geniunely thought they were scum, but given the result of the day I think it's scummy, especially because as scum it would be really easy for you to just decide that you think the quickhammer is super scummy and take it as written that menno is scum. A bit like the dogmatism you were doing d1 with the potatoes and cpol. The same applies to CES of course, although CES takes more time getting there and interrogates menno about it.
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Post Post #458 (ISO) » Tue May 10, 2022 10:30 pm

Post by Primate »

Unrelated but the candles could be living non-vanilla roles, although I'm not sure what that would add to the game or our play, especially at this point.
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Post Post #459 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 12:43 am

Post by Wenna »

VOTE: CES
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Post Post #460 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 1:16 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 445, Nexus wrote:It also makes sense given that CES was the only real counterwagon to the VT elimination yesterday.
It would obviously be narratively satisfying if that was the case, but I'm pretty sure that scenario does not in fact make more sense than 2 wagons on town.

It kinda feels too brazen for it to be both Nexus and Wenna. I'm not sure who I'd rather execute out of the two. Nexus' push on me is unquestionably worse but Wenna's read on Fenchurch feels very much like a "The Emperor has no Clothes" situation. Could be Wenna with Fenchurch, maybe? Not sure it's actually worth thinking about at this stage because I'm not sure we can win here if either Nexus or Wenna are town.
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Post Post #461 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 1:16 am

Post by Wenna »

In post 453, Primate wrote:Unrelated to any of this. I said Fenchurch/Wenna in a previous post. That was based primarily on what seemed content by wenna (#381+398, last like #400, switch last line #414), but it does kind make sense, but when I posted that I thought it was genuinely suspicious and now I think it's just potential scumbuddy moves.
I didn't understand what Primate meant by this, so had a look at the numbers listed (thank you). I suggested Fenchurch>CES twice, and then swapped to CES>Fenchurch.

This is for a few reasons. My own weak reason (still in disagreement with myself):
In post 417, Wenna wrote:But then if I imagine Fenchurch saying this IRL, it seems much more ordinary: gives idea, pushes for your idea [repeat].
But mostly because more players seem to have similar views on CES to me, and so I am trying to listen to the consensus. Early game I was Postie>Fenchurch then CES>either. So it's not as simple as a Vote Fenchurch, no wait don't, scenario.

I explained some of these feelings in post 371: "It is difficult to push for an execution to happen when most of your thoughts go against the consensus, and only serve to muddy the water. I should have changed my vote to CES but at the time I was happier voting on Postie or Fenchurch. At the time I thought the more town play was to go with the consensus of the more experienced players. Maybe I should have tried to save Menno given my anti-baddy thoughts on them, but I was not expecting it to happen so suddenly (their own vote)."

Anyway it is interesting that you (Primate) have paired us (Fen/Wen), I have been anti-Fenchurch for most of this game, and very vocal about it. Fair enough if you see it as scum-buddying, but I have felt iffy about Fenchurch fright from early on, even if another player sneaks ahead because of XYZ. e.g. most recent posts, voting, listening to others and re-evaluating my views.

Early game I had similar thoughts to Primate about Postie/Fenchurch scum-buddying because of their conversations (which also seemed to restrict the game so much to the Menno and cpol incidents). Misdirection and time-wasting. Now it seems like it could have been more organic from Postie, but from Fenchurch (who is still asking cpol about the potato) it seems pretty anti-town - keeping on steering us down that same tired and well-trodden road.

Anyway, to be more perspicuous about my thoughts from now on:
My feelings currently: Fenchurch>CES>>>>>>>>>>>>>anyone else
Who I would vote for currently: CES>Fenchurch>>>>>>>>cpol*

*(purely because of mechanics)
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Post Post #462 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 1:21 am

Post by Wenna »

In post 460, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Wenna's read on Fenchurch feels very much like a "The Emperor has no Clothes" situation
CES: Please expand on this.
In post 460, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I'm not sure we can win here if either Nexus or Wenna are town.
CES: Why can't we win if Nexus or I are town?
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Post Post #463 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 3:56 am

Post by Fenchurch »

In post 457, Primate wrote:I do get why you would do that if you geniunely thought they were scum, but given the result of the day I think it's scummy, especially because as scum it would be really easy for you to just decide that you think the quickhammer is super scummy and take it as written that menno is scum. A bit like the dogmatism you were doing d1 with the potatoes and cpol.
If it's worth anything, I think my tunnelling was influenced from my last team mafia game, where someone made a very suspicious claim (delayed arson vig) and floundered. I was hesitant and doubtful of whether scum would make such a scummy play. But it turned out they were just scum.

I'm sorry for being less prepared to consider the quick hammer as impulsive town. Although, I still don't know if I would do anything differently next time. Like Postie described yesterday... I would feel annoyed if I wrote that off and then lost because they actually were scum. You all may be much more astute than me, but I don't think I could ever have felt confident enough in discerning Menno's alignment outside from that action.
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Post Post #464 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 4:26 am

Post by Nexus »

Scum would be more fun than this. At least then I could troll and not feel bad.
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Post Post #465 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 5:07 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

In post 462, Wenna wrote:
In post 460, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Wenna's read on Fenchurch feels very much like a "The Emperor has no Clothes" situation
CES: Please expand on this.
You've just written these elaborate descriptions of the behaviour that's supposed to make Fenchurch scummy, of manipulating people in these really thought out ways. But there's just nothing behind it; when I asked for an example, it seemed to amount to her with agreeing with something. I don't think there's any way she could have manipulated that into existence and it doesn't seem to particularly accomplish anything? At a push you could suggest she's trying to establish cpol as town but then she's doing it quite overtly.
Wenna wrote:CES: Why can't we win if Nexus or I are town?
It just feels hard to imagine executing two other people over both of you.
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Post Post #466 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 8:50 am

Post by cpol »

If there are three scum, then they only need to convince two townies to vote with them and the game is over, no? 8 alive -1 execution, -1 night kill gives us a 3/3 split the next day, ending the game?

So, assuming we
are
at 3, If CES were town, then at least two of Postie, Nexus and Wenna in theory should be scum, otherwise the game would have ended by now – i.e. with two townies voting for CES the other three scum would simply join the vote and end the day. Luckily (I hope!) I can’t see 2 of the potential three scum in Postie, Nexus and Wenna. They could of course all be scum, hoping that two townies follow them, but the Postie, Nexus and Wenna scum team is not one I can imagine myself.

Just extrapolating this out further to make it clearer.
There 3 people voting for CES – 5 are not. It takes 5 to execute. Assume there are 3 scum, and CES is Town, then the options are that:
0 scum are currently voting, 3 are currently not. They would all now vote and end the day and win,
1 scum is already voting, the other 2 are not. They would, and so end the day and win.
2 scum are already voting, the other 1 is not. This scenario wouldn’t end the day, and would rely on another townie joining the vote.
3 scum are already voting. Two of the townies would need to join the vote to end the day.

So, based off the fact that the day isn't over, I believe it means that for CES to be town
at least two scum must currently be on the vote
. And I can’t see that being true. I could believe one, but not two.

That means I have to agree with my conclusion that CES is very likely scum. So, I have to convince myself that this is correct, and also convince at least one other town player who isn’t already on the vote to do the same, whilst all at the same time have the 3 potential scum buddies dissenting against the play. Which, to be honest, sounds fricking awful. But if there are three scum, town probably only get the execution if they unanimously agree I guess? Or at least very close to that.

What’s is interesting is that this is actually the 2nd time that CES has been on 3 votes – it never progressed further then either.

The other option of course is that we are at 2 scum. But this is less risky, as it isn’t ExLo right now. (Just checking the math – 8 alive -1 execution, -1 night kill gives us 6 players left, with two scum. We’d be at ExLo the following day instead?) If that’s the case, and we execute CES and they flip town, we at least get to think about it for another day.

OK, I’ve put my train of thought down for all to see, and I guess if this is a horrible mistake, or I've fudged the maths somewhere, I’ll have to live with it. I don’t feel like we will get much more over going round the same topics of conversation, I don’t think anyone is going to suddenly make some kind of slip that we can latch on to anyway. But I also don't see me coming round to the idea that two of Postie, Nexus and Wenna are scum. And I would personally take the CES execution and re-evaluate tomorrow if it came to that.

Unvote

VOTE: CES
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Post Post #467 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:09 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Cpol, this is entirely wrong, please unvote.
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Post Post #468 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:12 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

We're at even numbers with a jailkeeper. No way scum give up multiple members for a quickexecution here. If they have the numbers to finish me off, they just talk themselves into it.

And that's not even taking into account that they have barely had time to arrange a quickexecution nor that Nexus and Wenna could easily both be scum.

EDIT: Badger incoming - CDB
Last edited by ChannelDelibird on Wed May 11, 2022 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #469 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:17 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

I don't actually get how you can vote for Primate earlier in the day for lurking and somehow have issue with the theory that Nexus and Wenna, both of whom I would describe as having interacted less with the game than Primate.
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Post Post #470 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:17 am

Post by cpol »

I'll unvote for the time being, because I don't want to lose, but I'll need more clarification than that as to why I am wrong in my thoughts.

Unvote
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Post Post #471 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:20 am

Post by cpol »

Please explain why over the course of this day, when you have been at three votes twice, you haven't been executed. Scum could easily have carried on the previous days case if they wanted to, it wouldn't have been a hard switch and wouldn't have looked like a quick execution to me.
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Post Post #472 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:23 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Do you think that e.g. if there's a Nexus-Poro-Fenchurch scum team, Poro and Fenchurch would quickhammer me, risking a 1 in 3 that they get jailkept and the town is right back in it?

But also, just as an example, Poro hasn't actually posted while I've been at E-2.
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Post Post #473 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:23 am

Post by cpol »

In post 469, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I don't actually get how you can vote for Primate earlier in the day for lurking and somehow have issue with the theory that Nexus and Wenna, both of whom I would describe as having interacted less with the game than Primate.
I am not overly enamoured by Primates response to being called out - what I would call overly defensive/aggressive (similar to Patrick did to me during WereLeg one game when he was scum), plus for someone not 'invested' in the game, they sure responded quickly to being voted for. Nexus may have been luring a lot more, but several of their comments have resonated with what I was feeling at the time as well. I'll agree Wenna is a null for me at the moment, but could fall into that 1 voter category. And I still land on the fact that I can't see Nexus and Wenna together as a pairing.
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Post Post #474 (ISO) » Wed May 11, 2022 9:26 am

Post by cpol »

In post 472, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Do you think that e.g. if there's a Nexus-Poro-Fenchurch scum team, Poro and Fenchurch would quickhammer me, risking a 1 in 3 that they get jailkept and the town is right back in it?

But also, just as an example, Poro hasn't actually posted while I've been at E-2.
The first time you were at E-2, the claims hadn't happened yet. The jailkeeper wasn't known, so could have happened.

Poro not posting does not mean that they haven't been viewing.

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