If there are three scum, then they only need to convince two townies to vote with them and the game is over, no? 8 alive -1 execution, -1 night kill gives us a 3/3 split the next day, ending the game?
So, assuming we
are
at 3, If CES were town, then at least two of Postie, Nexus and Wenna in theory should be scum, otherwise the game would have ended by now – i.e. with two townies voting for CES the other three scum would simply join the vote and end the day. Luckily (I hope!) I can’t see 2 of the potential three scum in Postie, Nexus and Wenna. They could of course all be scum, hoping that two townies follow them, but the Postie, Nexus and Wenna scum team is not one I can imagine myself.
Just extrapolating this out further to make it clearer.
There 3 people voting for CES – 5 are not. It takes 5 to execute. Assume there are 3 scum, and CES is Town, then the options are that:
0 scum are currently voting, 3 are currently not. They would all now vote and end the day and win,
1 scum is already voting, the other 2 are not. They would, and so end the day and win.
2 scum are already voting, the other 1 is not. This scenario wouldn’t end the day, and would rely on another townie joining the vote.
3 scum are already voting. Two of the townies would need to join the vote to end the day.
So, based off the fact that the day isn't over, I believe it means that for CES to be town
at least two scum must currently be on the vote
. And I can’t see that being true. I could believe one, but not two.
That means I have to agree with my conclusion that CES is very likely scum. So, I have to convince myself that this is correct, and also convince at least one other town player who isn’t already on the vote to do the same, whilst all at the same time have the 3 potential scum buddies dissenting against the play. Which, to be honest, sounds fricking awful. But if there are three scum, town probably only get the execution if they unanimously agree I guess? Or at least very close to that.
What’s is interesting is that this is actually the 2nd time that CES has been on 3 votes – it never progressed further then either.
The other option of course is that we are at 2 scum. But this is less risky, as it isn’t ExLo right now. (Just checking the math – 8 alive -1 execution, -1 night kill gives us 6 players left, with two scum. We’d be at ExLo the following day instead?) If that’s the case, and we execute CES and they flip town, we at least get to think about it for another day.
OK, I’ve put my train of thought down for all to see, and I guess if this is a horrible mistake, or I've fudged the maths somewhere, I’ll have to live with it. I don’t feel like we will get much more over going round the same topics of conversation, I don’t think anyone is going to suddenly make some kind of slip that we can latch on to anyway. But I also don't see me coming round to the idea that two of Postie, Nexus and Wenna are scum. And I would personally take the CES execution and re-evaluate tomorrow if it came to that.
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VOTE: CES