Mewbie 2094 -- GAME OVER

[goodmorning]

I think his frustration at tidus being run up is almost certainly genuine too - I just think it's a great reason to nullread tidus and push elsewhere. And a bad reason to townread Tidus then not do anything while Tidus dies.

As someone who's had townreads on newbs that nobody else shared and who defended many of them, I wouldn't have stuck my neck out for one playing like Tidus in this game. There are plenty of reasons to find catboi suspicious but I don't think this is one of them.

[syugar]

What are your plenty of reasons to find him suspicious? I'm curious

[goodmorning]

VOTE: Tidus

Just in case we miscounted. There've been a few pages since the last VC.

P-edit: I brought up a few of them earlier; I don't believe you were enthused.

[syugar]

Okay I'll reread them at night. Are there more unmentioned?

[Bellaphant]

Sorry catjpeg, I'm normally pretty good at not doing that! If it helps I found your last page ++ town

[syugar]

I thought #635 was extremely weird because I thought his voting pattern and frequency was pretty average

[syugar]

probably nothing tho

[goodmorning]

@syugar: Not at present.

I will say I haven't been feeling incredibly happy with most of my reads and I'm definitely planning to do a full deep dive reread with the full context of D1 in mind. Sometimes having the full progression instead of just a page by page look gives me a better feeling in weird drifty games like this one.

[goodmorning]

I don't love Cat using the "I don't love" phrasing but I don't know why that is. Ringing something for me to try to figure out.

[catboi]

I think his frustration at tidus being run up is almost certainly genuine too - I just think it's a great reason to nullread tidus and push elsewhere. And a bad reason to townread Tidus then not do anything while Tidus dies.

oh be quiet

[catboi]

not in the mood to banter much, pick up the pieces tomorrow depending on what the flip is

[Malakittens]

Votecount 1.18

Catboi: (1) goodmorning
Tidus of the X: (5) syugar, Lukewarm, Bellaphant, catboi, the worst
Lukewarm: (1) Takemikazuchi02

Not Voting (2): Tidus of the X, cat.jpeg

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2022-05-10 10:20:00)

[Malakittens]

Tidus of the X has been eliminated. He is a Vanilla Townie.

It's now Night 1. All actions to be sent to me by:
(expired on 2022-05-12 08:40:00)

[Malakittens]

Arrrrr mew maties!!

Look around and smell that ocean blue.

No mews were forced to walk da plank.

Votecount 2.0

Not Voting (8): cat.jpeg, goodmorning, syugar, Lukewarm, Bellaphant, catboi, the worst, Takemikazuchi02

With 8 alive it takes 5 to Eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-05-19 08:00:00)

[catboi]

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

Assuming it wasn't an intentional no-kill (highly unlikely), leaves the following as possible setups:

Column A & Row 1: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column A & Row 2: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3: Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5
Column B & Row 3: Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3: Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

[Lukewarm]

No deaths is good-ish. Given how stalled out things were yesterday, I was thinking that if no PRs died during the night we'd have people claim to narrow down the pool of suspects. Thoughts? (taking a page from LLD with this strategy)

I am not opposed to this, i dont think? LLD convinced me that day 2 popcorn pr claims is good in general a while back - but I have not thought a out whether a lack of kill affects that at all.

[Lukewarm]

Also

@ mod, I am VL/A until Sunday

[Takemikazuchi02]

What does LLD mean?

[Lukewarm]

What does LLD mean?

She is a user.

We had a discussion about it after she lead something similar in a different newbie game.

Here is most of her answer about it, but she does have a few more posts following. if you're interested you can follow the link to that game

Spoiler:

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

[/sp/oiler]

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

[catboi]

Also, newbie 2093 ended, so I can say that Asphodelus replaced out because she wasn't feeling into her games. So I don't think her dropping from this game is necessarily AI, and I'm not sure her being underwhelming compared to her other games is necessarily AI. I still think worst's play from Day 1 is significantly scum-motivated.

[Lukewarm]

What does LLD mean?

She is a user.

We had a discussion about it after she lead something similar in a different newbie game.

Here is most of her answer about it, but she does have a few more posts following. if you're interested you can follow the link to that game

Spoiler:

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

[/sp/oiler]

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

So I actually read back that conversation, and I think that the no kill creates a lose scenario that does not exist in her example given

I asked her what about the possibility of us being in column C, and so the scum team might be able to fake claim a pr during this. Her response was that by doing it popcorn style, it would be too risky for scum - because of the masons possibility.

But that risk is actually gone now. So if we are in column C, that could actually be kinda bad

[catboi]

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

[Lukewarm]

because there's confirmed to be no kill it also limits the number of possible setups, if there's a cop or tracker the investigative report is useful information that can narrow things down (or possibly just out a mafia, depending on their target). A doc save is unambiguously clear, a jailkeeper target is unfortunately ambiguous as to whether it was a save or a blocked kill but it at least gives something to discuss. I think at this point though any information is going to be useful given where we are an the amount of replacements and idleness we had to work through on Day 1.

My point is that if we are in column C, then the scum team knows that we are in exactly the Jailkeeper/VT column right now, and they can safely fake claim tracker.

So, if we do it, then we basically have to go in knowing that we can't really trust a tracker claim if there is a jailkeer.

But maybe, since we know that, it is not too much of a problem?

[catboi]

So I actually read back that conversation, and I think that the no kill creates a lose scenario that does not exist in her example given

I asked her what about the possibility of us being in column C, and so the scum team might be able to fake claim a pr during this. Her response was that by doing it popcorn style, it would be too risky for scum - because of the masons possibility.

But that risk is actually gone now. So if we are in column C, that could actually be kinda bad

Mmm, I guess, but in that scenario scum would

have

to claim tracker, can't get away with claiming a guilty on later days, have to give info, and can be evaluated down the line just like anyone else.

[the worst]

In favour of mass claim, popcorn is fine, suggest Luke goes first