Mini Normal 2272: Flash Games | Game Over!

[Carcalilly]

Question to everyone:

Who would you jail tonight if you were me?

Italiano / Crescent

So you’d jail excusively probably town in your eyes?

Damn this is a race for who is scummiest between you and Titus.

I'm more confident in guessing who scum would target than guessing who is scum, tbh.

[Dwlee99]

Wait MathBlade do you think Scorpious is scum or no

No I don’t.

Why not

[JacksonVirgo]

JV is one of my "this slot isn't really pingy, but has done nothing in particular that proves them to be town" impressions. I'm kind of meh about the hood bc I'd rather look for scum in actual scumplays than ponder about the statistics of randomly assigned roles.

It's a 4 person hood. There's scum in it

[JacksonVirgo]

Picking 1 out of 4 vs 1 out of 11.

Take your pick.

[Carcalilly]

JV is one of my "this slot isn't really pingy, but has done nothing in particular that proves them to be town" impressions. I'm kind of meh about the hood bc I'd rather look for scum in actual scumplays than ponder about the statistics of randomly assigned roles.

It's a 4 person hood. There's scum in it

I'm aware that it's highly probable but I can't justify it turning into a top reason for me to scumread someone.

[JacksonVirgo]

Or 3 out of 11 if it's a 3p scum team.
36% chance at random.

1/4
25% chance at random.

Is my math wrong here this seems wrong :p

[JacksonVirgo]

No that's not right.

[JacksonVirgo]

27% is it. My brain broke

[Carcalilly]

Picking 1 out of 4 vs 1 out of 11.

Take your pick.

Sure it's 1/4? 0/4? 2/4? Does everyone get instatown'd if you hit one in there? Does it turn into 1/3 if you hit a townie?

[MathBlade]

Wait MathBlade do you think Scorpious is scum or no

No I don’t.

Why not

I already explained why not. Even night JK doesn’t make sense.

Scum would be throwing their utility away with that claim.

If anyone was blocked on an odd night (and then flips town) becomes policy.

Town scum both with blockers is practically unheard of.

So they’d be leashing Scorpious and if he didn’t agree with what majority town wanted another avenue of insta death.

It’s too restrictive. Scum under pressure almost always do some low powered invest for this reason.

[JacksonVirgo]

Picking 1 out of 4 vs 1 out of 11.

Take your pick.

Sure it's 1/4? 0/4? 2/4? Does everyone get instatown'd if you hit one in there? Does it turn into 1/3 if you hit a townie?

It isn't 0/4 scum in the hood. It's at least one. I have to read context of the game to gauge the instatown'd but I'd say not conf-town by any means. It would indeed turn 1/3 if we hit a green.

[JacksonVirgo]

Scum would be throwing their utility away with that claim.

The amount of pain I feel when scum throw their utility away for an easy claim. It happens too many times in my Discord mafia server, not sure if this applies here as well (aka if it's a human brain thing). I don't think this particular read is reliable

[Gamma Emerald]

Question to everyone:

Who would you jail tonight if you were me?

Italiano / Crescent

So you’d jail excusively probably town in your eyes?

Damn this is a race for who is scummiest between you and Titus.

I'm more confident in guessing who scum would target than guessing who is scum, tbh.

I’ve had good sense in the past with trying to block scum kills but in a general sense I would say it’s easier to use JK as a doctor than as a roleblocker.

[MathBlade]

Or 3 out of 11 if it's a 3p scum team.
36% chance at random.

1/4
25% chance at random.

Is my math wrong here this seems wrong :p

Assuming Carca is town for sake of argument and assume 3 scum for sake of argument. Admittedly 4 is possible if one is traitor but I highly doubt that considering normals tend to be townsided (to me)

The two possibilities are all scum outside the hood
Or at least one scum in the hood.

Before flips on D1 >> 12 other players(13 total again assuming Carca town for argument), 4 in hood, 8 outside of it.

Two players dead both outside.

This means 6 outside hood 4 inside.

The odds of a single player being town would be 7/10. The odds of two both being town is 7/10 * 6/9.

Continuing on its 7/10 * 6/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 = approx 16.666%

Pretty low odds.

[Gamma Emerald]

Wait MathBlade do you think Scorpious is scum or no

No I don’t.

Why not

I already explained why not. Even night JK doesn’t make sense.

Scum would be throwing their utility away with that claim.

If anyone was blocked on an odd night (and then flips town) becomes policy.

Town scum both with blockers is practically unheard of.

So they’d be leashing Scorpious and if he didn’t agree with what majority town wanted another avenue of insta death.

It’s too restrictive. Scum under pressure almost always do some low powered invest for this reason.

It’s been a while since but I recall at least one game back from 2016 or so where there was a town and scum blocker

[ItalianoVD]

Carca's Day 2 activity has been pinging me. And then not saying much when she does post.

Clarify, activity as in post material or frequency?

Both. Feels like you have the game figured out or you like where the gamestate is and are not trying to do anything to change it.

[MathBlade]

Question to everyone:

Who would you jail tonight if you were me?

Italiano / Crescent

So you’d jail excusively probably town in your eyes?

Damn this is a race for who is scummiest between you and Titus.

I'm more confident in guessing who scum would target than guessing who is scum, tbh.

I’ve had good sense in the past with trying to block scum kills but in a general sense I would say it’s easier to use JK as a doctor than as a roleblocker.

I honestly would use it either on a scumread I couldn’t get elimmed or on a TR who isn’t a PR read.

If they are a TR and a PR I wouldn’t jail them unless I was super desperate on scumreads and had no other TRs because then you’re denying a PR and you’re not using the invest half of the PR as well and you’re denying the PR the chance to function.

There’s a few possibilities
Jail someone who did the kill / the victim >> yay!
Jail someone who didn’t do the kill/victim and isn’t a PR with feedback >> Hooray claim that at some point before death
Jail someone who didn’t do the kill/victim and is someone you TR and is a PR >> their feedback is gone and your ability to filter a null read is gone. You better be Damn sure about it if you block a person and they are a TR that they’re vanilla or not acting that night.

[MathBlade]

Wait MathBlade do you think Scorpious is scum or no

No I don’t.

Why not

I already explained why not. Even night JK doesn’t make sense.

Scum would be throwing their utility away with that claim.

If anyone was blocked on an odd night (and then flips town) becomes policy.

Town scum both with blockers is practically unheard of.

So they’d be leashing Scorpious and if he didn’t agree with what majority town wanted another avenue of insta death.

It’s too restrictive. Scum under pressure almost always do some low powered invest for this reason.

It’s been a while since but I recall at least one game back from 2016 or so where there was a town and scum blocker

Yeah it’s possible just not probable. It’s why I don’t believe it’s a fake claim.

[JacksonVirgo]

Continuing on its 7/10 * 6/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 = approx 16.666%

16% for picking 4 people and they all end up Town. What relevance is this particularly, I fail to see what you're trying to portray.

[MathBlade]

Continuing on its 7/10 * 6/9 * 5/8 * 4/7 = approx 16.666%

16% for picking 4 people and they all end up Town. What relevance is this particularly, I fail to see what you're trying to portray.

If you follow the prior conversation I found it suspicious Carca wasn’t pushing in the hood. The odds are overwhelming that there is at least one scum in the hood. I could be wrong about Titus specifically (I doubt it) but Carca not wanting to poke in the hood feels fishy. The previously presented math was flawed and annoyed me so I corrected it.

[Carcalilly]

It isn't 0/4 scum in the hood. It's at least one. I have to read context of the game to gauge the instatown'd but I'd say not conf-town by any means. It would indeed turn 1/3 if we hit a green.

3/11 and 1/4 are so unbelievably close I don't think it matters that much. Sure we'll probably hit one in there, but there's no need to nuke it.

[MathBlade]

It isn't 0/4 scum in the hood. It's at least one. I have to read context of the game to gauge the instatown'd but I'd say not conf-town by any means. It would indeed turn 1/3 if we hit a green.

3/11 and 1/4 are so unbelievably close I don't think it matters that much. Sure we'll probably hit one in there, but there's no need to nuke it.

That math is so bad though.

It’s more than 80% likely the scum has at least a scum in it.

Combinatorics is a thing.

[Gamma Emerald]

Video that’s relevant

[MathBlade]

Vsauce is soooo good!

[Carcalilly]

Carca's Day 2 activity has been pinging me. And then not saying much when she does post.

Clarify, activity as in post material or frequency?

Both. Feels like you have the game figured out or you like where the gamestate is and are not trying to do anything to change it.

Frequency has slightly to do with the fact that I'm still not home. Material wise, my reads shift little because little has happened to make them change. I'm not a player that can play devil's advocate just for the hell of it, but I will when I feel it's actually necessary.