While I completely disagree with Scorpious' assertion at the end of the day, him totally flubbing colors and then going after DWLee again anyway after might be the first thing he's done that actually townvibed me.
Anyways, Cara flipping Green would've made DWLee look *better*. Cara flipping Red makes them look *worse* just by VCA.
Scorpious (3): Titus, Dwlee99, Carcalilly
geraintm (1): Meuh
Went to:
geraintm (3): Meuh, Dwlee99, Carcalilly
Those 3 votes all stayed on Gera for a long while.
DWlee only voted Cara once it kinda became clear Cara was in fact going to die. It was pretty clear I was on the fence between Cara and Ger, but Ger's odd selfmeta townvibed me and Cara's general disappearance didn't. Up until my vote was placed, Cara was not a guaranteed vote off.
DWLee's vote has no town equity because of how late it was placed. The Ger vote has scum equity because it went against a scum voteoff. Somewhere around 2 1/2 days before the day ended, I started to really get the feeling that Ger/Carca was exactly one town/one scum. It's conceivably possible both were scum, but that also would mean Ger and Carca committed to bussing fairly early in the day.
Anyway to go a step further, we had this:
Carcalilly (4): Gamma Emerald, ItalianoVD, geraintm, MathBlade
geraintm (3): Meuh, Dwlee99, Carcalilly
Scorpious (1): Titus
Dwlee99 (1): Scorpious
Meuh (1): JacksonVirgo
I was the only person without a vote down when this update happened, with about 24 hours left in the day.
The people wasting their votes on splinters are interesting though - Neither Titus nor Scorpious have their vote on one of those trains, and JV is off also avoiding them. This is the second consecutive voteoff that looks *really* bad on JV's playerslot. Meuh is a wasted vote in this situation. Lee had a *chance* of being rushed, so Scorpious being there isn't as bad. Titus was just... Not even trying to play along with anyone. JV could easily be scum avoiding committing to any of these votes. Additionally, if he is scum, I would be pretty surprised if Ger was. Ger/Carca scum means JV should be on one of them early for towncred.
Which makes me expound this point further. If I toss my vote on Ger, you have all three of Titus, Scorpious, and JV, with the ability to switch votes off of splinters to put him in the lead. If Ger is town, which he probably is, scum was sitting there hoping my vote would go on him, as I had voiced a fair amount more suspicion of him before finding his self-meta oddly town vibey. I would almost guarantee that town Ger = At least one of those splinter votes is scum.
It is conceivable to me that Meuh is simply town caught on the wrong vote in a town v scum situation, though posts #1657 and #1949 go from "I think Carca is a 50/50 flip and Carca/JV aren't the same alignment" to "JV is probably scum regardless of Carca's alignment". She then immediately says in the next three posts that Carca is going to flip town. She gives no reason for these changes in stance - Mostly all she does the last three days of the game is say "Gerain is scum" with little content aside from suddenly calling me town in one post and never mentioning me again. I honestly feel like I did more to push a Ger vote than Meuh did, except she had a vote on him for over 3 days.
if Titus/Scorpious are considered to having conflicting claims by this place's meta, then one scum is there (Where I come from both being town would be possible, but that doesn't seem to be how it's treated here).
DWlee's scum equity is a lot higher if Titus is scum and Scorpious is town. Though it would mean scum went gambity and all piled onto the same guy hoping people would distance them as a result. I've seen it before, especially when scum feels cornered. If Mathblade lives tonight, then his suggestion that scum was "afraid" to let Scorpious live the day has more merit and makes this kind of gambit more likely.
JV's is the same. Definitely higher scum equity with Titus than with Scorpious. His rationale about being town because he's "Letting the GS get a free check" assumes Mathblade is actually going to live tonight, and I don't think he will so it's a moot point. Coming up with the idea first actually reflects *worse* on JV if Mathblade dies tonight.
Meuh mostly ignores Scorpious but would kill him over Titus and doesn't think either are a good vote. Mathblade's death is pretty null on her.
Two of the three players make way more sense with Titus being scum over Scorpious, as does Carca's flip. The same two players reflect differently depending on if Mathblade survives the night or not. The third could go either way.
And now I read into Carca...
Carca was on Scorpious instantly on day 2, unvoted because he went -2 very quickly, and only revoted him quite a bit later (#1449) than Titus' claim (#1357). What's interesting is... Carca's last post was a minute after Titus claimed, but she made no comment on it. This feels like Carca went into lurking to figure out if she should vote for Scorpious or not. She then gets two votes, possibly for going into hiding in the first place, and immediately votes Scorp. JV immediately votes her for this. (but later is adamant she's town?)
Carca's day 1 votes: Gamma, Gerain, Moose (now JV), MM
Day 2 votes: Scorpious early on, then back to Scorpious much later, then ultimately to Ger in her final post before vanishing for 24 hours and dying. What's interesting though is that Carca's very next post after DWLee votes for Ger is to.. Also vote for Ger before peacing out. This *kind of* feels like scum following town onto a vote, so it does give some town credit to DWLee. Carca shaded/set up voting Gerain very early on, but never gave any sort of solid reason for it.
For Scorpious to be scum requires this to be a twice-premediated bus by Carca. She gave effectively no content after her second vote on him - She did almost nothing but snipe at Math (Math is town we know) and then change her vote to Ger, who she had also set up voting earlier in the day. If you "theorycrafted" that Titus/Meuh are scum, that would have made DWLee the second vote on two town voteoffs and Carca the third vote on the same town voteoffs that had STS in votes.
After all of this internal spew put into typing:
If I had to guess, there's a decent probability of DWLee just being "incorrect town with tons of scum equity" rather than DWLee actually being scum based off of Carca basically being a mirror of them and their votes.
I decided to now brush up on Meuh, trying to figure out where early town reads that protected her yesterday came from.
Immediately votes onto JV's spot, and defends Scorpious and Carca.
Then defends DWLee and shades Gerain
Like tere's tons of reads being shot out in the first... 50 posts of the game.
Later on ...Ok Meuh has been shading Gerain the entire game. Says she's going to ISO him at one point because she really wants to sort him, then doesn't ISO him and still lists him in the kill pool before voting for DWLee.
Problem though:
Says town vibes from DWLee in post #86. She never mentions DWLee again in any capacity until vote #593 and says "I've never attempted to sort them" and specifically votes them because other people have voiced some suspicion. I even called her out on how fake this sounded in post #602. She also almost immediately shades Gerain again after voting for DWLee - Because Gerain voted for her in post #596 for a reason that looking back is actually pretty good. The answer is: I'm not sure where the early town reads came from. She spits out tons of reads in the opening seconds of the game, but doesn't follow up or commit to them. Says ISOs are coming, but doesn't give them. Reads come out, but some just aren't explained at all. They resemble her vote on DWLee - They're air.
Day 2 she voted JV's slot early before the replacement, but almost completely ignored the replacement for hundreds of posts. The same vibe can be said when she suddenly said I was town yesterday because... ???. She's actually done a lot of what Carca was accused of doing - Barely a factor day 2. Barely commented on anything to do with Scorpious or Titus. Ger just became a safe place for her to keep her vote parked and she stayed there. This vote was made at #1102 and very little came from her afterwards. If Ger doesn't get extra votes later on (All the way at #1647 is when he gets #2), hers just sits there as a splinter.
I would vote Meuh before DWLee. DWLee's even worse reads aside, they've felt like they're simply more committed in their play - There's more of a natural flow whereas Meuh gives a strong vibe of playing to set up later votes.. Combine all this with Meuh effectively blatantly countersuspecting JV quickly like she did Gerain, and JV/Meuh probably isn't S/S. I think a green Meuh flip makes JV look hellishly worse and a red flip makes him look better
I could see a world where DWLee, JV, and Gerain are all town (Even though JV's yesterday doesn't look particularly good - I think his vote was correct.), and Meuh is the scum outlier of that cluster. Meuh's first day was mostly just a spew of general emptiness that was overhyped because she said so much in such a short timespan.{/b]
Oh and wall posting to start days is NAI for me. If I don't expect to die (I think Mathblade is going to turn up dead) and I go into "ramble in the middle of the night" mode I'll write one. Even by my standards this ended up really long.
P.S. For the record, I kinda don't think we kill Tidus or Scorpious today regardless of what happened last night. If we're killing Tidus especially, I would rather do it on an even day aka tomorrow. Meuh is my lean on who to vote right now.