Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Bellaphant]

I'm voting ari because this is a really pointless way to generate content that looks towny on the face of it and now people are contributing stuff, me included, that is totally nai about something that is nai.

[Harley Quinn]

I'm voting ari because this is a really pointless way to generate content that looks towny on the face of it and now people are contributing stuff, me included, that is totally nai about something that is nai.

Yes, the entire discussion is pointless because Ausuka already debunked it.

[Harley Quinn]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

What was your reasoning behind this exercise?

Why won’t you explain this?

[Ausuka]

I'm voting ari because this is a really pointless way to generate content that looks towny on the face of it and now people are contributing stuff, me included, that is totally nai about something that is nai.

I've talked about my reasoning for scumreading Ari here - why is it wrong and where should we be looking instead? I don't know that it's helpful to just call it NAI

[Gamma Emerald]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I think it’s a scientifically viable theory

[implosion]

well actually a town did apparently pick 21 recently I missed that one, I think my point still makes sense though

I think this is actually the fewest number collisions that have ever happened in the draft in this setup - out of the 17 other runs of the game I see one that had 5 people colliding and one that had 6, but this takes the cake with only 4, and most of them had like... in the vicinity of 8-9 people who picked the same number as someone else.

However strategically speaking I don't think it makes a lot of sense to have multiple mafia players pick large numbers. I guess it could be wifomy in a way.

Like I pointed out, scum literally have picked "Oops, All Large Numbers" as an explicit gambit before - the fact that their version of "large numbers" was in the double digits rather than the triple digits is meaningless, the intent was still to have their numbers be bigger than the town's.

This could theoretically be meaningful in some useful way but probably isn't.

Why do you think it isn't meaningful? I know it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions but isn't it at least worth looking at during RVS? It seems like a major anomaly to me

Yeah I mean, that's why I brought it up. I just can't think of any interpretation of it that seems particularly likely to actually be informationally useful. It is definitely related to "lots of people picked big numbers and probably someone with a big number is scum" but that's statistically the case anyway because... a lot of people picked big numbers.

[implosion]

Oh no.

well actually a town did apparently pick 21 recently I missed that one, I think my point still makes sense though

I think this is actually the fewest number collisions that have ever happened in the draft in this setup - out of the 17 other runs of the game I see one that had 5 people colliding and one that had 6, but this takes the cake with only 4, and most of them had like... in the vicinity of 8-9 people who picked the same number as someone else.

This could theoretically be meaningful in some useful way but probably isn't.

Why do you think it isn't meaningful? I know it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions but isn't it at least worth looking at during RVS? It seems like a major anomaly to me

Yeah I mean, that's why I brought it up. I just can't think of any interpretation of it that seems particularly likely to actually be informationally useful. It is definitely related to "lots of people picked big numbers and probably someone with a big number is scum" but that's statistically the case anyway because... a lot of people picked big numbers.

However strategically speaking I don't think it makes a lot of sense to have multiple mafia players pick large numbers. I guess it could be wifomy in a way.

Like I pointed out, scum literally have picked "Oops, All Large Numbers" as an explicit gambit before - the fact that their version of "large numbers" was in the double digits rather than the triple digits is meaningless, the intent was still to have their numbers be bigger than the town's.

Fixed.

[Aristeia]

I don't understand what you mean by "only four people"

would a different number of people make my theory more or less valid?

Sure, because 7/11 picked lower numbers, so I don’t see your theory as helpful or why you’re defending it so strongly?

9/13

why is it not helpful to rule out 4 players if they are all actually town?

Because it’s a bad metric as Ausuka has already pointed out.

Make reads based off of posting not numbers.

if the four people are town, then it is useful - this is just objectively a fact.

I don't think I've ever expressed the opinion that I am not going to make reads off of posting or that posting is relatively immaterial compared to numerical analysis.

[implosion]

I see Ausuka has basically said what's needed so I won't reiterate more.

I think Ausuka calling me scummy for not crafting a narrative and pushing someone based on the numbers is a bit weird; like yes I'm poisoning the well a bit with the phrase "crafting a narrative" but I really don't think it'd be difficult to do as scum. It's like the mechanical talk at the start of any open game - easy for scum to participate in in a way that helps them blend in, a lot of the time. And I ultimately don't think it's very likely that the draft truly contains info that will let us pick a lim with significantly >rand odds most of the time.

I agree with whoever said Bellaphant's posting is somewhat town. I don't really like that comment from Ausuka toward me and I don't really feel strongly about their comments toward Aristeia - they're very much correct but that correctness doesn't necessarily translate to alignment. Don't think they're particularly scummy on the whole, but I don't think they should be townbinned yet though I understand why someone would.

Enchant's 2 posts so far ring much truer to what I know of his scum game than his town game; at least, to my memory, I've seen him actually play the game as town and decidedly not play the game as scum (though I'm probably going to over-weight that scum game in my mind because I knew he was scum all game).

I'm also interested in 2/3 of Klick's posts being answering Aristeia's exercise, and then later complaining that they can't accurately answer Aristeia's exercise, but not necessarily scummy.

I could probably write a wall worth of random comments but shrug.

VOTE: Enchant

[Aristeia]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I think it’s a scientifically viable theory

The theory that Aus seems to be espousing is that 3/4 scum picked large numbers and I as scum decided to voluntarily propose townbinning my scum team + me on the basis of "large numbers town".

I think it's fairly wild and incredibly unlikely for me as scum to do and I have difficulty understanding why someone would believe this is an actual thing that is likely to happen.

[implosion]

Oh and as for Ari herself, eh idk how to read her off this. I'm terrible at reading her generally. I can see scum reason for playing how she is, but I do think that her play is a little on-the-nose if scum did coordinate on picking big numbers in *this* game. I haven't read the other game but I doubt the scum immediately came out of the gate calling each other town for also picking big numbers.

[Aristeia]

I really do think there is a difference between picking 18 and picking 512 but I don't think it makes sense for me to argue with people about it because my sense of numbers and strategy might be inherently different from yours.

[Aristeia]

aight ari, time's up. tell us what cool shit you're gonna do with the information we gave you.

not everyone has even responded or even put down 3 numbers

i see no point in explaining my thought process if people are unwilling to do a fairly simple task

What was your reasoning behind this exercise?

Why won’t you explain this?

If I propose that everyone does ______ because I think it will help me catch scum

and then most people don't do _____ because they'd rather give a joke answer, they'd rather say they can't come up with the answer, they'd say if they were scum they wouldn't do it, they think its busywork, insert random excuse why picking 3 numbers is unreasonable for me to ask them to do.

then it would be somewhat pointless for me to explain how I get from ______ to "catching scum" because it would be explaining my thought process for scum to play around,

[Ausuka]

It's like the mechanical talk at the start of any open game - easy for scum to participate in in a way that helps them blend in, a lot of the time.

This is exactly the issue I have with your early posts - you contributed to the mechanical discussion but never used that for reads. It's fine to believe there's no way to push someone based off the draft because it's NAI but if that's the case I wouldn't expect someone to make several posts contributing to the draft analysis. It helps you blend in and doesn't start alignment based discussion

Enchant could be scum but I'm reluctant to try and lynch the top draft Day 1

[Aristeia]

Like I'm not asking for people to mass claim or give me details that I could possibly use as scum to win the game.

I'm asking people for three numbers they would pick if they were running a scum team.

It's not like I can possibly use the information to do bad things.

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

[Gamma Emerald]

i think it is fairly silly to believe scum decided to coordinate picking big numbers

I think it’s a scientifically viable theory

The theory that Aus seems to be espousing is that 3/4 scum picked large numbers and I as scum decided to voluntarily propose townbinning my scum team + me on the basis of "large numbers town".

I think it's fairly wild and incredibly unlikely for me as scum to do and I have difficulty understanding why someone would believe this is an actual thing that is likely to happen.

If I were to call you scum it wouldn’t be for that
But like, it’s been proven that scum have gambitted on high numbers before
So what make you think a high number is more likely town?

[Ausuka]

* Lim, sorry, I haven't played in 3 years but I'll try and think before hitting submit in future

[implosion]

This is exactly the issue I have with your early posts - you contributed to the mechanical discussion but never used that for reads. It's fine to believe there's no way to push someone based off the draft because it's NAI but if that's the case I wouldn't expect someone to make several posts contributing to the draft analysis. It helps you blend in and doesn't start alignment based discussion

But I did try to start alignment based discussion - I threw it out there in case someone else had a conclusion they could draw from it. And I did start giving reads for other reasons.

Incredibly when I voted enchant i remembered that he was the only one who picked #1 and forgot that that meant he's a guaranteed PR. Alas.

[implosion]

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

The answer I gave was the best-faith answer I could give. If I gave numbers, they'd be in bad faith.

I suspect others who gave non-answers feel similarly.

[Aristeia]

If I were to call you scum it wouldn’t be for that
But like, it’s been proven that scum have gambitted on high numbers before
So what make you think a high number is more likely town?

because scum want to pick before town does; order matters very much to them.

If a scum player picks a PR, that's a PR that a town player can't get.

I find the probability of a "collision" to be very low when you get out to the double digits.

Imo if you pick something between 20 - 40 you are very very unlikely to be collided with.

When you pick a number that is higher than 100, you're basically ceding priority in the pick order to every two digit number without really gaining much in terms of "less collision probability" so I find these picks to be more likely to come from town than scum.

I think it's more likely that a town player would pick a very large out there number rather than a scum player because there are more players in the scum PT and one of them is likely to say "well why dont you pick like 25 instead of 212?"

There's also the sense that you're working as a team to come up with picks that fit your strategy rather than a town player just picking whatever number they happen to like.

[Aristeia]

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

The answer I gave was the best-faith answer I could give. If I gave numbers, they'd be in bad faith.

I suspect others who gave non-answers feel similarly.

ok I think that's fine if everybody doesn't want to do the exercise I can just forget about it - but I don't owe anyone a long written out explanation if they won't write down three numbers, that's just not how the world works.

[implosion]

When you pick a number that is higher than 100, you're basically ceding priority in the pick order to every two digit number without really gaining much in terms of "less collision probability" so I find these picks to be more likely to come from town than scum.

I think it's more likely that a town player would pick a very large out there number rather than a scum player because there are more players in the scum PT and one of them is likely to say "well why dont you pick like 25 instead of 212?"

This is an interesting argument for the magnitudes being different, actually. I mean my picking 16 was partially because I thought it was around the point where collision became very unlikely but that I'd still beat some people out. I think it is assuming a good amount about scum PT dynamics, though, and that could depend on who the scum are. For instance if Malakittens is accurately reporting her reason for picking her number, maybe she just wanted to pick that number and didn't care even if her scumbuddies said it was a bad idea to go that high, or maybe she said she was gonna do that and scum said it was a good idea because she had the reason to go with it.

[Ausuka]

But I did try to start alignment based discussion - I threw it out there in case someone else had a conclusion they could draw from it. And I did start giving reads for other reasons.

Sure it's possible for someone else to pick it up, but I think it's still mildly scum indicative to do setup analysis and repeatedly dismiss its importance

[Aristeia]

I am assuming the scum made their decisions collectively as a group rather than just randomly picked whatever they each individually wanted.

I don't actually know if this is the case for most PYPs - I just kind of think it makes sense to play that way as mafia.

[Gamma Emerald]

If people won't treat me in basic good faith then I don't really feel any obligation to explain myself.

The answer I gave was the best-faith answer I could give. If I gave numbers, they'd be in bad faith.

I suspect others who gave non-answers feel similarly.

ok I think that's fine if everybody doesn't want to do the exercise I can just forget about it - but I don't owe anyone a long written out explanation if they won't write down three numbers, that's just not how the world works.

Does your exercise seriously require a full response from everyone?