Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Prism]

Quick note that the placeholder has now been updated with a VC.

[Lukewarm]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

I think that Baltar's recent vote switch from dwlee to dunn is in hopes to keep me from being able to shoot there.

are you scumreading vp now?

I think that if gorilla flips scum, he should be looked at for that interaction.

Baltar has made no real comments about starting to town read dwlee or about scum reading dunn harder, and the topic of conversation has largely been around the use of my vig shot.

If gorilla flips town, then it doesn't matter, and ignore all of my reads I guess. But, if he flips scum, that was hella suspicious imo

[Gammagooey]

4. Does everyone have access to Invictus?

• It can be expected that most or all players have access to Invictus.

I am operating under the assumption that scum have Invictus as well.

ok, so the scum have invictus in the original game. However, it does not appear there is a town killing ability in that game (skimmed, so maybe I missed it). That feels a bit broken to me if we assume all the scum can invictus.

I don't really see it that way? Gorilla mentioned earlier that town basically get 10 elims this game from this point assuming no other killing abilities for town and scum kill every night - if town get more kills scum having Invictus keeps a similar ratio (it goes from town having 2 elims and scum having 1 for each full day+night phase, to town having 3-4 elims vs scum having 1-2 elims each full phase (if town is hit with the vig there's another chance of their target hitting scum, if scum is hit then it's similar to adding a normal game's day/night phase with a scum elim which is still beneficial to town). It could also be like if scum have PRs then those scum don't also have invictus but that's getting v. deep into random speculation.

[gorilla]

Like, what reason does he actually have to desperately canvas for someone else to put their invictus on me? I can't fucking nightkill him if I'm mafia else I get invictus'd, he can always try to get people to vote me out. Why does he need to vig me? There's no plausible town motivation.

[fireisredsir]

Baltar has made no real comments about starting to town read dwlee or about scum reading dunn harder, and the topic of conversation has largely been around the use of my vig shot.

yes, he did. 1940, 1956, 1969, 1976. i think his progression has been p clear actually, idk how you wouldn't have seen those if you were trying to sort him here

[gorilla]

VOTE: Meuh

I'll put aside the thunderdoming for now though, I know people won't vote there. But I'm not satisfied with voting dunn atp either. So I'll go back to my prior scumread.

[Lukewarm]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

I think that Baltar's recent vote switch from dwlee to dunn is in hopes to keep me from being able to shoot there.

I should emphasize: Luke's literal only concern right now is being able to kill me. He is absolutely flailing scum. A town PR in this situation would be concerned with making their perspective clear and leaving legacy reads. He is not doing that. He is playing purely reactively. It is not town motivated whatsoever.

This feels like a perspective flip.

If gorilla thinks that I am scum, then gorilla should think that I can just use the regular night kill on him if Dunn goes over and I don't have a twin option on him.

But he knows that the only way that I can kill him is with my twinning ability, because he knows I am town.

-----

And yes, atm I am solely focused on being able to kill him, because I think that he is scum.

[VP Baltar]

I think that Baltar's recent vote switch from dwlee to dunn is in hopes to keep me from being able to shoot there.

Yes. Gorilla is a stupid shot.

[Val89]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

Why marci here, Luke?

[Lukewarm]

Baltar has made no real comments about starting to town read dwlee or about scum reading dunn harder, and the topic of conversation has largely been around the use of my vig shot.

yes, he did. 1940, 1956, 1969, 1976. i think his progression has been p clear actually, idk how you wouldn't have seen those if you were trying to sort him here

Dude, he openly said that the reason he did it was to stop me from pairing with Dunn

now that Luke is out with this nonsense and pairing with Dunn, I am perhaps more swayed to backing the Dunn lim today as a safety measure.

So, yes. I am reacting as if he is doing this to save Gorilla. Because that is what it looks like.

[Lukewarm]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

Why marci here, Luke?

Because she previously offered to pair with me. So, was falling back to that when I felt like I needed a back up in case Dunn was the elim today

[Lukewarm]

I should emphasize: Luke's literal only concern right now is

being able to kill me

.

This person does not think that I have access to the scum night kill, but is calling me scum.

This person does not believe himself when he calls me scum.

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: Meuh

I'll put aside the thunderdoming for now though, I know people won't vote there. But I'm not satisfied with voting dunn atp either. So I'll go back to my prior scumread.

Why are you not wanting dunn?

[gorilla]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

I think that Baltar's recent vote switch from dwlee to dunn is in hopes to keep me from being able to shoot there.

I should emphasize: Luke's literal only concern right now is being able to kill me. He is absolutely flailing scum. A town PR in this situation would be concerned with making their perspective clear and leaving legacy reads. He is not doing that. He is playing purely reactively. It is not town motivated whatsoever.

This feels like a perspective flip.

If gorilla thinks that I am scum, then gorilla should think that I can just use the regular night kill on him if Dunn goes over and I don't have a twin option on him.

But he knows that the only way that I can kill him is with my twinning ability, because he knows I am town.

-----

And yes, atm I am solely focused on being able to kill him, because I think that he is scum.

You don't want to use the regular nightkill on me because trading me 1 for 1 is a bad deal for scum. You have an extra kill and want to use it in addition to the factional kill. That's not at all hard to figure out.

[gorilla]

VOTE: Meuh

I'll put aside the thunderdoming for now though, I know people won't vote there. But I'm not satisfied with voting dunn atp either. So I'll go back to my prior scumread.

Why are you not wanting dunn?

I'm less confident on that read because of how luke is acting around him. Would compromise there given deadline but less confident he's scum now.

[fireisredsir]

You have an extra kill and want to use it in addition to the factional kill. That's not at all hard to figure out.

eh i kinda think that if luke is scum here he's not actually a vig and if he has the power it does something else

[gorilla]

I should emphasize: Luke's literal only concern right now is

being able to kill me

.

This person does not think that I have access to the scum night kill, but is calling me scum.

This person does not believe himself when he calls me scum.

Lol, no. You are scum kill power. You want 2 kills, not one.

Terrible, reachy argument. It's not even remotely hard to understand what I'm saying and you're trying to distort it.

You have an extra kill and want to use it in addition to the factional kill. That's not at all hard to figure out.

eh i kinda think that if luke is scum here he's not actually a vig and if he has the power it does something else

Reasonable confidence the power exists to punish public declaration of invictus targets.

[Lukewarm]

@Marci, will you commit to planting your invictus on gorilla overnight if Dunn dies today?

I think that Baltar's recent vote switch from dwlee to dunn is in hopes to keep me from being able to shoot there.

I should emphasize: Luke's literal only concern right now is being able to kill me. He is absolutely flailing scum. A town PR in this situation would be concerned with making their perspective clear and leaving legacy reads. He is not doing that. He is playing purely reactively. It is not town motivated whatsoever.

This feels like a perspective flip.

If gorilla thinks that I am scum, then gorilla should think that I can just use the regular night kill on him if Dunn goes over and I don't have a twin option on him.

But he knows that the only way that I can kill him is with my twinning ability, because he knows I am town.

-----

And yes, atm I am solely focused on being able to kill him, because I think that he is scum.

You don't want to use the regular nightkill on me because trading me 1 for 1 is a bad deal for scum. You have an extra kill and want to use it in addition to the factional kill. That's not at all hard to figure out.

You said "being able to kill me." If you think that I am scum, being able to kill you is never in question.

Also, are you now claiming that you don't think that my vig shot would give you invictus? Because that would also be 1 for 1. That didn't stop you from thinking that I want to use that on you. Why would it stop me from wanting to use the night kill on you?

And if you do think that they both would activate the invictus, then why would my only concern be on twinning with YOU. If I was scum, who I twinned on would not be all that important to me, so long as it wasn't on one of my hypothetical partners. Because I could night kill you, and twin on them.

Gorilla is just scum here. I will happily vote him out, if not someone better leave me with the ability to twin with them on him

[Lukewarm]

And if you do think that they both would activate the invictus, then why would my only concern be on twinning with YOU. If I was scum, who I twinned on would not be all that important to me, so long as it wasn't on one of my hypothetical partners. Because I could night kill you, and twin on them.

Like, why would I reach out to Marci and ask that she explicitly lands on you. You are correctly point to the fact that I am incredibly invested in my twin shot landing on you at this point. That is correct. But you are not genuinely thinking about whether it makes sense for scum or town Luke to care about that. Because you don't actually care about my alignment.

You have fairly obviously not cared about my alignment for some time now.

[Lukewarm]

I am down to 20 posts left, so I am gonna walk away or else I will be out very soon.

I don't want a dunn elimination unless someone else commits to planting their invictus on gorilla over night.

If someone does that, then I guess Dunn can go over instead of dwlee.

[gorilla]

Like, what reason does he actually have to desperately canvas for someone else to put their invictus on me? I can't fucking nightkill him if I'm mafia else I get invictus'd, he can always try to get people to vote me out. Why does he need to vig me? There's no plausible town motivation.

And if you do think that they both would activate the invictus, then why would my only concern be on twinning with YOU. If I was scum, who I twinned on would not be all that important to me, so long as it wasn't on one of my hypothetical partners. Because I could night kill you, and twin on them.

Like, why would I reach out to Marci and ask that she explicitly lands on you. You are correctly point to the fact that I am incredibly invested in my twin shot landing on you at this point. That is correct. But you are not genuinely thinking about whether it makes sense for scum or town Luke to care about that. Because you don't actually care about my alignment.

You have fairly obviously not cared about my alignment for some time now.

I should note you skipped answering this. Because there's no logical explanation.


I don't think the logic here is hard to grasp. I

have

thought about this:

---

In a world where Luke is scum: He is a mafia member with an extra kill. He loses this kill if he dies. In such an instance, he needs to find someone to twin with before he dies. That would mean the mafia get the regular kill in addition to his kill. They lose him, but get 2 kills to compensate. Otherwise they only shoot me and go 1 for 1. This is a negative trade for the mafia.

In a world where Luke is town: He wants to vig me because he's sure I'm scum. He could always just...invictus me, and I can't nightkill him because of that. So why the desperation? It doesn't make sense.


In a world where I am scum: taking away luke's vig shot is actually anti-mafia. It means we'd have to use a factional kill on Luke, and he'd invictus me. That is the same 1 for 1 trade as described above. In a orld where I am mafia, I would

gladly

accept being vigged and say no more, because it would free up our factional kill to be used on someone else! Getting vigged would give scum an extra kill from invictus. That's a win for the mafia.

In a world where I am town (aka this one!): I don't care if I am killed by luke because I think he's scum and I get to take him down with me. I point it out and leave reads on the way out.


Anyway, for real, I am finished with this engagement. There is no further ground to tread. I will gladly discuss my reads on other players instead.

[Gammagooey]

@Luke - Again, you don't have to answer this right away b/c you're low on posts

but if Dunn flips scum, isn't that a pretty good reason to not vig/Invictus gorilla? Considering that he would be right about at least your reasons for finding Dunn-town being bad, if not (assuming you're town) your actual alignment? It feels like you're going all-in on gorilla scum even when a Dunn-scum flip objectively makes him much less likely to be scum.

[fireisredsir]

@Luke - Again, you don't have to answer this right away b/c you're low on posts

but if Dunn flips scum, isn't that a pretty good reason to not vig/Invictus gorilla? Considering that he would be right about at least your reasons for finding Dunn-town being bad, if not (assuming you're town) your actual alignment? It feels like you're going all-in on gorilla scum even when a Dunn-scum flip objectively makes him much less likely to be scum.

this is actually a very good point and if luke is scum it may be TMIing dunn as town

gorilla paired with dunn makes not much sense, and luke says that he is willing to elim dunn as long as he still gets to shoot gorilla after??

the only way i can see that statement making any sense as town is if he is 100% deadset on gorilla scum and wants to shoot him out no matter what. but then why be okay with a dunn elim? in that world he should be fighting hard to lim someone else because he should think dunn is town. and if he thinks dunn could be scum, then why would he still want to 100% shoot gorilla? it sounds like he already knows what dunn will flip

[fireisredsir]

in fact there's an even stronger reason for dunn to not be partnered with gorilla in a luke town world

if he was he would never have offered to pair with luke on gorilla

i feel like that's something that should be in the forefront of luke's mind???

[Lukewarm]

Gogin back to Gamma's 1991. I kinda breezed past this earlier, because I have been so furiously typing responses to other things lol

@Lukewarm I made a gorilla towncase a couple days back to R&R - I don't need a full rebuttal or anything but what did you think of that at the time? And what do you think of me this game day?

I looked back at it just now, and my main reaction is :shrug:

Spoiler: Response to your actual points in the case

Not really sure what about the things that you called out would make him more likely to be town.

His response to Kovu's reads list seems pretty innocuous.

Not sure what distinction you are drawing between the way he voted Lava as town pushing vs scum pushing in the way that he did it.

And the last point was that he did not omgus Meuh, and instead completely dismissed her case as "bad and insubstantial." I don't know why you would expect that from town, but not scum. If anything, the way that he has comepletely dismissed points feels to me like a discreditting tactic then genuine engagement. That is a large part of what pushed me into being so sure he is scum. He felt more focused on discrediting me, then looking at what I was saying. So seeing him do the exact same thing to meuh, if anything, makes me more sure that he is scum

As for you, I am having a hard time recalling any real posts from you off the top of my head. That is likely in part because there are more people alive in this game then I can keep straight in my head (I totally forget Fey was even in this game until she checked back in at one point). As such, my read on you is nearly non-existent one way or the other.

I don't have time to dig through much of your iso atm, but your 1905 is a decent jumping off point for what I want to bug you about
My view of you+gorilla around then is that gorilla thinks your Dunn read is bad and mostly unjustified, and you're scumreading gorilla b/c you think that based on what he's saying about your opinion of Dunn, you think it'd make more sense from an outside perspective that Dunn would be white-knighting you or trying to pocket you, not that you two would be partners together. Is that close to correct for you?

This is part of it, but not exactly. It has felt like literally every point that I have made since revealing that I was a pr, he has not been looking at genuinely. Not looking at my points and reasons really. Instead, every thing I have said, from reasons I suspected him, to reasons I suspected Mala, to reasons I suspected Cakez, to reasons I got town pings from Dunn. Everything. He has been focused on responding in a way to dismiss.

It feels like he is more focused on discrediting everything that I have to say about the game, then to actually look at me and sort me. And I don't think that it is just because he is a tunneled townie, because he has been doing it since before he started positioning himself as "certain" that I am scum.

It is almost an opposite thought to what I had about Cakez. In that I simply did not believe Cakez's town read on me to be genuine. And now I don't believe Gorilla's scum read on me to be genuine. (and in contrast, i did feel like fire's suspicions on me were genuine and dunn's town read on me was genuine). Looking at how people approach forming reads on me is something that I focus on when developing reads.

The bits about calling me Dunn's partner, instead of me being pocketed or me white knighting dunn fed into those thoughts, and aligned with the idea that he is not genuinely looking at me, and is more focused on keeping me under suspicion and discrediting me.

I get your viewpoint there I think that from what you've said that you think that if Dunn is posting specifically towards you that you'd be town he's trying to convince instead of his scumpartner. But from gorilla's POV if it seems like you're letting Dunn off the hook easily for what gorilla sees as a bad reason to townread him, is it that outlandish for him to think you're potentially scum w/ Dunn because of it? Dunn directing his posts towards you in a way that feels like it's directed towards a potential town-you I feel like is a lot easier to see from your perspective than it is an outside one.

Also let me know if the wording of the above is confusing and I can try to rephrase it, but I think I got across at least the gist of what I mean.
Also also I think you've got like...maybe 15-30 posts left for today before you hit reserves? So if you want to wait until you're responding to something else and add that in that's fine too, I would very much prefer to not have a surprise literal last day before deadline replacement to deal with.