Open 853 - PYP X/Y S_S [game over!]

[Wallflower]

I mean, it’s kind of a moot point anyway because I need to die regardless

[implosion]

On n1, she jk’d her top sr which was Math but scum are going to logically think, Ausuka is suddenly going to jk her top tr?

There is 0 reason to assume Ausuka would automatically behave the same n1 and n2. N1, no one had claimed. N2, multiple relevant power roles had claimed.

Besides, Harley, you may think this way, but there is no guarantee scum thinks about night actions the same way as you do. The fact that I think it's something scum could have considered, and Aristeia thinks Ausuka should sometimes JK her, means that it's entirely possible whoever scum is would think that way.

i doctored ausuka last night

i think ausuka should always have some probability to jk me so scum never have a clean shot there

Well what do you know @Wallflower and @Implosion, my theory was spot on and I bet scum thought so too.

I don't know why you're quoting this like it's a "i'm right and you're wrong" post. It doesn't contradict anything I've said. I never said Aristeia shouldn't doctor Ausuka. Aristeia definitely should have 100% doctored Ausuka last night. What I'm saying is that Ausuka should have had some probability of jailkeeping Aristeia, and as a result, it's possible that scum decided (incorrectly) to shoot Ausuka.

[Titus]

Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

Or no one picked it

[Titus]

We leash the active vigs.
Roden visits one of the targets to confirm vigs are accurate and shooting in PoE.
Doc heals either JK or Roden. #wifom

Pools for vigs decided based on flip.
If we get a scumflip, doc must heal jk.

[Titus]

Enchant flipping scum confirms HQ and Ari as town in 95% of scenarios. Enchant's not likely to be shot and cannot be vigged.

StD Wallflower and myself to be vigged as VTs if Enchant town. Vig StD as priority.

If Enchant scum, jail me. Vig Wallflower and StD.

StD flip confirms missing 1shot vig claim.
We'd have certain roles confirmed not one shot vig reducing PoE.

[Aristeia]

we have one active vig in HQ[Gamma already shot]

there's no need for a voyeur to make sure HQ shoots someone because that someone will die and flip

Voyeur is like p useless, I see no reason not to park on Ausuka forever

[Aristeia]

I think Gamma might be conftown on the basis of being one shot vig unless the scum team shot HQ & Enchant both on Night 1 and failed twice but that seems like a pretty fringe thing to happen

[Aristeia]

I am assuming Gamma vig'd Mathblade?

[implosion]

Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

Or no one picked it

"no one picked it" is my second option; the point is that if no one picked it, then there is some role that no one picked, so scum will have gotten a fakeclaim. Meaning either they got draft cop/watcher as a fakeclaim and opted not to use it, or a PR claim is fakeclaiming. Both perfectly possible, but worth mentioning.

[Aristeia]

Enchant	BP
Ausuka	JK
Harley Quinn	N3 Vig/Venge
Bellaphant	tracker
Gamma Emerald	1-shot vig/PGO
implosion	UB/Rolecop
Wallflower	BP
Aristeia	Doctor
humaneatingmonkey	goon (could have picked anything)
Titus	n3 vig/Venge
Dwlee99	n3 vig
Roden	Voyeur
Save The Dragons	1-shot vig
MathBlade	vt

mmm if there's a fake claim it would have to be Voyeur or UB/Rolecop right? Am I reading this correctly?

[implosion]

HQ hasn't claimed between n3 vig and vengeful yet, correct? So we don't know she's a vig.

Doc heals either JK or Roden. #wifom

Nah, Roden's role is almost useless. Jailkeeper is by a wide margin the strongest role we have - Ari should protect Ausuka without wifoming, and Ausuka is the one who WIFOMs choices. Of course scum may not even want to shoot Ausuka given that I might be a UB.

[implosion]

mmm if there's a fake claim it would have to be Voyeur or UB/Rolecop right? Am I reading this correctly?

If there is a scum taking advantage of their fakeclaim, it couldn't be HQ or Gamma, who I believe are both doubly confirmed. It could be Enchant if scum with Wallflower, but somewhat unlikely. It could be Ausuka if scum with Bellaphant, even more unlikely. Or it could be me, you or Roden, all of whom are the only one claiming their role pair.

[Wallflower]

I feel like the whole concept of a fakeclaim isn’t really that relevant because scum imo are just as likely (probably more likely tbh) to actually just be the role that they’re claiming (except mafia instead of town)

[Harley Quinn]

On n1, she jk’d her top sr which was Math but scum are going to logically think, Ausuka is suddenly going to jk her top tr?

There is 0 reason to assume Ausuka would automatically behave the same n1 and n2. N1, no one had claimed. N2, multiple relevant power roles had claimed.

Besides, Harley, you may think this way, but there is no guarantee scum thinks about night actions the same way as you do. The fact that I think it's something scum could have considered, and Aristeia thinks Ausuka should sometimes JK her, means that it's entirely possible whoever scum is would think that way.

i doctored ausuka last night

i think ausuka should always have some probability to jk me so scum never have a clean shot there

Well what do you know @Wallflower and @Implosion, my theory was spot on and I bet scum thought so too.

I don't know why you're quoting this like it's a "i'm right and you're wrong" post. It doesn't contradict anything I've said. I never said Aristeia shouldn't doctor Ausuka. Aristeia definitely should have 100% doctored Ausuka last night. What I'm saying is that Ausuka should have had some probability of jailkeeping Aristeia, and as a result, it's possible that scum decided (incorrectly) to shoot Ausuka.

Because I don’t think we have scumteam who played against wncon and I find it extremely interesting that you’re trying as hard as you are seriously arguing that it’s more logical to flip a slot that is far more likely to be town than the slot that is extremely likely to be mech guiltied.

[Harley Quinn]

Also worth saying: given draft cop/watcher wasn't claimed, either scum got it, or scum got either it or some other role as a fakeclaim with their informed modifier.

Or no one picked it

I think that any reasonably intelligent scumteam is either going to pick draft cop or role cop, because based off claims, we have a massively stacked town and and extremely weak scumteam mechwise.

Town got jk, doc so no rb etc, so while possible, not terribly likely. Based off most people’s solve we have 2 goons and a scum bp as the team and I don’t see that as terribly likely.

[Harley Quinn]

we have one active vig in HQ[Gamma already shot]

there's no need for a voyeur to make sure HQ shoots someone because that someone will die and flip

Voyeur is like p useless, I see no reason not to park on Ausuka forever

Who did Gamma vig?

[Harley Quinn]

I am assuming Gamma vig'd Mathblade?

Oh right. yeah makes sense.

[Harley Quinn]

Enchant	BP
Ausuka	JK
Harley Quinn	N3 Vig/Venge
Bellaphant	tracker
Gamma Emerald	1-shot vig/PGO
implosion	UB/Rolecop
Wallflower	BP
Aristeia	Doctor
humaneatingmonkey	goon (could have picked anything)
Titus	n3 vig/Venge
Dwlee99	n3 vig
Roden	Voyeur
Save The Dragons	1-shot vig
MathBlade	vt

mmm if there's a fake claim it would have to be Voyeur or UB/Rolecop right? Am I reading this correctly?

I’m so glad you’re in this game. I hard tr Roden so I believe his voyeur claim but I actually think that the category of UB/RC is believable but scum is far more likely to pick role cop > UB and vice versa.

[Harley Quinn]

HQ hasn't claimed between n3 vig and vengeful yet, correct? So we don't know she's a vig.

Doc heals either JK or Roden. #wifom

Nah, Roden's role is almost useless. Jailkeeper is by a wide margin the strongest role we have - Ari should protect Ausuka without wifoming, and Ausuka is the one who WIFOMs choices.

Of course scum may not even want to shoot Ausuka given that I might be a UB.

Why wouldn’t scum want to acquire jk? That’s a powerful role for scum to have?

In a red Wallflower and green Enchant world, you are my pick for remaining scum.

[Bellaphant]

What Harley is saying makes Sense, but I think doesn't considers all the variables of what scum might have picked, scums position in the order, etc. Like, noone expects pick one to be Bp

I want wallflower.today for sure.

P-edit I was surprised at how many people picked jk!!

[Ausuka]

it's sort of "more logical" for scum to shoot Ari than Ausuka, but in reality it's a wifom 50/50. This is how any doc/jk setup works if they're both town - scum are forced to 50/50 shooting the doc vs the jailkeeper, while the jailkeeper 50/50s jailkeeping the doc or someone else.

This is not to say I think wallflower is a bad lim, though. I need to think more on that but probably not a bad lim.

It's true that I should always consider jailing ari but I wouldn't call it 50/50? Like I'm not saying it's impossible scum took the risk but it does seem more likely it's just wallflower

Honestly I don't have many things that ~stand out~ as scummy about her play except she's sort of been blending in and I feel like those players arguably flip red more than people I actively scumread

That being said I have actually been wrong about both of the flips so far so like... if someone like Ari has a case we shouldn't lim wallflower I am open to listening

I was going to make a readslist since my reads have changed but uh idk maybe as long as two scum are alive I should be a bit more private about my reads I guess?? So that scum can't guess who I'll jail

My one-scum-jails will be based on consensus reads anyway. So if we get a red lim on wallflower I'm jailing enchant. If we get a red lim on anyone else I'm jailing wallflower. (Act as though the last post I made talking about this at night-start is the current situation, obviously)

[Ausuka]

I feel like the whole concept of a fakeclaim isn’t really that relevant because scum imo are just as likely (probably more likely tbh) to actually just be the role that they’re claiming (except mafia instead of town)

I sort of agree with this I guess. Informed provides some flexibility to scum in terms of claims but I don't think anyone is particularly likely to have used it, it's obviously a possibility and something we should take into account but don't think we can practically speculate on this is what I'm trying to say.

I think the funniest world is that it's Wallflower/Titus and all 3 scum actually picked large numbers but Ari was town

[Ausuka]

Actually correct that to 'Upon a red flip I jail Enchant, if it's enchant I jail Wallflower'

Jailing enchant is the priority if I can since he's confirmed not ascetic and a BP IC would be pretty cool

[Ausuka]

I think the funniest world is that it's Wallflower/Titus and all 3 scum actually picked large numbers but Ari was town

This or it's implosion/wallflower, implo shot me last night, and now implosion has to correctly explain to us that scum could have shot me to save his buddy

[Ausuka]

Since the day has ended earlier than I expected both days so far, I want to take the chance to talk to HQ

HQ, you're either venge or n3 vig, I know you don't want to clarify but like. Obviously if we were to jail and vig the same person that would be a problem. Since I'm the jailkeeper I think my action upon a town lim should be kept private, basically