Mini 2273: Science Diagrams That Look Like Shitposts 2 [END]

[Crescent]

so it's elsa/gibus. elsa reacted emotional to corwin vote. gibus only started to mount a defense now, waaaaay after elsa-attack. i can see scum elsa, but voting gibus is..... safer? maybe?

Crescent talks about Elsa claming 28 minutes after gibus and how that's not enough time, thing is elsa only contested gibus claim way after both claims so elsa culd've claimed(using redacted to play safe) and later mounbted gibus attack. Elsa/Gera team and way less likely Elsa/Vivax and others.


But..... ergh.... gibus feels green and elsa feel bliase these past few pages, except when socliding corwin, but i know im eira, i err, so chances ae my vote's still goin gibus rather than else.

I'm going both ways on Gibus. Yes, it's an improvement. It looks better on him than his previous behavior... But it also kind of feels... Flaily a little? Like the rolestopper thing for example had a giant hole in it from the start. It kind feels like he's trying to find meta reasons to go after Elsa instead of play reasons.

[Elsa Jay]

It was less the time and more the claim had to be entirely premediated early on.

I went back over Elsa's claim and did find something interesting. For some reason I remember her reacting way more harshly to me than she did (Was it someone else? There's basically nothing in her reaction to me), but there's something even better:

Because if [Redacted] is either Doctor or Detective or possibly for scum's Roleblocker I'm not outting that shit until they kill me and see it on my card.

I'm not giving anymore hints on what it actually is.

This is a mere 10 posts after her claim in response to getting pressed, which is a direct as hell crumb, though she apparently never mentions this crumb specifically on day 3. Considering Elsa could

not

have known at the time a Jack with protective powers would flip, this is a pretty direct hint to why town Elsa would trust Gibus here. The specific fact that a different protection flipped could not have been part of a premeditated scum plan. Without that, Elsa's claim doesn't really do any significant harm to Gibus no matter what she does.

Fun fact I did also mention that crumb day 3.

But yeah I might as well out it since appearantly all the other PRs are dead. I enable a Roleblocker. Hence why I believed in the Doctor-Checker claim. I was kinda hoping to die last night instead to end scum having it but if only two Protectives are alive I have to reason to hide it now.

[Eiralox]

but if elsa is pr then evasiveness D1 can be warranted for survival's sake. Gibus rn is going after elsa but isn't doing game solving from what i've seen. same with vuvax tbh.

if gibus started hunting elsa's scum partner along with bringing a rebuttal to the case i wuldve felt better.

but no, we got elsa leading us in hunting gibus partner and gibus just now coming back to counter a major claim elsa had made days ago, so right now yeah imma wait and see.

[Crescent]

one thing that worried me yesterday when walking was that scum! Elsa also wouldn't want a gibus launch, rather a misluanch D3, then maybe a misslaunch D4 and when gibus finally swings eazy scum victory.

Where have her votes been today?

Vivax, which looked like an easy mislaunch, and went to -1 before I cooled it off.
Not_Mafia, who town have wanted to self-destruct on all game.

She's the one pushing the mislaunch to have the gibus fight tomorrow.

i'm considering this and that's why a gibus launch today would make me happy.

the thing for me is...case building. els might not be fully logical but their attack on gibus/N_M and gibus/eira is brave.

would scum elsa do this? maybe.

one can say that elsa calling Gibus/N_M Gibus/Eira is Elsa protecting either Gera or Vivax for when things go ball's up but idk.

if we launch gibus and it's a doc swing we'll be more certain about elsa.

NM is a totally natural partner for Gibus here, so I wouldn't particularly call that "brave".

But I did get some "testing the waters" vibes from the way she was probing at you, though it could also have been paranoia. I said right at the start of the day I had some towards you.

One interesting fact though: Elsa and Gera have never voted for each other the entire game. Time to dig into some isos.

Day 1: Gera votes me and refuses to unvote ever. Awesome pro-town stuff.
Elsa votes Alex, Owen, Gibus, and Owen

Day 2: Gera spends a very long time on Vivax before switching to Gibus
Also Day 2: Elsa spends a very long time on Corwin before switching to Gibus
Also Day 2: Elsa jumps from Gibus to Vivax, where Gera just was
Also Day 2: Both Gera and Elsa end on BBT

Day 3: Elsa starts on Vivax, jumps to NM, where Gera has sat basically all day.

Gera basically never addresses Elsa all game outside of simple one-liners or in other people's posts that quote her. I would say he never actually pressures or scrutinizes her in any way.

Elsa never meaningfully talks about Gera on day 1.
Elsa lists Gera as one of the (many) wagons she'll accept on day 2, but never gives a single palpable reason why
She references him a couple of times day 3, but never gives any actual arguments based on him. Shoves him in a possible team with Gibus for no apparent reason


As much as I brought up that Gibus/NM haven't really like, addressed each other at all, Elsa and Gera have a ton of vote overlap for two players who have barely acknowledged the other's existence.

[Crescent]

It was less the time and more the claim had to be entirely premediated early on.

I went back over Elsa's claim and did find something interesting. For some reason I remember her reacting way more harshly to me than she did (Was it someone else? There's basically nothing in her reaction to me), but there's something even better:

Because if [Redacted] is either Doctor or Detective or possibly for scum's Roleblocker I'm not outting that shit until they kill me and see it on my card.

I'm not giving anymore hints on what it actually is.

This is a mere 10 posts after her claim in response to getting pressed, which is a direct as hell crumb, though she apparently never mentions this crumb specifically on day 3. Considering Elsa could

not

have known at the time a Jack with protective powers would flip, this is a pretty direct hint to why town Elsa would trust Gibus here. The specific fact that a different protection flipped could not have been part of a premeditated scum plan. Without that, Elsa's claim doesn't really do any significant harm to Gibus no matter what she does.

Fun fact I did also mention that crumb day 3.

But yeah I might as well out it since appearantly all the other PRs are dead. I enable a Roleblocker. Hence why I believed in the Doctor-Checker claim. I was kinda hoping to die last night instead to end scum having it but if only two Protectives are alive I have to reason to hide it now.

That's not really referencing the crumb so much as it is explaining why trusting Gibus made sense.

[Eiralox]

the Alex kill immediately pointed to elsa scum due to alex being main sus on elsa D1 and D2. so this might mean scum wanted alex kill to sus elsa, not knowing he was vig.

the fact that gibus said, they might heal eira, cres, or alex, pref eira and then chose cres after i crumbed i'm not vig..... well now.

if scum suspected alex was vig this might mean scum! gibus is trying to get elsa to heal crescent and not eira, cos gibus gonna pref heal eira.

both claim 2 heal cres, none heal alex, alex shot.

so....... if cres was second obvious choice, then gibus stating their gonna heal eira might shift elsa to cres heal.

and because at this point i havent crumbed i'm not vig(which maybe i shouldna done but at this point i was trusting gibus for toffee unvote) maybe scum! gibus and poss. vivax thought I was vig, so to get me gibus crumbs they gonna heal me so that means they shift elsa off healing me.

just a theory.

[Eiralox]

@Crescent ill reply when i can

[Crescent]

but if elsa is pr then evasiveness D1 can be warranted for survival's sake. Gibus rn is going after elsa but isn't doing game solving from what i've seen. same with vuvax tbh.

if gibus started hunting elsa's scum partner along with bringing a rebuttal to the case i wuldve felt better.

but no, we got elsa leading us in hunting gibus partner and gibus just now coming back to counter a major claim elsa had made days ago, so right now yeah imma wait and see.

This is part of why I said it kinda feels "flaily". He feels like he's trying to find game meta reasons to attack Elsa's claim, but he isn't going after Elsa's play.


There is a strong case for Elsa/Gera and I had to drag him out just to name Gera as the most likely partner, but he didn't put actual work into it.

[Crescent]

the Alex kill immediately pointed to elsa scum due to alex being main sus on elsa D1 and D2. so this might mean scum wanted alex kill to sus elsa, not knowing he was vig.

the fact that gibus said, they might heal eira, cres, or alex, pref eira and then chose cres after i crumbed i'm not vig..... well now.

if scum suspected alex was vig this might mean scum! gibus is trying to get elsa to heal crescent and not eira, cos gibus gonna pref heal eira.

both claim 2 heal cres, none heal alex, alex shot.

so....... if cres was second obvious choice, then gibus stating their gonna heal eira might shift elsa to cres heal.

and because at this point i havent crumbed i'm not vig(which maybe i shouldna done but at this point i was trusting gibus for toffee unvote) maybe scum! gibus and poss. vivax thought I was vig, so to get me gibus crumbs they gonna heal me so that means they shift elsa off healing me.

just a theory.

Alex was a strong kill regardless of who is scum - I'm going to NAI that one. Alex is probably also who I would've killed as scum last night. I think there's a decent chance it was just a lucky shot in hitting the vig.

[Eiralox]

Power down so on moobile . Its less and about alex shot and more abt poss. That gibus used post to influence where elsa heals for sake of night kill.

Ive been an early adopter of elsa/gera after going over votes and d1 and its scary how well they mesh. Well see.

[Crescent]

I actually think Elsa/Gera is an even tighter connection than Gibus/NM. What's crazy is, I think a Gibus

town

flip today would actually solve the game. Gera is the only partner I actually like with Elsa. Refresher on potential Elsa partners:

I have no reason not to hammer either Vivax or NM
Eira is both prodded by Elsa today has no reason not to hammer NM.
Corwin makes no sense for various reasons
Elsa doesn't let the game die on Vivax or NM at -1
Gibus obviously can't be


Gera is the

only

person that makes any sense on a team with Elsa. A Gibus townflip or an Elsa scumflip outright solves the game. It could explain why Elsa is

still

resistant to a Gibus vote, and why that NM voting duo happens to be... Elsa and Gera.


I have to admit that Gibus/Vivax feels like a longshot compared to Gibus/NM, but it's still

possible

. Gibus may have just been that inactive.

[Crescent]

Power down so on moobile . Its less and about alex shot and more abt poss. That gibus used post to influence where elsa heals for sake of night kill.

Ive been an early adopter of elsa/gera after going over votes and d1 and its scary how well they mesh. Well see.

I don't like him talking about it or her responding to it. It's a wash. You don't openly discuss your actions in that situation.

[Corwinoid]

Re 2453: The problem there Cresc is that it's hard to read any interaction or lack thereof rom gera as AI because there's been so little of it lately.

> NM is a totally natural partner for Gibus here, so I wouldn't particularly call that "brave".

I don't understand how you get here, can you lay this one out for me?

[Crescent]

I swear if this town manages to survive because TWO different town were -1 on day 3 and nobody hammered that'd be nuts.

And yes, Gera essentially locked himself off of hammering Vivax by his response to NM's Vivax. Gera hammering Vivax was an outright scumclaim (like Owen's) that likely would've blown back on Elsa. The fact that he did not hammer Vivax does not do him any favors. He went in so hard against NM he couldn't possibly retract it.

[Eiralox]

Re: brave I mean the entire attack on gibus. I also mention my name cos I dont see scum elsa going so far on alimb as to pair me with gibus after my votes. Scum elsa would rather pair vivax or gera imo, along with nm.

[Crescent]

Re 2453: The problem there Cresc is that it's hard to read any interaction or lack thereof rom gera as AI because there's been so little of it lately.

> NM is a totally natural partner for Gibus here, so I wouldn't particularly call that "brave".

I don't understand how you get here, can you lay this one out for me?

NM is pretty easily the most likely partner for Gibus due to their complete lack of interactions and due to VCA. Gibus and NM have hard avoided voting for each other or really even talking about each other almost all game.

Gibus/Vivax is

theoretically possible

that Gibus was just inactive that damn long and almost accidentally bussed him.
Gibus/Gera does not feel like scum/scum based specifically on their day 2 interaction. I also think Gera is more likely to hammer Vivax as a partner with Gibus, because people were associating him more directly with Elsa.
Gibus/Eira Eira hammers NM
Gibus/You you hammer Vivax
Gibus/Me I hammer either
Gibus/Elsa lol no

[Eiralox]

But im ever wrong so at this point imma just observe. Wnna vote gibus tbh.

[Crescent]

And frankly if we pull this off it's because of the sheer discipline from this town not to make a bad early hammer that frankly I did not think this town possessed. So many teams are off the board due to lack of hammers that had ages to be performed and would've easily won the game if those players were scum and made those hammers.

[Corwinoid]

I need to go to bed tonight, I'll look at the VCA again tomorrow. The lack of interactions though isn't incredibly compelling to me. Now that I can talk about it... in the recently finished game me and BBT had a ton of interaction as the scum team (and it was the way he changed tone with me here that made me think it was a manip). I got a little handcuffed by being at critical points in both games at the same time.

A parting question though: Why didn't YOU hammer NM?

[Crescent]

But im ever wrong so at this point imma just observe. Wnna vote gibus tbh.

Gibus gives us more information as a vote. I think a Gibus scumflip almost solves the game and a Gibus townflip

does

solve the game. I cannot see any other scum pairing with Elsa other than Gera. The last time I quickvoted in a day was in a day 4 where I strongly believed the game was solved and I didn't want to give scum any chance to fight back. I would do it on both of them on a Gibus town flip.

On a scum flip, NM probably wins the game. If not him, Vivax.

Town Elsa has her reasons not to want a Gibus vote so she can survive. Scum Elsa would know a Gibus vote absolutely wrecks the scumteam.

[Eiralox]

@crescent the fact that nm unvoted vivax -1 doesnt feel scum to me. Nm offers nothing but right now viv feels scum, cant justify a vote on nm over viv/gibus


Corwin seems to be a blanket townread by many at this point

[Crescent]

I need to go to bed tonight, I'll look at the VCA again tomorrow. The lack of interactions though isn't incredibly compelling to me. Now that I can talk about it... in the recently finished game me and BBT had a ton of interaction as the scum team (and it was the way he changed tone with me here that made me think it was a manip). I got a little handcuffed by being at critical points in both games at the same time.

A parting question though: Why didn't YOU hammer NM?

Same reason I didn't vote Vivax: I didn't want to. I instead asked to make sure if

everyone

had said their peace for the day. It turns out everyone didn't.

I've wanted NM dead all game, but I felt a hammer on him there, much like a hammer on Vivax, was premature. I wasn't exasperated or emotionally unstable to the point where I was going to make that play. I

thought

about the hammer both times though.

I said it at the start of the game that all I really care about is winning. I felt those hammers were early and potentially not in town's best interests, especially Vivax's. Town felt like it was practically quitting the game and just praying on his vote. I even bought into that a little myself.

[Crescent]

@crescent the fact that nm unvoted vivax -1 doesnt feel scum to me. Nm offers nothing but right now viv feels scum, cant justify a vote on nm over viv/gibus


Corwin seems to be a blanket townread by many at this point

I think the solve is very very likely to be one of those two on a Gibus scumflip anyway.

Interesting is the reason why NM unvoted: Corwin specifically asked Elsa to unvote for him because he feared an early hammer, but NM is the one who unvoted instead. There was nothing in this that actually depicted NM was going to change his vote to anyone else.

[Corwinoid]

Corwin seems to be a blanket townread by many at this point

Well, it sucks for you guys if I'm not, but I'm the only one trying to regain town cohesion and get people reactivated in this game at the moment also which really wouldn't play towards my win condition as scum.

One of my scum points on Elsa is despite her positioning herself as the peacemaker and town leader she's not really been doing either.

[Crescent]

To put it in more concrete self-metay teams

If the NM situation happened with 1-2 days left there's a much higher hammer him. At 4 days left I have to

really

be sure that person is scum, or really messed up in the head. I've made potentially bad hammers like that as town before when messed up in the head.