LOST (Game Over)
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PenguinPower He/Him.peng
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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wowShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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7 seconds
ok I see youShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
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Save The Dragons He/HimProtection unnecessaryHe/Him
- Protection unnecessary
- Protection unnecessary
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- Location: WA, USA
Last edited by Save The Dragons on Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.-
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The toad Goon
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Rad heMafia Scumhe
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So the opposite is the... inverse gambler's fallacy, and we should go with that instead? I'm not a stats guy so feel free to man-splain this for meIn post 171, Dwlee99 wrote:
That's gambler's fallacyIn post 169, Rad wrote:
Eventually you'd expect that heavy lean to equalize, yeah? So... shouldn't we lean town on him if we're going to draw conclusions based on rate of scum?In post 168, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I actually have no idea why we're wagoning Cephrir BUT
He is probably the ONLY player on the site who rolls scum more frequently then I do
so it's a fine place to start
VOTE: Cephrir-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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if one dude keeps showing up in jail
it's a habit
I don't care what random.org saysShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Klick Flash Forward
- Flash Forward
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- Joined: September 1, 2012
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Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
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I think that Random.org gave Cephir just as much odds for being scum this game as anyone else, and arguing forIn post 181, Rad wrote:
So the opposite is the... inverse gambler's fallacy, and we should go with that instead? I'm not a stats guy so feel free to man-splain this for meIn post 171, Dwlee99 wrote:
That's gambler's fallacyIn post 169, Rad wrote:
Eventually you'd expect that heavy lean to equalize, yeah? So... shouldn't we lean town on him if we're going to draw conclusions based on rate of scum?In post 168, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I actually have no idea why we're wagoning Cephrir BUT
He is probably the ONLY player on the site who rolls scum more frequently then I do
so it's a fine place to start
VOTE: Cephriroragainst voting him based on his past games is silly.
I am pretty sure that Pooky made his statement as a joke, and was mainly sheeping the wagon. I think that you are the only one trying to use it as a serious argument.-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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what joke
im deadly serious about the cosmic law of unluckinessShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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- Joined: August 17, 2003
also like what's the odds a plane full of people crashes on a mysterious island anywayShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Rad heMafia Scumhe
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Haha nah, I'm not that serious right now. It's an interesting thought from a stats perspective though as applied to scum/town draws. If you want to bet on likelyhood one way, why not the other way? But yeah like you said, probably a bad approach to begin with if serious about it.In post 184, Lukewarm wrote:I am pretty sure that Pooky made his statement as a joke, and was mainly sheeping the wagon. I think that you are the only one trying to use it as a serious argument.
The Ceph wagon is interesting regardless.-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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In post 179, Save The Dragons wrote:7 Cephrir (Klick, Bellaphant, BlueBloodedToffee, Dwlee99, PookyTheMagicalBear, PenguinPower, The toad)
HALFWAY THERE
HALFWAY THERE
HALFWAY THEREShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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I'm not actually serious about anything but this is just funny LOVE YOU CEPHShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
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Depends on whether there is a mysterious psudo-diety-esque person or castrating events in order to make sure that it happened or not I guess.In post 186, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:also like what's the odds a plane full of people crashes on a mysterious island anyway
But it is probably unknowable tbh-
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PenguinPower He/Him.pengHe/Him
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PenguinPower He/Him.pengHe/Him
- .peng
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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In post 190, Lukewarm wrote:
Depends on whether there is a mysterious psudo-diety-esque person or castrating events in order to make sure that it happened or not I guess.In post 186, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:also like what's the odds a plane full of people crashes on a mysterious island anyway
But it is probably unknowable tbh
that plane crash reveal was sick nglShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
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Rad heMafia Scumhe
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Good read toad. I think you're too smart to be hyper paranoid town.In post 174, The toad wrote:Think Rad has confidence, seems more like newish town than scum imo.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: The toad-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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Rad if you vote for Ceph I promise to not call you a Busser until Day TwoShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
- Pooky got your back
- Pooky got your back
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- Joined: August 17, 2003
ok I lied about doing reads after dinner because I had a glass of wine and now im tipsy and my reads r dogshit when im tipsyShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
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- Joined: August 17, 2003
BUT I might have the willpower to not waste all night playing TFT and actually read the game if we haven't sent Cephrir out to test a raft by then.Show"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee-
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PookyTheMagicalBear Pooky got your back
- Pooky got your back
- Pooky got your back
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- Joined: August 17, 2003
I wonder if Pengy is F5 waiting for this pagetopShow"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR
"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."
-Norwee
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